Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

Is the MCG a significant advantage for Victorian sides against Interstate Teams on Grand Final Day?

  • Yes, It's a big advantage for the Vic Big Boys

    Votes: 188 66.9%
  • No. If you're good enough you'll win no matter who you play where you play

    Votes: 93 33.1%

  • Total voters
    281

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kranky al

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And we also have an entire finals series were we get no home ground advantage despite being higher on the ladder than our opponents.

Facts are this.
2017 - We get 2 home ground advantages when we wouldn't have. Advantaged.
2018 - We got 2 neutral games when we should've got home ground advantages. Disadvantaged.
2019 - All 3 finals we played had the higher team on their home ground. No change.

2017 this may have won us the flag, in 2018 it may have lost us the flag. The point is it isn't all good like some people make it out to be.
thought id collate results of the last ten years of finals.

year - vic team flies - interstate team flies

2019 3 4
2018 2 3
2017 2 6
2016 4 4
2015 2 4
2014 2 4
2013 1 6
2012 2 6
2011 1 4
2010 2 2
2009 2 2
_________

total 23 45


keep whining about having to play neutral games in victoria - an interstate team is almost twice as likely to have to fly to another state and play at a disadvantage than a victorian team in a final.


those numbers are damning

45% of the clubs do 66% of the interstate travel in finals.

the victorians make up 55% of the clubs and do 34% of the travelling for finals.

you guys are literally whining about getting a way better deal.
 
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bh90210fan

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Not 100% true. You could play say Freo week 1 and beat them to book a home prelim. But yes its most likely to be 2 non home finals.

And if a Vic team finished top 2 they may have 0 home ground advantages all the way through the finals even when winning every game. A disadvantage no non-vic team will ever face.

We don't have it worse, but there is a genuine negative to this too.
When you look at all the odds, unless a non Victorian team finishes top 2, they are cactus.
When the worst scenario you can apply is some neutral games on the road to a flag, you’ve got a pretty sweet deal.
You finished top 2 and got Collingwood at home, we finished top 2 and had to fly across the country to beat them.
 

Tiger2709

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Well they don’t get to play the match which decides the outcome of the entire season on their home deck by default each year. So no.
You knew this when your club joined and you are also happy enough with the home and away advantages you have over the MCG tenants that play on a neutral ground most of the time and are also forced to play one home game at Marvel.
 

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RichLeMonde

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thought id collate results of the last ten years of finals.

year - vic team flies - interstate team flies

2019 3 4
2018 2 3
2017 2 6
2016 4 4
2015 2 4
2014 2 4
2013 1 6
2012 2 6
2011 1 4
2010 2 2
2009 2 2
_________

total 23 45


keep whining about having to play neutral games in victoria - an interstate team is almost twice as likely to have to fly to another state and play at a disadvantage than a victorian team in a final.


those numbers are damning

44.6% of the clubs do 66% of the interstate travel in finals.

the victorians make up 65% of the clubs and do 34% of the travelling for finals.

you guys are literally whining about getting a way better deal.
This will be my last post, as I have argued with you in this before and you are literally mentally incapable of acknowledging anything outside of your preconceived views, as evidenced by your last post. I too collated the last 10 years. In these years interstate teams played oppo teams who finished lower than them and had to travel 32 times. When interstate teams finished higher, their opp only didn’t have to travel 2 times (2 Sydney derbies). In that period Vic teams finishing higher had oppo travel to play them only 22 times, and on another 23 occasions their oppo didn’t have to travel, despite finishing lower. Obviously Vic teams are punished in finals, in the long run, for finishing higher, since they only get true HGA less than 50% of the time, whereas interstaters get true HGA 94% of the time. #non-vicbias
 

Tiger2709

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thought id collate results of the last ten years of finals.

year - vic team flies - interstate team flies

2019 3 4
2018 2 3
2017 2 6
2016 4 4
2015 2 4
2014 2 4
2013 1 6
2012 2 6
2011 1 4
2010 2 2
2009 2 2
_________

total 23 45


keep whining about having to play neutral games in victoria - an interstate team is almost twice as likely to have to fly to another state and play at a disadvantage than a victorian team in a final.


those numbers are damning

44.6% of the clubs do 66% of the interstate travel in finals.

the victorians make up 65% of the clubs and do 34% of the travelling for finals.

you guys are literally whining about getting a way better deal.
Why only 10 years does it suit your agenda better than going back to the start of the AFL where in GF's it is 9 wins for interstaters v Vics against 8 wins for Vics v interstaters, aren't stats lovely malleable things.

Are you factoring in the comparable ability of each team in the various years, as your stats are fairly useless if not taking this into account?

