List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 5

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I know we all say "with a longer off season, we should come back fresh, reinvigorated and hopefully have a better run with injuries in 2022...".

Even if we do, with all our guns North of 30, and 2 years older than they were when they won the flag, it's exceedingly more likely that they'll be falling below their premiership winning form, than regaining it .

I'm with RJKTiger on this one, and I think we'll know fairly early in the season if we're a threat, or past it. If we lose to the Blues round 1, I'd almost put a line through us there and then.

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Blues should be favorites and should win round 1 no excuses

They’ve had 20 years of top 10 draft picks
 
I don't. Our first half of 2021 was not great & there was a lot of us that noticed it. We played in spurts. The injuries make it hard to gauge accurately, but in several games we saw teams rag doll us for quarters at a time - we were never a top 4 team in any shape or form.

If you have Kayo you can go back and watch it yourself. It was not great
You’re spot on. We were very average in the first half of the year. But I think in ‘19 and ‘20, mainly due to injuries, we weren’t that great either.
 
Could not find this sort of analysis elsewhere so here goes.

I analyzed team's list sizes and compared them to the number of draft picks they hold.

Surprisingly, Richmond is the only team with more picks than list spots after trade week so I looked at other clubs to see if we can package some picks up to move up the order.

A few assumptions.

  • No further delistings (not likely)
  • No delisted free agents are listed(not likely)
  • Some rookies will be promoted.(not likely)
  • Some main list players will move to the rookie list (not likely)
  • Future picks are not considered
  • Pick trades based on points value
  • Coll and WB may be considered but it is unknown what picks they will use for F/S
  • Late-breaking…further list changes at Tigerland. Assume 3 rookies promoted to offset Garthwaite delisting and Cumberland/Biggy move to rookie list


The first 4 assumptions could arguably cancel each other out however for the sake of discussion this is what I found.

I have listed the clubs having picks we might be interested in.




[TD valign="bottom"]
Ess[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]Only 3 picks 6 list spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Have Pick 11[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Fre[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]only 5 picks 6 list spots[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]Have picks 6 or 8 or 19[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]
Gee[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]5 picks 9 list spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Have pick 22[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]
GC[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]1 pick 5 list spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Have Pick 3[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]
Haw[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]5 picks 11 spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Have picks 5 , 21 , 24[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]
Stk[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]4 picks 7 list spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Have Pick 9[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]
WC[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]4 picks 7 list spots[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Pick 10 , 29[/TD][TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"][/TD]

Given so many list spots are available and Richmond has an excess of picks I argue that we are in the best position and do not need to benefit other teams points-wise.

So, I think getting one of Fremantle's picks is unlikely as we would have to offer better than points value and they only have 1 more list spot than picks.

For example,

I found GC interesting having 1 pick (3) and nothing else so we could target pick 3 by
26.28,38,40 (2300 points) for pick 3 (2234) Richmond pick 3, 7 15
Or 15,28,38 (2254 points. Richmond Pick 3, 7 26, 40

What do you think? We have a powerful draft hand, particularly given the number of clubs needing more picks.
That was a hell of a lot of work, but kinda pointless when every club gets enough draft picks to fill all the available spots on their list.
We just have as many rounds of the draft as is needed and the clubs with available spots will keep getting a pick, even if they are the only club in that round
 
Not short sighted ,,,much , r1 your final assessment fmd , ok
I said *almost* put a line through us... I mean, come into round 1 off a nice long off season break, put our best team out there, and get beaten by the Blues? Hardly screams "we're back", does it.

But yes, we won't really have a clear idea till the bye, but we'll know fairly early if the signs are pointing to solid rebound, or a continuation of 2021.

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I don't know whether it was just "our confidence was shot" I think it was more that the whole team was just knackered, added to that the fact that our backline was decimated and it's easy to see why the team just couldn't do it. The comp is just so even that if you're off just 10% then you're not competitive.
They changed our bye and the Eagles as well
We were both supposed to have a bye after round 12
Then on the weekend of the game against essendon
Afl changed it ,,any coincidence that both teams
Went to s**t after that game ???
 
Marlion Pickett is a $250,000 a year player at best. Anything more and we are just wasting money in our salary cap.
Yes we should harpoon a bloke who's played 40 games through a bulk of a pandemic crisis in his country and sport. I think marlion might be the least if our problems heading into 2022.
 

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You’re spot on. We were very average in the first half of the year. But I think in ‘19 and ‘20, mainly due to injuries, we weren’t that great either.
Just working my way through 2019 each week and up to r6. Our pressure was through the roof regardless of the injuries. Ross was racking up possessions (poor decisions at times), Bolton was showing a lot, and even Garth tonight in the Freo game did OK.

The difference was the manic pressure. That's my point and hope for next year. It's not our ageing stars losing their mojo, this year there wasn't the buyin of previous years. In 19 & 20, there were games it wasn't there in the the 1st half, but eventually the group found it and overrun teams to win games. This year it was mostly lacking all season. Injuries to the senior players and the BS travel with no crowds I think caused the players to write 2021 off.

Whether they can get it back on track next year is up the coaching staff as a 1st goal.
 
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