Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

I think Richmond are recognising we need a fair bit of list work to contend again, I'm not sure how Geelong rate themselves internally.

Also, a rebuild isn't linear necessarily, us losing games now when we aren't in contention is not a bad thing, and winning more games doesn't mean a club is in contention necessarily either.

It's easy to look right now and say this club is winning more games now and therefore this club is better, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to what the fortunes will be in 3, 5, 7 years time.

Regardless of what other clubs are doing, we've got a lot of list work to do but I'm liking some of the signs at this early stage of Yze's time.

Got to remember he's inherited a team with a very different strategy, Hardwick wanted a shot at a flag last year and Yze needs to correct that false estimation of our group. Compare that to Chris Scott who's owned the team for 15 years.

But that's not what his point was.

The point was simply that Geelong are playing as many young/inexperienced players as Richmond. And that we have a couple of experienced players in the VFL that are backup only.

Every year Geelong tries to make finals. It doesn't always work, like in 2023. But there's not some philosophy that players in the first half of their career should be ignored or are unimportant. There are key components in our team from each of the 3 age brackets (18-23, 24-29 and 30+).

 

[Daka]

But that's not what his point was.

The point was simply that Geelong are playing as many young/inexperienced players as Richmond. And that we have a couple of experienced players in the VFL that are backup only.

You might be playing as many young players as we are, but you guys are definitely playing a lot more older guys than we are which you have to factor in.

 

[Mr Meow]

You might be playing as many young players as we are, but you guys are definitely playing a lot more older guys than we are which you have to factor in.

Is that a fact?

Last night Geelong:

-7 players 30+ years old (2 locks for best 23 missing: 1 likely replaces Tuohy)
-10 players 24-28 years old (1 lock for best 23 missing: replaces Parfitt)
-6 players 18-23 years old (1 lock for best 23 missing: replaces Knevitt or Mullin)

Richmond tomorrow:

-6 players 30+ years old: (2 locks for best 23 missing: none replace a 30+)
-8 players 24-29 years old: (3 locks for best 23 missing: 1 replaces Miller, 2 replace kids)
-9 players 18-23 years old: (2 locks for best 23 missing: replace other kids)

So we have an extra lock in our best 23 from our players in their 30s. Due to injuries for both clubs we are still playing one more 30+ than Richmond. Then Richmond has more injuries to the players in their prime years currently, so they are forced to play a few more kids.

We both have 11 locks for best 22 for players in their prime years and we both have 6 players in the best 23 that come from the 18-23 year olds. You are going with 9 because of injuries.

So I have to ask you...is one a LOT?

 

[Daka]

Is that a fact?

Last night Geelong:

-7 players 30+ years old (2 locks for best 23 missing: 1 likely replaces Tuohy)
-10 players 24-28 years old (1 lock for best 23 missing: replaces Parfitt)
-6 players 18-23 years old (1 lock for best 23 missing: replaces Knevitt or Mullin)

Richmond tomorrow:

-6 players 30+ years old: (2 locks for best 23 missing: none replace a 30+)
-8 players 24-29 years old: (3 locks for best 23 missing: 1 replaces Miller, 2 replace kids)
-9 players 18-23 years old: (2 locks for best 23 missing: replace other kids)

So we have an extra lock in our best 23 from our players in their 30s. Due to injuries for both clubs we are still playing one more 30+ than Richmond. Then Richmond has more injuries to the players in their prime years currently, so they are forced to play a few more kids.

We both have 11 locks for best 22 for players in their prime years and we both have 6 players in the best 23 that come from the 18-23 year olds. You are going with 9 because of injuries.

So I have to ask you...is one a LOT?

Geelong have 4 players or something in the oldest 22 in the league Richmond have none.
And those players are still some of Geelong's best players.
Where our older players are usually not our best players.

 

[Mr Meow]

Geelong have 4 players or something in the oldest 22 in the league Richmond have none.
And those players are still some of Geelong's best players.
Where our older players are usually not our best players.

