The Unofficial List Management thread... :-)

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Surely we will go to the draft and pick kids,it's the proven way to improve long term.
Shortcuts get you nowhere except mid table mediocrity

I think that depends on the quality of the draft and what you mean by short cuts.

If you mean Vickeries and Hendersons vs Burtons, Hardwicks and Sicilies, I agree.

If you means O'Mearas, Mitchells and Gunstons vs the Miles' and Willsmores, I disagree...

 

[Walshawk]

I think that depends on the quality of the draft and what you mean by short cuts.

If you mean Vickeries and Hendersons vs Burtons, Hardwicks and Sicilies, I agree.

If you means O'Mearas, Mitchells and Gunstons vs the Miles' and Willsmores, I disagree...

I think stuffing up draft picks is far less detrimental than stuffing up trades. Drafting a kid on minimum wage who spends 3/4 years in the system and doesn't make it (Muston, Dowler, Willsmore, etc) has minimal affect on the playing group. Bringing in a trade (Vickery, Thomas) can affect the group in various ways - salary cap pressure, pressure to play them even if out of form, keeping other players out. It carries more risk, even if only from the outside. At the same time, it should be safer, as there should be fewer unknowns (although this is not always the case - Yarran, Hay).

 

[ahhhhhh]

I think stuffing up draft picks is far less detrimental than stuffing up trades. Drafting a kid on minimum wage who spends 3/4 years in the system and doesn't make it (Muston, Dowler, Willsmore, etc) has minimal affect on the playing group. Bringing in a trade (Vickery, Thomas) can affect the group in various ways - salary cap pressure, pressure to play them even if out of form, keeping other players out. It carries more risk, even if only from the outside. At the same time, it should be safer, as there should be fewer unknowns (although this is not always the case - Yarran, Hay).

Vickery was not a trade

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I think stuffing up draft picks is far less detrimental than stuffing up trades. Drafting a kid on minimum wage who spends 3/4 years in the system and doesn't make it (Muston, Dowler, Willsmore, etc) has minimal affect on the playing group. Bringing in a trade (Vickery, Thomas) can affect the group in various ways - salary cap pressure, pressure to play them even if out of form, keeping other players out. It carries more risk, even if only from the outside. At the same time, it should be safer, as there should be fewer unknowns (although this is not always the case - Yarran, Hay).

The strike rate is much better for us in trading though. Our record of success with high draft picks over the last decade or so has been a bit sad. Our record of trading for players (Mitchell, Gibson, Hale, Gunston, Lake et al) is vastly superior to early round drafting.

 

[Billyc]

the elite talent is in the 1st round after that luck kicks in
we need more burtons and less list cloggers the later picks get you,unless you luck out.
there is plenty of list cloggers on our list now.

Guys like Schoenmakers, O Rourke and Vickery...all first round draft picks.

The draft is a lottery.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Guys like Schoenmakers, O Rourke and Vickery...all first round draft picks.

The draft is a lottery.

Thankfully hawthorn figured this out i reckon around 2009 when we started trading for a player every year and going to the draft with later picks.

Clubs who are obsessed with getting multiple high picks each year are naive IMO.

 

[Furn2]

The top 5 in draft is very good but your odds fall away pretty quickly after that, even the 6-10 region can be pretty hit and miss.

If you can trade for a 21-23 year old proven player, its madness not to do it. Especially if you aren't in the top 5.

You could take 10 pick 14s and maybe hit 1 player as good was Tom.

 

[Gralin]

I think stuffing up draft picks is far less detrimental than stuffing up trades. Drafting a kid on minimum wage who spends 3/4 years in the system and doesn't make it (Muston, Dowler, Willsmore, etc) has minimal affect on the playing group. Bringing in a trade (Vickery, Thomas) can affect the group in various ways - salary cap pressure, pressure to play them even if out of form, keeping other players out. It carries more risk, even if only from the outside. At the same time, it should be safer, as there should be fewer unknowns (although this is not always the case - Yarran, Hay).

think about the holes we had in our list over the 2009-2012 period from some bad drafting combined with unexpected retirements, trades

 

[Mrzohs]

don't get me wrong you need a combo of draft picks and good trading to win flags
but the draft is a lottery at best there is no certainty they will play 100 games if not 200 games for your club.
you elimante less risk buy picking up proven players from other teams or young guys who have been in the system.

geelong, sydney, hawthorn, models are as such, successful over 10+ years without botteming out,
8 out of the last 10 flags come from these 3 teams how many top 10 picks in each side.
the only team to bottem out that looks likely in yrs to come is melbourne. they had to bottem out for over 5yrs.

 

[randall boner]

don't get me wrong you need a combo of draft picks and good trading to win flags
but the draft is a lottery at best there is no certainty they will play 100 games if not 200 games for your club.
you elimante less risk buy picking up proven players from other teams or young guys who have been in the system.

geelong, sydney, hawthorn, models are as such, successful over 10+ years without botteming out,
8 out of the last 10 flags come from these 3 teams how many top 10 picks in each side.
the only team to bottem out that looks likely in yrs to come is melbourne. they had to bottem out for over 5yrs.

carlton on the same path but they have been at it even longer

 

[Yardie]

So have we delisted the entire team and coaching staff yet?

Yes we have and the CEO. Now targeting the marketing department.

 

[OnTheRocks]

Yes we have and the CEO. Now targeting the marketing department.

