Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[plays tall 1]

 

[iluvparis]

Punters pal...C Waller

 

[FallingLiefs]

Twilight Payment a saint, add him in the HOF.

No excuses anywhere back in the field I would have thought, very hard to do what he did.

 

[plays tall 1]

Still some money for Forgot You on Betfair today despite Busuttin saying he won’t run.

 

[Jugada]

Pretty sure those Bendigo results mean Lucan is in? Unless they backflip on Forgot You's comments yesterday, and providing the Hotham winner is still paid up.

Others can and probably will still come out above him anyway.

They have already backflipped on the Forgot You comments

 

[Jugada]

Still some money for Forgot You on Betfair today despite Busuttin saying he won’t run.

They changed their minds and got him scanned

 

[plays tall 1]

Kheir planning for Cup history if Derby favourite does the job

Forgot You could try to become the first three-year-old to win the Melbourne Cup in 80 years if he can win his way into the big race by taking out the Derby first.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Mobythepom]

I dont know how a horse can fluke a race by magically running faster than its capable of

Cobalt has been a thing hasn't it?

 

[the hypnotoad]

of the mares i'd rather tralee rose, at weights she'll get the distance better, i couldn't back verry elleegant
but i think they'll all be struggling to beat incentivise

 

[iluvparis]

of the mares i'd rather tralee rose, at weights she'll get the distance better, i couldn't back verry elleegant
but i think they'll all be struggling to beat incentivise

VE will absolutely towel a walker like Tralee Rose even with the weight. Tralee was dead set flogged in an Adelaide Cup ffs

 

[HeavyPop]

Seems like the only real value in the race ATM is how many lengths Incentivise wins by. VE is interesting @ 15s, she gets the trip based on last years Cup but isn't travelling as well as last year.

 

[the hypnotoad]

VE will absolutely towel a walker like Tralee Rose even with the weight. Tralee was dead set flogged in an Adelaide Cup ffs

still maturing and improving ... elleegant has been run ragged for several seasons, at some point she'll hit a wall ... the run behind incentivise was a sign, she'd had enough at the end on saturday ...
i don't think the cup has been her target, i don't rate her ... tralee rose has been set for this, it's almost an old-style campaign, and she gets into the field, on the improve, with no penalty ...
but we'll see ...

 

[Jugada]

List of mares to do anything in a Melbourne Cup since the Diva:

 

[the hypnotoad]

List of mares to do anything in a Melbourne Cup since the Diva:

list of years melbourne won the flag before this one ...
when was the last horse to run 8th of 10 in a toowoomba maiden and win the caulfield cup in the same year?
history is only relevant till it isn't ...
incentivise might really be a freak, in which case the rest might not matter ... but he also might be just the latest top-class stayer, and moody says the caulfield cup was his target, so he might've peaked, and moody admitted after the race he was "flat" for the first time this spring
i could be wrong about tralee rose, obviously, but the one thing i'm sure about is she's been set for one race and so far everything has fallen into place
she's more seasoned now for 3200m than when odds-on and 4th with 55.5kg in the adelaide cup
and she's always had class
she's not in verry elleegant's class, certainly not to 2400m, but she won't have to be next tuesday as long as she gets the distance and the other one doesn't

 

[mcnulty]

Mosh Music out. Great House to 24, Floating Artist to 25.

 

[FallingLiefs]

list of years melbourne won the flag before this one ...
when was the last horse to run 8th of 10 in a toowoomba maiden and win the caulfield cup in the same year?
history is only relevant till it isn't ...
incentivise might really be a freak, in which case the rest might not matter ... but he also might be just the latest top-class stayer, and moody says the caulfield cup was his target, so he might've peaked, and moody admitted after the race he was "flat" for the first time this spring
i could be wrong about tralee rose, obviously, but the one thing i'm sure about is she's been set for one race and so far everything has fallen into place
she's more seasoned now for 3200m than when odds-on and 4th with 55.5kg in the adelaide cup
and she's always had class
she's not in verry elleegant's class, certainly not to 2400m, but she won't have to be next tuesday as long as she gets the distance and the other one doesn't

My personal favourite was horses had to have 1 start on aus soil before they can win the cup. Or NH 3yo's have never won. This was era of Dunaden/Americain/Delta Blues. They then won 3 out of 4 and 3yo's 2 in a row (could have been 4)

 

[iluvparis]

List of mares to do anything in a Melbourne Cup since the Diva:

List of mares to run in a Melbourne Cup this weak since the Diva:

 

