Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

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Dec 22, 2009
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I don’t think anyone was under the illusion Russia would be able to stand up against the US Army in a conventional war.
And I agree with you in that I think expectations around what people thought Russia could do (just roll in to Kyiv and take it over with ease) compared to what they have been able to do are reset. The hyperbole in the other direction is what I was referring to. Anyways I’m adding no value being drawn into this again so I’ll side step and go back to reading Mobbs posts.

What hyperbole? Everyone realises that Russia has an overwhelming military advantage over Ukraine. That's obvious.

What is also clear is that war is affecting the lives of everyday Russians in a serious way. Eventually that discontent is going to reach a point where it can't be suppressed. Eg Wagner mutiny.

The longer the war goes on Russian airlines can't keep their planes in the air, Russian sports associations are banned etc etc the worse things get for Vlad.

The logical thing for him to do now is withdraw from all of Ukraine and declare a victory saying he successfully "defeated" the Ukranians and then just change the narrative. Kind of how the USSR moved on from Afghanistan.
 
A year or two of Russia earning low income from Gas / Urals oil exports will leave them no choice to surrender. It was what they were relying on to keep the economy going / lessen the impact of sanctions.


As discussed they don't have any real viable alternatives for their gas to be sold. And opening new pipelines doesn't help them NOW - by the time they are eventually built and start flowing the damage is done.

Once France / Germany wean themselves off Russian energy who exactly are Russia's major gas customers?


Oil doesn't even need to be discussed, that's already a huge strategic failure for Russia. Their oil on the world market has been replaced and Urals oil is tanking. They can't export it on ships because China / Turkey are stopping them from doing so.
Like this, we are closing in on a year now and I will (very sadly) post this same thing again in another 12 months if the war is ongoing.
We’ve had in this thread-
Putin is dying
Putin is a body double
China will take Russian land
Russia will run out of bullets
Russia will run out of bodies
Russians will revolt
Russians will assassinate Putin
Russian economy will collapse

In any case I don’t think anyone who has read this thread along the journey would disagree that there has been a lot of optimism about the degradation of Russia.
I only posted agin because you replied to me. So I won’t again. All the best.
 
In any case I don’t think anyone who has read this thread along the journey would disagree that there has been a lot of optimism about the degradation of Russia.
I think this is true. They still seem to be able to smuggle in goods and sell their oil.
 

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Dec 22, 2009
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Like this, we are closing in on a year now and I will (very sadly) post this same thing again in another 12 months if the war is ongoing.
We’ve had in this thread-
Putin is dying
Putin is a body double
China will take Russian land
Russia will run out of bullets
Russia will run out of bodies
Russians will revolt
Russians will assassinate Putin
Russian economy will collapse

In any case I don’t think anyone who has read this thread along the journey would disagree that there has been a lot of optimism about the degradation of Russia.
I only posted agin because you replied to me. So I won’t again. All the best.

Not about optimism, its about facts.

Russian economy being in tatters is a fact. Russia suffering greatly from sanctions is a fact (look at their oil and aviation industries).

There was a revolt by Wagner mercenaries. Whether they were on the way to Moscow to deputinify the Kremlin we will never know.

Russia being out of bullets - likely to never happen completely but it is a fact that they've had to resort to sourcing ammunition from North Korea.


Russia may still be going in 12 months time however Russia's position will almost certainly be worse off in that timeframe.
 
Not about optimism, its about facts.

Russian economy being in tatters is a fact. Russia suffering greatly from sanctions is a fact (look at their oil and aviation industries).

There was a revolt by Wagner mercenaries. Whether they were on the way to Moscow to deputinify the Kremlin we will never know.

Russia being out of bullets - likely to never happen completely but it is a fact that they've had to resort to sourcing ammunition from North Korea.


Russia may still be going in 12 months time however Russia's position will almost certainly be worse off in that timeframe.
You literally said they would have no choice to surrender in a year or two. This isn’t a fact it’s your opinion, and it’s overly optimistic as is stated and you disagreed with.
Anyways, I apologise I said I would stop as it’s not helpful. We both want peace in the region so let’s agree on that.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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I think this is true. They still seem to be able to smuggle in goods and sell their oil.

They're not doing a very good job of it. Urals oil is trading a full $15 / bl below world crude oil markets and $20 / bl under the Brent crude price. This is largely due to the price cap on Urals oil.

Gazprom's had to cut gas production with their income from gas nose diving. China's also refusing to fund a new pipeline from Russia to China telling Vlad you pay for it and we'll take your gas at a knock down price.
 
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Like this, we are closing in on a year now and I will (very sadly) post this same thing again in another 12 months if the war is ongoing.
We’ve had in this thread-
Putin is dying
Putin is a body double
China will take Russian land
Russia will run out of bullets
Russia will run out of bodies
Russians will revolt
Russians will assassinate Putin
Russian economy will collapse

In any case I don’t think anyone who has read this thread along the journey would disagree that there has been a lot of optimism about the degradation of Russia.
I only posted agin because you replied to me. So I won’t again. All the best.
The degradation hasn't happened as fast as we all want.

