Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[10571z]

Same source who gave me the Cox Plate winner has said Warning is massive overs and flying.

I don’t pretend to know much about racing but this is someone in the know. I’d say again most horses would be “flying” who are gearing up for this race.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Same source who gave me the Cox Plate winner has said Warning is massive overs and flying.

I don’t pretend to know much about racing but this is someone in the know. I’d say again most horses would be “flying” who are gearing up for this race.

Didn't the CP winner start 2nd fave in the wet?

 

[10571z]

Didn't the CP winner start 2nd fave in the wet?

I got it at $13, went into $7.50

 

[Jugada]

He ran multiple 2nds to very nice horses as well as a great victory in Saudi Arabia. Maybe not quite as high as I stated but he is a very handy type. San Hueberto beat him who also was in the Geelong Cup. It is dumb thinking this race wasnt strong. It is very good for a G3.

San Humberto was over 100-1 for the CC

 

[Gavin Excell]

Weak edition few winning hopes

Tiger Moth
Surprise Baby
Sir Dragonet
Russian Camelot
Weight too much for AVD

Ive watched the replay a few times now - not sure what to make of RCs run in the Cox Plate from a MC perspective. He ran very well in the CP but wasnt finishing in a manner that screamed he would excel over the longer distance. Know he won the SA derby over the 2400 but that form looking questionable

The betting drift from $7 last week to $13 suggests im not alone in jumping off

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Ive watched the replay a few times now - not sure what to make of RCs run in the Cox Plate from a MC perspective. He ran very well in the CP but wasnt finishing in a manner that screamed he would excel over the longer distance. Know he won the SA derby over the 2400 but that form looking questionable

The betting drift from $7 last week to $13 suggests im not alone in jumping off

Not in my top 3 locals

 

[Gavin Excell]

Three horse race

Moth
SD
AvD?

 

[king rising]

Moth
SD
AvD?

Absolutely. Persan 14$ the place is quite appealing too

 

[Gavin Excell]

Im tempted to back AvD on account of it being the best horse out here. Moth has that lightly raced Cross Counter/Rekindling profile and is obvious danger

 

[king rising]

Im tempted to back AvD on account of it being the best horse out here. Moth has that lightly raced Cross Counter/Rekindling profile and is obvious danger

AVD draws a gate and I reckon he’s the one

 

[Scratchy05]

San Humberto was over 100-1 for the CC

He didnt have a start in the first place so of course his odds were gonna be high.

 

[Scratchy05]

Yeah horses like Ashrun and Skyward were being rated by people with NFI idea how to do international form. As I've been saying for 2 months if they were any good (they aren't!) they would have got a sufficient weight to get into the race.

Miami Bound has been utter trash ever since her Oaks win and the fact she won by 2 lengths tells you all you need to know about the race. Sound was almost fave and Shared Ambition is the most overrated import ever to land here

You are looking at every wrong race.

Miami Bound made up ground on a track very few could come from the back on. She was rated very strongly with one of the bes form analysists in the business Dan O'Sullivan giving her a 103.5 on a WFA scale. Sir Dragonet for perspective posted a 106 which is classified as 1.25L superior if I have my maths right. SHe needs it wet but on a wet deck, I'd call he a decent chance. Kah off is a major negative but I feel the horse has really been building this prep.

 

[Jugada]

He didnt have a start in the first place so of course his odds were gonna be high.

Final field emergency so odds were still relative to if he got in

 

[FallingLiefs]

Miami Bound made up ground on a track very few could come from the back on. She was rated very strongly with one of the bes form analysists in the business Dan O'Sullivan giving her a 103.5 on a WFA scale. Sir Dragonet for perspective posted a 106 which is classified as 1.25L superior if I have my maths right. SHe needs it wet but on a wet deck, I'd call he a decent chance. Kah off is a major negative but I feel the horse has really been building this prep.

Thats standard for Sir D and a huge spike from MB while numbers are cool, interpretation is key. There's not much comparison for mine between the two.

That said, yes she will be in my numbers pending price as winning chance.

 

[balmainforever]

Miami Bound made up ground on a track very few could come from the back on. She was rated very strongly with one of the bes form analysists in the business Dan O'Sullivan giving her a 103.5 on a WFA scale. Sir Dragonet for perspective posted a 106 which is classified as 1.25L superior if I have my maths right. SHe needs it wet but on a wet deck, I'd call he a decent chance. Kah off is a major negative but I feel the horse has really been building this prep.

interesting call on your thoughts on the MV track. No one made much ground in the straight. You had to be out and going by the school to be near the lead by the corner. Something that MB did. If the track is wet, no way does MB beat SirD. If it’s dry, MB is no hope.

