Team Youth Rankings

[My Tilly]

Richo on 3AW today said Tigers don't have any replacement for Riewoldt so he will likely have to play on unless they bring in someone via the trade to help Lynch in 2024.

 

[RUNVS]

Richo on 3AW today said Tigers don't have any replacement for Riewoldt so he will likely have to play on unless they bring in someone via the trade to help Lynch in 2024.

Not sure Riewoldt can as he is a shadow of the player he once was. Richmond will just need to hope Lynch stays fit and also draft in a replacement and hope they are ready to replace Lynch in 2 years time.

 

[Roby]

Meteoric Rise



Your question was Collingwood, so they where fourth. I'll post 2017 later.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Meteoric Rise



Your question was Collingwood, so they where fourth. I'll post 2017 later.

Ok isn't that interesting. Not only that but the 3 teams ranked 16 17 18 are the current bottom 3! There are a couple of exceptions but your ratings seem to have predicted the 7 years future ladder positions of teams fairly well.

So this is the youth of each club you are ranking at that point - players aged 23yo and below? And you were ranking them based on their output at AFL level in 2016 alone?

2017 would be very interesting but I would also be acutely interested in the earlier years say 2015, 2014, 2013 to see if they were useful predictors of performance 5, 6, 7 years in the future.

 

[Roby]

Ok isn't that interesting. Not only that but the 3 teams ranked 16 17 18 are the current bottom 3! There are a couple of exceptions but your ratings seem to have predicted the 7 years future ladder positions of teams fairly well.

So this is the youth of each club you are ranking at that point - players aged 23yo and below? And you were ranking them based on their output at AFL level in 2016 alone?

2017 would be very interesting but I would also be acutely interested in the earlier years say 2015, 2014, 2013 to see if they were useful predictors of performance 5, 6, 7 years in the future.

24yo and below.

If you read the OP:

"team finishing first in each category is awarded 18 points, second place gets 17 points, and so on, with the last position earning 1 point.

The five categories are:

Total Supercoach scores
Total Player Ratings
Average Supercoach scores
Average Player Ratings
Total Coaches Votes"

So three of those outputs are for single seasons (Coaches Votes, total SC scores, average SC scores), two are progressive from previous season and current (total player ratings, average player ratings).

If you read the OP you can see my rationale for doing this.

I can go as far back as 2012, so I'll post them all from 2012-2022 in one Google sheet.

Yes it's interesting the bottom 3 are the current bottom 3. I would say it's common sense that if you don't have good youth that eventually you'll slide back down the ladder in a equalised competition with salary caps and drafts.

This kind of rankings would have less sense in European soccer, were rich clubs can just buy their players without any cap to spending.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

24yo and below.

If you read the OP:

"team finishing first in each category is awarded 18 points, second place gets 17 points, and so on, with the last position earning 1 point.

The five categories are:

Total Supercoach scores
Total Player Ratings
Average Supercoach scores
Average Player Ratings
Total Coaches Votes"

So three of those outputs are for single seasons (Coaches Votes, total SC scores, average SC scores), two are progressive from previous season and current (total player ratings, average player ratings).

If you read the OP you can see my rationale for doing this.

I can go as far back as 2012, so I'll post them all from 2012-2022 in one Google sheet.

Yes it's interesting the bottom 3 are the current bottom 3. I would say it's common sense that if you don't have good youth that eventually you'll slide back down the ladder in a equalised competition with salary caps and drafts.

This kind of rankings would have less sense in European soccer, were rich clubs can just buy their players without any cap to spending.

I look forward to seeing if there is a longer term pattern at play here. Good work.

 

[vozzon]

Others have answered above but I think it is fair to say without that priority pick(massive rort 2 years after appearing in b2b Grand Finals) Collingwood would have been a whole lot less likely to draft Pendlebury.

yeah thats a bit suss, pretty much might as well give WC a priot pick even though they won a GF recently. A few clubs got a good leg up during that era rebuilding.

 

[Roby]

Meteoric Rise

Interesting excercise. I'll post some thoughts later but here is every one from 2012-22

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Meteoric Rise

Interesting excercise. I'll post some thoughts later but here is every one from 2012-22

That's brilliant, thanks. Will give us something to pour over and discuss over time. Even a quick scan tells me a few things:

- there are both strong correlations(Tigers, Crows 2012) and total exceptions(Geelong almost throughout the decade) to teams performances 4-5-6 years after these readings.

