Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[MadEyeEmmy]

I don’t really know what you mean by disagree, it’s not really a matter of opinion. A strategy document is not a promise, it’s a statement of intent. Our board doesn’t have a single accountant on it and neither was there any lawyers up until a few weeks ago. I don’t understand why you would so readily accept the leadership of the club failing so spectacularly to even approach achieving their own objectives.

You may well be enjoying the journey but some of us have been on that journey for 30 years and are getting fatigued.

I get you want to quibble over semantics because it makes you feel super clever. Whether it’s a promise or an intent, does that really matter? I’m surprised that with your experience on boards that you don’t recognise such a clear marketing strategy. I mean what did you expect the club to say? “We intend to finish 14th until everyone dies!”?

I don’t agree with you that we are currently failing spectacularly, to be clear.

Sorry you’re fatigued, but you don’t need to turn every thread on here into the vent thread. I’ll leave it there.

 

[doppo]

I don’t really know what you mean by disagree, it’s not really a matter of opinion. A strategy document is not a promise, it’s a statement of intent. Our board doesn’t have a single accountant on it and neither was there any lawyers up until a few weeks ago. I don’t understand why you would so readily accept the leadership of the club failing so spectacularly to even approach achieving their own objectives.

You may well be enjoying the journey but some of us have been on that journey for 30 years and are getting fatigued.

I think the matter of opinion in this case would be how much weight one should place on strategic plan. You've clearly taken it very seriously - whereas I'm sure many, myself included, thought at the time, well that's obviously a bit ambitious from the people up top, let's see how we go. (Also to keep in mind that the ALFW was included in those x number of flags, and the girls team was flying at that time, and probably would have a flag if not for COVID.)

Pragmatically in terms of why we haven't reached those lofty heights so fast - I think the club has spoken about how the loss of Mundy had a bigger impact than expected, as well as Acres, Lobb, Shultz, Logue taking off unexpectedly. You might say someone should be held to account for that, I would say Bell's sideways move away from the football department has a big part to do with that.

 

[DocT]

A reminder to all that this is the Justin Longmuir

Justin Longmuir

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thread. Realistic discussion about JLo means realistic discussion about reasonable expectations for Freo in 2024.

Those seriously suggesting that premiership/Grand Final/Top 4 were a pass mark for JLo and the club in 2024 were/are a small minority. So comparing us with the age profile of Collingwood/Brisbane and BS projections from the Freo Board 3 years ago aren't helpful to assess JLo's/Freo's 2024 performance.

Many have landed on making the 8 as a pass. If you were taking a test this would be the equivalent of scoring at least 55/100. For comparison, on this same scale, you would need 89/100 to make the GF. 55/100 is not a high mark. It is a bit above average. Are we clear about this everyone? Making the 8 is not some amazing 'reach for the stars' unrealistic expectation.

JLo is now in his 5th year of assembling his team on and off field and establishing his game plan. We have plenty of high draftees. People inside and outside the club have been talking highly of the quality of our list for several years now.

On the downside, our best 23 is younger than the average. But that is the reason that our pass mark is reasonably set at making the 8 and not higher. In 2-4 years we will have an older, more experienced list and we should be a premiership contending powerhouse. If we have an above average coach.

We need an above average coach to win a premiership. An above average coach should be able to get this developing team the finals experience it needs this year to build towards premiership challenges in coming years. Go JLo.

 

[Quazar2]

A reminder to all that this is the Justin Longmuir thread. Realistic discussion about JLo means realistic discussion about reasonable expectations for Freo in 2024.

Those seriously suggesting that premiership/Grand Final/Top 4 were a pass mark for JLo and the club in 2024 were/are a small minority. So comparing us with the age profile of Collingwood/Brisbane and BS projections from the Freo Board 3 years ago aren't helpful to assess JLo's/Freo's 2024 performance.

Many have landed on making the 8 as a pass. If you were taking a test this would be the equivalent of scoring at least 55/100. For comparison, on this same scale, you would need 89/100 to make the GF. 55/100 is not a high mark. It is a bit above average. Are we clear about this everyone? Making the 8 is not some amazing 'reach for the stars' unrealistic expectation.

JLo is now in his 5th year of assembling his team on and off field and establishing his game plan. We have plenty of high draftees. People inside and outside the club have been talking highly of the quality of our list for several years now.