Oh were not whining we leave that to the interstate sides that are rarely happy about something that has been in place since they became franchises.
 

kranky al

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Why only 10 years does it suit your agenda better than going back to the start of the AFL where in GF's it is 9 wins for interstaters v Vics against 8 wins for Vics v interstaters, aren't stats lovely malleable things.

Are you factoring in the comparable ability of each team in the various years, as your stats are fairly useless if not taking this into account?

Oh were not whining we leave that to the interstate sides that are rarely happy about something that has been in place since they became franchises.
what makes you think its going to get better if i go back another ten or twenty years?

the fact that victorian teams can go entire finals series without leaving melbourne where interstate teams can never do that means statistically we will always fly more than you!!

as for comparative ability..... si i have to factor it in when we play away but you dont when you play a neutral game at home?

seems like my proof is held to a higher standard than yours.


btw have you ever thought about the concept that a neutral game at home is a zero sum game?

a victorian team always wins that.
 
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kranky al

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This will be my last post, as I have argued with you in this before and you are literally mentally incapable of acknowledging anything outside of your preconceived views, as evidenced by your last post. I too collated the last 10 years. In these years interstate teams played oppo teams who finished lower than them and had to travel 32 times. When interstate teams finished higher, their opp only didn’t have to travel 2 times (2 Sydney derbies). In that period Vic teams finishing higher had oppo travel to play them only 22 times, and on another 23 occasions their oppo didn’t have to travel, despite finishing lower. Obviously Vic teams are punished in finals, in the long run, for finishing higher, since they only get true HGA less than 50% of the time, whereas interstaters get true HGA 94% of the time. #non-vicbias
how do we get true hga 94% of the time when we travel so much more?

how do we get true hga 94% of the time when the last game of finals is always an away match?

its almost like you plucked that 94% figure out of your big ‘ole

because you did.
 

RichLeMonde

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how do we get true hga 94% of the time when we travel so much more?

how do we get true hga 94% of the time when the last game of finals is always an away match?

its almost like you plucked that 94% figure out of your big ‘ole

because you did.
Mate, try and think before you post. Interstate teams played oppo who finished lower than them 34 times in the last 10 years. On 32 occasions, the oppo had to fly interstate, hence 94% true HGA. Vic teams played oppo who finished lower than them 45 times. Of those 45, on only 22 occasions did the oppo have to travel interstate. 23 times the oppo didn’t have to travel. So true HGA for Vics in less than 50% of games. Because, unlike you, I can see 2 sides of a coin, of course I acknowledge that when non-Vics finish lower than their oppo they travel more - 33 times out of 35 instances, whereas Vics finishing lower than their oppo only travelled 14 times out of 30 instances. So non-Vics get true home ground disadvantage at 94% of games where they’re lower ranked, whereas Vics get true home ground disadvantage when they’re lower ranked at just under 50%. Which, funnily enough, are basically the identical figures for true home ground advantage for both Vics and non-Vics. Meaning: it very precisely all evens out. You travel more to the exact same extent that your oppo travels more. Vics travel less to the exact same extent that their oppo travels less. And yes, of course I’ve left out GFs because they have different ticketing arrangements, which take out the biggest element of HGA - a lopsided crowd.
 

bh90210fan

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Why is it too difficult for West Coast to win from outside of the top 2 and not other clubs?
It’s difficult for all Non Victorian clubs. Teams have won just over 20% of finals interstate collectively in the afl era. Try winning two or three on the road to a flag, it’s unlikely
 

bh90210fan

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And yes, of course I’ve left out GFs because they have different ticketing arrangements, which take out the biggest element of HGA - a lopsided crowd.
It’s too inconvenient for you to include grand finals more like it. You get a huge leg up playing them on your home ground - even with different ticketing arrangements you still end up with a lopsided crowd against bigger Melbourne clubs. They were lopsided in both of your grand finals
 

kranky al

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Why is it too difficult for West Coast to win from outside of the top 2 and not other clubs?
not just wc - any interstate club.



3 and 4 fly week one - face a hostile crowd and are more likely to lose which means an extra final.

lose and then you play the winners of the bottom 4 of the 8

you are a good chance to win that as you are facing a team lower than you on your home deck

win that and week three you fly again to meet the team that came first or second.

win that and you fly again for a grand final.

so coming third or fourth means at least two flights in four weeks and worst case three flights in four weeks.

in 2017 richmond finished third and flew zero times

in 2019 richmond finished third and flew once.

for you guys finishing 3rd or 4th isnt anywhere near the disadvantage that we face

conversely finishing 1st or 2nd isnt as advantageous for you in week 1 and 3 because you are slightly more likely statistically to meet a vic team.

interstate teams really need first or second spot as it means we can play 2 or 3 finals at home and only fly for the gf.
 

