Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[plays tall 1]

i am in no way a Brae fan, in fact i think he is a total ******** but he is correct. He won a race half the distance of the cup and has only won a group 3 staying race 3 months ago. Explosive Jack won 3 derbies and got 1.5 kgs less.

He’s not right. He’s naive if he thought there’d be only a minimal impact on rating and weight.

Explosive Jack’s wins came in 3yo company, which doesn’t compare to a WFA in open company and is always rated down relatively.

I’m not sure why there’s even an argument. It’s always been the case that if you take a lowly rated horse into WFA company and win you’ll cop a huge ratings spike. Hence why most choose to go through the grades before tackling WFA.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Also just pointing out, they have the same weight vs WFA.


You have to rate the horse on their best performance or their best performances. None of us would sit here and expect a derby horse to realistically beat a Makybe stakes winner and they've rated it the same. A heavy burden for Explosive Jack.....

Personally I'd have given Incentivise more, nothing too much but its a realistic mark. They were probably unlucky that Sir D ran well as did the 2nd and third fave who had big ratings heading in. Had it not been so true to form with a longshot in the placings you could be excused for marking it lower.

 

[plays tall 1]

A bit more context, the number in brackets is the number of WFA Group 1 wins (i.e.excluding age restricted or handicap races):
- Think It Over (1) - 55.5
- Sir Dragonet (2) - 57.5
- Gold Trip (0) - 57
- Sonnyboyliston (1) -58
- Spanish Mission (0) - 57
- Verry Elleegant (5) - 57

Twilight Payment’s never won an WFA and he got 58 for his one G1 handicap win in the Cup last year.

 

[Jugada]

Bit harder for the Euros to win G1s when they don't pop up weekly like down here

 

[FallingLiefs]

Bit harder for the Euros to win G1s when they don't pop up weekly like down here

Would have much preferred the euros to be rated on OHR seemed to order them much closer on ability than weights.

Gold Trip top, Spanish Mission, twilight then SBL then the first Australian gelding/entire. It really does seem they’ve been given an imaginary penalty for a G1 win despite rating lower than non G1s.

 

[iluvparis]

He’s not right. He’s naive if he thought there’d be only a minimal impact on rating and weight.

Explosive Jack’s wins came in 3yo company, which doesn’t compare to a WFA in open company and is always rated down relatively.

I’m not sure why there’s even an argument. It’s always been the case that if you take a lowly rated horse into WFA company and win you’ll cop a huge ratings spike. Hence why most choose to go through the grades before tackling WFA.

You don’t even have to win. See Beau Rossa’s huge ratings spike just for running second in the Memsie

 

[iluvparis]

Bit harder for the Euros to win G1s when they don't pop up weekly like down here

Yup. If your good enough to win one over there your not sending it down to oz for a 2 mile handicap. I mean the Irish St Leger would have to be close to the weakest open G1 on the European Calendar and poor old Twilight has had 4 cracks at it and still hasn't been able to win one!

 

[iluvparis]

Order of entry

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-lexus-melbourne-cup-1st-acc-sept-15.pdf?la=en

 

[Jugada]

Sir Lucan and Rodrigo Diaz bets officially confetti

Dawn Patrol looks perfectly placed by Lloyd to just get in

Delphi not ideal but should find a way to win his way in if he is going good enough anyway.

Was King of Leogrance at 34 the last in from this point last year?

 

[iluvparis]

Sir Lucan and Rodrigo Diaz bets officially confetti

Dawn Patrol looks perfectly placed by Lloyd to just get in

Delphi not ideal but should find a way to win his way in if he is going good enough anyway.

Was King of Leogrance at 34 the last in from this point last year?

Yeah I think him and The Chosen One were last in last year at number #33 from the first OOE (so 6 kgs under WFA).

Young Werther almost a lock in looks very appealing if he can a few nice places in the lead up.

 

[onthehill24]

Yeah I think him and The Chosen One were last in last year at number #33 from the first OOE (so 6 kgs under WFA).

Young Werther almost a lock in looks very appealing if he can a few nice places in the lead up.

Who is definitely not running that you know of ?

 

[iluvparis]

Who is definitely not running that you know of ?

Only Sonnyboyliston and Master Of Reality are definitively not running

I'd have doubts myself over these from the top 26 - but that is just my opinion

HUNGRY HEART
KUKERARCHA
OCEAN BILLY

 

[HeathySure]

Sir Lucan and Rodrigo Diaz bets officially confetti

Dawn Patrol looks perfectly placed by Lloyd to just get in

Delphi not ideal but should find a way to win his way in if he is going good enough anyway.

Was King of Leogrance at 34 the last in from this point last year?

somones foreskin and testicles are in massive danger

 

[onthehill24]

Only Sonnyboyliston and Master Of Reality are definitively not running

I'd have doubts myself over these from the top 26 - but that is just my opinion

HUNGRY HEART
KUKERARCHA
OCEAN BILLY

Would those 3 line up in Caulfield cup ?
Or not bothering

 

[iluvparis]

Would those 3 line up in Caulfield cup ?
Or not bothering

No idea about CC to be honest - just strike me as types that wouldn't line up at Flemington

 

[plays tall 1]

Ocean Billy will be running according to reports I’ve read, assuming injury or form don’t force a change of plan.

The attrition rate may be higher this year with fewer internationals. If the internationals commit to fly out here they tend to accept for the race. The locals often baulk at the large final acceptance fee if their horse is out of form. Not only that but increased vet scrutiny may eliminate a few more than usual.

 

[Veer Right]

Yup. If your good enough to win one over there your not sending it down to oz for a 2 mile handicap. I mean the Irish St Leger would have to be close to the weakest open G1 on the European Calendar and poor old Twilight has had 4 cracks at it and still hasn't been able to win one!