 

[iluvparis]

Ive watched the replay a few times now - not sure what to make of RCs run in the Cox Plate from a MC perspective. He ran very well in the CP but wasnt finishing in a manner that screamed he would excel over the longer distance. Know he won the SA derby over the 2400 but that form looking questionable

The betting drift from $7 last week to $13 suggests im not alone in jumping off

Has to be sent back at Flemington to win - racing too keen up on the pace and will go full So You Think if they try that plan.

 

[iluvparis]

Absolutely. Persan 14$ the place is quite appealing too

Persan couldn't place if it started today

 

[iluvparis]

Miami Bound made up ground on a track very few could come from the back on. She was rated very strongly with one of the bes form analysists in the business Dan O'Sullivan giving her a 103.5 on a WFA scale. Sir Dragonet for perspective posted a 106 which is classified as 1.25L superior if I have my maths right. SHe needs it wet but on a wet deck, I'd call he a decent chance. Kah off is a major negative but I feel the horse has really been building this prep.

Could feature if its bottomless and by that I mean heavy 10 only. Excluding that she is nowhere near good enough and is a good play for last 5 bets.

Dan O's rating looks completely laughable to be honest given she beat Shared Amibition and Oceanex who are cats.

Then again he did have Finche's performance in last years Melbourne Cup equally as good as anything AVD has ever done so I'd say his distance ratings are massively quetionable (as is very often the case with speed fappers).

Also had ASPETAR right up there in his CP ratings for example - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

 

[Scratchy05]

Could feature if its bottomless and by that I mean heavy 10 only. Excluding that she is nowhere near good enough and is a good play for last 5 bets.

Dan O's rating looks completely laughable to be honest given she beat Shared Amibition and Oceanex who are cats.

Then again he did have Finche's performance in last years Melbourne Cup equally as good as anything AVD has ever done so I'd say his distance ratings are massively quetionable (as is very often the case with speed fappers).

Also had ASPETAR right up there in his CP ratings for example - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

Can't be right all the time but his ratings are very accurate I feel like. It didn't matter who she beat, she beat them well. She came from last to 1st on a day no one could do it. That alone is incredibly impressive. Regardless of who she beat, she beat them the har way and did it easy.

 

[Scratchy05]

Final field emergency so odds were still relative to if he got in

Yes but people are less inclined to back something regardless unless they know they have a spot. Case in point was Buckhurst. He was 41-51 as an emergency and then once Magic Wand got scratched with no deductions, he went into 26ish

 

[Scratchy05]

interesting call on your thoughts on the MV track. No one made much ground in the straight. You had to be out and going by the school to be near the lead by the corner. Something that MB did. If the track is wet, no way does MB beat SirD. If it’s dry, MB is no hope.

The way I see it, if his ratings are correct and he has her 1.25L behind at a WFA scale, then their difference in weight more than makes up that lengths, and Miami Bound seems she will handle the 3200m no issues whereas I query Sir Dragonet over that distance as he seems to be a 2000-2400m type. As I've said however, losing Kah probably hurts her chances a lot.

 

[iluvparis]

Can't be right all the time but his ratings are very accurate I feel like. It didn't matter who she beat, she beat them well. She came from last to 1st on a day no one could do it. That alone is incredibly impressive. Regardless of who she beat, she beat them the har way and did it easy.

Cherry Tortoni came from the back as did the Cox Plate winner straight after her.

And she'd have to be beating those camels easy to be any remote chance. The start prior they all flogged her - I'm guessing she doesn't repeat that performance at Flem unless its a complete swamp.

 

[iluvparis]

The way I see it, if his ratings are correct and he has her 1.25L behind at a WFA scale, then their difference in weight more than makes up that lengths, and Miami Bound seems she will handle the 3200m no issues whereas I query Sir Dragonet over that distance as he seems to be a 2000-2400m type. As I've said however, losing Kah probably hurts her chances a lot.

I think the much more likely outcome are that his ratings are incorrect in this instance. I would put the chance of her repeating that rating as extremely low to none.

Why will she handle the trip with ease but he won't?

 

[Scratchy05]

I think the much more likely outcome are that his ratings are incorrect in this instance. I would put the chance of her repeating that rating as extremely low to none.

Why will she handle the trip with ease but he won't?

Sir Dragonet has spent the last year running over 2000m and now he is expected to one and a half week back up. If it is dry (which is likely based on the current forecast), I give none of them any chance but on a wet, I'd rather a horse who is carrying 5.5kgs less when their prep has always been the Melbourne Cup as opposed to a horse where the race is almost an afterthought.

 

[Scratchy05]

Cherry Tortoni came from the back as did the Cox Plate winner straight after her.

And she'd have to be beating those camels easy to be any remote chance. The start prior they all flogged her - I'm guessing she doesn't repeat that performance at Flem unless its a complete swamp.

I agree, she needs it wet but so does Sir Dragonet. I can't see him running close on a dry.