dlanod
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- Sep 14, 2006
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- #1
After an epic crapping of the bed prior to the bye, we're back in business against the (check notes) 11th team. Eleventh? How did that happen? Hmm wins against Gold Coast twice, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Carlton have given the Saints six wins - they are yet to beat someone with more wins than them, with two thirds of their wins coming against teams 16th to 18th.
Now that's not to write off how easier their draw has been given we just lost to 18th, but this is the week to see if that loss to Carlton was a complete invalidation of our season or just a stumble by a still relatively inexperienced team who needed the break. Given we've beaten 4th, 5th, and 9th, and only lost to 6th away by a point, it seems like our form line is significantly better than the Saints on the year despite only have one more win.
Ultimately it seems like this week will boil down to a simple stat - if we kick 80+, we've won every game. If we kick less than 80, we've lost every game. Funnily enough, the Saints have only kicked 80+ three times (once was 80 on the dot), so I think that will hold true this weekend too.
That stat then plays up the important of their defense. Their defensive six against Gold Coast was a bit of a no-name fest (guys I've heard of through Supercoach only) with Nathan Brown the only household name there and although I'd argue he's definitely underrated I haven't seen how his year has gone.
However St Kilda are looking to get some handy players back after the bye (although their website is only update to date as of either May 8 or 21, depending on which date you use from it, and has Carlisle as 4-6 weeks away for example - come on guys, professionalism! Help us poor preview writers out!) with Carlisle and Hannebery making it through VFL games on the weekend, with the latter definitely tipped to come in and I suspect the former would as well.
Carlisle is definitely a bigger in than Hannebery, who looked well and truly done in his last season at Sydney, averaging less than 20 disposals for the first time since his debut year. Carlisle will be the latest in our "let's see how many times we can kick the ball down their throats" encounters, though we've been better at mitigating it this year with McStay aiming to take out those players defensively.
We don't have the same luck (though we also don't have the same negative luck in terms of players out), and though Adams and Bailey might be back I'd expect both to come through the NEAFL this week.
Most of St Kilda's wins seem to be built off domination through the middle with Membrey their busiest forward (24 goals), followed by Bruce at 13 goals and then a handful of small forwards/mids, leaving them lacking the traditional forward (Riewoldt, Gehrig or Koschitzke) they'd built around in their peak years.
Matching up on Membrey will be nice (and I'm not sure we have an obvious candidate), but the middle is where our losses and St Kilda's wins have come from. As such it's going to be vital to neutralize Marshall who's having a decent year at both racking up hitouts (don't have HTA stats, sorry) and around the ground. Martin seems like he'd be poised to take advantage of that matchup with his experience in both areas, but playing Archie this week would play into St Kilda's hands. Oscar would at least provide a presence up forward to keep Brown/Carlisle honest.
On top of that, Billings is an obvious match winner when on but given the gift we gave Cripps I have no faith we'll try to do anything fancy there. Like previous games, if Neale, Lyons and McCluggage can get their hands to the ball first we should be well on our way - but a single dominant performance can be enough to neutralize that.
Neale is the key, where if St Kilda let him get off the chain I think our team will be too mature and well-structured for St Kilda but otherwise we could struggle. If we do struggle I hope we'll at least be able to fall over the line but the loss to Carlton has shaked that faith.
Now that's not to write off how easier their draw has been given we just lost to 18th, but this is the week to see if that loss to Carlton was a complete invalidation of our season or just a stumble by a still relatively inexperienced team who needed the break. Given we've beaten 4th, 5th, and 9th, and only lost to 6th away by a point, it seems like our form line is significantly better than the Saints on the year despite only have one more win.
Ultimately it seems like this week will boil down to a simple stat - if we kick 80+, we've won every game. If we kick less than 80, we've lost every game. Funnily enough, the Saints have only kicked 80+ three times (once was 80 on the dot), so I think that will hold true this weekend too.
That stat then plays up the important of their defense. Their defensive six against Gold Coast was a bit of a no-name fest (guys I've heard of through Supercoach only) with Nathan Brown the only household name there and although I'd argue he's definitely underrated I haven't seen how his year has gone.
However St Kilda are looking to get some handy players back after the bye (although their website is only update to date as of either May 8 or 21, depending on which date you use from it, and has Carlisle as 4-6 weeks away for example - come on guys, professionalism! Help us poor preview writers out!) with Carlisle and Hannebery making it through VFL games on the weekend, with the latter definitely tipped to come in and I suspect the former would as well.
Carlisle is definitely a bigger in than Hannebery, who looked well and truly done in his last season at Sydney, averaging less than 20 disposals for the first time since his debut year. Carlisle will be the latest in our "let's see how many times we can kick the ball down their throats" encounters, though we've been better at mitigating it this year with McStay aiming to take out those players defensively.
We don't have the same luck (though we also don't have the same negative luck in terms of players out), and though Adams and Bailey might be back I'd expect both to come through the NEAFL this week.
Most of St Kilda's wins seem to be built off domination through the middle with Membrey their busiest forward (24 goals), followed by Bruce at 13 goals and then a handful of small forwards/mids, leaving them lacking the traditional forward (Riewoldt, Gehrig or Koschitzke) they'd built around in their peak years.
Matching up on Membrey will be nice (and I'm not sure we have an obvious candidate), but the middle is where our losses and St Kilda's wins have come from. As such it's going to be vital to neutralize Marshall who's having a decent year at both racking up hitouts (don't have HTA stats, sorry) and around the ground. Martin seems like he'd be poised to take advantage of that matchup with his experience in both areas, but playing Archie this week would play into St Kilda's hands. Oscar would at least provide a presence up forward to keep Brown/Carlisle honest.
On top of that, Billings is an obvious match winner when on but given the gift we gave Cripps I have no faith we'll try to do anything fancy there. Like previous games, if Neale, Lyons and McCluggage can get their hands to the ball first we should be well on our way - but a single dominant performance can be enough to neutralize that.
Neale is the key, where if St Kilda let him get off the chain I think our team will be too mature and well-structured for St Kilda but otherwise we could struggle. If we do struggle I hope we'll at least be able to fall over the line but the loss to Carlton has shaked that faith.
