Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Jugada]

Lol sorry mate this is absolutely horrendous level of form analysis - moby is telling you what happened - he went awful and its his worst European run for 2.5 years. The winner won by 7 but he got beat another 9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The run was terrible and nowhere near expectations and anyone who says it was is utterly kidding themselves and just flat out making things up.

Seriously mate this is the kind of logic you must have used to view Aspetar as a high rating visitor last year. Be better - your international form standard is slipping.

He was 14/1 with 5 of the 6 horses beating him home rated higher in the market. But lets carry on like it was a hugely surprising flop. If you're going to carry on like you do though i cant be bothered

 

[iluvparis]

This is his last start in this years Lonsdale Cup where he almost chins Strad

 

[iluvparis]

He was 14/1 with 5 of the 6 horses beating him home rated higher in the market. But lets carry on like it was a hugely surprising flop. If you're going to carry on like you do though i cant be bothered

I am sorry mate but if you are going to post completely misleading form commentary - especially from international races that most would not have seen - you need to be and should be called out for it. You cannot draw any form conclusions from that race because Spanish Mission was beaten pointlessly and ran a stone below his usual performances which was the whole point of the initial discussion of the race - a point you completely muddy when you say he ran 'on expectations' as if the form conclusions are valid - which they are clearly not. If its a flop it can't be to expectations then can it.

I mean using your SP logic we should just rank horses by finishing position compared to their odds order and be done with it.

 

[iluvparis]

For further reference - racing post ratings of Spanish Mission's performances over the last two years with that Long Distance Cup highlighted. In no way should you be drawing any conclusions about Dawn Patrol form vis a vis Spanish Mission from that race (apart from the fact that DP might handle it completely bottomless better than Spanish)

114-109-112-115-103-112-106-118-117-117

 

[iluvparis]

Semi-interesting Spanish Mission piece here - his timeform rating is 121 and the writer thought he'd get 54.5-56.5. He actually has 57 which is the same weight as Incentivise who has just put up a timeform rating of 129 to win the Caulfield Cup according to Adam Blencowe. This is what I mean when I say if Incentivise stays the race is all over - he has the same weight as the second fave and timeform rate him 8 pounds superior.

Spanish Mission is a genuine Cups contender - Racing Worldwide

Despite no local stablehands being allowed to travel out to Australia with Spanish Mission for the Andrew Balding team, the data suggests that the UK import is a top-line contender for the 2021 Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. It was confirmed this morning by Racing.com that Spanish Mission would...

racingworldwide.com

 

[kicksome]

This is his last start in this years Lonsdale Cup where he almost chins Strad

just curious but what was strads odds for this race? was he expected to go well? came 2nd last

 

[iluvparis]

just curious but what was strads odds for this race? was he expected to go well? came 2nd last

Yeah he was $2.10 fave. Far and away his worst career performance.

So ran only slightly below expectations

 

[Mobythepom]

He was 14/1 with 5 of the 6 horses beating him home rated higher in the market. But lets carry on like it was a hugely surprising flop. If you're going to carry on like you do though i cant be bothered

Have to agree with Paris on this one. Can't be using the odds on the day as too much of a proxy for ability. Generally, yes of course but how do you allow for the going on the day being unsuitable, the horse having missed work on the prep, being free on the way to post etc etc. I think it's more than fair to say that for whatever the reason (going most likely) he wasn't seen to anything like his best that day....form immediately before and after bear that out.
No probs with putting up Dawn Patrol as one at a price but wouldn't be relying on the collateral with Spanish Mission alone mate.

 

[Mobythepom]

The UK racing Post guys have given Incentivise 126 for that.
To put that into perspective that is higher than Stradivarius achieved throughout it's career.
If staying 3200m nothing can get near that.

