Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Andre]

The problem, IMO, is not that the West doesn't want Ukraine to win, it's HOW they want them to win. They want Russia to pack up and go home of their own free will, rather than suffer large defeats, for the mentioned reasons of they fear the collapse of the Russian state. If Russia limps back across the border, rather than a full on retreat, they think Putin or a similar replacement, will be contained and Ukraine can integrate further with the West.

On the one hand, if they can get past the Republicans infighting, it could work over a 1-2 year time frame, as those stores of old tanks, APV, IFV's and artillery are depleted, leading to Ukraine having a quantitative, as well as qualitative advantage, to push the Russians back. The other side of course, is it relies on the continued Western support, leads to much more Ukraine deaths and even though there's a very low chance Putin will use a Tactical nuke any particular month, more months means more chance of one.

I think it's a shit plan, it's obvious to Russia that the West isn't going to come and bomb inside Russia, that they can withdraw without issue. They have control over their media, so they can spin it as mission accomplished, they killed all the Nazi's so now it's all good. Russia has only ever understood and respected one thing in an opponent - strength. Only showing strength will cause them to realise they can't win and the cost isn't worth it. This middle road of 'just enough' just results in Putin/Russia thinking they can outwait the West.

 

[LittleG]

Land mines are the biggest issue.

They take time to find and disarm. You are likely to be under fire the whole time.

Unless there is a new weapon that can take out large areas of mines quickly, then Ukraine can’t advance. Without being able to gain their territory back, Russia won’t ever leave.

 

[Zidane98]

The problem, IMO, is not that the West doesn't want Ukraine to win, it's HOW they want them to win. They want Russia to pack up and go home of their own free will, rather than suffer large defeats, for the mentioned reasons of they fear the collapse of the Russian state. If Russia limps back across the border, rather than a full on retreat, they think Putin or a similar replacement, will be contained and Ukraine can integrate further with the West.

On the one hand, if they can get past the Republicans infighting, it could work over a 1-2 year time frame, as those stores of old tanks, APV, IFV's and artillery are depleted, leading to Ukraine having a quantitative, as well as qualitative advantage, to push the Russians back. The other side of course, is it relies on the continued Western support, leads to much more Ukraine deaths and even though there's a very low chance Putin will use a Tactical nuke any particular month, more months means more chance of one.

I think it's a s**t plan, it's obvious to Russia that the West isn't going to come and bomb inside Russia, that they can withdraw without issue. They have control over their media, so they can spin it as mission accomplished, they killed all the Nazi's so now it's all good. Russia has only ever understood and respected one thing in an opponent - strength. Only showing strength will cause them to realise they can't win and the cost isn't worth it. This middle road of 'just enough' just results in Putin/Russia thinking they can outwait the West.

Yes, Putin should be allowed the option to withdraw completely and declare it a victory to Russia to satisfy his ego. I'm sure Zelensky would be on board with that.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Yes, Putin should be allowed the option to withdraw completely and declare it a victory to Russia to satisfy his ego. I'm sure Zelensky would be on board with that.

We'll even throw in a Eurovision Song Contest trophy for Vlad, just to sweeten the deal.

 

[Jello_B]

Aren’t there other options?
Ukraine cede some territory and Russia allow Ukraine to join NATO?
The west might have more and better stuff to bomb things with but Russia has the stomach.

 

[faible]

Aren’t there other options?
Ukraine cede some territory and Russia allow Ukraine to join NATO?
The west might have more and better stuff to bomb things with but Russia has the stomach.

I don't see Putin accepting any deal that sees Ukraine have NATO membership, since it would curtail any future landgrabs he plans.

 

[Jello_B]

I don't see Putin accepting any deal that sees Ukraine have NATO membership, since it would curtail any future landgrabs he plans.

It’s an option I would be trying to mediate between the two. Both will hate it but may begrudgingly accept given they can stop the war. Both could sell it as “protecting the long term interests of their people”.
Russia have more of a buffer state between them and the west.
Ukraine have security of being part of NATO.

