Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

I have no idea what is going on at Richmond. It looks like the same match committee of last year are running the show.
Rioli Jnr got 4 possessions last week and 1 goals. Yet miraculously stays in.
Mansell got 6 possessions and missed a sitter, and stays in. Pressure maybe, both had 1 tackle.
Both would not get a game in any side in the league.

You're convinced that 17 coaches in the league would pick Cumberland over Mansell. But 3 consecutive coaches have preferred Mansell to Cumberland. It's exceedingly unlikely that Richmond by luck got the 3 coaches that rate Mansell and not Cumberland.

My guess is that the vast majority of coaches in the league would pick Mansell over Cumberland and that Cumberland has massive flaws in his game. Chances are we'll soon find out if other coaches in the league rate him because unless something drastically changes he won't be at Richmond next year.

 

[Grrr]

You're convinced that 17 coaches in the league would pick Cumberland over Mansell. But 3 consecutive coaches have preferred Mansell to Cumberland. It's exceedingly unlikely that Richmond by luck got the 3 coaches that rate Mansell and not Cumberland.

My guess is that the vast majority of coaches in the league would pick Mansell over Cumberland and that Cumberland has massive flaws in his game. Chances are we'll soon find out if other coaches in the league rate him because unless something drastically changes he won't be at Richmond next year.

I bet they wouldn't.

What are these massive flaws. He kicks goals, he tackles, he makes things happen around the ball, he is very aggressive, he is a very good mark for his size. His flaws are that he doesn't always concentrate, gets a bit down on himself when he makes a mistake, didn't play to Hardwick/McQualters structures, that's about it. Even the detractors on the Richmond board will agree with what I'm saying. If you know better after watching every VFL and AFL match he has played, like most of us have, then do tell.

But even so, he has done way more than Mansell and Rioli, at both AFL and VFL level, that is not even disputable.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

You're convinced that 17 coaches in the league would pick Cumberland over Mansell. But 3 consecutive coaches have preferred Mansell to Cumberland. It's exceedingly unlikely that Richmond by luck got the 3 coaches that rate Mansell and not Cumberland.

My guess is that the vast majority of coaches in the league would pick Mansell over Cumberland and that Cumberland has massive flaws in his game. Chances are we'll soon find out if other coaches in the league rate him because unless something drastically changes he won't be at Richmond next year.

Two things can be true though, and FWIW, I do agree that Cumberland clearly has flaws in his game, or he'd actually be playing otherwise.

The Cumberland/Greene/Stengle/Cameron comparisons are ridiculous, he'll never make an AA side like all of those guys have.

With that being said, he's still certainly a better footballer than Mansell, and probably MRJ.

Mansell would be up there as one of the worst players in the league to regularly be getting games. It's not exactly a high bar, but Cumberland has him well covered.

Cumberland has at least shown the ability to be a contributor, and at a stretch a match winner.

Mansell has shown he's Jason Castagna lite, and that's saying something.

 

[Grrr]

Two things can be true though, and FWIW, I do agree that Cumberland clearly has flaws in his game, or he'd actually be playing otherwise.

The Cumberland/Greene/Stengle/Cameron comparisons are ridiculous, he'll never make an AA side like all of those guys have.

With that being said, he's still certainly a better footballer than Mansell, and probably MRJ.

Mansell would be up there as one of the worst players in the league to regularly be getting games. It's not exactly a high bar, but Cumberland has him well covered.

I'll concede the Cumberland Green / Cameron thing was wrong. (Stengle, who would ever have imagined he would have gone AA.)

 

[Footy Smarts]

Ralphsmith is a bust. I can name half a dozen easily at Richmond who are in the same boat after Yze has a good look at them.
Cumberland will get his chance if he fires in the VFL, and if he doesn't then not good enough. But he has runs on the board so I'm backing him in over a lot of other very ordinary footballers.

Ralphsmith brought into the squad vs Port. Still no Cumberland. Is Yze just trolling?

 

[Grrr]

Ralphsmith brought into the squad vs Port. Still no Cumberland. Is Yze just trolling?

Just trolling me.
He won't play, they add their names to squads like this just to keep them interested.

We have lost backs and mids, no place for Cumberland with such names and Rioli and Mansell keeping him out.
Bit of luck, Lynch will go down, open the door for him.

 

[The 747]

I bet they wouldn't.

What are these massive flaws. He kicks goals, he tackles, he makes things happen around the ball, he is very aggressive, he is a very good mark for his size. His flaws are that he doesn't always concentrate, gets a bit down on himself when he makes a mistake, didn't play to Hardwick/McQualters structures, that's about it. Even the detractors on the Richmond board will agree with what I'm saying. If you know better after watching every VFL and AFL match he has played, like most of us have, then do tell.