How do you post this crap and keep a straight face, lmao

Form between 2017-2020...

Order of St George a double leger winner who thrashed Rekindling in the Irish St Leger trial then wins the leger on his way to forth in the arc.

Rekindling wins the Melbourne cup two starts later.

Master of Reality thrashed in the leger in front 25m out in the MC

Twilight Payment who cant even win the leger wins Melbourne Cup

Kew Gardens who ran a slashing second in the leger beat Europes best stayer Stradivarius next start.

Flag of Honour wins the leger comes out the following year with three seconds in a row to Magical who then runs second twice to Enable while that horse runs second in the arc.

Funny thing with all this said you will then say with a straight face, forms no good for Melbourne Cup.

lol funniest s**t ever on here, please keep posting!

 

[iluvparis]

How do you post this crap and keep a straight face, lmao

Form between 2017-2020...

Order of St George a double leger winner who thrashed Rekindling in the Irish St Leger trial then wins the leger on his way to forth in the arc.

Rekindling wins the Melbourne cup two starts later.

Master of Reality thrashed in the leger in front 25m out in the MC

Twilight Payment who cant even win the leger wins Melbourne Cup

Kew Gardens who ran a slashing second in the leger beat Europes best stayer Stradivarius next start.

Flag of Honour a recent leger winner comes out the following year with three seconds in a row to Magical who then runs second twice to Enable while that horse runs second in the arc.

Funny thing with all this said you will then say with a straight face, forms no good for Melbourne Cup.

lol funniest sh*t ever on here, please keep posting!

Unfortunately for you Rekindling ran in the English St Leger so perhaps check your facts first.

Recent Irish St Leger winners

-Sonnyboyliston - first G1 race contested and previously well beaten in multiple G3s
- Search For A Song - has contested 2 non Leger G1s and was beaten 13 lengths and 4.5 lengths with average SP of 30/1
- Flag Of Honour - contested 3 other G1s and was beaten 7, 1.5 (in France) and 5
- OOSG - Only decent winner in last decade
- Wicklow Brave - a hurdler lol

If you are defending the call that this is not one of the weakest open G1's in Europe it is you that has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

The race is rated #93 in the world - BELOW the Winx Stakes and only marginally ahead of the CF Orr.

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/english/international-racing/world-rankings/world100-g1-ranking.aspx

 

[Veer Right]

Unfortunately for you Rekindling ran in the English St Leger so perhaps check your facts first.

Recent Irish St Leger winners

-Sonnyboyliston - first G1 race contested and previously well beaten in multiple G3s
- Search For A Song - has contested 2 non Leger G1s and was beaten 13 lengths and 4.5 lengths with average SP of 30/1
- Flag Of Honour - contested 3 other G1s and was beaten 7, 1.5 (in France) and 5
- OOSG - Only decent winner in last decade
- Wicklow Brave - a hurdler lol

If you are defending the call that this is not one of the weakest open G1's in Europe it is you that has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

The race is rated #93 in the world - BELOW the Winx Stakes and only marginally ahead of the CF Orr.

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/english/international-racing/world-rankings/world100-g1-ranking.aspx

So i double checked and Rekindling ran in the IRISH st leger 19th AUG 2017

It's amusing how the handicapper whos job it is to rate the form put the 1-2 finishers this year at the top of the weights with 58kg, but you know better.

The 9 nine year old with his one group one victory in a handicap, the handicapper fears the most.

You are the one changing the narrative, you claim the race is no good for the MELBOURNE Cup and over and over the form recently has shown quite the opposite. Anyway thanks for todays lols

 

[iluvparis]

So i double checked and Rekindling ran in the IRISH st leger 19th AUG 2017

It's amusing how the handicapper whos job it is to rate the form put the 1-2 finishers this year at the top of the weights with 58kg, but you know better.

The 9 nine year old with his one group one victory in a handicap, the handicapper fears the most.

You are the one changing the narrative, you claim the race is no good for the MELBOURNE Cup and over and over the form recently has shown quite the opposite. Anyway thanks for todays lols

Sympathies friend - that was the Irish St Leger TRIAL. Trust me - I have forgotten more about international form than you will ever know about it.

The form has shown the opposite - you've got 1 winner who got a ride for the ages and not much else. You are picking up the wrong line - it's not the Irish St Leger that is a good guide - it's that Lloyd horses are a good guide (that way you can actually throw in Rekindling).

You realise if you win a race and get thrown massively up in the weights that makes the race a BAD trial for a handicap right?

 

[Veer Right]

Sympathies friend - that was the Irish St Leger TRIAL. Trust me - I have forgotten more about international form than you will ever know about it.

The form has shown the opposite - you've got 1 winner who got a ride for the ages and not much else. You are picking up the wrong line - it's not the Irish St Leger that is a good guide - it's that Lloyd horses are a good guide (that way you can actually throw in Rekindling).

Keep changing the narrative

 

[iluvparis]

Keep changing the narrative

How am I changing the narrative? I am just proving that you were utterly wrong to challenge me that the Irish St Leger is not one of the worst G1's in Europe and that the race is a poor cup trial.

The fact you were using Rekindling to counter both arguments says it all

 

[Jugada]

Flag of Honour coming back and losing to a horse who then lost to Enable has to be the biggest reach to find a solid form reference for the race...

I mean it's a fine race and you wouldn't mind your horse running well in it leading into the Cup but it's a fair way down the order for good races over there. The horses that win it usually aren't horses that perform out here and they get way over juiced in the weights

 

[FallingLiefs]

If winning races is bad trials you might as well tear up Incentivise tickets.

 

[Jugada]

If winning races is bad trials you might as well tear up Incentivise tickets.

Winning average races that see you get an extra 2kg in the handicap is not a great trial for mine