No, your verdict was Geelong are playing a lot more old players. Unless you are shifting "old" up from 30+ to 34, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

If our 34 year olds are playing better than your 31 year olds, it doesn't make a lick of difference. They'll be retiring around the same time. Don't be surprised if Cameron and Stewart are playing good footy at that age too. Blicavs hasn't lost a step.

We have better young players and old players. Our players in the prime bracket are performing a little better than most expected.

O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Miers, Z.Guthrie, Close, Stengle, J.Henry, Mullin, De Koning, Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Clark - it's not really an old group of players and in fact makes up the bulk of the team.

 

[Daka]

No, your verdict was Geelong are playing a lot more old players. Unless you are shifting "old" up from 30+ to 34, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

If our 34 year olds are playing better than your 31 year olds, it doesn't make a lick of difference. They'll be retiring around the same time. Don't be surprised if Cameron and Stewart are playing good footy at that age too. Blicavs hasn't lost a step.

We have better young players and old players. Our players in the prime bracket are performing a little better than most expected.

O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Miers, Z.Guthrie, Close, Stengle, J.Henry, Mullin, De Koning, Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Clark - it's not really an old group of players and in fact makes up the bulk of the team.

Your post even states it.
Richmond are playing more kids.
and Geelong playing more older players.

 

[Mr Meow]

Your post even states it.
Richmond are playing more kids.
and Geelong playing more older players.

What?

We are playing one more 30+ player. We have one more 30+ player in our locked in best 23. This is your definition of "a lot" because we have 34 year olds playing better than your 31 year olds.

You are playing more kids this week due to injuries.

Stop living in lala land.

Geelong has more important 18-23 year olds in their best team than Richmond does.

SDK, Holmes, Bruhn and O.Henry. Name yours. Note the word "important".

 

[Daka]

What?

We are playing one more 30+ player. We have one more 30+ player in our locked in best 23. This is your definition of "a lot" because we have 34 year olds playing better than your 31 year olds.

You are playing more kids this week due to injuries.

Stop living in lala land.

Geelong has more important 18-23 year olds in their best team than Richmond does.

SDK, Holmes, Bruhn and O.Henry. Name yours. Note the word "important".

2 of our injuries this week are Young & Gibcus?? are they old???
Prestia is the only one that is 30+

 

[Mr Meow]

2 of our injuries this week are Young & Gibcus?? are they old???
Prestia is the only one that is 30+

I noted your injuries. Broad and Prestia from the old players (seriously, why bother lying about information I can check in 2 seconds?). Hopper and Young from the middle group. Gibcus from the young players.

Geelong had Guthrie and Duncan from the old players. Rohan is debatable at this point, much like Tuohy is with everyone available. Atkins and Bowes injured from the middle group. Bruhn from the the young players.

So your thesis that Geelong are playing many more old players is based on there being one more player 30+ in our best 23. But because they're playing better, it's a problem.

And because our younger players are performing better, that's an issue too.

I'm really struggling to see how any of this makes sense.

 

[Daka]

I noted your injuries. Broad and Prestia from the old players (seriously, why bother lying about information I can check in 2 seconds?). Hopper and Young from the middle group. Gibcus from the young players.

Geelong had Guthrie and Duncan from the old players. Rohan is debatable at this point, much like Tuohy is with everyone available. Atkins and Bowes injured from the middle group. Bruhn from the the young players.

So your thesis that Geelong are playing many more old players is based on there being one more player 30+ in our best 23. But because they're playing better, it's a problem.

And because our younger players are performing better, that's an issue too.

I'm really struggling to see how any of this makes sense.

Broad & Hopper are late outs, not injuries from last weeks game.
And their both not our best players.

 

[Mr Meow]

Broad & Hopper are late outs, not injuries from last weeks game.
And their both not our best players.

They are both listed as injuries on the AFL website.

And you are STILL only playing one less player aged 30 or older than Geelong this weekend.

We are getting plenty from this group of players aged 26 or younger: O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Miers, Z.Guthrie, Close, Stengle, J.Henry, Mullin, De Koning, Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Dempsey and Clark.