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Rich01

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not just wc - any interstate club.



3 and 4 fly week one - face a hostile crowd and are more likely to lose which means an extra final.

lose and then you play the winners of the bottom 4 of the 8

you are a good chance to win that as you are facing a team lower than you

win that and week three you fly again to meet the team that came first or second.

win that and you fly again for a grand final.

so coming third or fourth means at least two flights in four weeks and worst case three flights in four weeks.

in 2017 richmond finished third and flew zero times

in 2019 richmond finished third and flew once.

for you guys finishing 3rd or 4th isnt anywhere near the disadvantage that we face

conversely finishing 1st or 2nd isnt as advantageous for you in week 1 and 3 because you are slightly more likely statistically to meet a vic team.

interstate teams really need first or second spot as it means we can play 2 or 3 finals at home and only fly for the gf.
Hold up Kranky. You’re better than this mate.

If West Coast finish third or fourth and win they fly once. Like Richmond did in 2019.

It’s the same for interstate clubs.
Finishing 3rd or 4th and playing interstate is just the same for a Vic or a non-Vic club.

Yes there are more Vic clubs but we know the advantage non Vic clubs have through the year with their home ground advantage.
 

Rich01

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Cough, cough, Richmond, cough, *2017* cough
What’s that got to do with it being difficult for clubs to win on the road, not just non Vic clubs?

2017 we played a Vic team at both of our finals ground. We were advantaged from a lower finals position.

As were our opponents in 2018 in the Qualifying and Preliminary finals. But we don’t whinge about it like some other club supporters would. It just is what it is.
 

RichLeMonde

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You get a huge leg up playing them on your home ground - even with different ticketing arrangements you still end up with a lopsided crowd against bigger Melbourne clubs. They were lopsided in both of your grand finals
Not unless you call anything other than perfect 50-50 split lopsided. Adelaide had plenty of support in '17. It wasn't lopsided like it would have been if it was a prelim in Perth, Adelaide, or Melbourne for that matter. A few neutrals probably jumped on the tigers as we were underdogs and had been in the wilderness for decades, but that is quite variable year to year and doesn't follow state allegiances. Neutrals sure as well wouldn't jump on us now. Of course it was lopsided against the Giants - they don't have any fans.
 

kranky al

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Hold up Kranky. You’re better than this mate.

If West Coast finish third or fourth and win they fly once. Like Richmond did in 2019.

It’s the same for interstate clubs.
Finishing 3rd or 4th and playing interstate is just the same for a Vic or a non-Vic club.

Yes there are more Vic clubs but we know the advantage non Vic clubs have through the year with their home ground advantage.
It’s difficult for all Non Victorian clubs. Teams have won just over 20% of finals interstate collectively in the afl era. Try winning two or three on the road to a flag, it’s unlikely

5AB55788-927B-4738-A648-0DBCCB82CBC4.png


have another look - if we come third we play away week one - if we win that we play at home week 3 - win that and we play away in the gf.

thats two finals with all crunching and bruised and sore bodies playing two weeks away in four


two weeks away is our absolute minimum.

3 weeks is more likely as in week one you are playing interstate and you are more likely to lose away than at home (statistically you have a 20% chance of winning a final interstate)

that means 3 interstate finals in 4 weeks
 

threenewpadlocks

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  • HGA is roughly two goals per AFL advantage, we can understand this statistically
  • Those two goals are divided by three main things: travel, familiarity, crowd
  • All three are somewhat muted on GF day: teams travel earlier, home teams aren't necessarily familiar with the home ground (e.g. Adelaide had played at the MCG more often than the Bulldogs in the years leading up to the '15 EF), and the crowd is muted because of corporate/AFL/MCC members going to neutrals
  • It advantages MCG tenants more than Docklands tenants, and Melbourne teams as a whole don't get as much as an overall net HGA advantage as interstate teams (interstate teams are more "familiar" with Melbourne than Melbourne teams are with each individual city, plus no real HGA against other Melbourne teams - Geelong a special case).
  • This leads to a smaller-than-typical HGA that is further absorbed by the fact that interstate teams have a greater H&A HGA
 

Final Siren

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Dude .. prove these things don't effect the players. Lol
Most of the arguments presented here have been examined pretty thoroughly by researchers already, including studies specifically into the AFL. There's lots of evidence out there.

For example: Is days breaks differential a significant factor? No and no.