On the downside, our best 23 is younger than the average. But that is the reason that our pass mark is reasonably set at making the 8 and not higher. In 2-4 years we will have an older, more experienced list and we should be a premiership contending powerhouse. If we have an above average coach.

We need an above average coach to win a premiership. An above average coach should be able to get this developing team the finals experience it needs this year to build towards premiership challenges in coming years. Go JLo.

 

[E Shed]

I think we have a pretty solid team & our gameplan is creating enough chances for us to win most games. That’s pretty good.

The elephants in the room that are becoming more & more apparent are:

1. We don’t have any goal kicking mids. No Warner, Petracca, Dusty types. Our mids are excellent at contested ball and winning clearances but none are breakaway, long & accurate kicks. Neither do any of them seem capable of resting forward & taking contested marks/roving goals. All of them go to water when they actually get a chance.

2. Our key forwards are too young to dominate against the best defenders. Treacy is good but not good enough to beat a Taylor/Weitering/May level player.
Amiss is suffering major 2nd year blues. He’s right off his game. He will be very good but he’s not at the moment.
Jackson similarly is having little influence around goals.

3. We don’t have any good small & medium forwards. Walters has declined significantly this year, Sturt is never fit, Freddy is approaching Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

32

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189cm

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92kg

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9.6

2star

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6.6

3star

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3.0

3star

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3.3

3star

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2.5

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1.0

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D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

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2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

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3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

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1.2

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levels of inconsistency, Emmett lacks skills & finesse, Banfield plays a good game every 3 or 4.
We don’t have a Rankine, Miers, Callum Brown type to take the game by the scruff. Walters was the man but seemingly no more.

Without better weapons it’s hard to see how we do more with the opportunities we do create.

 

[ignoramus]

1. We don’t have any goal kicking mids. No Warner, Petracca, Dusty types. Our mids are excellent at contested ball and winning clearances but none are breakaway, long & accurate kicks. Neither do any of them seem capable of resting forward & taking contested marks/roving goals. All of them go to water when they actually get a chance.

All three names you mention there are goal kicking mids because they spend 40% of their TOG in the F50. Until this season, all of our mids have been spending near enough their entire TOG on ball. Even then, Brayshaw was able to go at about half a goal a game in 2022 and 2023.

His terrible finishing this season notwithstanding, I think he's a decent chance to fill this need, particularly given he's starting fwd/wing a bit more this year than previous. His conversion may have been terrible across these first rounds, but he has shown a willingness to take the shot, both from general play and from set shots in the 40-50m range, which is a welcome relief from seeing the endless passing of responsibility inside F50 from so many others.

Young, obviously, is another one who has shown potential to grow in this respect.

Basically, as with your second point, I think there's scope for growth in this respect simply via the passage of time.

Grabbing a couple of dazzling small forwards is absolutely paramount, though, yes.

 

[E Shed]

Speaking of forwards there was an article about Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

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35

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197cm

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105kg

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12.2

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7.9

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4.4

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5.5

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1.9

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2.1

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D

12.7

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8.6

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4.1

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5.1

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2.1

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1.6

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7.8

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5.6

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4.2

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1.0

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2.2

5star

recently and his ex team-mates said when he first came to the club he was already a huge lad (a bit chubby) but to learn his craft he used to spend extra hours after regular training with Scarlett doing one on one drills. One the ground, in the air.

Early in the piece Scarlett used to thrash him in every contest but by the time Hawkins started to win a few contests he, not coincidentally started to take the competition apart too.

If Treacy & Amiss have that level of dedication to their craft I've no doubt they're going to turn out good players.

 

[DragoDelph]

Speaking of forwards there was an article about Tom Hawkins recently and his ex team-mates said when he first came to the club he was already a huge lad (a bit chubby) but to learn his craft he used to spend extra hours after regular training with Scarlett doing one on one drills. One the ground, in the air.

Early in the piece Scarlett used to thrash him in every contest but by the time Hawkins started to win a few contests he, not coincidentally started to take the competition apart too.

If Treacy & Amiss have that level of dedication to their craft I've no doubt they're going to turn out good players.

Treacy challenged Pearce all off season. Wanted to play on him and beat him.

