LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[Mateyman]

The ABC website is now running both a preference count from the AEC website, and a projected preference count. Ramsey leads on the latter.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/grey/

Interesting. Suggests reasonably significant leakage from ALP to Libs

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Gillard never got married herself. I think she's of that old school feminist mold that says marriage came out of a paternalistic concept of owning women, so why would a modern woman take part in it?

There's similar thinking from some gay writers. Given marriage for so long has been associated with religion and religions in the past weren't very nice to gay people, then some people think gay people shouldn't want to get married. I'd have to look at her comments more closely, but she was openly atheist and I wonder if her comments about tradition could have slyly said that she was listening to those opinions, without really endorsing the conservative schools of thought.

Of course in both cases the far more popular opinion is to say that marriage is about official commitment to loving one other, and a lot of people love the feeling of stability it gives - especially when they're setting off on the long-term project of building a family.

Gillard and Rudd have both declared their support for gay marriage since leaving Parliament. Not hard to connect the dots.

Edit: Apparently Rudd declared while still Prime Minister 2.0 but I don't recall him doing anything to legislate it.

August 2013 - "During last night's leaders' debate Kevin Rudd promised that if re-elected, he would take the first steps towards making gay marriage a reality, describing it as a "mark of decency to same-sex couples".

He said a bill on the issue would come before parliament within 100 days if Labor wins another term, and his party would be allowed a conscience vote."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/gay-marriage-advocates-welcome-rudds-pledge/4880090

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Gillard and Rudd have both declared their support for gay marriage since leaving Parliament. Not hard to connect the dots.

A backbone isn't required, and is actually a hindrance, when trying to juggle the numbers required to win the leadership.

 

[The Speaker]

Interesting. Suggests reasonably significant leakage from ALP to Libs

Because NXT hasn't run before, Green manually put in preference flow of 70% from ALP to NXT, which is probably low-balling it.

EDIT: ^That is how I read the fine print on the page, but it may actually be saying that the existing preference count is being reapplied across all the booths for the prediction. In that case, I'd wait and see on more booths coming in, particularly those in Whyalla.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Of note, one of the guys i went to uni with in Matt Keogh won the seat of Burt in WA. Great news for him. Weren't best mates or anything while at uni, but always seemed like a decent guy, if somewhat opinionated (though who isn't at uni). I'm sure he'll do a great job.

 

[Mateyman]

Because NXT hasn't run before, Green manually put in preference flow of 70% from ALP to NXT, which is probably low-balling it.

I thought the predictive count was now based on the preferences in the booths which had been counted?

 

[Donakebab]

The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.

The ABC website is now running both a preference count from the AEC website, and a projected preference count. Ramsey leads on the latter.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/grey/

Yeah only just noticed the discrepancy. Surely it would make sense to run the AEC projections on the main page.

 

[The Speaker]

I thought the predictive count was now based on the preferences in the booths which had been counted?

See my edit.

 

[The Speaker]

Yeah only just noticed the discrepancy. Surely it would make sense to run the AEC projections on the main page.

The AEC doesn't use projections. It just gives away seats according to what the counted figures say, regardless of how much of the count they have done. The ABC website is using the figures already counted to extrapolate across the seat, and is therefore more likely to be close to the final result.

 

[Donakebab]

The AEC doesn't use projections. It just gives away seats according to what the counted figures say, regardless of how much of the count they have done. The ABC website is using the figures already counted to extrapolate across the seat, and is therefore more likely to be close to the final result.

Thanks for the clarification, makes sense now. In that case you'd definitely think the Grey swing will continue as preferences from the Greens and ALP are far more likely to flow to NXT than NLP.

 

[Jiska]

This is a thread on the Australian Federal election. There are other threads for world politics.

Please stay on topic.

 

[sverik25]

TCP counting for Grey is now at 12.78% and Ramsey (Lib) now has an 895 vote (3.56%) lead over Broadfoot (NXT). So it definitely can't be marked down as a Xenophon gain, yet anyway.

 

[Benny78]

He's actually right - the Rudd/Gillard government has a lasting legacy in the NBN (or at least the shell of it), in centrist workplace relations reform, and in the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The Howard legacy is the GST, a drastic lowering of political discourse in Australia (I don't know if you're old enough to remember Keating, but what a slippery slope the Howard years took us down), and pissing away the proceeds of the mining boom with tax cuts that were unsustainable and that would eventually lead us into debt when we had to pay for the infrastructure that we needed.

