Analysis Oldest / Youngest lists, post drafts

[Meteoric Rise]

just my opinion. however;

hawks: ultra young team -> four flags -> now old list and rebuilding via recycled players

gws: very young team -> had a lot of success and consistent challenging (no premiership yet however) as the list matures

There is no sure thng the suns will improve however given how young they are and the talent in King, Lukosius, Rankine, Anderson, Rowell, Flanders, Sharp... if they hang around they are every chance.

its blindly obvious the Brisbane list is lots of talent too.



im both cases, football lists and super funds its a correct statement

the cats are the most successful club since the bombers 80-00 period, they are the exception imo largely living on the dynasty with cheap father son selections. However they have a quite mature list too these days.

The next few season will be very interesting for the Tigers, Hawks, Cats, WCE, Pies - we will see how the FurnTHeory stacks up

The Furn2 theory is not a theory at all. It is a factual table that shows over that still relevant 9 year period at least, that on average younger lists do not improve to the point of their average expectancy surpassing the older lists within 7 seasons. However....multiple premiers from the last 13 seasons, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond, all seem to have started with younger lists. So mostly having a younger list and hoping for improvement doesn’t work, but when it does, it seems that is the path to sustained success, would you agree with that statement?

 

[Marcel Proust]

The Furn2 theory is not a theory at all. It is a factual table that shows over that still relevant 9 year period at least, that on average younger lists do not improve to the point of their average expectancy surpassing the older lists within 7 seasons. However....multiple premiers from the last 13 seasons, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond, all seem to have started with younger lists. So mostly having a younger list and hoping for improvement doesn’t work, but when it does, it seems that is the path to sustained success, would you agree with that statement?

it look like a nonsensical bunch of words to me

 

[Meteoric Rise]

it look like a nonsensical bunch of words to me

Little more needs to be said then.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Little more needs to be said then.

So mostly having a younger list and hoping for improvement doesn’t work, but when it does,

 

[Tarkyn_24]

You hear the talk about hawthorn being old but
Cox, Sidebottom, Roughead, Howe, Beams, Reid, Greenwood, Mayne, Varcose, Pendlebury
is a lot of class to have to replace one day in the future

Collingwood are a very strong team [colling v wce gf, colling v gws prelim] but one wonders how long the window is open for?

I mean Reid and Cox basically compete for the one spot, Varcoe played reserves for a lot of the year, Greenwood and Mayne are both peripheral of our best 22, and Beams has his own issues that meant we got nothing out of him last year anyway.

So really we have to replace Sidey, Roughy, Howe and Pendles and one of Cox/Reid as both hardly ever play together anyway. It’s not quite as horrific when it’s spelled out like that.

 

[Scotland]

Our list is pretty old, but we won the flag in 2018 and finished 5th last year so it's not all bad news. 16-16-12-16-15 wins the last 5 seasons, we are under no illusions that we are playing the kids and just planning for 2025 or something.

Turning 30 or older this year:

Shuey (29, 201)
Naitanui (29, 166)
Redden (29, 211)
Masten (30, 215)
Schofield (30, 190)
Jetta (30, 196)
Kennedy (32, 243)
Hurn (32, 269)

Our team will look pretty different in a year or two. The SF side from this year had 5 x 200 gamers in it plus 5 players who might play their 200th games this year. That's a lot of experience to replace. But I am confident in the next core of players coming through.

In the 22-27 bracket we have Ryan, Barrass, Sheed, Yeo, McGovern, Darling, Gaff and now Kelly. Duggan didn't feature in the SF and I have no idea if and when Rioli will feature again. What remains to be seen is how good the next lot of players are. I'm a huge fan of Oscar Allen but we currently have no one 22 or under that has played 50 games so the jury is out on 6-8 players there. In a perfect world Rotham comes in and replaces Hurn, Brander comes in and replaces Kennedy, Cameron becomes as good as his brother etc. But footy isn't played in a perfect world. 10 experienced players are gone from 2017 and we were supposed to fall off a cliff then so who knows.

