Competitions The Pieman 2021 - with a difference!

[dogwatch]

PIEMAN RESULTS RD 2 vs West Coast

Sounds like a cracker of a game. What a shame I didn't get to see it. Listened to the ABC radio broadcast through the AFL website and even that seized up just after Naughton took a mark 30m out with score 88-93.

Anyway, lots of goals so plenty of action and as X_Box_x said, some high scores (though maybe not as high as he expected).

A few people said they wanted the same team as last week and 12 others said nothing so they got the same team as last week too. That's all good - it's the way it's meant to work. The good thing this year is that everybody has five players on the field every week so that should mean five legitimate chances and result in a more even competition.

Pieman Player of the Week
Bont was a deserving winner but had to share it with Daniel who had a much higher handicap.



Pieman Player of the Year
With changing handicaps every week this should be a much closer comp in 2021. Smith and Vandermeer have a little break but it's close after that, something that warms the handicappers heart. (In a perfect world every player would end up with the same number of Pieman Points at the end of the season.)



The KELVIN
That man from Florida has done it again. Well done Floridog on what I think is your second career Kelvin.
Jeff 1975 was again runner up and the only one to cash in on the 20 point bonus. He and bontshow (3rd with 126pts) both used their Rd 1 carryover teams.




The PIEMAN

Well he may have just missed out on the Kelvin two weeks in a row but Jeff 1975's consistency has given him a handy early lead in the Pieman. Last week's winner Wocka drops to second place and grassman75 moves up a spot to 3rd.



New handicaps for Rd 3 should be out some time tomorrow.

 

[Floridog]

YAY! I just finished watching the game. I would of had to stay up till 3 AM to watch it live. And to get the full experience I even made some meat pies to enjoy while I watched. I got the recipe from Youtube, I had a hard time understanding everything because of the lady's accent and I had to convert the recipe from metric to imperial. So I think it was Authentic. Washed 'em down with a couple of Cooper's. Winning the Kelvin gives me an excuse to celebrate with a couple more.

 

[bontshow]

Yep had total faith in my 0 point scoring round 1 team to not post anything and come top 3 next week Can I swap Dale and Dale for Vdm and Vdm?

 

[dogwatch]

Yep had total faith in my 0 point scoring round 1 team to not post anything and come top 3 next week Can I swap Dale and Dale for Vdm and Vdm?

Sure ... if serious.
Is that your team for Rd 3? (3xBont, 2xVDM)

 

[bontshow]

Sure ... if serious.
Is that your team for Rd 3? (3xBont, 2xVDM)

Yes serious thank you

 

[dogwatch]

Yes serious thank you

Done. (I thought you might have been kidding about a retrospective fit of VDM for Rd 2!)

Just a heads up ... VDM and Bont will both have lower handicaps when I release them later today. No problem if you want to revise your picks after that.

 

[dogwatch]

Pieman Handicaps Rd 3 v NORTH, Marvel Stadium 2 April 2021

Here are the provisional handicaps for Round 3. I say "provisional" as I reserve the right to make adjustments after news of injuries, team selection etc, but I don't expect to have to do that very often and will give as much notice as possible before the first bounce.

I've made a few significant changes this week as the roles, patterns and form of some players becomes clearer. Wallis, VDM, Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

, Dale, Cavarra (after his 4 goals in the reserves) and Scott have the biggest adjustments.



EDIT: Add Hannan at 19 - seems he's now available for selection.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Bruce x3, English and Wallis thanks

 

[Del165892]

Pieman Handicaps Rd 3 v NORTH, Marvel Stadium 2 April 2021

Here are the provisional handicaps for Round 3. I say "provisional" as I reserve the right to make adjustments after news of injuries, team selection etc, but I don't expect to have to do that very often and will give as much notice as possible before the first bounce.

I've made a few significant changes this week as the roles, patterns and form of some players becomes clearer. Wallis, VDM, Bailey Smith, Dale, Cavarra (after his 4 goals in the reserves) and Scott have the biggest adjustments.

View attachment 1088947

Are you willing to reveal how handicaps are calculated? I completely understand if you'd rather keep that secret.

 

[weltschmerz]

I'm going with our talls. Naughton, Bruce, English, Bont, Martin.

 

[grassman75]

Are you willing to reveal how handicaps are calculated? I completely understand if you'd rather keep that secret.

Its like the secret herbs and spices Scrag....

