Prediction What light through yonder premiership window breaks - who?

[Proper Gander]

Would it put your mind at ease if I said that I kicked 85 this year?

It would. Would you like me to set a calendar alert for October 2023 to remind you to round up a new gaggle of possums. Also, kick ringtails. They are pretty cute so it seems a shame, but the brush tailed bastards are scarey.

 

[Cannon82]

Would it put your mind at ease if I said that I kicked 85 this year?

Coleman medal form.

 

[netslave]

Time to revisit the topic. How long do you think our premiership window is open for?
We have a great list, right age bracket, quality talent, good coach and we are doing well off field.

 

[schmuttt]

We are a good chance this season but no guarantees afterwards. Too many variables that can hurt our chances.

 

[mrmonkey]

Some embarrassing comments in here, people predicting essendon being in the premiership window after they had shown didly squat and based on today's performance gone completely backwards.

 

[JP2]

History suggests that even the very best teams are able to be in premiership contention for no longer than 5 years, and the window for most teams is significantly less than that. If we put ourselves in that bracket, then the window shuts after 2025.

At the start of 2026, our key players will be this old:

• Gawn 34
• May 33
• Brown 33
• Viney 31
• Salem 30
• Brayshaw 29
• Langdon 29
• Lever 29
• Fritsch 29
• Petracca 29
• Oliver 28

Honestly, when you look at it like that, there's no reason we couldn't still be competitive in 2026 providing we're able to keep the squad together and healthy, but although many of those guys might still be very good players by 2026, it's unlikely they will all be producing the kind of output they're able to provide now, and certainly unlikely that we'll be able to get them all onto the park at the same time. Of course, we currently have a lot of young players who would be coming into their prime by then, so I think we have the foundations of a good team for a while yet, but as Geelong in the last decade have shown, there's a big difference between being a good team and a strong premiership threat.

The key is to capitalise while you're at the top and while the hunger is still there, because history tells us these chances don't come up very often. Predicting anything beyond the current season is a fool's errand in this sport (we have no idea how many other teams might rise into contention from next year onwards) so I'd hope we can pinch another flag in 2022/23 with this current bunch of players who are clearly capable of doing it, because things can turn to s**t in a hurry and I wouldn't want to use the relative youth of this team as a reason to just expect that we'll be a premiership threat for any time beyond that.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

We are a good chance this season but no guarantees afterwards. Too many variables that can hurt our chances.

I think this is not a very realistic way of looking at things to the point of being naively pessimistic. We would have to do something diabolical to not stay in contention for 3-4 years at least. There aren’t many sides - let alone premiers - that have had a run like our last 34 games and not had a decently lengthy premiership window. It’s a question now of being a well run footy club - and those variables you speak of are things that well run clubs either don’t allow or are able to readily rebound.

Now here’s my unrealistic fantasy model:

IMO we should be in contention for as long as Trac and Oliver (and Lever to an extent) are at their peak. Just a question of how long that lasts. If they’re playing career best footy into their 30s like a Travis Boak type we would be incredibly blessed, but obviously Port have topped up in the draft recently and that talent has made the most of Boak’s renaissance (along with Wines emerging as a clearance star). If we’d gotten Cerra it really could have extended our window I think, and we’ll have to either get a free agent mid or nail a draft pick so we have a star mid that emerges when ours slow down. The one concern with our list from a long term perspective is that we haven’t drafted a midfielder in the top 25 since 2015, and basically every premiership is won by a team that has at least one midfielder taken in the top 5 that is still at their peak. So the length of our contention is limited by progression of this.

That’s the incredible thing about the beautiful failure of 2019. If Jackson becomes the best player in the comp then it’s about how long we have a side to play around him. Drafted a lot of other talent since 2017, I guess it’s a question of how good they turn out to be when they don’t have two comp best midfielders getting the footy for them as consistently. Like how much will our 8 premiership players who were 22yo or under (Spargo, Petty, Sparrow, JJ, Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Bowey) improve? How many have A/B grade potential?

Geelong finished top 2 in five consecutive seasons. I believe we’re capable of something like that. Whether our window extends beyond that depends on a few things. May and Gawn are now both 30 which is still pretty young, they both feel weirdly like they’re older but I think that’s because they’re the oldest players on the team. Both playing almost career best footy so as long as that continues there’s no issue (and BBB should also produce the same standard for a while. TMac looks cooked but I don’t think we rely on him so much). Question is a) when do they decide to retire and b) when do they slow down? Ideal situation is that they both have the desire to play into their mid to late 30s like Sandilands or Burgoyne even if they start to taper off around 32 or 33. Even if not in the same roles exactly - with Max playing more minutes at either end of the ground and May playing a Burgoyne or Hodge intercepting defensive general role. But in the more likely event that they can’t be convinced to stick around, it’s a question of how we replace them. I think Jackson can be better than Gawn but I don’t think Petty can be as good as May, and defenders of that calibre are more difficult to find than competent rucks, leaving aside everything else Gawn does.