Don't forget gun reform. That's what Johnny tells himself these days to sleep at night.

 

[Forward Press]

TCP counting for Grey is now at 12.78% and Ramsey (Lib) now has an 895 vote (3.56%) lead over Broadfoot (NXT). So it definitely can't be marked down as a Xenophon gain, yet anyway.

Interesting to note the Greens are a virtual non-entity in Grey - only 2.5% primary vote. Also a Family First candidate there that could help decide things. Wonder how many ALP preferences are going to NXT - maybe I'm reading it wrong, but on the ABC site Labor has 22.1% and NXT 28.4% for their primary votes, doesn't that mean virtually all have to go to the NXT candidate for her to stand a chance?

 

[sverik25]

Interesting to note the Greens are a virtual non-entity in Grey - only 2.5% primary vote. Also a Family First candidate there that could help decide things. Wonder how many ALP preferences are going to NXT - maybe I'm reading it wrong, but on the ABC site Labor has 22.1% and NXT 28.4% for their primary votes, doesn't that mean virtually all have to go to the NXT candidate for her to stand a chance?

Certainly seems that way. I know Antony Green thought that the preference flow from the ALP would be 70-30 to the NXT, but it seems to be a bit stronger than that. Maybe more like 80-20.

As I write though the count has been updated again (14.44%) with the Liberal margin increasing to over 1,000 votes.

From what I can gather though, Whyalla was heavily targeted by the NXT because of the loss of industrial jobs there, and we don't have a preference count for those booths yet.

 

[Forward Press]

Certainly seems that way. I know Antony Green thought that the preference flow from the ALP would be 70-30 to the NXT, but it seems to be a bit stronger than that. Maybe more like 80-20.

As I write though the count has been updated again (14.44%) with the Liberal margin increasing to over 1,000 votes.

From what I can gather though, Whyalla was heavily targeted by the NXT because of the loss of industrial jobs there, and we don't have a preference count for those booths yet.

A 1000 vote margin is a big one, though. Think Libs will hold on here, shame because NXT with party recognition and funding would be a real force to be reckoned with and less likely to be a one-election-wonder.

 

[Belnakor]

Of note, one of the guys i went to uni with in Matt Keogh won the seat of Burt in WA. Great news for him. Weren't best mates or anything while at uni, but always seemed like a decent guy, if somewhat opinionated (though who isn't at uni). I'm sure he'll do a great job.

fat matt they used to call him. Though he has slimmed down now. Kind of surprised he managed to get through the party machine.

 

[Pie eyed]

Well in Malaysia it was part of the law.

None of this has a jot to do with the election. Start a thread for violent retribution and vigilante justice elsewhere.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

fat matt they used to call him. Though he has slimmed down now. Kind of surprised he managed to get through the party machine.

i moved to Sydney after uni so lost track of what he was doing, but reading up on him looks like he worked hard at helping others, rather than going full Union. Good on him. He's been with his wife, who looks pregnant since uni days as well.

 

[Goldenblue]

What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.

 

[Forward Press]

What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.

When in doubt, go with Antony Green.

ABC.

 

[Belnakor]

What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.

the AEC counts are crap - noone can work out where they are getting their predictions from. They have a methodology but they aren't following it.

Green explains it here: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/07/whats-going-on-with-house-seat-numbers.html

reading crikey people seemed to think some point Green was biased towards liberals lol.

Liberals should be on 73 now that Grey has essentially been called for the Liberals. That means they just need to retain their lead in the current close seats and they should get to 76.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.

there both projections, AEC projections are based on raw data, the ABC factors in overall swing required to move the seat.
not a single seat has actually been declared, as a result, the swings against the liberals favours labour in the AEC results so far.

where as the ABC is tracking whether that swing will be enough when the full count is done, as a result the ABC results favour the liberals a bit better and more likely show an accurate outcome.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.

the AEC counts are crap - noone can work out where they are getting their predictions from. They have a methodology but they aren't following it.

Go with the ABC count.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/07/whats-going-on-with-house-seat-numbers.html

 

[Maggie5]

Longman gone to ALP, bye bye Wyatt Roy. This seat has only been in Labor's hands once before.
Dutton though looks safe.