[iluvparis]

list of years melbourne won the flag before this one ...
when was the last horse to run 8th of 10 in a toowoomba maiden and win the caulfield cup in the same year?
history is only relevant till it isn't ...
incentivise might really be a freak, in which case the rest might not matter ... but he also might be just the latest top-class stayer, and moody says the caulfield cup was his target, so he might've peaked, and moody admitted after the race he was "flat" for the first time this spring
i could be wrong about tralee rose, obviously, but the one thing i'm sure about is she's been set for one race and so far everything has fallen into place
she's more seasoned now for 3200m than when odds-on and 4th with 55.5kg in the adelaide cup
and she's always had class
she's not in verry elleegant's class, certainly not to 2400m, but she won't have to be next tuesday as long as she gets the distance and the other one doesn't

Lol more seasoned - she is a 5yo mare and the Adelaide Cup was 6 months ago mate - another race she was 'set for'. And not sure how she has a 'touch of class' - she has raced in one Group 2 - the Adelaide Cup she was belted in over this very trip - the rest of her 'class' has seen her running around in low level staying events that are never good enough to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup

I'll also let you in on a little secret - I think a fair few runners will have been set for the race next Tuesday.

 

[Bombers32]

Lol more seasoned - she is a 5yo mare and the Adelaide Cup was 6 months ago mate - another race she was 'set for'. And not sure how she has a 'touch of class' - she has raced in one Group 2 - the Adelaide Cup she was belted in over this very trip - the rest of her 'class' has seen her running around in low level staying events that are never good enough to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup

I'll also let you in on a little secret - I think a fair few runners will have been set for the race next Tuesday.

There is a possibility that this year will end up a fair outlier. It’s looking like a big ‘if’………but IF Incentivise is at the end or doesn’t get 3200m and IF SM doesn’t win, the chances of a Tralee Rose, Grand Promenade or Persan being a Cup winner is far higher than it would be in other editions.

Years gone by, if the top 2 failed, these three would still be behind 10 others. Just not the case this year.

 

[iluvparis]

There is a possibility that this year will end up a fair outlier. It’s looking like a big ‘if’………but IF Incentivise is at the end or doesn’t get 3200m and IF SM doesn’t win, the chances of a Tralee Rose, Grand Promenade or Persan being a Cup winner is far higher than it would be in other editions.

Years gone by, if the top 2 failed, these three would still be behind 10 others. Just not the case this year.

Historically it is actually the opposite - when the races were this weak back in the 90s/early 000s it was quite rare for all those at the top of the market to fail and the winner normally came from the first handful in the market - I would think it would be the same this year. If they do happen to all run below par I would be looking towards horses like VE or unexposed types like Floating Artist or Sir Lucan to bob up rather than a horse like Tralee Rose - or even a huge bounce back from a horse like Delphi.

 

[onthehill24]

Lol more seasoned - she is a 5yo mare and the Adelaide Cup was 6 months ago mate - another race she was 'set for'. And not sure how she has a 'touch of class' - she has raced in one Group 2 - the Adelaide Cup she was belted in over this very trip - the rest of her 'class' has seen her running around in low level staying events that are never good enough to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup

I'll also let you in on a little secret - I think a fair few runners will have been set for the race next Tuesday.

Hopefully 24 have been set

 

[the hypnotoad]

Historically it is actually the opposite - when the races were this weak back in the 90s/early 000s it was quite rare for all those at the top of the market to fail and the winner normally came from the first handful in the market - I would think it would be the same this year. If they do happen to all run below par I would be looking towards horses like VE or unexposed types like Floating Artist or Sir Lucan to bob up rather than a horse like Tralee Rose - or even a huge bounce back from a horse like Delphi.

agree on delphi, i think he's the turnaround out of the caulfield cup ...

 

[Go_Diego_Go]

iluvparis - You are a flog. Your attitude and arrogance on this forum is why alot of members lurk. If someone has a different opinion to yours - you are like an arsonist, can of petrol in hand, in the middle of a National Park on a 45deg Summers day WITH a hot northerly blowing.

We all understand - the Sun shines outta your arse. But theres no need to goatse everyone here. Flog.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

iluvparis - You are a flog. Your attitude and arrogance on this forum is why alot of members lurk. If someone has a different opinion to yours - you are like an arsonist, can of petrol in hand, in the middle of a National Park on a 45deg Summers day WITH a hot northerly blowing.

We all understand - the Sun shines outta your arse. But theres no need to goatse everyone here. Flog.

And people who come on here and abuse long time members who , yes are opinionated and stubborn … but continually put thier hand in thier own pocket for prizes will not be tolerated
Reported
Bye

 

[Chism]

iluvparis - You are a flog. Your attitude and arrogance on this forum is why alot of members lurk. If someone has a different opinion to yours - you are like an arsonist, can of petrol in hand, in the middle of a National Park on a 45deg Summers day WITH a hot northerly blowing.

We all understand - the Sun shines outta your arse. But theres no need to goatse everyone here. Flog.

Not really needed and take it to PM next time as Paris loves those messages.