Members next?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Members next?

There's some bigfooty posters that need to go first (not directed at you!).

 

[Nugett]

Yes we have and the CEO. Now targeting the marketing department.

Awesome their goes the liquid lunch. Bunch of killjoys

 

[Nugett]

There's some bigfooty posters that need to go first (not directed at you!).

I can see myself out sniffs

 

[HODGEYROAD]

The top 5 in draft is very good but your odds fall away pretty quickly after that, even the 6-10 region can be pretty hit and miss.

If you can trade for a 21-23 year old proven player, its madness not to do it. Especially if you aren't in the top 5.

You could take 10 pick 14s and maybe hit 1 player as good was Tom.

Agree with this 100%, another reason I'm happy we aren't giving up a top 5 pick to the Saints this year also.

 

[Walshawk]

Vickery was not a trade

Yes we all know that. The point remains valid.

 

[Thaihawk]

Has anyone taken the time to analyse, say the drafts from 2008 to 20012 and see where each player stands today. Might give it a go to fill in time. I have no idea what the results will show, but I feel there are kids who could have reached their ceiling at 18-20, others who decide AFL is too difficult and others who don't like the club that drafted them. I will report back with my findings.

 

[arupist]

Has anyone taken the time to analyse, say the drafts from 2008 to 20012 and see where each player stands today. Might give it a go to fill in time. I have no idea what the results will show, but I feel there are kids who could have reached their ceiling at 18-20, others who decide AFL is too difficult and others who don't like the club that drafted them. I will report back with my findings.

Look forward to your report, TH. Must be great to have so much time to spare on such projects.

 

[ScottMaginness]

the elite talent is in the 1st round after that luck kicks in
we need more burtons and less list cloggers the later picks get you,unless you luck out.
there is plenty of list cloggers on our list now.

Someone like Tippet is the ultimate list clogger. Consumes a large percentage of the salary cap on a long contract, spends half the year injured or out of form and isn't likely to improve.

 

[ScottMaginness]

If you means O'Mearas, Mitchells and Gunstons vs the Miles' and Willsmores, I disagree...

I still have hopes for Miles. If we had not had so many injuries in defence, Hardwick may have spent the year at Box Hill and his name would be getting thrown up as well.

Willsmore I wouldn't mind keeping as a rookie. We are lacking players who can kick goals from outside 50 from a set shot and that makes a lot of our forward thrusts very predictable.

 

[arupist]

Someone like Tippet is the ultimate list clogger. Consumes a large percentage of the salary cap on a long contract, spends half the year injured or out of form and isn't likely to improve.

He always plays well against us. Have seen some superb palm-offs to Cyril. Generates a lot of scoring opportunities for us.

 

[Thaihawk]

Look forward to your report, TH. Must be great to have so much time to spare on such projects.

Plenty of time arupist, but lacking motivation, and have a bad case of procrastinitis.

I probably selected a bad cross section with the introduction of two new teams, but so be it. I have just looked at the selected drafts, and I think all those pushing for early draft picks will be shocked. Anyway, back work.

 

[Mojo]

Cameron Bruce departs Hawthorn for Carlton, also.

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-08-22/bruce-to-join-blues

Changes are coming. We best be prepared for her when she does.

 

[HolyRioli]

Has anyone taken the time to analyse, say the drafts from 2008 to 20012 and see where each player stands today. Might give it a go to fill in time. I have no idea what the results will show, but I feel there are kids who could have reached their ceiling at 18-20, others who decide AFL is too difficult and others who don't like the club that drafted them. I will report back with my findings.

I actually have done something similar before. Here's a list of players drafted 2008 - 2013. I've included the first round for each year.

1: Watts, Scully, Swallow, Patton, Whitfield, Boyd
2: Naitanui, Trengove, Bennell, Coniglio, O'Rourke, Kelly
3: Hill, Martin, Day, Tyson, Plowman, Billings
4: Harlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli
5: Hurley, Cunnington, Polec, Buntine, Stringer, Kolodjashnij
6: Yarran, Rohan, Conca, Wingard, Macrae, Scharenberg
7: Rich, Shepperd, Caddy, Haynes, Wines, Aish
8: Vickery, Butcher, Heppell, Longer, Mayes, McDonald
9: Ziebell, Moore, Prestia, Tomlinson, Vlastuin, Salem
10: Davis, Melksham, Gorringe, Sumner, Daniher (F/S), Freeman
11: Sidebottom, Gysberts, Lynch, Greene, Menzel, Sheed
12: Johnston, Lucas, Cook, Docherty, Jaksch, Lennon
13: Lynch, Talia, Tape, Adams, Lonergan, Cripps
14: Cordy (F/S), Jetta, B Smith, D Smith, Corr, McCarthy
15: Brown, Howard, Smedts, Ellis, Garner, Jones
16: Schoenmakers, Pittard, B Jacobs, Sheridan, Thurlow, Lang
17: Blease, Menzel, Atley, C Smith, Simpson, Apeness
18: Shuey, Tapscott, Watson, McKenzie, Grundy, Dunstan

So, from that 6 years of first round picks, a total of 108 players:
32 are either duds, career ended prematurely by injury, or realised a far lower return than their draft pick warrants. 20 of these were after pick 10
17 I have the jury out on
59 have gone on to have acceptable careers, or are looking like they will. That's a strik rate of 55%, rising to 60% in the first 10

Horrible odds in my opinion