The Hawthorn 3peat: is it an accident of history?

[Lance Uppercut]

The evidence is available.

I don't mind you trolling Hawthorn. It is your claim of being only interested in the purity of prosecuting an argument that galls.

well I'm sorry to hear that, but all I'm interested in is interesting debate; and it would probably do you good to reflect on the possibility that the reason you perceive it the way you do is simply because the subject matter is that which you are emotionally invested in. That's not a coincidence, is it now?

 

[DapperDon]

Post reported for abuse

snitch

 

[Luv_our_club]

well I'm sorry to hear that, but all I'm interested in is interesting debate; and it would probably do you good to reflect on the possibility that the reason you perceive it the way you do is simply because the subject matter is that which you are emotionally invested in. That's not a coincidence, is it now?

The rules of the Main Board prevent this conversation being had in it's full context.

But at least be true to yourself.

 

[demondavey]

1) Um, yes. That is precisely how clubs improve their list. Every. Single. Year. I mean, it's bizarre - let's extrapolate your argument: if they kept the concessions going permanently under your logic it wouldn't affect anyone, in any way, ever. It's pure gibberish

2) This simply proves you don't even comprehend what's being discussed. Of course there was a distortion of the equalisation process. This is self-evident. And the artificial status quo is also self-evident, and borne out by direct observation that matches my thesis precisely both during and after the effects of the accident of history. Seriously, you may as well argue the sun doesn't generate heat. My thesis matches reality exactly. You are just spouting mindless denials with no basis in empirical reality whatsoever - sophist, circular logic nonsense

3) The effects of the distortion, genius! It's not like it's a monolithic "thing", this is where your inability to understand nuance or concepts that aren't binary is hurting you. This is a systemic thing. There are multiple moving parts. Once the draft concessions ceased, then that flowed on to the trade imbalances finally working their way through the system, which meant that, over a period of 2-3 years, the effects of the distortion worked their way out of the system as a whole. Try thinking about it, seriously

4) Ironic to say the least

Point 1 - You stated the obvious. Don't try and patronise me by quoting my post and claiming i don't know how the rebuild process works. Your inability to grasp that it takes time for those draft picks to have an impact completely underpins my argument that Hawthorn were not going to affected by other developing clubs from 13-15.

Point 2 - Matches your thesis? Don't oversell yourself champ. It does not match exact reality. Your version of reality needs adjusting pal.

Point 3 - You make zero sense.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

The rules of the Main Board prevent this conversation being had in it's full context.

But at least be true to yourself.

I'm true to myself. I'm inviting you to a bit of self-reflection and understand that it's no coincidence that you are crying troll because the subject matter is about an issue you are emotionally invested in. It's no coincidence you or your mate your "heard" it from have accused me of trolling in any other context that that which involves Hawthorn

 

[Scotland]

So um, Andrew McGrath. He's way better than Ryan Burton, right?

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Congratulations on stating the obvious and also the very fundamentals of my points. Those players drafted were not going to assist anyone going anywhere until GWS finally made the finals in 2016.

What? None of their players made any difference until 2016, the year after the Hawkes three peat?

How about just one example - Jeremy Cameron was an All Australian... three bloody years before that?

 

[demondavey]

dear oh dear, you cannot be serious. You honestly think that kids joining a list of kids is the same as kids integrating into a mature list with a demographic spread?

Boy oh boy, this says it all really

No, Lance, you do. Hence why you think the 'distortion' of the draft was an accident of History that somehow allowed Hawthorn to achieve what they did.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Point 1 - You stated the obvious. Don't try and patronise me by quoting my post and claiming i don't know how the rebuild process works. Your inability to grasp that it takes time for those draft picks to have an impact completely underpins my argument that Hawthorn were not going to affected by other developing clubs from 13-15.

Point 2 - Matches your thesis? Don't oversell yourself champ. It does not match exact reality. Your version of reality needs adjusting pal.

Point 3 - You make zero sense.

a champ and a pal. Wow. And right after accusing me of being patronising. Really?

I have never claimed you don't understand how a rebuild works, let's face it you've more experience in that as a supporter than me. I'm claiming that if you say that a draftee slotting into GWS is exactly the same in terms of impact as the same draftee slotting into an established team with a good demographic spread then there is a problem with the fundamentals of what your trying to argue

 

[demondavey]

What? None of their players made any difference until 2016, the year after the Hawkes three peat?

How about just one example - Jeremy Cameron was an All Australian... three bloody years before that?

One player able to turn the tide against a rampaging Hawthorn?