 

[E Shed]

Treacy challenged Pearce all off season. Wanted to play on him and beat him.

Nice! He’s certainly playing the best footy of his career so he’s improving as we hoped he might.

 

[Freomaniac]

The players didn't execute, but as long as Jlo's been in charge, it's been such a struggle to kick goals. I've seen very little improvement since 2020. I don't even remember it being this painful under Lyon.

Jlo gets a lot right. Particularly defensively, but I'm not convinced he has the tools to get us scoring consistently and be a contending top 4 team. I would love to be proven wrong but we need to be absolutely sure we have the right coach before our core group enters their window.

I agree with the bolded and underlined bit.

Justin Longmuir gets a lot right, defeinately defensively.

I am not convinced he has the skills or the tools or the right amount of players to get us scoring well and finish in the top 4.

This is Justin Longmuirs 5th season as coach. I think he is gonna last a while. I made a prediction he was gonna last 6-8 seasons. He could be a 10 year coach and not get us to a grand final Like Ken Hinkley at Port or Brad Scott at North Melbourne.

We only had one finals win under Justin Longmuir I think he will get us one or 2 more finals wins before he is sacked and replaced.

 

[Kapow!!!]

I think we have a pretty solid team & our gameplan is creating enough chances for us to win most games. That’s pretty good.

The elephants in the room that are becoming more & more apparent are:

1. We don’t have any goal kicking mids. No Warner, Petracca, Dusty types. Our mids are excellent at contested ball and winning clearances but none are breakaway, long & accurate kicks. Neither do any of them seem capable of resting forward & taking contested marks/roving goals. All of them go to water when they actually get a chance.

2. Our key forwards are too young to dominate against the best defenders. Treacy is good but not good enough to beat a Taylor/Weitering/May level player.
Amiss is suffering major 2nd year blues. He’s right off his game. He will be very good but he’s not at the moment.
Jackson similarly is having little influence around goals.

3. We don’t have any good small & medium forwards. Walters has declined significantly this year, Sturt is never fit, Freddy is approaching Gary Rohan levels of inconsistency, Emmett lacks skills & finesse, Banfield plays a good game every 3 or 4.
We don’t have a Rankine, Miers, Callum Brown type to take the game by the scruff. Walters was the man but seemingly no more.

Without better weapons it’s hard to see how we do more with the opportunities we do create.

I will say re: point 2: Treacy has shown pretty good signs against Weitering already this season on pretty much aggression alone. It's why I've been quietly confident he'd be a gun: He has always had the tools, just needed to develop the final grab on his first touch in grabs like a lot of talls do. Unlike Amiss, he has both the aggression and perseverance to overcome strength imbalances which allow him to compete more against the big boys. Amiss is smarter and has far more natural craft but needs to develop that strength to overcome that.

It's what makes them so good together, but I'm bullish on that point.

Re: Point 1 you're bang on and it's frustrating the ever loving piss out of me with Serong and Brayshaw...but it is also something that can be added with training alone. Adding a Warner type would be an amazing and immediate fix but these are things I'm confident can be gained through natural progression.


Point 3 is the big worry. The cupboard is bare and no amount of natural progression with our current talent will fix that

 

[E Shed]

I will say re: point 2: Treacy has shown pretty good signs against Weitering already this season on pretty much aggression alone. It's why I've been quietly confident he'd be a gun: He has always had the tools, just needed to develop the final grab on his first touch in grabs like a lot of talls do. Unlike Amiss, he has both the aggression and perseverance to overcome strength imbalances which allow him to compete more against the big boys. Amiss is smarter and has far more natural craft but needs to develop that strength to overcome that.

It's what makes them so good together, but I'm bullish on that point.

Re: Point 1 you're bang on and it's frustrating the ever loving piss out of me with Serong and Brayshaw...but it is alao something that can be added with training alone. Adding a Warner type would be an amazing and immediate fix but these are things I'm confident can be gained through natural progression.


Point 3 is the big worry. The cupboard is bare and no amount of natural progression with our current talent will fix that

Simpson & Delean have both shown flashes of genuine X factor but a long way off at this stage.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Simpson & Delean have both shown flashes of genuine X factor but a long way off at this stage.

