Preview R21: Changes vs. Hawthorn

[PeterSalt]

Lewis looks miles off it still TBH, and we are a MUCH better side than what theyve faced recently.

We fluffed our lines badly down in Tassie, we wont do it again.

Right now I think either team are capable of the win

 

[Cromulant]

Right now I think either team are capable of the win

Yeah I think itll be a good game of footy TBH.

I'd be disappointed to lose it though, theres a chance to solidify a top 2 spot on the line.

 

[cleanhands]

Max Michalanney is a massive out. Look forward to having him back in finals, along with Rachele.

Cumming in for Jones. Smith in for Michalanney. Taylor to sub.

Not sure we'll go too far outside of the existing 27 or so we have running around at the moment. Last weeks team plus Cumming, Smith, Rachele and Butts. Fingers crossed Thilthorpe and O'Brien go the distance. Losing one would throw the team out of whack.

I’d still like Taylor to have more game time

 

[Scorpus]

Spot on!

All that matters is finals.

In 2022 - Collingwood were 10-0 in games decided by 7 points or less (11-0 in games by 11 points or less). They then lost two finals that year, each by 1 point.

What's also forgotten is that these poor records are largely just down to the quality difference between the teams

We don't lose to Hawthorn because they have the name Hawthorn and we get scared. We lose to them because they have been the better team than us.

Okay we have a 3-7 record against them the last 10. That's since 2018 where haven't made finals once, so kinda makes sense

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Interesting that Derm reckons they should play chol instead of Dear through the finals.

It’s a hard choice from a Hawthorn perspective.

I can see three possible scenarios come Thursday night when teams are selected for Friday.

Chol IN Gunston (managed) OUT
Chol IN Bailey MacDonald OUT (sub tbc)
No change.

Could very well play four talls with Chol/Dear very quick and athletic. Gunston smart and plays smaller naturally anyway, and Lewis is athletic and mobile.

It will be interesting how they go about it and what Adelaide do.

 

[Cromulant]

It’s a hard choice from a Hawthorn perspective.

I can see three possible scenarios come Thursday night when teams are selected for Friday.

Chol IN Gunston (managed) OUT
Chol IN Bailey MacDonald OUT (sub tbc)
No change.

Could very well play four talls with Chol/Dear very quick and athletic. Gunston smart and plays smaller naturally anyway, and Lewis is athletic and mobile.

It will be interesting how they go about it and what Adelaide do.

Personally I dont see 4 talls working, not just for you but for anyone.

Maybe on a warm dry day, but not on a slippery Friday night.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Personally I dont see 4 talls working, not just for you but for anyone.

Maybe on a warm dry day, but not on a slippery Friday night.

Fremantle do it with
Jackson (MID RUC and FWD)
Treacy, Voss, Amiss, Darcy (RUC)

GWS do it with
Hogan, Riccardi, Cadman, Stringer, Brown & Briggs (RUC)

Hawthorn last week had

Lewis, Dear, Gunston, Meek (RUC).

It has worked for some teams, it could but I do tend to agree with you, Sam Mitchell mentioned the importance of second rucks and mentioned Chol so who knows.

 

[ams4crows]

It’s a hard choice from a Hawthorn perspective.

I can see three possible scenarios come Thursday night when teams are selected for Friday.

Chol IN Gunston (managed) OUT
Chol IN Bailey MacDonald OUT (sub tbc)
No change.

Could very well play four talls with Chol/Dear very quick and athletic. Gunston smart and plays smaller naturally anyway, and Lewis is athletic and mobile.

It will be interesting how they go about it and what Adelaide do.

Gunston out would be great for us, if you choose to manage him.

Really they only reason Hawthorn won in Tassie was because of Gunston's smarts and Impey having an insane 2nd half

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Gunston out would be great for us, if you choose to manage him.

Really they only reason Hawthorn won in Tassie was because of Gunston's smarts and Impey having an insane 2nd half

Gunston is brilliant. I doubt he does, purely because of how important of a game it is.

Hawthorn besides Weddle, who may return just before finals, are fully fit. Touch wood

It’s either 4 talls or no changes imo.

Feel like Adelaide have a relatively easy choice to as to just replace Max, and then leave it as is. Been flying.