But even so, he has done way more than Mansell and Rioli, at both AFL and VFL level, that is not even disputable.

If I recall Hardwick last year explained that Cumberland plays Dusty's role and there was only room for one of those in the side.

 

[Grrr]

If I recall Hardwick last year explained that Cumberland plays Dusty's role and there was only room for one of those in the side.

I'll take 2 Dusties (and throw in a Bolton) in my forward line any day.

 

[The 747]

I'll take 2 Dusties (and throw in a Bolton) in my forward line any day.

Sure, but it seems Dimma didn't think so, and neither did McQualter and neither does Yze.

 

[Mr Meow]

If I recall Hardwick last year explained that Cumberland plays Dusty's role and there was only room for one of those in the side.

That's alarming then because he doesn't seem to play when Dusty misses either.

Anyway let's see if young Ralphsmith can turn things around if he's given the chance.

 

[Pomsta]

At least we should see how the future looks this week. With Hopper and Broad now out as well we will definitely see Miller, Tresize and Brown in the backline plus Lefau getting his first game. Should be interesting.

 

[The 747]

That's alarming then because he doesn't seem to play when Dusty misses either.

Anyway let's see if young Ralphsmith can turn things around if he's given the chance.

He's looked pretty handy whenever I have seen him play, so maybe it's something where they ask him to do something and he isn't doing it.

 

[STPer18]

These rebuilds are pretty easy.

 

[MisterMarcus]

 

[Grrr]

These rebuilds are pretty easy.

That's it, just take 5 of your best 22 out and Bob's your uncle.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think it's pretty simple: despite the pre-season pessimism Geelong is still all-in for one final year on finishing as high on the ladder as possible, a last dance season. Because while there's been some reasonable signs of what the future holds, I don't have much hope of us being better in 2025/26 than we are this year.

We'll lose a stack of experience, but that also brings salary cap flexibility, where Geelong has proven to spend its money wisely. I can't recall many big money gambles that have misfired, our bad calls over the years have tended to be very low-risk in terms of draft picks and salary. So I'm expecting a decent showing this year, pass mark is first or second week of finals for me. But I'm expecting the next two years to be pretty lean.

Richmond, on the other hand, would probably be hoping that 2024 is as bad as they get and that they can start climbing the ladder from next year, so if they can sneak into the eight this year they've done well and they'll similarly be able to hit the draft and make a couple of targeted free agent splashes as big name veterans finish their careers.

I am reasonably bullish about the Cats' future as I think we've had encouraging results from the five drafts between 2018-22, with a number of established senior players in that group, especially if you include Bruhn and O. Henry who were drafted by their original clubs in that period and we coughed up good picks to secure them.

From the 2023 draft Shaun Mannagh has looked pretty close to establishing himself as a senior player already, granted he's not 18, but similarly he was taken in the second half of a draft that wasn't expected to have much depth.

We'll have to rely on some more fringe types to become senior players and consistent performers soon: the likes of Shannon Neale, Toby Conway, Oisin Mullin. It's not like we've just got the next Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

35

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

, Tom Stewart or Patrick Dangerfield kicking around in the VFL, but if we get good results again in the next couple of offseasons, I think we'll be in decent shape.

 

[juss]

This week we're bringing in a debutant, 2 guys playing their 2nd AFL game, a 7 gamer and a 25 gamer.

If Gibcus and Sonsie were available they'd also be in the team, and we're giving games to guys like Ross, Dow, Maurice Rioli, Campbell also who are inexperienced.

You can see the relative stage we are at compared to Geelong who are probably as the poster above mentioned having one last roll of the dice.

But I think Yze is taking a balanced approach in not throwing them all in at once to lose by 10 goals every week. He's rebuilding without consigning us to the wooden spoon right from the start.

 

[BrokenDoogle]

The Cats just keep finding players with late picks. Stephen Wells is the master plain and simple.

Geelong by the length of the Flemington straight.

 

[PhatBoy]

This week we're bringing in a debutant, 2 guys playing their 2nd AFL game, a 7 gamer and a 25 gamer.

If Gibcus and Sonsie were available they'd also be in the team, and we're giving games to guys like Ross, Dow, Maurice Rioli, Campbell also who are inexperienced.

You can see the relative stage we are at compared to Geelong who are probably as the poster above mentioned having one last roll of the dice.

But I think Yze is taking a balanced approach in not throwing them all in at once to lose by 10 goals every week. He's rebuilding without consigning us to the wooden spoon right from the start.

This keeps getting said each year and I do understand why. I get it.

But the club has made it clear that it isn’t going to have that attitude.

I think if we kept trying and it just became clear after 2, maybe 3 seasons of missing finals that it just isn’t working, we’d probably accept it, but as cliched as it sounds it’s just been stated enough times that like Sydney it’s not ‘the Geelong way.’