Simpson could very well be anything. He's the only player on our list who has no clear ceiling. He could be a Shuey, could be a Judd, most likely will be a Rayner but f*** you'd take that with a second round pick (i.e. not pick 1). More likely though I'd be hoping he'd be a midfield x-factor who adds to point 1 rather than point 3 for mine.

I like Delean. Has genuine Milne and Ballantyne style "tiprat" energy. I'm keen to see how he progresses, will take a few years though.

Ultimately though it's the area of the ground most worth spending great currency on to immediately improve both our short performance and long term prospects

 

[Freomaniac]

Simpson played the last 2 games.

View attachment 1987572

Delean is miles off.

Sturt won't be on the list in 12 months.

It's one thing to say 'why do we persist with guys like...' but when you look at the list, it's all we have, THere's literally nothing underneath. We are currently playing our best 6 forwards.

I am somehow gonna be gutted if Sam Sturt gets cut or traded. He doesn't get much of the ball but he is one of the most accurate set shot goal kickers in our club.

Not the spear head we hope for but that 2nd or 3rd tall that only averages 10 disposals a game and would kick 2 or 3 or even 4 goals

 

[Freomaniac]

Regardless of what you think of JL, surely we can all agree it was time for Lyon to go?

What St Kilda is dishing up atm is horrendous.

When it was the end of 2019, as much as I love Ross Lyon for his service here, it was time for him to leave Freo.

Justin Longmuir came in at the end of 2019, 75-80 percent of the rebuild was already done.

2020 was a COVID year but we gave Justin Longmuir a year to sort things out.

I wished we beaten Essendon in docklands in 2021. That means we would of taken Essendons 8th spot in the finals.

2022 was awesome. I didn't care if we didn't get top 4. 5th spot and a home elim finals win capped off a good 2022 after no finals from 2016-21.

Again, of the 23 blokes that got a finals win, 19 of them got their 1st finals win in their career even though some blokes like Griffin Logue and Blake acres left after the 2022 finals was done.

We finished in 14th. I don't think we were that bad. It was a tight ladder.

We are gonna finish 7th to 12th. Most likely 9th to 12th. Tight ladder again

 

[WilloTree]

I am somehow gonna be gutted if Sam Sturt gets cut or traded. He doesn't get much of the ball but he is one of the most accurate set shot goal kickers in our club.

Not the spear head we hope for but that 2nd or 3rd tall that only averages 10 disposals a game and would kick 2 or 3 or even 4 goals

It doesn't look good for him. The 'uncontracted' list is getting shorter and he's still on it. It also looks like Simpson has gone past him at selection.

I'd say Sturt, Tabs, Corbett and Kuek are in the most trouble.

 

[E Shed]

I am somehow gonna be gutted if Sam Sturt gets cut or traded. He doesn't get much of the ball but he is one of the most accurate set shot goal kickers in our club.

Not the spear head we hope for but that 2nd or 3rd tall that only averages 10 disposals a game and would kick 2 or 3 or even 4 goals

It would help his cause if he could stay on the park for a while. Who knows where he'd be now if he'd managed to stay fit ion his first year when he had such an impressive debut.
Finally gets fit last year, starts putting a few games together and kicking goals consistently and down he goes again.
I think there is a limit to how long you can carry guys whose bodies are constantly breaking down.

 

[MadMac]

It would help his cause if he could stay on the park for a while. Who knows where he'd be now if he'd managed to stay fit ion his first year when he had such an impressive debut.
Finally gets fit last year, starts putting a few games together and kicking goals consistently and down he goes again.
I think there is a limit to how long you can carry guys whose bodies are constantly breaking down.

Especially since our history is littered with perseverance on injury prone players. Not blaming the club as they always tried to do the right thing but the club gets just as hurt as the players’ careers

 

[Freomaniac]

How have we added top end talent to the forward line in that time (whilst losing Schultz)?

There's your answer.

If we are talking about our 2016-21 rebuild, we have traded in Many forwards, tall or small.

Shane Kersten, Cam McCarthy, Brandon Matera, Rory Lobb and Jesse Hogan.

We have drafted the likes of Lachie Schulz, Sam Sturt, Brett Bewley, Sam Swikowski, Jye Amiss and Josh Traecy.