 

[Mobythepom]

Such a lofty figure drags others up to new highs too, notably Persan.
Take the winner out and Persan comes 2nd giving weight away to everything else in the first 7 home.
Given it's staying on 5th last year in a deeper renewal than this, this one offers some good hope in the places market.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The UK racing Post guys have given Incentivise 126 for that.
To put that into perspective that is higher than Stradivarius achieved throughout it's career.
If staying 3200m nothing can get near that.

Equal or better than all bar 1 of Winx's CPs I wonder why the change in opinion of late. they use to be laughably low ball anything out of Aus, for instance Addeybb's performances

 

[Mobythepom]

Equal or better than all bar 1 of Winx's CPs I wonder why the change in opinion of late. they use to be laughably low ball anything out of Aus, for instance Addeybb's performances

It's a fair point.
I'm not sure that you can compare the figures directly though. Long experience of looking at the Cup over the years has shown me that the Racing Post ratings tend to be about 4lbs lower for Australian form than UK form, i.e. if I wanted to compare the rating of a UK horse to an Aussie one, I would knock 4 off the UK rating before doing so.
That's what makes the rating given to Incentivise so surprisingly high - I would want a UK horse rating 126 +4 = 130 to be the equivalent of an Aussie 126

Yeats 126
Strad 125
Trueshan 122
Double Trigger 120
Cross Counter 119

Either they have suddenly started to value the local form more highly as you suggest, or they think Incentivise is potentially better than many of the all time greats stayers.......if it stays.

What limited evidence on the breeding front is positive, just hard to imagine (in the UK especially) that a horse can dominate form 1m2f right up to 2m but then again they are campaigned very differently.

 

[FallingLiefs]

It's a fair point.
I'm not sure that you can compare the figures directly though. Long experience of looking at the Cup over the years has shown me that the Racing Post ratings tend to be about 4lbs lower for Australian form than UK form, i.e. if I wanted to compare the rating of a UK horse to an Aussie one, I would knock 4 off the UK rating before doing so.
That's what makes the rating given to Incentivise so surprisingly high - I would want a UK horse rating 126 +4 = 130 to be the equivalent of an Aussie 126

Yeats 126
Strad 125
Trueshan 122
Double Trigger 120
Cross Counter 119

Either they have suddenly started to value the local form more highly as you suggest, or they think Incentivise is potentially better than many of the all time greats stayers.......if it stays.

What limited evidence on the breeding front is positive, just hard to imagine (in the UK especially) that a horse can dominate form 1m2f right up to 2m but then again they are campaigned very differently.

I’m sure you have seen the dosage which I got excited about earlier in the thread and tried to find you.

As for the ratings 4lbs seems reasonable. I’ve had a better look at methodology and given they are a weight based rater of horses they sort of have no chance but to give him large ratings in handicaps where he’s top weight given the likely firmness of the average CC place getter. NC, Chapala have to be around that 110 mark so your forced to put him way out in front and give him a large number. Winxs Turnbull rated highly on same premise. WFA different story they can rate them in a clump and drag the place getter ratings right down.

 

[Big Bryza]

If he doesn’t run it’s Spanish Missions to lose

Got Spanish going for a small fortune so not shattered if that were the case.

In saying that, like a number on here, the Incent CC/MC double looks like absolute jam at this stage.

 

[Mobythepom]

I’m sure you have seen the dosage which I got excited about earlier in the thread and tried to find you.

Yeah DI 0.33 CD -1.0 looks good in terms of absolute figures but enthusiasm is dampened considerably by the amount of points (data) for this horse.
It has a profile of 0-0-1-0-1.
Compare that to Almandin who was also a stamina doubt for the Cup based on track form alone....
Almandin: DI 0.43 CD -0.40 which again suggested stamina would be fine but it was derived from a points profile of 0-1-10-9-0, i.e. much more data and so more reliable.

We will soon find out if Incentivise can see out the trip well enough for it's class to bring home the bacon, but for this fella the dosage is slightly encouraging but no more that that.

