AFL Autopsy JLT 1: 9 point loss to Carlton

[fizzkakz]

Something to keep in mind.

Carlton's top 3 mids TOG%

Cripps 87%
Curnow 80%
Murphy 72%
And hell even Simpson spent 87% TOG.

Meanwhile at Essendon
Smith 51%
Heppell 39%
Merrett 36%
Shiel 51%

Jeez wonder why their dominant mids were on top for large parts?

None of Curnow (forward), Murphy (forward) or Simpson (back) played midfield.



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[fizzkakz]

In the 2018 JLT

- Carlton won both games
- North lost both games easy
- Gold Coast smacked Geelong
- GWS thumped Collingwood
- Fremantle killed West Coast

Incorrect. Blues went 1-1 last year. Beating the Saints and losing to the Hawks.

That said, agreed. JLT means SFA. It comes down to what the individual teams are trying to get out of the game.

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[JayDon]

It'time!

Struggled to impact at the contest - as did Langford and McGrath (although he looked great when he got it Outside).

Thanks Yoda.

 

[Beerfish]

And pardon me, who kicked the goal?

Was a genuine question. I couldn't see the 45 at first.

 

[Macca18]

I saw the word underwhelming in a previous post in this thread. That word sums last night up.

First hit out. Selection experimentation. 37 degrees. Princes Park. Against an opponent who would've went in fairly confident considering recent form against us.

But last year's hit out against Richmond also came with its fair share of excuses. And we know how the first couple of months of 2018 panned out.

We are obviously going to improve when compared to what was displayed last night... but enough to warrant the high expectations this year? I don't think so. The new 6-6-6 rules will prove difficult for us when our midfield is beaten, which it was for a majority of last night. Better sides than Carlton will exploit that in a big way as our one-on-one defending borders on laughable... and has for a number of years now.

One day somebody will satisfactorily justify Michael Hartley playing at AFL level.

 

[BrunoV]

If we are fair dinkum Zaharakis shouldn't be spending a single second at center bounces in 2019.

I can see it now. Zaharakis and Parish and McGrath and Merrett and Smith and probably Guelfi all doing really well against each other in training.

 

[BomberTime]

I thought a great hit out. Carlton had a game under its belt last week against Hawks and it showed. Cripps and Walsh were fantastic. We basically played 15 minutes of solid Essendon football and nearly won it.

The challenge will be to get the midfield dynamics right. McGrath was awesome and will go from strength to strength each year now, has ‘it’. So good to see Daniher back out there, will only be better for the run. Langford won some clearances, but has to get some mongrel in him and be stronger, still gets pushed around a bit, he’s not exactly small anymore.

The run of Saad, McKenna, Tippa, Shiel, McGrath will cut teams to ribbons, throw in Fantasia.

Stringer looks as fit as I’ve seen him. Good to see him jagging goals and pushing up the ground as well. Should have passed that last ball of to Laverde though.

All in all, a good hit out.

 

[Malifice]

That match will probably turn out to mean more to Carlton, because you can now say that there is a group of half a dozen good young players to build a side around, and while they will still have their poor periods but the group seems to be heading in the right direction from a Carlton perceptive.

Our midfield is essentially Cripps + Dow, Walsh, SPS, Setterfield. Also in the wings are Stocker and Kennedy. All 1st round picks.

Cripps isnt old, while the other 6 are 18 - 21 year olds and drafted in the last 3 drafts, with an average age of around 20, and around 15 games experience on average each. Dow and Kennedy are on around 20 games each, SPS around 40, Walsh and Stocker havent played an AFL match yet, and Setters is on 3 games (ACL).

I reckon we have the talent; now just need the development (something we traditionally havent been good at).

Still a couple of years off IMO. But its coming together (finally).

Pretty happy with the defenders and forwards we have too. Just need a quality small forward, and a young quality ruck.