So I’ll say I’ll be disappointed if we’re up the top for less than five years. That’s the quality of this list and the best 22 we have, which strikes me as incredibly similar to that Geelong team. Whether we’re ‘in the window’ (ie making finals, competing with the best sides) for longer than that depends on how long May and Gawn play and our ability to regenerate the midfield/how long the Trac and Oliver peak lasts because sides that win finals are the best contested ball sides in the comp and we haven’t drafted a midfielder since Oliver who looks likely to reach that standard. I think Sparrow is good playing under those two and is a good replacement for Viney whose body seems unlikely to stand up to too many more years of his playing style, but I can’t see him ever being the number one man.

I think that Geelong top 2 streak could and would have continued for longer if they hadn’t lost Ablett, considering how good he was from 2012-2014 and considering how good the Cats were from 2013-2017 without him. Crazy that they won 18 games in 2013 while he was winning a Brownlow at another club at 29yo and then played even better the next year. Hopefully we’re also trying to replicate that model for sustained success WITHOUT the neglect of acquiring the talent to actually win finals and the geriatric model they’ve got going on. Trac is still only 26, as is Lever, and Oliver 24 which is remarkable. Would be a shame if we aren’t still a flag chance while they’re under 31 (and the other guys their age in Langdon, ANB etc) with the improvement of all of our post 2017 draftees to come (esp the possible A graders in Pickett and Jackson).

It’s funny the eerie similarities between GAJ and Dusty. Both seemingly immune to injury until they turned 30 and then sustained serious injuries which have been very difficult to return from. Ablett was able to come back to Geelong and play almost AA standard football as a forward which everyone said he’d do in his later years like Leigh matthews, and was able to do it bc the Cats were still good. Dusty has been playing forward for years but is now coming back to a Richmond side that looks like it’s going to fall off a cliff in the midfield. Trac and Oliver are similarly bulletproof and the fact that we have two of them is comforting but they too will probably hit 30 and become much more susceptible to injury. So it’s not really a question of if they’re playing the same standard of footy (they could even be better like Boak) but whether or not we’re still relying upon them, or if other genuine stars emerge for us in the middle so they can play less midfield intensive roles (esp Trac).

 

[schmuttt]

I think this is not a very realistic way of looking at things to the point of being naively pessimistic. We would have to do something diabolical to not stay in contention for 3-4 years at least. There aren’t many sides - let alone premiers - that have had a run like our last 34 games and not had a decently lengthy premiership window. It’s a question now of being a well run footy club - and those variables you speak of are things that well run clubs either don’t allow or are able to readily rebound.

Now here’s my unrealistic fantasy model:

IMO we should be in contention for as long as Trac and Oliver (and Lever to an extent) are at their peak. Just a question of how long that lasts. If they’re playing career best footy into their 30s like a Travis Boak type we would be incredibly blessed, but obviously Port have topped up in the draft recently and that talent has made the most of Boak’s renaissance (along with Wines emerging as a clearance star). If we’d gotten Cerra it really could have extended our window I think, and we’ll have to either get a free agent mid or nail a draft pick so we have a star mid that emerges when ours slow down. The one concern with our list from a long term perspective is that we haven’t drafted a midfielder in the top 25 since 2015, and basically every premiership is won by a team that has at least one midfielder taken in the top 5 that is still at their peak. So the length of our contention is limited by progression of this.

That’s the incredible thing about the beautiful failure of 2019. If Jackson becomes the best player in the comp then it’s about how long we have a side to play around him. Drafted a lot of other talent since 2017, I guess it’s a question of how good they turn out to be when they don’t have two comp best midfielders getting the footy for them as consistently. Like how much will our 8 premiership players who were 22yo or under (Spargo, Petty, Sparrow, JJ, Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Bowey) improve? How many have A/B grade potential?

Geelong finished top 2 in five consecutive seasons. I believe we’re capable of something like that. Whether our window extends beyond that depends on a few things. May and Gawn are now both 30 which is still pretty young, they both feel weirdly like they’re older but I think that’s because they’re the oldest players on the team. Both playing almost career best footy so as long as that continues there’s no issue (and BBB should also produce the same standard for a while. TMac looks cooked but I don’t think we rely on him so much). Question is a) when do they decide to retire and b) when do they slow down? Ideal situation is that they both have the desire to play into their mid to late 30s like Sandilands or Burgoyne even if they start to taper off around 32 or 33. Even if not in the same roles exactly - with Max playing more minutes at either end of the ground and May playing a Burgoyne or Hodge intercepting defensive general role. But in the more likely event that they can’t be convinced to stick around, it’s a question of how we replace them. I think Jackson can be better than Gawn but I don’t think Petty can be as good as May, and defenders of that calibre are more difficult to find than competent rucks, leaving aside everything else Gawn does.