 

[faible]

It’s an option I would be trying to mediate between the two. Both will hate it but may begrudgingly accept given they can stop the war. Both could sell it as “protecting the long term interests of their people”.
Russia have more of a buffer state between them and the west.
Ukraine have security of being part of NATO.

They already share borders with NATO states, they'll share more borders with NATO states thanks to their actions in Ukraine; they already bordered Latvia and Estonia, have added Finland, and Kaliningrad bordered Poland and Lithuania.

The whole 'oh we need a buffer from NATO' is total and utter BS.

 

[Jello_B]

They already share borders with NATO states, they'll share more borders with NATO states thanks to their actions in Ukraine; they already bordered Latvia and Estonia, have added Finland, and Kaliningrad bordered Poland and Lithuania.

The whole 'oh we need a buffer from NATO' is total and utter BS.

Sure, but that’s what has been sold to their people (along with the nazi rubbish). It’s a fair bit about perception now.
Russia doesn’t look like they are going to be able to take all of Ukraine.
Ukraine doesn’t look like they are going to be able to take back all of their territory.
It’s a stalemate.

 

[Millky95]

Sure, but that’s what has been sold to their people (along with the nazi rubbish). It’s a fair bit about perception now.
Russia doesn’t look like they are going to be able to take all of Ukraine.
Ukraine doesn’t look like they are going to be able to take back all of their territory.
It’s a stalemate.

Which with further western support can turn the tide to Ukraine's favour

Or a Putin body guard getting a conscience

 

[Jello_B]

Which with further western support can turn the tide to Ukraine's favour

Or a Putin body guard getting a conscience

Maybe. Pretty big risk that the west reduces its support as well. Anyways I’m not going to keep going with this line of thinking as I have posted my position throughout the war, which differs somewhat from the general consensus of the Board.
What I have seen on here, for over a year now from posters, is that Russia are hopeless, they don’t have any soldiers left, they are rolling out Holden Geminis as battle tanks, they’ll run out of weapons any day now. Just wait and Ukraine will overrun them. I’ve always been a little bit more cautious with this line of thinking. People can go back and read through the thread and see which posters have just been incredibly wrong.

Mobbs is a shining light here and I mainly come back to this thread every now and then to check what they have posted.

 

[Chief]

People can go back and read through the thread and see which posters have just been incredibly wrong.

In the end it doesn't matter that much, given none of us has any say in how anything goes.

 

[Jello_B]

In the end it doesn't matter that much, given none of us has any say in how anything goes.

Sure, it’s more for new entries to the thread that are reading some strong assertions from certain posters and may be attracted to those assertions as facts. Call me a public service

 

[FIGJAM]

In the end it doesn't matter that much, given none of us has any say in how anything goes.

As owner of BigFooty, you should probably not be alerting us to the fact that our inane ramblings are a complete waste of time!

 

[Chief]

As owner of BigFooty, you should probably not be alerting us to the fact that our inane ramblings are a complete waste of time!

Let's talk about that.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

I don't see Putin accepting any deal that sees Ukraine have NATO membership, since it would curtail any future landgrabs he plans.

Would it though? If Trump gets in next year, which is looking increasingly likely, his skepticism of NATO, and the subsequent potential for him to withdraw the U.S.'s membership, might derail it's overall efficacy.

I'm not certain that Putin would not at least test it's resolve if the U.S. is no longer a ley member.

 

[Visions]

Maybe. Pretty big risk that the west reduces its support as well. Anyways I’m not going to keep going with this line of thinking as I have posted my position throughout the war, which differs somewhat from the general consensus of the Board.
What I have seen on here, for over a year now from posters, is that Russia are hopeless, they don’t have any soldiers left, they are rolling out Holden Geminis as battle tanks, they’ll run out of weapons any day now. Just wait and Ukraine will overrun them. I’ve always been a little bit more cautious with this line of thinking. People can go back and read through the thread and see which posters have just been incredibly wrong.