Our 21-25 year old forwards ran rings around Adelaide last night. J.Henry, Zuthrie and SDK were strong in defence. Holmes good again.

From this age range of players Richmond haven't shown much. For a rebuild that's what matters. Balta as a 25 year old has been very good. Bolton remains a good goal sneak but is disappointing compared to his potential. There's really not much else.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong have 4 players or something in the oldest 22 in the league Richmond have none.
And those players are still some of Geelong's best players.
Where our older players are usually not our best players.

Doesn’t really matter too much if our old guys are still guns

Dangerfield has been BOG in one game and among them in another
Hawkins was the oldest player on the field last night and definitively broke the game open.
Not sure it’s the issue you think it is

 

[Mr Meow]

Doesn’t really matter too much if our old guys are still guns

Dangerfield has been BOG in one game and among them in another
Hawkins was the oldest player on the field last night and definitively broke the game open.
Not sure it’s the issue you think it is

It's a potential issue if there are a list of liability players aged 26 or under, i.e the ones that will be making up the veterans and prime aged players in the next 5 years. Arguably this was the case in 2016-2018 sort of times for Geelong.

Of course we have some incredible players retiring soon. But that's been the case for 15 years now. If there's a bunch of guys playing good, solid football or improving in the age brackets below that's all you want to see.

 

[PhatBoy]

It's a potential issue if there are a list of liability players aged 26 or under, i.e the ones that will be making up the veterans and prime aged players in the next 5 years. Arguably this was the case in 2016-2018 sort of times for Geelong.

Of course we have some incredible players retiring soon. But that's been the case for 15 years now. If there's a bunch of guys playing good, solid football or improving in the age brackets below that's all you want to see.

The only issue is a key forward. And yes it’s a big issue because as the saying goes, they don’t grow on trees, but that goes for every team and at any given time there might be 5-6 GENUINELY elite power forwards in the comp so teams for long periods just have to make do. I’d even argue that Cameron isn’t one - he’s obviously a key forward but he’s not a power forward or a particularly tall forward he’s just a slightly taller forward who can kick bags and is a superstar. And yes he too will need replacing at some point.

But that’s the are that will need a top up and there’s no escaping that.

The rest of the field I don’t doubt that we will just continue to recycle and replace guys because it’s what we do. We don’t wait to drop off and then hope that 3-4-5 years down the track, guys we’ve taken a punt on because they were good when they were 17 years old come good.

I’m happy to keep the faith.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Richmond are playing more kids.

Nope. The youngest 10 players between each team last week (Richmond players in bold). Geelong had 6 of the youngest 10.

Campbell (19y 76d)
Clark (19y 237d)
Gibcus (20y 345d)
Dempsey (21y 69d)
Rioli (21y 191d)
Holmes (21y 200d)
O Henry (21y 231d)
Bruhn (21y 294d)
Dow (22y 150d)
De Koning (23y 19d)

 

[Mr Meow]

Nope. The youngest 10 players between each team last week (Richmond players in bold). Geelong had 6 of the youngest 10.

Campbell (19y 76d)
Clark (19y 237d)
Gibcus (20y 345d)
Dempsey (21y 69d)
Rioli (21y 191d)
Holmes (21y 200d)
O Henry (21y 231d)
Bruhn (21y 294d)
Dow (22y 150d)
De Koning (23y 19d)

He's talking about this week because of injuries.

 

[SSSSSS]

Christ I just realised Richmond fielded a more experienced team last week than the Demons did today.

The Demons looked the part. Big developed bodies who pushed our young kids around. They look organised and composed without the ball.

I haven't seen that at all from Richmond this year.

Think they are in trouble.

 

[Taper]

Christ I just realised Richmond fielded a more experienced team last week than the Demons did today.

The Demons looked the part. Big developed bodies who pushed our young kids around. They look organised and composed without the ball.

I haven't seen that at all from Richmond this year.

Think they are in trouble.

