AFL Autopsy Round 4 vs Sydney and City Hall

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Talking to a mate today that does a lot of statistical modeling who has created an AFL predictor based on something like 100 years of data (and yes it predicted a narrow Sydney win last night) - he said it's proven that home ground crowds influence umpiring decisions favorably for the home side, and that covid crowd affected home ground results last year also reflected this.

Assuming he's correct It's not suprising of course, but if this is the case you would hope umpire school is well aware of this and training umpires properly to allow fair results.
 

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It was a brilliant game of 2021 style footy..Obviously disappointing for Bombers fans..but your team showed so much..and the youth on show from Essendon was a real pleasure to watch..Made a point of looking at Harry Jones throughout the night..A gangly type of kid..nothing much on him but gees he looks a real prospect Love the way he plays his footy & how he barracked for the Dons as a kid..His third quarter goal was a real clutch kick..It's astounding seeing him and blokes like Archie Perkins, Alec Waterman & Nik Cox just step up & slot into the pressure of AFL football with a handful of games..unreal.. Peter Wright has been a handy pick-up in the ruck to.Ben Rutten has you guys on the right track..You have a good team there Bomber fans..Enjoy our snaps..especially the Cale Hooker "Mate, you're kidding" look on Darcy 'Yeah, I know" Parish after that butternut in the 2nd...and yes, the pic of absolute look of concentration by Darcy on THAT snap..meant it all the while..Enjoy and all the best for 2021!

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It was a brilliant game of 2021 style footy..Obviously disappointing for Bombers fans..but your team showed so much..and the youth on show from Essendon was a real pleasure to watch..Made a point of looking at Harry Jones throughout the night..A gangly type of kid..nothing much on him but gees he looks a real prospect Love the way he plays his footy & how he barracked for the Dons as a kid..His third quarter goal was a real clutch kick..It's astounding seeing him and blokes like Archie Perkins, Alec Waterman & Nik Cox just step up & slot into the pressure of AFL football with a handful of games..unreal.. Peter Wright has been a handy pick-up in the ruck to.Ben Rutten has you guys on the right track..You have a good team there Bomber fans..Enjoy some snaps..especially the Cale Hooker "Mate, you're kidding" look on Darcy 'Yeah, I know" Parish after that butternut in the 2nd...and yes, the pic of absolute look of concentration by Darcy on THAT snap..meant it all the while..Enjoy and all the best for 2021!

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Did you take these photos? Don’t think I’ve seen them elsewhere
 
Couple of observations.

First time in a long time we gave a four Quarter effort two weeks in a row.

System based football makes foot soldiers look like stars. Hawks did it with “soldier out soldier in” so have Richmond. I feel we are building a game plan.

Having the likes of Hurley, Ambrose, Stewart, Draper, Caldwell, Shiel out is an opportunity. Let’s not rush them back.

Development year is off to a flyer, very happy so far.
 
Couple of observations.

First time in a long time we gave a four Quarter effort two weeks in a row.

System based football makes foot soldiers look like stars. Hawks did it with “soldier out soldier in” so have Richmond. I feel we are building a game plan.

Having the likes of Hurley, Ambrose, Stewart, Draper, Caldwell, Shiel out is an opportunity. Let’s not rush them back.

Development year is off to a flyer, very happy so far.
Agree 100%

Umpiring decisions still annoying me today, but finals was never the goal this year so these losses won't matter long term (still infuriating at the time though).

Killed me watching teams with less talent but an established system beat us through the Worsfold years. Great to see a clear system this year and truck sticking to his guns (eg hooker staying forward). Really feel like the focus is on building towards a genuine tilt at the flag in a few years vs the last 15+ years of trying to rush things, or walking away from a system the second it wasn't working in 1 game.

Feel like truck is building culture into the team based on the clubs historical success, rather than that undeserved arrogance of "we deserve to be at the top because we were good ages ago" mentality that has also hamstrung carlton for years
 
Maybe some of you are too young, but umpiring doesn't really stack up to a lot in the grand scheme of things.

Arguing about 1 missed free here cancelling out another over there later on is about the worst use of someone's time I can think of.

If we're good enough to win the flag, we'll know it. Until then, focus on the things we care about, like our players. Complaining about the umps seems to take away from their great performance (which wasn't really good enough to win, IMO.)

Umpiring has ostensibly decided finalists, preliminary finals and premierships. It doesn’t impact so dramatically that a bottom 8 side becomes premiers, or vice versa, but it does impact in the grand scheme of things when you add it up over multiple games. Momentum and mindset are two of the most important aspects of winning football and bad umpiring is a dagger to the heart of both these elements. I think, respectfully, it’s a bad take to say otherwise.
 
Umpiring any sport at the top level would be difficult. But umpiring AFL must be bonkers.

You're combining a set of fairly complicated rules that regularly are met with updated and repeated interpretation changes according to the whims of the media and AFL itself, with the need to run a shitload of KMs, stay in positions where you can actually see, while also being really good at bouncing a ball against the ground without ruining your shoulder.

But yes that umpiring was ****ed.
 
Media narrative around Essendon is certainly starting to change. From us being in ruins because we lost Fantasia, Daniher and Saad to “maybe they’re playing better football without them”

I tend to agree. There definitely seems to be a positive vibe from the group. They’re playing for each other. Supporting each other on the field.

 

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Umpiring any sport at the top level would be difficult. But umpiring AFL must be bonkers.

You're combining a set of fairly complicated rules that regularly are met with updated and repeated interpretation changes according to the whims of the media and AFL itself, with the need to run a shitload of KMs, stay in positions where you can actually see, while also being really good at bouncing a ball against the ground without ruining your shoulder.

But yes that umpiring was f’ed.

What I don't get is how can there be 4 field umpires and they get constantly blindsided? I mean, how often does an off the ball umpire come in and say "nuh mate, you got that one wrong, should be a ball up" before play restarts? It should happen, it needs to happen. No one likes being wrong in this country.
 
Media narrative around Essendon is certainly starting to change. From us being in ruins because we lost Fantasia, Daniher and Saad to “maybe they’re playing better football without them”

I tend to agree. There definitely seems to be a positive vibe from the group. They’re playing for each other. Supporting each other on the field.


Hepp's post match talk in the rooms indicated that they're more committed and playing for each other 'this year'.
 
Well that’s great to hear now, also makes you wonder why the list hasn’t been as committed in the past.

Well when there's players who clearly didn't want to be there plus a coach who was just going through the motions plus the hangover from the saga, that wouldn't help engender a positive locker-room.

It's a new day, finally.
 
It’s an indictment on the club and the players who are getting paid handsomely to play a professional sport.
That's commonly the difference between professional and amateur sport. How many players in the AFL do you think are there for the love of the game, or just the pay cheque?
 
That's commonly the difference between professional and amateur sport. How many players in the AFL do you think are there for the love of the game, or just the pay cheque?
Reminds me a bit of Rodman's quote on the Last Dance: "I'll play the game for free, you've gotta pay me for the bullshit"
 
What I don't get is how can there be 4 field umpires and they get constantly blindsided? I mean, how often does an off the ball umpire come in and say "nuh mate, you got that one wrong, should be a ball up" before play restarts? It should happen, it needs to happen. No one likes being wrong in this country.
Well there's only 3 field umpires. And with 36 players the 3 of them are trying to see around it can create a lot of blind spots.

Keeping in mind one of them is at least 100m (in theory) off the play at all time.
 

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