 

[Forward Press]

Our list is pretty old, but we won the flag in 2018 and finished 5th last year so it's not all bad news. 16-16-12-16-15 wins the last 5 seasons, we are under no illusions that we are playing the kids and just planning for 2025 or something.

Turning 30 or older this year:

Shuey (29, 201)
Naitanui (29, 166)
Redden (29, 211)
Masten (30, 215)
Schofield (30, 190)
Jetta (30, 196)
Kennedy (32, 243)
Hurn (32, 269)

Our team will look pretty different in a year or two. The SF side from this year had 5 x 200 gamers in it plus 5 players who might play their 200th games this year. That's a lot of experience to replace. But I am confident in the next core of players coming through.

In the 22-27 bracket we have Ryan, Barrass, Sheed, Yeo, McGovern, Darling, Gaff and now Kelly. Duggan didn't feature in the SF and I have no idea if and when Rioli will feature again. What remains to be seen is how good the next lot of players are. I'm a huge fan of Oscar Allen but we currently have no one 22 or under that has played 50 games so the jury is out on 6-8 players there. In a perfect world Rotham comes in and replaces Hurn, Brander comes in and replaces Kennedy, Cameron becomes as good as his brother etc. But footy isn't played in a perfect world. 10 experienced players are gone from 2017 and we were supposed to fall off a cliff then so who knows.

Yeah the cliff is approaching in 2022 but a lot of things can change in the meantime depending on which draftees or recruits suddenly find another gear. In the end even if this all ends in tears we have a flag out of it and the recruitment of players like Lewis Jetta and Jack Redden proved to be masterstrokes.

Either way with how we traded for Tim Kelly we aren't going to die wondering as we forced the window open until 2021 probably, which is when Naitanui, Hurn and Kennedy will certainly be past their peak or retired already.

 

[worldlylizard19]

Go and have a look at the team that faced the Lions in the 2004 Prelim final and you can see we built the team from homegrown talent and did not look for outside top ups (Ottens, Mooney the exceptions). In part, the nucleus of our champion team had to start out together and experience the dark days of consistent belting's and narrow defeats.
That was Bomber Thompson for you. A man who did not top up his list with mature aged has-been's from other clubs like Chris Scott does year after year (Jenkins + Steven added to the list as we speak).

That team is built from 99 and 01 when Geelong couldn't trade their picks. Everyone knows about Geelongs 99 and 01 draft but no one ever mentions the 2000 draft. Why is that? It's because Geelong made finals and then proceeded to trade out all their picks. Colbert left in 99 and Geelong finished 12th in 01 both years no one wanted to come to Geelong so they had to draft. Topping up is standard Geelong behavior.

 

[Marcel Proust]

The Furn2 theory is not a theory at all. It is a factual table that shows over that still relevant 9 year period at least, that on average younger lists do not improve to the point of their average expectancy surpassing the older lists within 7 seasons.

Its a massive sample. 18 teams times 9 years looking at 5 years ahead, covering 12 years of footy. Its the entire modern era. every finishing postion.

The hard facts are that being young makes you no more likely to improve and being old makes you no more likely to drop off.

the oldest six team in 2007 were; Fremantle, Adelaide, StKilda, Melbourne, Dogs, Essendon. This group won one flag since that time and its regarded somewhat as a miracle

the youngest six teams were; Hawthorn, Brisbane, Carlton, Port, WCE, Richmond. Seven premierships. Including 6 of the last 7...