 

[Bunk Moreland]

One player able to turn the tide against a rampaging Hawthorn?

So he did have an impact then?

Finally, we’re getting somewhere.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

What? None of their players made any difference until 2016, the year after the Hawkes three peat?

How about just one example - Jeremy Cameron was an All Australian... three bloody years before that?

Toby Greene. Jaeger O'Meara. I mean, the list could go on and on and on. It's just... bizarre!

 

[DapperJong]

Post reported for abuse

snitch

 

[Lance Uppercut]

One player able to turn the tide against a rampaging Hawthorn?

you are the absolute king of the strawman. Either that or you really are obtuse to the point of incredulity.

 

[yeahmate]

Ok, few cones in, but on reflection I think the central premise could be sound but it depends upon the intuition/assumption that there isnt a straight line distribution of talent in draft order but some sort of exponential in play therefore applying a fixed translation to the order of the draft by priority picks to certain clubs does for that period of time marginally impact the ability of the draft to act as an equalisation tool. Otherwise if talent was straight line distribution then a fixed translation would just cancel itself out Highly doubtful however that this would manifest in any meaningful way in such a short period (essentially the second and third year of the 3 peat), but interesting observation nevertheless. So how bout that 3 peat, hey, those were the days?

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Ok, few cones in, but on reflection I think the central premise could be sound but it depends upon the intuition/assumption that there isnt a straight line distribution of talent in draft order but some sort of exponential in play therefore applying a fixed translation to the order of the draft by priority picks to certain clubs does for that period of time marginally impact the ability of the draft to act as an equalisation tool. Otherwise if talent was straight line distribution then a fixed translation would just cancel itself out Highly doubtful however that this would manifest in any meaningful way in such a short period (essentially the second and third year of the 3 peat), but interesting observation nevertheless. So how bout that 3 peat, hey, those were the days?

Good comment but I'd say slightly wrong, in that it's not a straight line distribution; rather the entire way equalisation is structured is that the processes that enable it are designed by their very nature to provide, if not exponentially, then considerably more benefit the further down the ladder you go.

So its more j curve than straight line, and as such it explains why the theory is borne out in observation so well

 

[demondavey]

a champ and a pal. Wow. And right after accusing me of being patronising. Really?

I have never claimed you don't understand how a rebuild works, let's face it you've more experience in that as a supporter than me. I'm claiming that if you say that a draftee slotting into GWS is exactly the same in terms of impact as the same draftee slotting into an established team with a good demographic spread then there is a problem with the fundamentals of what your trying to argue

Established team? A draftee stepping into the Richmond line up who finished 12th in 2011? That is not an established team mate.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Established team? A draftee stepping into the Richmond line up who finished 12th in 2011? That is not an established team mate.

The same Richmond you were only just lauding for making finals two years later?!!

 

[demondavey]

The same Richmond you were only just lauding for making finals two years later?!!

Ye they still did it without those draft picks? Culture?

What about the WB? 15th in 2013, another miss in 2014, finals in 15 then flag in 16. Didn't need those picks to have an influence did they?

 

[threesixpio]

So um, Andrew McGrath. He's way better than Ryan Burton, right?

Wrong thread...or is it?

Drug Cheats!!

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Ye they still did it without those draft picks? Culture?

What about the WB? 15th in 2013, another miss in 2014, finals in 15 then flag in 16. Didn't need those picks to have an influence did they?

Again, fallacious. They probably would have been better with better picks. That's the whole underpinning of equalisation...

 

[DapperDon]

Wrong thread...or is it?

Drug Cheats!!

More drug cheats and more rising star awards.

We just have more of everyfink

 

[DapperDon]

Again, fallacious. They probably would have been better with better picks. That's the whole underpinning of equalisation...

I like how he is arguing your exact reasons against you. It's truly amazing

 

[threesixpio]

Again, fallacious. They probably would have been better with better picks. That's the whole underpinning of equalisation...

Hey Lance - it’s one thing to say it had an influence but my question to you is “do you think Hawthorn would have likely threepeated” anyway?

 

[demondavey]

Again, fallacious. They probably would have been better with better picks. That's the whole underpinning of equalisation...

Really? A couple of picks at the draft hey? A couple of green and raw teenagers would have managed to force their way into the side? The same kids that played with GWS, with senior players mind you, and didn't play finals until less than 2 years ago.

I mean you continue to cluck on about the senior players. Well GWS recruited very very well in their senior stocks, yet those kids were still going to take time.

So no dice pal.