 

[Sphynx]

The Cats just keep finding players with late picks. Stephen Wells is the master plain and simple.

Geelong by the length of the Flemington straight.

Nah, I think the Cats are in a dangerous spot right now.

They are were they are because of a core of absolute elite senior players like Hawkins, Cameron, Stewart, Blicavs, Dangerfield, Tuohy. All well into their 30’s.

Whilst Holmes, Miers, SDK, Henry are good young players they are probably good but not great and likely to settle mid table after the above list of senior players retire. As about 10 clubs can attest to over the last 15 years, it’s the worst place to be.

 

[My Tilly]

We'll have to rely on some more fringe types to become senior players and consistent performers soon: the likes of Shannon Neale, Toby Conway, Oisin Mullin. It's not like we've just got the next Tom Hawkins, Tom Stewart or Patrick Dangerfield kicking around in the VFL, but if we get good results again in the next couple of offseasons, I think we'll be in decent shape.

Conway isn't a fringe type. He is about to become our number one ruckman for the next decade. The kid is going to be a star. Takes marks and has sublime tap skills. Just needs to build up his tank. Stanley has had flashes here and there but never been a consistent 30 hitouts, 4-5 clearances per game ruckman.

 

[juss]

This keeps getting said each year and I do understand why. I get it.

But the club has made it clear that it isn’t going to have that attitude.

I think if we kept trying and it just became clear after 2, maybe 3 seasons of missing finals that it just isn’t working, we’d probably accept it, but as cliched as it sounds it’s just been stated enough times that like Sydney it’s not ‘the Geelong way.’

It's not cliched as it's been working for you.

Until it doesn't, which will happen eventually whether it's with Chris Scott or the next coach, but for now the Geelong approach is working.

I do think everything has a sunset though, even if Geelong have been excellent at extending their daylight hours.

 

[PhatBoy]

It's not cliched as it's been working for you.

Until it doesn't, which will happen eventually whether it's with Chris Scott or the next coach, but for now the Geelong approach is working.

I do think everything has a sunset though, even if Geelong have been excellent at extending their daylight hours.

That’s fair. I just don’t think there has ever been like an off season review where they have said ‘do we have one more crack’ as opposed to the club mantra being set in stone: we ALWAYS have a crack.

 

[Footy Smarts]

This week we're bringing in a debutant, 2 guys playing their 2nd AFL game, a 7 gamer and a 25 gamer.

If Gibcus and Sonsie were available they'd also be in the team, and we're giving games to guys like Ross, Dow, Maurice Rioli, Campbell also who are inexperienced.

You can see the relative stage we are at compared to Geelong who are probably as the poster above mentioned having one last roll of the dice.

But I think Yze is taking a balanced approach in not throwing them all in at once to lose by 10 goals every week. He's rebuilding without consigning us to the wooden spoon right from the start.

The demographics of the teams are almost identical. The only difference is that Geelong's getting a bit more out of their older players and miles more out of their younger players. It's enough that they might have a chance to compete this year while Richmond look a bit off the pace (I think they're decent at full strength but lack depth).

Richmond have picked every 50+ gamer that's available in every match so far. Geelong has left out Bews and Parfitt already this year. Last week Richmond had 1 sub 15 gamer. Last night Geelong had 4.

There's no logical argument that Richmond is rebuilding any more than Geelong while Geelong is playing more kids in bigger roles. Unless you think a team needs to lose matches to be rebuilding.

 

[juss]

The demographics of the teams are almost identical. The only difference is that Geelong's getting a bit more out of their older players and miles more out of their younger players. It's enough that they might have a chance to compete this year while Richmond look a bit off the pace (I think they're decent at full strength but lack depth).

Richmond have picked every 50+ gamer that's available in every match so far. Geelong has left out Bews and Parfitt already this year. Last week Richmond had 1 sub 15 gamer. Last night Geelong had 4.

There's no logical argument that Richmond is rebuilding any more than Geelong while Geelong is playing more kids in bigger roles. Unless you think a team needs to lose matches to be rebuilding.

I think Richmond are recognising we need a fair bit of list work to contend again, I'm not sure how Geelong rate themselves internally.

Also, a rebuild isn't linear necessarily, us losing games now when we aren't in contention is not a bad thing, and winning more games doesn't mean a club is in contention necessarily either.

It's easy to look right now and say this club is winning more games now and therefore this club is better, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to what the fortunes will be in 3, 5, 7 years time.

Regardless of what other clubs are doing, we've got a lot of list work to do but I'm liking some of the signs at this early stage of Yze's time.

Got to remember he's inherited a team with a very different strategy, Hardwick wanted a shot at a flag last year and Yze needs to correct that false estimation of our group. Compare that to Chris Scott who's owned the team for 15 years.