AFL Club Lists for 2007 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

2019	Richmond	GWS Giants
2018	West Coast	Collingwood
2017	Richmond	Adelaide
2016	Western Bulldogs*	Sydney Swans
2015	Hawthorn	West Coast
2014	Hawthorn	Sydney Swans
2013	Hawthorn	Fremantle Dockers
2012	Sydney Swans	Hawthorn
2011	Geelong	Collingwood
2010	Collingwood	St Kilda
2009	Geelong	St Kilda
2008	Hawthorn	Geelong
2007	Geelong	Port Adelaide

i would argue your conclusions are misleading Being a young list does more likely to improve. As the modern era has proven.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It is true the conclusion was incorrectly stated by Furn2. The younger lists are shown by Furn2’s tables to (on average)improve their ladder positions and the older lists to (on average) drop down the ladder in the 3-7 years into the future range. I think the point Furn2 was trying to make is that despite this improvement and deterioration from the two groups, the younger lists still remained on average behind the older lists when their performance was tracked up to 7 years in the future.

Your post showing the youngest six lists in 2007 needs a little scrutiny. It does not show that a younger list is more likely to improve(than an older list.) From the youngest 6 lists you have listed in 2007, there were two premierships over the next 7 seasons, 2007 to 2013 inclusive. Hawthorn 2008, Hawthorn 2013. So over the next 7 seasons this group won less than its share of premierships when compared to the oldest 6 lists and the middle 4 lists at the time.

Your inclusion of the Richmond and West Coast premierships in 2017-2019 gives no strength at all to your conclusion in my opinion. There were only two players remaining on the Richmond list from the 2007 season who played in their 17 and 19 premierships, the 2006 draftees Riewoldt and Edwards. I think you will find a very similar story at West Coast with only Hurn and LeCras present from the list in 2007 season. So both of those clubs won their premierships with lists that were assembled almost entirely after the 2007 season.

Hawthorn 2008 premiership, despite the obligatory handful of top up players from other clubs, unarguably related to an earlier young list they had assembled. By the time you get to 2013 and beyond though, it gets more murky as to whether those premierships relate more to their earlier young list or to their policy of bringing in mature players to top up their now mature list. By the time you get to the Hawks 2015 premiership team, they have brought in 7 mature players from other clubs, also the mature aged Puopolo, and only about 7 players from their earlier young list remain. So their team is more or less made up one third players that were there in 2007, one third mature players brought in subsequently and one third new draftees after 2007.

 

[Marcel Proust]

youngest teams 7 yrs ago;

GWS - grand final, winning finals consistently
GC - unlucky with player retention
Richmond - flag x2, minor premiership
Melbourne - prelim
Adelaide - Grand final
Brisbane - minor premiership

It is true the conclusion was incorrectly stated by Furn2.

50% of young teams in my data set will win a flag may have been a more factual statement

 

[Forward Press]

Brisbane didn't win a minor premiership and Adelaide and Melbourne aren't exactly going great guns at the moment.

Not saying that your conclusion is not based on the evidence but I don't think there's any real correlation between teams truly bottoming out and sustained success 5+ years later. West Coast 2018 is also evidence that retiring a few experienced players the year before does not necessarily lead to a slide.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Brisbane didn't win a minor premiership and Adelaide and Melbourne aren't exactly going great guns at the moment.

Not saying that your conclusion is not based on the evidence but I don't think there's any real correlation between teams truly bottoming out and sustained success 5+ years later. West Coast 2018 is also evidence that dropping a few experienced players the year before does not necessarily lead to a slide.

my bad i couldnt remember the order of Geelong and Brisbane but it was very similar. the point is essentially the same, 1st 2nd on the ladder

Adelaide are an outlier due to the camp wrecking them yet still made a gf - all these 'seven years ago' / since the start of 'modern era footy' examples lead to
Meteoric Rise and his mate being widely off the mark.