Anyways, Im certainly not reading anything into the game. You blokes should comfortably finish higher than us this season. It's a JLT game, your 1st hit out, you rested most of your most important players at half time, and Essendon v Carlton matches are impossible to predict (and a bad metric by which to judge the fortunes of either clubs) in the best of circumstances. In my 44 years on this earth, I've learnt that predicting the winner of a game against you blokes is never easy. We win the ones we're not supposed to, and you blokes return the favor when we're the favorites to win. Then there are the 4 draws in the past 10 years, and a s**t ton of close games.

I dont know why that is, but whenever our two sides play, I never know which way its going to go.

It's been great for the rivalry at least!

 

[boncer34]

None of Curnow (forward), Murphy (forward) or Simpson (back) played midfield.



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Yeah must have been the other Murphy and Curnow in the centre bounces.

 

[BuffDog]

Incorrect. Blues went 1-1 last year. Beating the Saints and losing to the Hawks.

That said, agreed. JLT means SFA. It comes down to what the individual teams are trying to get out of the game.

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Not that it really matters but I’ve got Carlton as beating St Kilda 89-67 and beating the Hawks 102-97

 

[boncer34]

Incorrect. Blues went 1-1 last year. Beating the Saints and losing to the Hawks.

That said, agreed. JLT means SFA. It comes down to what the individual teams are trying to get out of the game.

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Correct again. Was the other Carlton that beat Hawthorn.

Thanks for coming onto our board, you've been great.

 

[Malifice]

Yeah must have been the other Murphy and Curnow in the centre bounces.

I cant recall either player in the middle for a centre bounce.

Murphy played on a wing and Ed Curnow up forward.

They may have moved into the centre for a few rotations, but our core midfield for the game was Cripps, SPS, Dow, Walsh and Setterfield, with Phillips and Lobbe splitting ruck duties.

 

[TheKing101]

Yeah must have been the other Murphy and Curnow in the centre bounces.

Murphy and Curnow both played majority forward. I don’t even remember either being in the middle, if they were it was only for very small stints.


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[maskmcgee]

Then there are the 4 draws in the past 10 years

When

 

[Mr_McBoogerBalls]

Worsfold is coaching that’s why he can’t adapt or change when the opposition denys how we want to play.

It took you 1 preseason game to trigger your feelings towards Worsfold.

 

[sameolds33]

Our midfield is essentially Cripps + Dow, Walsh, SPS, Setterfield. Also in the wings are Stocker and Kennedy. All 1st round picks.

Cripps isnt old, while the other 6 are 18 - 21 year olds and drafted in the last 3 drafts, with an average age of around 20, and around 15 games experience on average each. Dow and Kennedy are on around 20 games each, SPS around 40, Walsh and Stocker havent played an AFL match yet, and Setters is on 3 games (ACL).

I reckon we have the talent; now just need the development (something we traditionally havent been good at).

Still a couple of years off IMO. But its coming together (finally).

Pretty happy with the defenders and forwards we have too. Just need a quality small forward, and a young quality ruck.

Anyways, Im certainly not reading anything into the game. You blokes should comfortably finish higher than us this season. It's a JLT game, your 1st hit out, you rested most of your most important players at half time, and Essendon v Carlton matches are impossible to predict (and a bad metric by which to judge the fortunes of either clubs) in the best of circumstances. In my 44 years on this earth, I've learnt that predicting the winner of a game against you blokes is never easy. We win the ones we're not supposed to, and you blokes return the favor when we're the favorites to win. Then there are the 4 draws in the past 10 years, and a s**t ton of close games.

I dont know why that is, but whenever our two sides play, I never know which way its going to go.

It's been great for the rivalry at least!

I hadn't realised that Carlton had recruited so well. You might have missed out on Shiel but Setterfield and Lobbe will be good for you. Also Cripps is a genuine superstar and Charlie C looks like he could be too.