Richmond could be headed for the abyss similar to where West Coast currently find themselves.
They sold the farm for Taranto and Hopper, similar to how West Coast sold the farm for Kelly.
I don't think Yze is going to survive for too long, not many rebuild coaches do.

 

[My Tilly]

Only 30k showed up at the G too. Pretty piss poor but typical of the Richmond faithful.

Their club is about to hit rock bottom for a very long time.

 

[Taper]

Only 30k showed up at the G too. Pretty piss poor but typical of the Richmond faithful.

Their club is about to hit rock bottom for a very long time.

Don't they have over 100k members?
Where are they all? Surely they're not all bandwagoners?
I'm sure the Richmond faithful will use the timeslot, opponent and cost of living as excuses.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Christ I just realised Richmond fielded a more experienced team last week than the Demons did today.

The Demons looked the part. Big developed bodies who pushed our young kids around. They look organised and composed without the ball.

I haven't seen that at all from Richmond this year.

Think they are in trouble.

To be fair to them they were good against Carlton. Went right to the wire while being down to 2 on the bench. And their mature players briefly threatened to challenge Port with Baker and Bolton having good days.

But their kids are just dire. Melbourne have guys like Windsor, McVee, van Rooyen, Bowey, Rivers and Pickett that have all shown plenty.

Most of Richmond's kids yesterday looked miles off the level. Brown and Campbell at least looked competitive and Campbell shows some talent. Banks, Dow, Trezise and Lefau could've been replaced with witches hats and been more effective.

 

[Pomsta]

To be fair to them they were good against Carlton. Went right to the wire while being down to 2 on the bench. And their mature players briefly threatened to challenge Port with Baker and Bolton having good days.

But their kids are just dire. Melbourne have guys like Windsor, McVee, van Rooyen, Bowey, Rivers and Pickett that have all shown plenty.

Most of Richmond's kids yesterday looked miles off the level. Brown and Campbell at least looked competitive and Campbell shows some talent. Banks, Dow, Trezise and Lefau could've been replaced with witches hats and been more effective.

Sort of agree with this. I thought that Trezise was okay, Ross also played well. Lefau has a long way to go, Banks got pushed off the ball way to easily and Dow just doesn't get to the ball. McAuliffe looked good in the 2s, as did Sonsie, and Clarke looked OK when he came on so there are some green shoots.

 

[evo]

The Tiges badly need a new young key forward. We arent going anywhere until we get an understudy for Lynch.

Our biggest mistake recently has been drafting too many small flanker types - we need more young genuine kpps and mids.

We have Adrian Dodoro virus!

 

[evo]

Sort of agree with this. I thought that Trezise was okay, Ross also played well. Lefau has a long way to go, Banks got pushed off the ball way to easily and Dow just doesn't get to the ball. McAuliffe looked good in the 2s, as did Sonsie, and Clarke looked OK when he came on so there are some green shoots.

Yep, amongst the kids we have too many small weak flanker types...all the same. Fingers crossed on McAulliffe, defintely need him to be good.

 

[BF Tiger]

Well, at the moment it is definitely Geelong. But this still has some time to play out.

Only 30k showed up at the G too. Pretty piss poor but typical of the Richmond faithful.

Their club is about to hit rock bottom for a very long time.

Don't they have over 100k members?
Where are they all? Surely they're not all bandwagoners?
I'm sure the Richmond faithful will use the timeslot, opponent and cost of living as excuses.

2023: 30,000 v Port at the MCG in the early slot on a Sunday (third best attendance league-wide).
2022: 22,000 v Port at the MCG on a Thursday night (third best attendance league-wide).
2021: no home game v Port.
2020: covid.
2019: 42,000 v Port on a Saturday afternoon.
2018: no home game v Port.
2017: no home game v Port.
2016: 27,000 v Port on a Saturday night at the MCG.

In short, s**t timeslot (mostly standard for Rich v Port) gets s**t crowds, compounded by the F1 Grand Prix being on the same day. Not excuses, there is nothing that needs excusing. Just explanations.