Mobbs is a shining light here and I mainly come back to this thread every now and then to check what they have posted.

But they are hopeless against a modern day army, and have been shown up for what they really are compared to what everyone thought they were pre-invasion.

Russia are a one trick pony that relies on terrorism, this whole supposed second best army in the world with modern equipment and elite fighting forces are a myth as has been shown in Ukraine.

They would be no chance against the US in a conventional war, they wouldn't be a chance against NATO even if the US pulled out of the alliance, hell they wouldn't be a chance against Ukraine if the UAF had all the weaponry delivered it requested.

 

[Roos9699]

 

[Jello_B]

But they are hopeless against a modern day army, and have been shown up for what they really are compared to what everyone thought they were pre-invasion.

Russia are a one trick pony that relies on terrorism, this whole supposed second best army in the world with modern equipment and elite fighting forces are a myth as has been shown in Ukraine.

They would be no chance against the US in a conventional war, they wouldn't be a chance against NATO even if the US pulled out of the alliance, hell they wouldn't be a chance against Ukraine if the UAF had all the weaponry delivered it requested.

I don’t think anyone was under the illusion Russia would be able to stand up against the US Army in a conventional war.
And I agree with you in that I think expectations around what people thought Russia could do (just roll in to Kyiv and take it over with ease) compared to what they have been able to do are reset. The hyperbole in the other direction is what I was referring to. Anyways I’m adding no value being drawn into this again so I’ll side step and go back to reading Mobbs posts.

 

[jatz14]

I believe many western leaders are fearful of what outright Russian defeat looks like, they see a Russian coup, civil unrest and piss themselves becouse of all those nukes. So they do what it takes to stop Russia winning but never enough to allow Ukraine to win. They are fearful of Russian victory and also fearful of Russian defeat. Powerful old men who have no wish to alter the status quo that gave them power.

Biden in particular I see this way, he also faces a domestic facist opposition that would love a Russian victory. Olaf Scholz as well but he also pines for that sweet Russian gas, and the German people are peacenik, inclined to stick their heads in the sand and chant Nein Nein. Basically there are as many reasons for the wests collective lack of will as there are western countries.

But yes, some overarching western plan for a stalemate, not so much. Nevertheless there are undoubtedly some in the west to whom a stalemate which continues to grind down Russia is the least bad outcome.

But these outcomes are just as likely in a forever war as a defeat aren't they?

Putin could sign a deal Ukraine would accept, pull back, declare himself a statesman bringing peace. How is that more likely to lead to instability and breakup than losing 500 soldiers a day for no tangible gains for the next 2 years?



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[Visions]

Wouldn’t surprise considering the continued Avdiivka assaults.

That would be close to 30,000 for the month, basically 10% of the estimated upcoming mobilisation.

November was Russia's worst month for casualties since the war began, UK says | Semafor

Russia suffered its highest number of casualties per day in November since the start of its war with Ukraine, UK defense officials said, citing Ukrainian data. ​

An average of 931 Russian troops were killed or wounded per day this month, the UK Ministry of Defence said.

 

[Visions]

Becoming like Nth Korea every single day. Foreigners next target.

Foreigners entering Russia could be forced to sign ‘loyalty pledge’

The Russian interior ministry has proposed introducing a “loyalty pledge” that foreigners would have to sign on entering the country as the government considers even more stringent controls on public dissent amid its war in Ukraine.

The new rules would include prohibitions on criticism of the Russian state and top officials including Vladimir Putin, Kremlin foreign policy including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, discussion of LGBTQ+ issues and support for same-sex marriage, and “distortion of the historical truth about the feat of the Soviet people in the defence of the Fatherland and its contribution to the victory over fascism”.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

Vlad wants Russian mums to have big families:



I'm interested to see what ridiculous decrees he can sign to enforce this goal...

 

[Visions]

This is weird as Izium is about 60km behind front lines.

So either the Russian media have the incorrect town or they are trying to present some propaganda to convince the locals they are actually close to Izium.