Is home advantage really about crowds, not distance or travel? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
 

kranky al

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  • HGA is roughly two goals per AFL advantage, we can understand this statistically
  • Those two goals are divided by three main things: travel, familiarity, crowd
  • All three are somewhat muted on GF day: teams travel earlier, home teams aren't necessarily familiar with the home ground (e.g. Adelaide had played at the MCG more often than the Bulldogs in the years leading up to the '15 EF), and the crowd is muted because of corporate/AFL/MCC members going to neutrals
  • It advantages MCG tenants more than Docklands tenants, and Melbourne teams as a whole don't get as much as an overall net HGA advantage as interstate teams (interstate teams are more "familiar" with Melbourne than Melbourne teams are with each individual city, plus no real HGA against other Melbourne teams - Geelong a special case).
  • This leads to a smaller-than-typical HGA that is further absorbed by the fact that interstate teams have a greater H&A HGA
this interstate teams have a greater home and away hga is just tosh


we play ten games at home with a home ground advantage
we play ten games away with an away ground disadvantage

the disadvantage of interstate flights cancels the home games. the only way you can argue this is if you think its harder to fly west then east than it is to fly east then west.

we play two neutral games.

we fly almost every second week and all you have to do is ask any player whos played for a victorian and a west australian club - the flights are murder after a game. sam mitchell is a good one to ask.

the cumulative effects of flying all year wear the older players down.


your opposition are getting massages and physio - including hyperbaric pressure treatment, whilst your team is stuck squashed up in a metal coffin not getting home till the early hours if the morning doing the exact opposite of hyperbaric treatment. your injured players expecially suffer.
 

greatwhiteshark

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If there is no advantage for a Vic side playing against a non Vic side GF day then why in hell when we hear the experts predictions it is unanimous that they tip the Vic side and say because it’s at the MCG.
The bookies think the same most of the time.
Why do the majority continue year after year keep saying they are going with the Vic side because it’s at the G.
There has to be a reason behind it.
West coast could host Richmond this year 10 times and I reckon they will win 7-8 of them. Now flip it that Richmond host West Coast 10 times and you will get a similar result.
How do those odds change on GF day? They don’t which is why the majority would tip Richmond because it’s at the MCG. Doesn’t mean West Coast on that one day can’t win but the odds say they won’t for good reason.
 

kranky al

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Most of the arguments presented here have been examined pretty thoroughly by researchers already, including studies specifically into the AFL. There's lots of evidence out there.

For example: Is days breaks differential a significant factor? No and no.

Is home advantage really about crowds, not distance or travel? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
for starts you are quoting stats on english teams whose travel is a sub 1 hour flight or drive and who play on the same sized grounds with similar weather conditions.

hardly the same
 

Bungeye

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Richmond had a huge advantage at a stadium where they felt loved and worshipped after years of torment. It came to my attention that the MCG "loved" Richmond, but wasn't always loved back. It "loved" the Rance award winning display in front of a captivated audience. It "loved" the 24/7 rolling maul of ball and player (chaos footy) on the once pristine rye grass. It "loved" the drums being echoed around the collesuem giving everybody a throbbing headache(have asperin on hand, cause you'll need it!). The MCG was even loving enough to award Richmond a parting gift of two premiership cups! As you can see, it was quite the love affair between these two "giants" of the game and they deserved one another. However, Richmond has shown it's true stripes and has traded the MCG for a new, shiny Gold Coast toy to play with. If there's EVER a time a team is vulnerable against interstate teams it is now! We all know, Metricon and the Gabba don't love them back.
 

Rich01

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View attachment 962131

have another look - if we come third we play away week one - if we win that we play at home week 3 - win that and we play away in the gf.

thats two finals with all crunching and bruised and sore bodies playing two weeks away in four


two weeks away is our absolute minimum.

3 weeks is more likely as in week one you are playing interstate and you are more likely to lose away than at home (statistically you have a 20% chance of winning a final interstate)

that means 3 interstate finals in 4 weeks
Kranky you’ve spent hundreds of posts arguing the inequity in having the GF at the G. I get it. I agree with you. But I also believe that interstate sides such as yours get a leg up in playing more advantageous games with interstate clubs flying in to your home ground.
The FIXture gives your club a leg up in home and away, while if the Vic clubs are good enough to make it, if they happen to play an interstate team (not a Vic team) in the GF, they get a decent advantage in the biggest game of the year.

Reading some of the posts on here, it is quite obvious that the WA govt blew probably the only opportunity for many west Aussies to see a GF in their lifetime.

As someone who has seen a fair few live, I do believe that the club fans should be able to see their team play on the biggest stage. I feel for you Kranky. The GF should have been in WA this year and you guys would have got the leg up on both accounts. And most importantly; you could have seen it.

I’ve been critical at that govt sitting on their hands in not stumping up cash to wrest the rights off the MCG, but all they needed to do was show a little interest this year.
 

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