Green Moon showed it was possible to be top class at 2000m and still win the Cup in recent years (DI 0.55 CD -0.21 3-0-18-13-0 - so again based on plenty of points/data).

 

[Ah12]

Yeah DI 0.33 CD -1.0 looks good in terms of absolute figures but enthusiasm is dampened considerably by the amount of points (data) for this horse.
It has a profile of 0-0-1-0-1.
Compare that to Almandin who was also a stamina doubt for the Cup based on track form alone....
Almandin: DI 0.43 CD -0.40 which again suggested stamina would be fine but it was derived from a points profile of 0-1-10-9-0, i.e. much more data and so more reliable.

We will soon find out if Incentivise can see out the trip well enough for it's class to bring home the bacon, but for this fella the dosage is slightly encouraging but no more that that.

Green Moon showed it was possible to be top class at 2000m and still win the Cup in recent years (DI 0.55 CD -0.21 3-0-18-13-0 - so again based on plenty of points/data).

What is the points (data) you are referring to? How is that ranked.

 

[Mobythepom]

What is the points (data) you are referring to? How is that ranked.

That should give you a decent understanding...

Dosage Index Explained

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yeah DI 0.33 CD -1.0 looks good in terms of absolute figures but enthusiasm is dampened considerably by the amount of points (data) for this horse.
It has a profile of 0-0-1-0-1.
Compare that to Almandin who was also a stamina doubt for the Cup based on track form alone....
Almandin: DI 0.43 CD -0.40 which again suggested stamina would be fine but it was derived from a points profile of 0-1-10-9-0, i.e. much more data and so more reliable.

We will soon find out if Incentivise can see out the trip well enough for it's class to bring home the bacon, but for this fella the dosage is slightly encouraging but no more that that.

Green Moon showed it was possible to be top class at 2000m and still win the Cup in recent years (DI 0.55 CD -0.21 3-0-18-13-0 - so again based on plenty of points/data).

To my eye, visually, I think he eats it up. Or at least 2800m and will tough out the last 400m. Im convinced its not an issue. Could run last and I wont be blaming stamina. Regression off peak more likely than distance query. When a horse goes that big, horse off it's feed uncommonly, you have to ask can he back it up at 2400 again next start let alone 3200m For me thats the bigger issue. We have no data on that. He was spelled after his tatts.

Might have a look at the maths side of his previous runs sectional breakdown but don't have much info on historic standards for vic courses.

 

[Mobythepom]

To my eye, visually, I think he eats it up. Or at least 2800m and will tough out the last 400m. Im convinced its not an issue. Could run last and I wont be blaming stamina.

A note of caution on that eye....it's worth rewatching Jameka winning the CC five years ago. It won by slightly further than Incentivise with the jockey standing up and punching the air 25m out and pulling away ever further in the last 200m. Visually pretty similar to Incentivise. Drawing away and looking like stamina would be ok for at least 2800m.
Again the dosage index was based on a small number of points but it indicated that it wouldn't stay the 3,200m and on Cup day it clearly didn't.

Factor in the stiffer nature of Flemington than Caulfield too and I'm hoping stamina won't be an issue but wouldn't be as convinced as you are.

 

[iluvparis]

Solid trolling from the plastics. I had my Zaaki bets at sports and my Incentivise bets at the TAB

 

[Ah12]

Bang! Now to put $500 back on @2.75?

 

[FFB1]

Thanks Sportsbet, have withdrawn my cups double payout and will be putting it straight into my Betfair account

 

[Slipps]

Thanks Sportsbet, have withdrawn my cups double payout and will be putting it straight into my Betfair account

I just bought a new wiz bang microwave

 

[FFB1]

Dawn Patrol won’t continue its spring campaign. Campaigner.

 

[iluvparis]

Dawn Patrol won’t continue its spring campaign. Campaigner.

Hopes for a Lloyd miracle getting smaller and smaller. Not shocked - has been awful his two runs out here