Melbourne had a down season after the preliminary final but all those seasons of high draft picks and being a young team has team in a good place currently.

the eagles next few seasons will be more telling than the present in regards to the various theories here with a bunch of high class talent winding down. such as JR whom MRise forgot above

 

[swiftdog]

youngest teams 7 yrs ago;

GWS - grand final, winning finals consistently
GC - unlucky with player retention
Richmond - flag x2, minor premiership
Melbourne - prelim
Adelaide - Grand final
Brisbane - minor premiership



50% of young teams in my data set will win a flag may have been a more factual statement

Three of the six oldest teams (Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Sydney) seven years ago have shared five flags between them since then... what’s your point?

Of the other three... Geelong have been minor premiers and in the top 4 consistently. St Kilda were on the way down after being up from 04-11. And Essendon... pretty obvious outlier given what transpired there.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Three of the six oldest teams (Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Sydney) seven years ago have shared five flags between them since then... what’s your point?

Of the other three... Geelong have been minor premiers and in the top 4 consistently. St Kilda were on the way down after being up from 04-11. And Essendon... pretty obvious outlier given what transpired there.

im glad you asked; my point is 50% of the nominated youngest teams in the defined time period ... 50% of those won a flags, most multiple

some longer than the magical 7 year mark but still achieved ultimate success. If we go back to the last 7 years its a similar sort of picture.

having a young list doesn't mean you will get success in the future but it gives a better chance. in a league with tanking, drafts, the wins measurement isnt ideal premierships, grand finals, gives a better picture, i think.

Its true WCE only had a handful of their future premierships players like Kennedy and Richmond Edwards, Riewoldt but being so young also leads to future high draft pics to add to the process; Cotchin, Martin

more interesting is alludes to some teams falling off a cliff one day. but who and when? WCE? Hawk? Colingwood? Geelong? Richmond?

 

[Ambrosia]

the oldest six team in 2007 were; Fremantle, Adelaide, StKilda, Melbourne, Dogs, Essendon. This group won one flag since that time and its regarded somewhat as a miracle

the youngest six teams were; Hawthorn, Brisbane, Carlton, Port, WCE, Richmond. Seven premierships. Including 6 of the last 7...

Premiership success is a pretty high bar. I mean drop it to just making a Grand Final and 4 out of the 6 oldest sides have made it whereas only 3 of the youngest teams have.

I don't think in the age of free agency and teams not receiving first round priority picks there is an incentive to bottom out the list and be the youngest team in the comp.

 

[Scotland]

Yeah the cliff is approaching in 2022 but a lot of things can change in the meantime depending on which draftees or recruits suddenly find another gear. In the end even if this all ends in tears we have a flag out of it and the recruitment of players like Lewis Jetta and Jack Redden proved to be masterstrokes.

Either way with how we traded for Tim Kelly we aren't going to die wondering as we forced the window open until 2021 probably, which is when Naitanui, Hurn and Kennedy will certainly be past their peak or retired already.

In 2022 we'll still have:

31 Sheppard, Hutchings
30 Gaff, McGovern, Darling, Cripps
29 Yeo
28 Kelly
27 Sheed, Barrass, Rioli*
26 Duggan, Ryan

It's a decent core and contains 5 AA players. I don't expect we'll end up with much from the 2018/19 drafts but we used a lot of picks in 2016/17 and have already started getting games into players while staying competitive.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

my bad i couldnt remember the order of Geelong and Brisbane but it was very similar. the point is essentially the same, 1st 2nd on the ladder

Adelaide are an outlier due to the camp wrecking them yet still made a gf - all these 'seven years ago' / since the start of 'modern era footy' examples lead to
Meteoric Rise and his mate being widely off the mark.

Melbourne had a down season after the preliminary final but all those seasons of high draft picks and being a young team has team in a good place currently.

the eagles next few seasons will be more telling than the present in regards to the various theories here with a bunch of high class talent winding down. such as JR whom MRise forgot above

There are 18 teams now in the comp and all have been there at least 7 years. So there was in 2012 an oldest 6 clubs, a youngest 6 clubs, and a middle six clubs in terms of list age, in other words three neat subsets. There have been seven completed seasons since, 2013-19 inclusive. For the purpose of this argument, let’s say there are 4 hallmarks of success.