But it's happening, the world moving away from fossil fuels faster it would be a massive boon for Ukraine
 
Dec 22, 2009
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You literally said they would have no choice to surrender in a year or two. This isn’t a fact it’s your opinion, and it’s overly optimistic as is stated and you disagreed with.
Anyways, I apologise I said I would stop as it’s not helpful. We both want peace in the region so let’s agree on that.

I literally said no such thing. What I actually said was the best thing for Putin to do was to withdraw from Ukraine completely and declare "victory." Not that they "would have no choice". Unfortunately Putin's ego would rather see him destroy Russia from within than do the smart and sensible option of withdrawing under the pretense of victory.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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The degradation hasn't happened as fast as we all want.

But it's happening, the world moving away from fossil fuels faster it would be a massive boon for Ukraine

Yep. Some like to believe that the war isn't affecting Russia and that Putin can carry on as normal with Russia being an international pariah state.

Just things like being suspended from FIFA & the IOC is enough to turn a large portion of the population against Putin. Russians could probably accept being excluded from international sport on a short term basis but it now seems that those bans are going to go on indefintiely or at least until Putin decides to call it quits.
 

wannabejack

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It's not just some of those posting here who were optimistic.

It's better to be pessimistic so you are never disappointed.
 
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I literally said no such thing. What I actually said was the best thing for Putin to do was to withdraw from Ukraine completely and declare "victory." Not that they "would have no choice". Unfortunately Putin's ego would rather see him destroy Russia from within than do the smart and sensible option of withdrawing under the pretense of victory.
These are your own words

A year or two of Russia earning low income from Gas / Urals oil exports will leave them no choice to surrender.

Pretty sure it says “leave them no choice to surrender”.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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These are your own words

A year or two of Russia earning low income from Gas / Urals oil exports will leave them no choice to surrender.

Pretty sure it says “leave them no choice to surrender”.

That wasn't the post you quoted. The last thing I said was Putin should withdraw & declare victory.
 

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A year or two of Russia earning low income from Gas / Urals oil exports will leave them no choice to surrender. It was what they were relying on to keep the economy going / lessen the impact of sanctions.


As discussed they don't have any real viable alternatives for their gas to be sold. And opening new pipelines doesn't help them NOW - by the time they are eventually built and start flowing the damage is done.

Once France / Germany wean themselves off Russian energy who exactly are Russia's major gas customers?


Oil doesn't even need to be discussed, that's already a huge strategic failure for Russia. Their oil on the world market has been replaced and Urals oil is tanking. They can't export it on ships because China / Turkey are stopping them from doing so.
This is the post I quoted. Read your first sentence.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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This is the post I quoted. Read your first sentence.

I'm not sure what the point you are trying to prove is here. Russia has taken a huge hit on oil & gas. This is a fact. Russia has had to ramp up interest rates massively. This is a fact.

What exactly are you on about? You seem upset about Russia being painted as a loser in this war.
 
I'm not sure what the point you are trying to prove is here. Russia has taken a huge hit on oil & gas. This is a fact. Russia has had to ramp up interest rates massively. This is a fact.

What exactly are you on about? You seem upset about Russia being painted as a loser in this war.
I don’t read it that way more just simply stating that the collapse of Russia is still a long term issue (multiple years)
 
Vlad wants Russian mums to have big families:



I'm interested to see what ridiculous decrees he can sign to enforce this goal...

But with the men being sent off to die, who is going to help to produce these big families?
 

jatz14

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I think this is true. They still seem to be able to smuggle in goods and sell their oil.
Despite what people think, the sanctions were never intended to stop Russia selling oil. They were intended to limit how much money Russia made from it.

In that sense, it did work.

Reports India has now forced Russia to accept Ruppiah as payment for some things.

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Vlad wants Russian mums to have big families:



I'm interested to see what ridiculous decrees he can sign to enforce this goal...

There was already this recently:
RF begin to outlaw the rights of medicial facilities to perform abortions, citing random claims of criminal activities and health risks. The post replete with people calling it out for what it is : religious nutbaggery and a despotic approach to giving the population a kick-along. Can't make waves without meat!



"Russian authorities are (again) concerned about the birth rate. But instead of thinking about real family support, they press on women's reproductive rights and continue to bring incredible nonsense."

“VOLUNTARY” REFUSAL OF PRIVATE CLINICS TO DO ABORTIONS Private clinics in the Kursk region, Crimea, Mordovia, Tatarstan and Chelyabinsk region decided to refuse abortions “independently”. The State Duma is currently preparing a bill that would ban abortions in private medical institutions at the federal level. The deputies explained their intentions by saying that the clinics allegedly do not provide statistics on the number of pregnancy terminations, do not give the woman time to think about the decision, and generally perform “criminal abortions.”
 

jatz14

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This is the post I quoted. Read your first sentence.
I think you are over thinking terms like collapse and surrender.

Also posters being lose with terminology in posting (this is BigFooty, not an international think tank).

I absolutely think Ukraine can win. I also do not think Russia will surrender, or collapse, or even undergo regime change. I don't even think Ukraine will drive Russian forces back to the pre 2014 border.