 

[Malifice]

When

Sorry, not the last 10 years, the last 30 years:

Since [1981], two matches (resulting in one upset victory to each team) most strongly define the rivalry between the clubs. The first was the 1993 Grand Final, when Carlton was a strong favourite to win, but was comprehensively beaten by 44 points by a notably young, inexperienced Essendon team known as the "Baby Bombers". The second was the 1999 Preliminary Final, when Essendon was an even stronger favourite to win, but was beaten by a single point by a Carlton team whose form throughout the season had been inconsistent.

Including the two key games, the three decades of the modern incarnation of the rivalry from 1981 until 2015 has seen several memorable, close games, including four drawn matches, five matches decided by a single point, and a total of 18 matches decided by one goal or less.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlton%E2%80%93Essendon_AFL_rivalry

Carlton v Essendon 1981-2015 = 4 draws, 5 games decided by a point, and 18 matches by a goal or less. Plus more upsets than I can remember (including the notable 1993 GF and 1999 PF).

We just seem to have a habit of knocking you guys over when we really shouldnt, and you guys have the same habit of returning the favor to us.

I've never felt comfortable predicting the outcome of an Essendon v Carlton match. Ladder position or form is rarely an accurate predictor of who is going to win.

The most accurate method I've discovered for tipping purposes so far has tossing footy logic out the window and flipping a coin!

 

[Atavistic]

Not that it really matters but I’ve got Carlton as beating St Kilda 89-67 and beating the Hawks 102-97

https://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/jlt-community-series/2018/2/haw-v-carl

I mean, can he really not be bothered checking?

 

[eDPS]

Attended the first half live and I’ve watched the full replay today and safe to say there have been some silly calls made here and some big overreactions.

Umpiring was biased as all hell if it was a proper game I’d be ropeable.

The calls on Langford are extremely poor he was hardly terrible and anyone who said he was too slow to react or didn’t go hard clearly watched a different bloke.

We were in cruise mode for most of the game but a lot of our players looked very sharp like Tippa, McKenna and Saad and when they where at a contest their speed and class really stood out.

We do need to give Carlton some credit though their young players have talent and they will be a better side this year, Newman is a great addition and Walsh will win the rising star easily.

 

[Maxabillions]

Attended the first half live and I’ve watched the full replay today and safe to say there have been some silly calls made here and some big overreactions.

Umpiring was biased as all hell if it was a proper game I’d be ropeable.

The calls on Langford are extremely poor he was hardly terrible and anyone he was too slow to react or didn’t go hard clearly watched a different bloke.

We were in cruise mode for most of the game but a lot of our players looked very sharp like Tippa, McKenna and Saad and when they where at a contest their speed and class really stood out.

We do need to give Carlton some credit though their young players have talent and they will be a better side this year, Newman is a great addition and Walsh will win the rising star easily.

I just watched the replay and I think we were totally cruising until we decided to turn it on for a bit and cut them to pieces. Even then it didn't look like we were trying that hard. Seems like we can turn it on when want to now.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I just watched the replay and I think we were totally cruising until we decided to turn it on for a bit and cut them to pieces. Even then it didn't look like we were trying that hard. Seems like we can turn it on when want to now.

I think some players were turned on from the first bounce; Jok for example went at the ball like a bat out of hell. Most seemed to know whether they were or weren't going to be named for round 1 and played accordingly. Which is fine, I guess.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

It took you 1 preseason game to trigger your feelings towards Worsfold.

Actually no this has been my view on Worsfold since the start.

 

[Mr_McBoogerBalls]

Actually no this has been my view on Worsfold since the start.

I meant to say "re-trigger"

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I meant to say "re-trigger"

Haha smart ass.

 

[Maxabillions]

I think some players were turned on from the first bounce; Jok for example went at the ball like a bat out of hell. Most seemed to know whether they were or weren't going to be named for round 1 and played accordingly. Which is fine, I guess.

Yeah, the players outside best 22 went harder, which seems pretty normal