 

[JPetro83]

Mitchell will have a plan.

We are Hawthorns b!tch. They always out play us

 

[baldandbroke]

Right to think they’ll win easily?
We’ve lost 1 game all year at home.

Will this be something like Hawthorn’s 5th game outside Victoria / Launceston? How have they done in those other real away games against decent teams?

I get that they are a good side, no easy win for the crows coming up or anything like that … but I’m not sure that any Hawks fan should be expecting a runaway win!!

 

[Southerntakeover]

What's also forgotten is that these poor records are largely just down to the quality difference between the teams

We don't lose to Hawthorn because they have the name Hawthorn and we get scared. We lose to them because they have been the better team than us.

Okay we have a 3-7 record against them the last 10. That's since 2018 where haven't made finals once, so kinda makes sense

That's not forgotten, its self evident. They beat us because they're better football clubs.

Reducing it to ladder position isn't correct however. The records when we're good and they're bad is still embarrassing for us.

In 2017 we made the grand final, Hawthorn and Collingwood weren't good. And yet we still managed to drop a game at home to the Hawks, and tie Collingwood.

Hawthorn weren't good, and us bad in 2016. We should have finished top 2, except we pissed our pants in the final minutes of the game and let a can't lose slip against them.

Their winning records against us cannot be boiled down to simply 'the better team wins'.

 

[Scorpus]

That's not forgotten, its self evident. They beat us because they're better football clubs.

Reducing it to ladder position isn't correct however. The records when we're good and they're bad is still embarrassing for us.

In 2017 we made the grand final, Hawthorn and Collingwood weren't good. And yet we still managed to drop a game at home to the Hawks, and tie Collingwood.

Hawthorn weren't good, and us bad in 2016. We should have finished top 2, except we pissed our pants in the final minutes of the game and let a can't lose slip against them.

Their winning records against us cannot be boiled down to simply 'the better team wins'.

If you reduce it to specific years, sure.

In 2017, Hawthorn missed the finals, but seven out of eight years from 2011 to 2018 they finished top 4. Overall they are a better football club, it's not a surprise they managed to beat us most of the time in that era

The only era where our collective team was clearly better than them was in the late 90s and early 2000s when we were finishing top and they were missing finals. Between 1995 and 2006 we had an 11-4 record against them.

In 2015-17 we went 1-3 against them which is hardly an outrageous record given one of those years Hawthorn won the flag.

The last time Collingwood were definitely bad was 2014-2017 when they didn't make finals and we did. During that period we won 4, drew once and lost 0 times.

Before that, Collingwood made top 4 four years in a row and won a flag, and after that they made top 4 four times in six years and won a flag. We couldn't beat them in either era because they were clearly better than us

But then go back to 2004-06 when we finished above them consistently, we had a 4-1 record against them.

The only time Collingwood has ever ****ed us up when we were better than them is in the mid to late 90s

The reality is for most of our existence we haven't been able to put together the long stretches at the top that sides like Hawthorn and Collingwood have - and those sides beat us when they did that very thing

Of course there have been anomalies in specific years. 2017 we lost to them when we made the grand final, but then in 2011 we beat them when Hawthorn finished 3rd and we finished 14th

 

[Southerntakeover]

If you reduce it to specific years, sure.

In 2017, Hawthorn missed the finals, but seven out of eight years from 2011 to 2018 they finished top 4. Overall they are a better football club, it's not a surprise they managed to beat us most of the time in that era

The only era where our collective team was clearly better than them was in the late 90s and early 2000s when we were finishing top and they were missing finals. Between 1995 and 2006 we had an 11-4 record against them.

In 2015-17 we went 1-3 against them which is hardly an outrageous record given one of those years Hawthorn won the flag.

The last time Collingwood were definitely bad was 2014-2017 when they didn't make finals and we did. During that period we won 4, drew once and lost 0 times.

Before that, Collingwood made top 4 four years in a row and won a flag, and after that they made top 4 four times in six years and won a flag. We couldn't beat them in either era because they were clearly better than us

But then go back to 2004-06 when we finished above them consistently, we had a 4-1 record against them.