We tried to do a quick fixt method and trade blokes from other clubs in, its didnt work out or we had mixed results.

We drafted kids.... Again Mixed results there too.

 

[Freomaniac]

The players didn't execute, but as long as Jlo's been in charge, it's been such a struggle to kick goals. I've seen very little improvement since 2020. I don't even remember it being this painful under Lyon.

Jlo gets a lot right. Particularly defensively, but I'm not convinced he has the tools to get us scoring consistently and be a contending top 4 team. I would love to be proven wrong but we need to be absolutely sure we have the right coach before our core group enters their window.

Another Long post coming up.....



the more I think about it the more convinced I am Ross Lyon would of been a decent coach in any dockers era.

I still remember the Chris Connolly era of 2002-07. Very good attacking side with Paul Medhurst and Jeff farmer as small fowards. Pavlich was our main KPF in Full forward or CHF. we have tried various blokes as 2nd talls to help Pav. I remember Troy Simmonds kicking 35 goals in 2004 spending 50 percent as a back up ruck to Sandilands and 50 percent up forward.

Midfield didnt just have players that played in finals and won finals, that midfield had players than won premierships at other clubs like Peter Bell, Des Headland and Josh carr.

Backline was out down fall. Shane Parker and Antoni Grover were solid but undersized at 186-188 cm. McPharlin and Johnson were both 193 cm and both were in their primes better than Parker and grover.

Always got frustrated losing home games in 2004 and 2005.

Had a ross lyon type coach been our coach in 2003-6, freo would of made finals each year from 2003-6.


Hell I always rated and respected Brad Scott when he coached North Melbourne from 2010 until 2019. I always respected Brad Scott getting the best out of that North Melbourne squad in that period. I reckon he could of done similar results here at the dockers.


Again.... I am not convinced Justin Longmuir will get us a flag. I see him getting us mixed results in finals. Justin Longmuir is already in his 5th year. Dockers need that 8-10 years of stability.

 

[Dockeroo]

Lover Serong and Brayshaw but I really hope the club does not bury its head in the sand and think our goal kicking woes from midfield will be solved by these two guys just naturally improving.

They won’t improve enough.
They might incrementally improve at best. That’s not enough.

We need a mid that kicks 25 a season. Andy is a 10-15 goal guy at best. He gets plenty of looks but misses too many. He is no different to Switta from set shots really.

As for Serong - a brilliant footballer but goal nous at afl level is so bad it’s almost comical. He does lots of amazing things for the team but kicking goals is not one of then. If he improves to become a 4/10 instead of a 2/10 at kicking goals will that solve our issues? Hardly.

Young - he might be ok. Once he settles into midfield a bit more he might be good for 0.5 goals a game but I don’t think he had the dynamic explosiveness of the comps best mid/forwards.

Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

would complete this midfield. Take all the pressure off Brayshaw Serong and young to kick goals regularly. Perfect age too.

 

[WilloTree]

OK. Today is the day.

If you are a JL basher and want to get stuck in (we know who you are) It's not a bad time

It was an ugly win.

Put your case forward NOW or sit down and let the rest of us discuss in reasonable terms.

 

[arsesmart]

I agree with the bolded and underlined bit.

Justin Longmuir gets a lot right, defeinately defensively.

I am not convinced he has the skills or the tools or the right amount of players to get us scoring well and finish in the top 4.

This is Justin Longmuirs 5th season as coach. I think he is gonna last a while. I made a prediction he was gonna last 6-8 seasons. He could be a 10 year coach and not get us to a grand final Like Ken Hinkley at Port or Brad Scott at North Melbourne.

We only had one finals win under Justin Longmuir I think he will get us one or 2 more finals wins before he is sacked and replaced.

What skills/tools do you think he's lacking to get the team scoring well?

 

[Mogumber]

Reckon he could do a Hardwick, and keep chugging along until he gets everyone on the same page.
He has the instruction book, just needs his players to execute his instructions.
That handball thru the corridor, and fast, is what sets us apart, Collingwoodesque at times

 

[Rhufus]

I would keep Longmuir, he does a lot right. Sack the forward coach Graham. Clearly, undisputably useless. Get a new assistant to bring some forward craft ideas to JLo. He has proven conservative but will, eventually, listen, aka the suggestion to put Young into the midfield.