I have also never thought people throwing around those terms sincerely thought Russia was likely to surrender or collapse either, not in the sense you seem to think it implies.

Historically it's rare for wars to end like WW2, with one side fighting until the last.

Normally wars end when one side realizes the cost of the war has escalated beyond what can be justified by any possible outcome of the war. In such a position, to keep fighting just makes things worse, even if on the battlefield, things seem ok.

The point at which Putin starts to think, a settlement I don't want, now, might be better than the cost of 12 months more fighting, plus the settlement I am likely to get, in 12 months time.

Then you get a collapse. A collapse in the resolve that, if we just fight a bit longer, things will go our way.

So, there is a contradiction. If the West shows any reluctance to keep supplying Ukraine, then Putin thinks, if I just keep fighting, things will start to go my way, and I can win.

If the West is seen to be pressuring Ukraine to negotiate, then Putin can refuse to negotiate, and wait for Western pressure to force Ukraine to concede more. He gets to go to the table later, under his terms.

The best outcome for the West is a negotiated deal, on Ukrainian terms, that Putin can spin as some sort of win.

The worst outcome is a negotiated deal on Putins terms, that let's Putin think he won.

If that happens, this will happen again.

The more the West holds out the carrot of the second option, by showing a lack of resolve, the less likely Putin is to negotiate sooner.

It's only if Putin thinks option 2 is off the table that he starts seriously thinking about option 1.

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Barbarian state. This is the kind of nation which should be appeased with bowing to their savage expectations.


"An act of mercy has become an act of torture." Zhenya Berkovich said that she spent 25 hours in an unheated paddy wagon while she was being taken to her grandmother’s funeral. The judge was outraged by her complaint

Filmmaker Zhenya Berkovich said she spent 25 hours in an unheated paddy wagon while she was being taken to the funeral of her grandmother Nina Katerli. Berkovich announced this on November 30 during a court hearing that was considering an appeal to extend the arrest of her and playwright Svetlana Petriychuk. An audio recording of the director’s speech was published by journalist Vasily Polonsky.

“They provided me with the opportunity to be transported to St. Petersburg in order to say goodbye to my grandmother and to attend the funeral. I am absolutely sincerely sure that for those people, whoever they were, who organized all this in some amazing way, it was an act of mercy. I am very grateful for this, but it was precisely thanks to the preventive measure that was chosen by Judge Rakhmatov that an act of mercy turned into an act of torture,” said Berkovich, who spoke via video link.

According to Berkovich, she spent 25 hours “in a cage in a paddy wagon that is not heated.” She did not have warm clothes with her, since she was not told where she was going. The director said that she spent all this time in a light jacket and autumn sneakers; she also had no food with her.

“This cage is a piece of an iron box about two meters in size, in which it is impossible to stand, impossible to sit normally. It hurts, so now, I’m sorry, I can’t get up and sit down. It is impossible to sleep there and it is very cold there because there is no heating. The guards have it somewhere. I didn't have warm clothes. The only warm clothes I had, I was not allowed to take with me into the car because they didn’t match something there. <…> In one day, in 25 hours, I was taken to the toilet twice,” Berkovich said.

After this, Moscow City Court Judge Natalya Nikishina interrupted Berkovich and asked what investigative actions were being discussed and where she was being taken. The director replied that she was being taken to St. Petersburg for her grandmother’s funeral.

“That is, your trip was not planned, but your close people or someone agreed that they would still take you to the funeral. That is, you were grateful that you were at the funeral. And now you are expressing your complaints about the way you were taken to your grandmother’s funeral. Which, by the way, is the first time I’ve heard of it. This, as I understand it, is necessary to write a letter to law enforcement agencies, how can a person in custody be present at a funeral. That is, what laws and regulations, when a person is in custody, were the investigative body guided by in order for you to be taken to your grandmother’s funeral. Do I get it right? And now you are expressing complaints to me that you were not provided with the conditions for your delivery,” the judge said.

The Moscow City Court rejected the defense's appeal and left Berkovich and Petriychuk in pre-trial detention.

Director Zhenya Berkovich and playwright Svetlana Petriychuk have been in pretrial detention since May 2023. They are accused of “justifying terrorism” because of the play “Finist the Clear Falcon.” It talks about women leaving Russia for Syria to join the participants of the Far Far Away State.

On November 25, Berkovich was brought to the funeral of her grandmother, writer and human rights activist Nina Katerli, who died on November 20 in St. Petersburg. Before this, more than 20 actors, directors, writers and public figures sent an open letter to the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, Tatyana Moskalkova, asking for help to change the preventive measure for Berkovich and Petriychuk, “at least so that she [Berkovich] could bury her grandmother.” . The director’s mother, human rights activist Elena Efros, argued that the main credit for allowing Berkovich to say goodbye to her grandmother belongs to the former editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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I guess Putin still wants a male-centric military, so what happens if more girls are born during this baby boom?

Vlad is a genius and has this figured out.


He signs a new decree mandating all males who father two boys or more before the age of 25 are exempt from conscription until 30.
 
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