Competitions The Pieman 2021 - with a difference!

[Struggle]

JJ x2
Hunter x2
Naughton

 

[weltschmerz]

I'm going with our talls. Naughton, Bruce, English, Bont, Martin.

Sticking with this, given North's entire backline minus McKay is under 190cm.

 

[BEaston]

Naughton Bruce Bont VDM Wallis

Naughton Bruce Bont VDM JJ

 

[theAthenian]

vdm english naughton bruce baileysmith

 

[josh the gent]

Naughton, Bruce, Bont, English, McNeil

 

[LordC]

Bruce English Vandermeer McNeil Dunks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dogwatch]

RandomDog’s picks this week are:

Liberatore
Scott
Bontempelli
McNeil
Scott

 

[dogwatch]

Updated handicap list after team announcement (no change to actual handicaps):

 

[dogwatch]

My picks are

English x 3
McNeil
Bruce

 

[Del165892]

I used to have an arithmetical method. Now it's all intuition and fine tuning.

But I'm happy to share the old method (which was only to get me into the right ballpark). Bear in mind this was used in past years when getting the handicap right was critical because anyone who picked that player pre-season could keep the handicap all year, no matter how many goals he kicked along the way. In 2021 I can make adjustments each week and while you can keep a player you can't keep last week's handicap so it's less of an issue.

1. For each player I estimate how many goals I think he's likely to kick, as well as the probable range (Min, Max). Where available I'd look at past seasons' numbers and goals per game average. The longer he's been playing the more confident I can be and the narrower I can make the range between Min and Max.
2. Give them a weighting, usually something like 1 for Minimum, 4 for Likely and 2 for Maximum and multiply each by that weighting.
3. Add them up and divide the total into some arbitrary large number (usually 2000).

So for instance if I estimated Naughton is likely to kick 36 goals but in a range 20-60 then the three numbers after weighting are 20, 144 and 120 = 284. Divide that into 2000 and you get a handicap of about 7. After looking at the entire list of handicaps I might twiddle the dial on that one and make it 8. Or maybe not. It's a gut-feel thing.

Another example: Dunkley has played 78 games in 5 full seasons and has kicked a pretty consistent average of just over 0.5 goals a game so the range can be narrower. Maybe Min=6, Likely=12, Max=19. When weighted that gives 6+48+38=92 and a handicap of about 22, which I might adjust to 24 or higher, especially if I see him having a new role further away from goals.

The method doesn't work very well with defenders and new players. A calculated handicap of 200 could be disastrous if Bevo suddenly decides Keath is going to be our gun full forward. Or if he gives an unexpected debut to a player like Vandermeer after handicaps have been declared. That sort of thing has happened in the past but can be quickly corrected under the new rules.

Before finalising I'd also do a sanity check which would be a comparison of players' handicaps and also a worst-case scenario if a player was to get under my guard (I didn't always succeed with that aspect of course!)


As for this year, I was prepared to let it settle without much change after the first round but as trends now start to emerge I need to make adjustments. If you look at the PPotY table below you can see that there's a nice clustering of multiple goalscorers in the 40-45 point range but two outliers are B Smith and Vandermeer who I have probably been too generous with. So they get dialled back a bit. At three goals each their right handicap should probably be about 15, but if they go a few weeks without goals then they get tweaked out again. The longer the season runs the more confident I can be. I also have to allow for players looking very likely to score goals even if not registering on the board yet (eg Wallis this week and Bont last week).

View attachment 1088975

So like any bookmaker displaying the odds at the racetrack it's a combination of factors in 2021 but chiefly:

• studying the form
• acting on any intelligence received
• following the money
• intuition & calculated risk-taking

Awesome post, thanks for the in-depth explanation.

 

[Del165892]

JJ x 3
Naughton
Vandermeer

 

[Northern Dogs]

After 2 norf type rounds, I need a change....
English, Bruce, Vandermeer, Treloar and Liber pls.

 

[dogwatch]

My picks are

English x 3
McNeil
Bruce

I've changed my picks :

McNeil
English
Bont
Bruce
Naughton

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Pom x 3, Lipi x 2 thanks

Pom x 3, McNeil x 2 thanks

 

[Snarls Barkley]

2x Naughton
2x Bruce
1x Macrae

 

[Floridog]

Naughton x 2, Bont, Bruce and JJ

 

[Sharkey66]

Bruce
Bont
Scott
Dunks
VDM

 

[SayerTheCreator]

All in.

McNeill x5

 

[TedDougChris]

Libba
English
Bruce
B Smith
McNeil

Many thanks !!

 

[Charlie Bucket]

JJ x 5

 

[dogwatch]

All in.

McNeill x5

JJ x 5

Sorry, not allowed.

Max is 3x

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Sorry, not allowed.

Max is 3x

Has that been a new rule? I could’ve sworn I saw somewhere you could pick player x 5

 

[dogwatch]

Has that been a new rule? I could’ve sworn I saw somewhere you could pick player x 5

No it’s always been thus. See post #3 of this thread (Sorry I can’t link it on my mobile). Maximum of three times per player.

I’m happy to review it for next year if there’s interest but not changing it for 2021.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

No it’s always been thus. See post #3 of this thread (Sorry I can’t link it on my mobile). Maximum of three times per player.

I’m happy to review it for next year if there’s interest but not changing it for 2021.

All good. I’ve read the 5 x 1 wrong. I’ll correct my selections later

 

[lateniter]

Bont
Scott
English
Vandermeer
Johannisen

Thanks