- teams can jump around quite a lot year to year, I guess as certain players come into and out of the age bracket and also assume different roles.

- some teams have recorded strong readings whilst contending or even winning flags(Bulldogs 2016 for eg.)

 

[Roby]

Sydney move to 2nd, Freo hold their top spot

Could Sydney ascend to the top spot? Despite having a challenging last four games, it's still a possibility. That said, Fremantle seems more likely to maintain their position at the helm, especially given the fact that they will face the Eagles in just two weeks.

The final round will witness a riveting encounter between Hawthorn, currently 3rd, and the frontrunner Fremantle. This head-to-head competition between two best ranked young midfields could very well determine who secures the top position overall.

P.S. I've introduced a new ranking category, "Spine", which takes into account Key Forwards, Defenders, and Rucks.

 

[Roby]

Gulden is exceptional

Gulden has elevated Sydney's young midfield, positioning it as the best young midfield in the comp. Together with the likes of Rowbottom and Warner, they currently rank above Hawthorn's and Fremantle's young midfields.

Hawthorn solidified their second ranked position by convincingly defeating premiership favourite Collingwood. The future looks promising for several teams at the top of the rankings.

 

[Mattrox]

yeah thats a bit suss, pretty much might as well give WC a priot pick even though they won a GF recently. A few clubs got a good leg up during that era rebuilding.

Crows try a rebuild from the bottom up and get a 6 week ban based on some Port Power fan golfer whos txted photos to the age .... Which they never published with their story.... Because of some supposed unfair advantage..... pfft


Nah. The AFL is happy to kick some clubs while they are down. Colour me cynical.

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[vozzon]

Crows try a rebuild from the bottom up and get a 6 week ban based on some Port Power fan golfer whos txted photos to the age .... Which they never published with their story.... Because of some supposed unfair advantage..... pfft


Nah. The AFL is happy to kick some clubs while they are down. Colour me cynical.

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't remember what happened with that, can you elaborate?

 

[Mattrox]

I don't remember what happened with that, can you elaborate?

They had Victorian players (mostly 1st and 2nd year players) in isolation in the Barossa. They had a morning training session in small groups on a golf course. An impatient golfer was waiting to tee off. As the players finished the session, they kicked the balls amongst themselves. The small groups sort of dissolved. The golfer took photos and went to the Age. The Victorian media were calling for hundreds of thousands in fines and stripping two draft picks for violating isolation rules and gaining an unfair advantage. They didn't even train as a whole group. Yes, it was a minor breach, but we got slapped with the harshest covid violation penalty and was relatively minor compared to other incidents.... Buckley playing tennis with someone outside the bubble was higher risk. Photos were never released.

This is a paraphrase from a person I know who golfs with a prominent SA footy identity who has spoken to the people at the Barossa golf course. I have tried to remove the hyperbole from the story I was told, but that is approximately what happened.

 

[Roby]

Do North need priority picks?

No, they're ranked 7th for youth.


What does finishing top 2 in the rankings mean?

It usually indicates that you'll win a Premiership or play in a Grand Final. Currently, Freo is ranked first and Hawthorn is second. Given Freo finished first in the rankings last year, their time should come soon. Thus, finishing second is especially significant for Hawthorn this year, as they've never finished in the top 2 before; then again neither has Sydney who are hot on their heels.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Do North need priority picks?

No, they're ranked 7th for youth.


What does finishing top 2 in the rankings mean?

It usually indicates that you'll win a Premiership or play in a Grand Final. Currently, Freo is ranked first and Hawthorn is second. Given Freo finished first in the rankings last year, their time should come soon. Thus, finishing second is especially significant for Hawthorn this year, as they've never finished in the top 2 before; then again neither has Sydney who are hot on their heels.

When are you going to start placing bets of these now rankings young Roby

 

[Roby]

When are you going to start placing bets of these now rankings young Roby

It's not a batting guide, it's an assessment of each AFL club's team's youth.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Not sure Riewoldt can as he is a shadow of the player he once was. Richmond will just need to hope Lynch stays fit and also draft in a replacement and hope they are ready to replace Lynch in 2 years time.

Reiwoldt has been good every time I've seen him this year. Not at the peak of his powers Coleman medalist good but he's basically held that forward line together. He's still a solid player.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Do North need priority picks?

No, they're ranked 7th for youth.