The only time Collingwood has ever ****ed us up when we were better than them is in the mid to late 90s

The reality is for most of our existence we haven't been able to put together the long stretches at the top that sides like Hawthorn and Collingwood have - and those sides beat us when they did that very thing

Of course there have been anomalies in specific years. 2017 we lost to them when we made the grand final, but then in 2011 we beat them when Hawthorn finished 3rd and we finished 14th

So, they win against us every time when they're good, all of the time when we're both equivalent, and some of the time when we're better than them and the conclusion that we should draw is that this is just the ordinary reflection of the ladder?

 

[Scorpus]

So, they win against us every time when they're good, all of the time when we're both equivalent, and some of the time when we're better than them and the conclusion that we should draw is that this is just the ordinary reflection of the ladder?

Depends how generous you want to be claiming they are equivalent to us



10-1 when clearly superior to Hawthorn

4-15 when Hawthorn clearly superior

8-12 when similar including this year so far

 

[Betts are off]

Our Friday/Thursday night form hasn't been great in 2025, 1-3 in those slots. And when you consider we've only lost 5 games, its probably adds a little motivation to not let this become more of a season hoodoo (especially as finals are likely to be stand-alone night games).

We need a big 4 quarter effort this week.

 

[Cromulant]

Our Friday/Thursday night form hasn't been great in 2025, 1-3 in those slots. And when you consider we've only lost 5 games, its probably adds a little motivation to not let this become more of a season hoodoo (especially as finals are likely to be stand-alone night games).

We need a big 4 quarter effort this week.

How many have those games have been at home ?? 1.

 

[Betts are off]

How many have those games have been at home ?? 1.

2, we are 1 and 1 at home. 0-2 away in prime time slots.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I wondered at the time of our Hawthorn loss, which half would sit heaviest with the coaches

The first half where we dominated but failed to capitalise on the scoreboard

Or the second half where we lost control in the middle and things slipped away

 

[1970crow]

Will this be something like Hawthorn’s 5th game outside Victoria / Launceston? How have they done in those other real away games against decent teams?

I get that they are a good side, no easy win for the crows coming up or anything like that … but I’m not sure that any Hawks fan should be expecting a runaway win!!

Been ok, nothing great, 1 bad one. Beat early Swans, 5 goal loss to early Port, 7 point loss to Cats. 8 point loss to Suns and 13 point loss to Dockers. Suggests they’re not too bad on the road, despite a poor W:L record.

 

[George CantStandYa]

I wondered at the time of our Hawthorn loss, which half would sit heaviest with the coaches

The first half where we dominated but failed to capitalise on the scoreboard

Or the second half where we lost control in the middle and things slipped away

Do you want me to ask Nicksy? We are close

 

[Vince in Tassie]

I wondered at the time of our Hawthorn loss, which half would sit heaviest with the coaches

The first half where we dominated but failed to capitalise on the scoreboard

Or the second half where we lost control in the middle and things slipped away

I live in Launceston, that night was shocking even for someone who lives here.
The first half, before the heavy dew settled, Crows didn’t capitalise on the score board as we dominated the play.
It then became a cold wet weather scrap in the 2nd half..
They were lucky to snatch that one.
We were lucky to beat the Lions and unlucky to lose to Gold Coast.
Swings and roundabouts.

 

[MrBarry]

I had a look at Willyweather:
"Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon".

I wouldn't have minded another wet night if we reproduced what we crushed the ferals with.
However, a dry night will be better long-term ie another hard slog in the wet (very enervating) could really tire the boys for the WCE then the Pies game (only 6 days later after the long flight).

We need dry this weekend imo.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Depends how generous you want to be claiming they are equivalent to us

View attachment 2381121

10-1 when clearly superior to Hawthorn

4-15 when Hawthorn clearly superior

8-12 when similar including this year so far

There's a circularity to this. The win totals include the games against each other. Inverting the results produces a closer, or flipped differential in more than a few instances. That they beat us consistently is one of the reasons they finish above us.

Of the games you say were their clear superiority, our most recent win was 2011.

 

[Southerntakeover]

How many have those games have been at home ?? 1.

2 at the Adelaide Oval, Geelong and Brisbane