The Official Eastern Conference Semi Final 'Definitely No Richmond Talk' Thread

Who wins their series

  • Cleveland

    Votes: 12 63.2%
  • Atlanta

    Votes: 1 5.3%
  • Miami

    Votes: 5 26.3%
  • Toronto

    Votes: 1 5.3%

  • Total voters
    19

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Sep 7, 2005
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Liverpool, Chicago Bulls
And so we have a rematch of last seasons Conference Finals in the second round. Last time round Atlanta had no answer for the King. Can things change this year?

The Cavs swept the Hawks 3-0 this season. The saving grace being only one loss was at home and that was in overtime. The first meeting saw Millsap, Teague and German Rondo shoot a combined 9/33. The final matchup had Millsap and Schroder hitting 5/22. The overtime game saw Millsap drop 29 points... So y'all see where I'm going here. Unsurprisingly Atlanta lost the rebounding battle in all 3 match ups. On the flip side the Big 3 for Cleveland had 64 and 79 in their only 2 outings against the Hawks. Love did take a lot of three's in those matchups, shooting 7/21 in 3 games. The key with Love is to make him shoot contested 3's and not give him the time and space to set his feet and wind up. Meanwhile that James fellow has had quite the time of it against Atlanta, 29/9/16 with 3 steals, 19/11/8 with 2 blocks and 34/6/6 on 13/16 shooting. And for comparisons sake (not really) Schroder has a plus minus of -34 in 47 minutes against Cleveland on 7/23 shooting.

Teague/Schroder v Irving/Delly
Kyrie went off in one game v Atlanta and put up a 5/23 in the other. They have to limit him offensively and look to run him ragged with a 2 prong attack on the other end. Dellys a tough beast but the 2 Atlanta points are quick and they'll need to make hay when the sun shines when Delly is on court.

Korver/THJ v JR/Shump
Presumably they'll mix and match in the backcourt. JR perhaps isnt the best match for a Korver. Atlanta need the Kyle of old to show up in this series. JR meanwhile hasnt enjoyed the best of times recently against the Hawks, but as the fourth banana should get some open looks from deep.

Bazemore/Thabo v LBJ
The sole saving grace is that Thabo missed the series last season, and the one game he played Lebron has 19 points... just ignore 11 boards and 8 assists lol. The King will feast, he'll likely average 30, Atlanta will need Bazemore to make some shots and pray for intervention from God.

Millsap/Mike Scott v Love
Millsap plays well, Atlanta generally play well.... generally (just forget that Boston game lol). We all know Love's limitations, and he may well match up on Horford instead, but regardless of who it is, you can't give him open looks at the 3 and you have to work him over on the block.

Horford v TT/Mozzy
Mozgov aint playing much this series so its going to be small ball with TT at the 5 for most of it.

Whilst Clevelands starting unit has plenty of firepower the bench is a little on the lacklustre side. Of course rotations tighten up come playoff time, and Lue should be smart enough to leave one or more of the Big 3 on court at all times. Note that i said should..... The bench also doesn't have much big man depth, so if Atlanta can get Cleveland into some foul trouble it will help them out massively.

Keys for Atlanta
Rebound - They are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. At the very least they have to keep Cleveland off the offensive boards.
Make buckets - Goes without saying, but made baskets means less transition. They cant out run the Cavs, if they get out in the open floor this is done.
Limit Lebron
Opp FG% - If Cleveland shoot 40% (obv not a hard and fast rule) or more the Hawks will lose the game

Keys for Cleveland
Korver - He is so important to everything the Hawks do. So many of their plays are designed with him in mind and use his gravitational pull to open lanes. Bud has a beautiful high pick and roll set that has Horford roll into space where you can't leave Korver and have Millsap on the weak side heading to the rim
3 point defense - The Hawks are stacked with shooters and they have actually shot it pretty well against the Cavs this year in the 30-38% range. They'll need to limit the Hawks from deep
Rebounds - TT down low is an offensive rebounding beast, he's pulled in 40 boards in 3 games against the Hawks including 13 offensive