What does finishing top 2 in the rankings mean?

It usually indicates that you'll win a Premiership or play in a Grand Final. Currently, Freo is ranked first and Hawthorn is second. Given Freo finished first in the rankings last year, their time should come soon. Thus, finishing second is especially significant for Hawthorn this year, as they've never finished in the top 2 before; then again neither has Sydney who are hot on their heels.

Love it Roby!
People s**t can the anchors but fail to realise we are a young team (second youngest in r22)
The reason we are young this long into a rebuild is the dearth of players that have left.
Unlike other teams the media put that on the club instead of championing for handouts.
Very excited about the back half of the decade

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Some interesting age profiles from round 22.

Essendon, Hawks, Freo and Port fielding the youngest teams.

Round 22 average age and games played​

CLUB	AVERAGE AGE	AVERAGE GAMES PLAYED
Adelaide	25 years, 31 days	88.3 games
Brisbane	26 years, 147 days	128.3 games
Carlton	26 years, 89 days	93.3 games
Collingwood	27 years, 174 days	135 games
Essendon	24 years, 346 days	84.4 games
Fremantle	24 years, 138 days	74.3 games
Geelong	27 years, 45 days	133.6 games
Gold Coast	26 years, 45 days	102 games
Greater Western Sydney	26 years, 97 days	104 games
Hawthorn	24 years, 120 days	83.2 games
Melbourne	26 years, 196 days	128.2 games
North Melbourne	24 years, 327 days	98.1 games
Port Adelaide	24 years, 313 days	87.7 games
Richmond	27 years, 16 days	123 games
St Kilda	25 years, 288 days	107.2 games
Sydney	25 years, 167 days	107.2 games
West Coast	25 years, 179 days	98.2 games
Western Bulldogs	26 years, 38 days	114 games

 

[Roby]

Love it Roby!
People s**t can the anchors but fail to realise we are a young team (second youngest in r22)
The reason we are young this long into a rebuild is the dearth of players that have left.
Unlike other teams the media put that on the club instead of championing for handouts.
Very excited about the back half of the decade

We have another debutant for Freo this week in Tom Emmett, do you know much about him?

Currently if you check the Forwards ranking, Freo is ranked 10th, which is their weakest part for youth. Well done on Longmuir to identify this and bring somone that might add to the side in the future.

Bringing a new player will only add to Freo's weighting, if Emmett were to have a decent outing it will only solidify their top spot even further.

 

[HairyO]

Love it Roby!
People s**t can the anchors but fail to realise we are a young team (second youngest in r22)
The reason we are young this long into a rebuild is the dearth of players that have left.
Unlike other teams the media put that on the club instead of championing for handouts.
Very excited about the back half of the decade

Couple of Freo players Id desperately love.

Amiss and Young are phenomenal players.

 

[Roby]

Freo have sealed their top spot for the second year in a row.

Hawks will probably still hold on to second spot, but Sydney may be a chance to still finish second.

I'll do a write up of every team, maybe after the finals, with details of how they ranked in each category, where their weaknesses lie, what players they should draft, and where each team is projected to finish in years to come (premiership, wooden spoon).

 

[Roby]

Freo Wins Back-to-Back

Fremantle tops the Team Youth Rankings (YTR) for the second consecutive year, accumulating 82 points. Last year, they garnered 81 points. In 2021, they secured second place with 77 points, and in 2020, they claimed third with 66 points.

The 82 points Freo scored this year are impressive. It matches the Dees' score in 2018 when they were ranked first in the YTR, three years prior to clinching the premiership.

Hawks Drop to Fourth

Despite ranking in the top two throughout the season, the last two rounds led to their fall to fourth position, overtaken by the Suns (2nd) and the Swans (3rd). North's recent victory proved invaluable, not just for the first pick in the draft, but also for propelling them two places up, from 7th to 5th.

Beveridge in the Doghouse

For Dogs supporters, the rankings might appear perplexing. After achieving first place in the YTR with 86 points in 2016 (the second-highest score ever, surpassed only by GWS's 89 points in 2015) – the year they took home the flag – they have now plummeted to the bottom of the rankings this year, following their absence from the finals. It's challenging to pinpoint the exact cause, but one thing is clear: Luke Beveridge might have missed the mark this time.

 

[rgauci]

What happens to Fremantle’s Team Youth Rankings when Liam Henry leaves?