1. Making finals.
2. Winning any final.
3. Making a preliminary final(top 4 finish) and
4. Winning a premiership.

So rather than cherry pick chosen teams’ best seasons as you have done, let us measure your 2012 six youngest lists(Richmond, Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, GCS and Brisbane) against those four hallmarks of success in the ensuing 7 seasons, and compare to the average for each subset of 6 clubs from 2012, and see how they have gone.

	Instances of a club in our subset qualifying for finals 2013-2109 inclusive	Average per subset of 6 clubs	Instances of a club in our subset winning at least one final in a season	Average per subset of 6 clubs	Instances of a club in our subset making a preliminary final	Average per subset of 6 clubs	Instances of a club in our subset winning a Premiership	Average per subset of 6 clubs
	15 (Richmond 6, GWS 4, Adelaide 3, Brisbane 1, Melbourne 1)	18.66	11 (GWS 4, Richmond 3, Adelaide 3, Melbourne 1)	11.66	8 (Richmond 3, GWS 3, Adelaide 1, Melbourne 1)	9.33	2 (Richmond 17,19)	2.33

As you can see, the youngest 6 teams have underperformed versus AFL average against all four of these 4 hallmarks of success in the seven completed seasons after 2012.

Maybe if you use different parameters you get different results. You could probably reasonably block out the first 3 seasons whilst the younger lists develop and then measure success across the next 4 seasons and you likely get an over-representation against these hallmarks of success.

But of those six youngest clubs in 2012, over the seasons since:

- Richmond have been outrageously successful
- GWS have been strongly successful but started the period with incredible advantages that won’t recur for any club
- Adelaide have been only moderately successful all things considered
- Melbourne have completely rebuilt these list in the interim and so far been on the whole unsuccessful
- GCS have had no success by any measure and are having to again rebuild their list
- Brisbane have been on the whole unsuccessful but having rebuilt their list almost completely appear to have good prospects

So I am not sure what we are supposed to be deriving from your opening post.

 

[Forward Press]

There's just no correlation. You get teams bottoming out, reloading with youth, then succeeding. You get teams constantly remaining near the top in terms of age and games played, recruiting ready made players, then succeeding. And then of course both examples have failures.

There is more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[Giant Pete]

Does anyone have the average age of top 5 and top 10 in the b&f?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Does anyone have the average age of top 5 and top 10 in the b&f?

#worpal

 

[DanA]

I do think the average age of your top 8 players and where those top 8 sit as AFL players is more relevant. If you've got 8 elite players under 25 I'm nominating you the best list in the league regardless of who else is on it. Sooner or later a team that has amassed that sort of talent is going to click and win a premiership IMO.

 

[DanA]

There's just no correlation. You get teams bottoming out, reloading with youth, then succeeding. You get teams constantly remaining near the top in terms of age and games played, recruiting ready made players, then succeeding. And then of course both examples have failures.

There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Almost every team that has won a premiership has a core of young talented players that were drafted early and came up together. How you make that final push can be different but the underlying team is always built through the draft IMO. Brisbane (merging with Fitzroy) is probably the one exception.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Almost every team that has won a premiership has a core of young talented players that were drafted early and came up together. How you make that final push can be different but the underlying team is always built through the draft IMO. Brisbane (merging with Fitzroy) is probably the one exception.

Since the Lions triple premiership era, the above is true of multiple premiership winners(within a handful of years) Cats, Hawks, Tigers. But what about all the single flag winners in that time? Port, Swans(twice,) Eagles(twice,) Filth, Mutts? I don’t seem to recall them having such a discernible bubble of 5-6 elite players coming through together after being drafted within a 3-4 year period. I stand to be corrected.

 

[matey]

Does anyone have the average age of top 5 and top 10 in the b&f?

This year 4 of the Hawks top 6 were 24 and under.