I apologise for the how to beat the Cavs nature of the preview, but i've watched a lot more Atlanta games in the last week or two than i have Cleveland, and well... its the underdog nature of it. This is clearly Clevelands series to lose on paper

Raps v Heatles to come
 
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Head-to-head: Raptors won 3-1

8/11/15 Raptors 76 @ Heat 96
18/12/15 Raptors 108 @ Heat 94
22/1/16 Heat 81 @ Raptors 101
12/3/16 Heat 104 @ Raptors 112 (OT)

It's probably best not to draw too many conclusions from the season meetings, as the Heat's roster personnel and game-style have been drastically altered since the All-Star break.

What's note-worthy is that DeRozan torched the normally stingy Heat defence for games of 30, 33 & 38.


Stat attack:

O Rating - Toronto 110.0 (5th), Miami 106.1 (14th)
Pace - Toronto 92.9 (29th), Miami 93.6 (25th)
EFG% - Toronto .504 (12th), Miami .508 (11th)
3Pt% - Toronto .370 (5th), Miami .336 (27th)
Assists - Toronto 18.7 (29th), Miami 20.8 (23rd)
T/O% - Toronto 12.3 (7th), Miami 13.3 (18th)
3PAr - Toronto .287 (15th), Miami .221 (27th)
FTr - Toronto .328 (3rd), Miami .282 (11th)
OReb% - Toronto 24.6 (12th), Miami 23.8 (17th)

D Rating - Toronto 105.2 (11th), Miami 104.4 (9th)
D EFG% - Toronto .498 (14th), Miami .485 (7th)
D 3Pt% - Toronto .373 (29th), Miami .347 (12th)
D T/O% - Toronto 12.7 (19th), Miami 12.1 (26th)
D FTr - Toronto .201 (10th), Miami .196 (7th)
DReb% - Toronto 77.7 (8th), Miami 77.8 (6th)


Clearly both teams like to play slow and prefer to have their guards attack the lane - don't expect a Spurs v Dubs passing clinic from these two.

On the other hand the Heat drastically altered its tempo and style during a late season swing, with much improved offensive results. Toronto both shoots and gives up a generous proportion of threes, Miami less so. Both squads do a serviceable job of protecting the paint and hitting the boards.


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Four Factors:

1/ Valanciunas has got to stay out of foul trouble for the Raps. Despite the fact that Biyombo is a capable back-up, Toronto's offensive options often dry up when he's sitting for long stretches.

2/ Similarly Dragic has to avoid picking up cheap fouls for the Heat. He has a tendency to get flustered when frustrated, while as valuable as Josh Richardson has been, he can't run an offence.

3/ Cory Joseph was a steady hand in the sea of turbulence that was Toronto's series with Indy. Casey has got to figure out a way to get the Jospeh/Lowry/DDR triumvirate together on the floor more.

4/ Miami need Luol Deng to carry over his form from the Charlotte series - the Heat are much more potent when he's aggressive, and PF is a chink in the Raptor armour.


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Random thoughts:

* Alonzo Mourning gets to watch his beloved Heat take on another of his former teams... and Vince Carter won't be around to spoil it. OK you got me, gratuitous 'Zo referece - the Chris Bosh Cup it is.

* Fresh from out-dueling Monta in the "no, no, yes!" contests, DDR now meets Wade, the man who wrote the book (foreword by Kobe).

* Whiteside vs Biyombo - isn't wingspan is a wonderful thing?

* Gerald Green & Terrence Ross can duke it out for the Irrational Confidence Guy title belt.

* Norman Powell vs Josh Richardson... maybe Hinkie was right about second round picks after all?

* Hey Drake, remember me?




Grab the popcorn:

Game 1: Wed May 4, 10am (AusEST)

Game 2: Fri May 6, 10am

Game 3: Sun May 8, 7am

Game 4: Tues May 10, 10am

Game 5: Thurs May 12

Game 6: Sat May 14

Game 7: Mon May 16
 

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