You multiply the number of locks in Baz's mullet x the weekly membership tally, divided by the number of entries in the Pieman less the amount of times Leon Cameron says **** and then run an average over the field for smoothing...all very complex. I don't even know if i got it all!

 

[grassman75]

Bont, B Smith, Vandermeer, Naughton x 2

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Are you willing to reveal how handicaps are calculated? I completely understand if you'd rather keep that secret.

 

[dogwatch]

Are you willing to reveal how handicaps are calculated? I completely understand if you'd rather keep that secret.

I used to have an arithmetical method. Now it's all intuition and fine tuning.

But I'm happy to share the old method (which was only to get me into the right ballpark). Bear in mind this was used in past years when getting the handicap right was critical because anyone who picked that player pre-season could keep the handicap all year, no matter how many goals he kicked along the way. In 2021 I can make adjustments each week and while you can keep a player you can't keep last week's handicap so it's less of an issue.

1. For each player I estimate how many goals I think he's likely to kick, as well as the probable range (Min, Max). Where available I'd look at past seasons' numbers and goals per game average. The longer he's been playing the more confident I can be and the narrower I can make the range between Min and Max.
2. Give them a weighting, usually something like 1 for Minimum, 4 for Likely and 2 for Maximum and multiply each by that weighting.
3. Add them up and divide the total into some arbitrary large number (usually 2000).

So for instance if I estimated Naughton is likely to kick 36 goals but in a range 20-60 then the three numbers after weighting are 20, 144 and 120 = 284. Divide that into 2000 and you get a handicap of about 7. After looking at the entire list of handicaps I might twiddle the dial on that one and make it 8. Or maybe not. It's a gut-feel thing.

Another example: Dunkley has played 78 games in 5 full seasons and has kicked a pretty consistent average of just over 0.5 goals a game so the range can be narrower. Maybe Min=6, Likely=12, Max=19. When weighted that gives 6+48+38=92 and a handicap of about 22, which I might adjust to 24 or higher, especially if I see him having a new role further away from goals.

The method doesn't work very well with defenders and new players. A calculated handicap of 200 could be disastrous if Bevo suddenly decides Keath is going to be our gun full forward. Or if he gives an unexpected debut to a player like Vandermeer after handicaps have been declared. That sort of thing has happened in the past but can be quickly corrected under the new rules.

Before finalising I'd also do a sanity check which would be a comparison of players' handicaps and also a worst-case scenario if a player was to get under my guard (I didn't always succeed with that aspect of course!)


As for this year, I was prepared to let it settle without much change after the first round but as trends now start to emerge I need to make adjustments. If you look at the PPotY table below you can see that there's a nice clustering of multiple goalscorers in the 40-45 point range but two outliers are B Smith and Vandermeer who I have probably been too generous with. So they get dialled back a bit. At three goals each their right handicap should probably be about 15, but if they go a few weeks without goals then they get tweaked out again. The longer the season runs the more confident I can be. I also have to allow for players looking very likely to score goals even if not registering on the board yet (eg Wallis this week and Bont last week).



So like any bookmaker displaying the odds at the racetrack it's a combination of factors in 2021 but chiefly:

• studying the form
• acting on any intelligence received
• following the money
• intuition & calculated risk-taking

 

[bontshow]

Done. (I thought you might have been kidding about a retrospective fit of VDM for Rd 2!)

Just a heads up ... VDM and Bont will both have lower handicaps when I release them later today. No problem if you want to revise your picks after that.

I'm tipping them to be our top 2 goalscorers this year and to drop their handicaps further. Banking (pun intended) on that and me being the only one to go all in on them by having them in my team more than once

 

[dogwatch]

Handicap Update:
Mitch Hannan has been declared fit and available for selection so I'm adding a handicap for him (19).

Here's the updated table of handicaps (Hannan the only change):

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Pom x 3, Lipi x 2 thanks

 

[Fossie 32]

22nd EJ jnr
Do you need to say no change every week if you want to stick with same team?

 

[dogwatch]

22nd EJ jnr
Do you need to say no change every week if you want to stick with same team?

No.
If I don't hear from you for whatever reason you get last week's team (with subs where necessary).

 

[BEaston]

Naughton Bruce Bont VDM Wallis

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Bruce x3, English and Wallis thanks

Swap Wallis for Scott thanks

 

[X_box_X]

Naughton, Bruce, Bont, English, Hunter

 

[StringyDog]

Hunter X3 McNeil JJ

 

[ossie_21]

Naughton, Bruce, English, Bmith, Libba

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Bont
Naughton
Baz
Bruce
Johannisen