So I’ll say I’ll be disappointed if we’re up the top for less than five years. That’s the quality of this list and the best 22 we have, which strikes me as incredibly similar to that Geelong team. Whether we’re ‘in the window’ (ie making finals, competing with the best sides) for longer than that depends on how long May and Gawn play and our ability to regenerate the midfield/how long the Trac and Oliver peak lasts because sides that win finals are the best contested ball sides in the comp and we haven’t drafted a midfielder since Oliver who looks likely to reach that standard. I think Sparrow is good playing under those two and is a good replacement for Viney whose body seems unlikely to stand up to too many more years of his playing style, but I can’t see him ever being the number one man.

I think that Geelong top 2 streak could and would have continued for longer if they hadn’t lost Ablett, considering how good he was from 2012-2014 and considering how good the Cats were from 2013-2017 without him. Crazy that they won 18 games in 2018 while he was winning a Brownlow at another club at 29yo and then played even better the next year. Hopefully we’re also trying to replicate that model for sustained success WITHOUT the neglect of acquiring the talent to actually win finals and the geriatric model they’ve got going on. Trac is still only 26, as is Lever, and Oliver 24 which is remarkable. Would be a shame if we aren’t still a flag chance while they’re under 31 (and the other guys their age in Langdon, ANB etc) with the improvement of all of our post 2017 draftees to come (esp the possible A graders in Pickett and Jackson).

It’s funny the eerie similarities between GAJ and Dusty. Both seemingly immune to injury until they turned 30 and then sustained serious injuries which have been very difficult to return from. Ablett was able to come back to Geelong and play almost AA standard football as a forward which everyone said he’d do in his later years like Leigh matthews, and was able to do it bc the Cats were still good. Dusty has been playing forward for years but is now coming back to a Richmond side that looks like it’s going to fall off a cliff in the midfield. Trac and Oliver are similarly bulletproof and the fact that we have two of them is comforting but they too will probably hit 30 and become much more susceptible to injury. So it’s not really a question of if they’re playing the same standard of footy (they could even be better like Boak) but whether or not we’re still relying upon them, or if other genuine stars emerge for us in the middle so they can play less midfield intensive roles (esp Trac).

No offence but when I saw you quoted me with a wall of text I knew it'd be some ultra-homer take.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Long post. In summary, I think at least five years. If we want to become a powerhouse club we need to find a way to stay competitive (ie continue finishing top 6) beyond that. If we’re lucky everyone currently in the best 22 will still be playing footy in 2026 (for us or at another club - the point is the they won’t have retired). The 2014 draft crop will be 30, and Oliver will be 29, which is still an age you can produce A grade footy these days. It’s the difference between continuing to be a contender and being a Geelong. We need younger stars coming through in the midfield in particular for when our five AAs from last year slow down (even if they’re still in the team in different roles at a lower standard). Geelong lost an elimination final in 2012 and then remarkably lost a prelim to hawthorn by just five points in 2013 after an 18 win season in which they beat Hawthorn twice, lost four games by under ten points. Post 2014 they’ve been smashed in at least one finals loss each year and not really looked like making a GF until 2020 but could v easily have done it in 2013 which would have been a seven year ‘window’.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

No offence but when I saw you quoted me with a wall of text I knew it'd be some ultra-homer take.

No offence but I knew you’d reply with something like that.

 

[schmuttt]

No offence but I knew you’d reply with something like that.

I can’t make fun of TK waffling on about if we didn’t win the flag then in the next breath talking about what if we are a dynasty. Collingwood 2010 were a super young dominant premiership side and completely fell apart after the 2011 GF. I’m happy to talk this year but just feel beyond that who knows?

 

[pjfairbairn]

I think this is not a very realistic way of looking at things to the point of being naively pessimistic. We would have to do something diabolical to not stay in contention for 3-4 years at least. There aren’t many sides - let alone premiers - that have had a run like our last 34 games and not had a decently lengthy premiership window. It’s a question now of being a well run footy club - and those variables you speak of are things that well run clubs either don’t allow or are able to readily rebound.

Now here’s my unrealistic fantasy model:

IMO we should be in contention for as long as Trac and Oliver (and Lever to an extent) are at their peak. Just a question of how long that lasts. If they’re playing career best footy into their 30s like a Travis Boak type we would be incredibly blessed, but obviously Port have topped up in the draft recently and that talent has made the most of Boak’s renaissance (along with Wines emerging as a clearance star). If we’d gotten Cerra it really could have extended our window I think, and we’ll have to either get a free agent mid or nail a draft pick so we have a star mid that emerges when ours slow down. The one concern with our list from a long term perspective is that we haven’t drafted a midfielder in the top 25 since 2015, and basically every premiership is won by a team that has at least one midfielder taken in the top 5 that is still at their peak. So the length of our contention is limited by progression of this.

That’s the incredible thing about the beautiful failure of 2019. If Jackson becomes the best player in the comp then it’s about how long we have a side to play around him. Drafted a lot of other talent since 2017, I guess it’s a question of how good they turn out to be when they don’t have two comp best midfielders getting the footy for them as consistently. Like how much will our 8 premiership players who were 22yo or under (Spargo, Petty, Sparrow, JJ, Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Bowey) improve? How many have A/B grade potential?

Geelong finished top 2 in five consecutive seasons. I believe we’re capable of something like that. Whether our window extends beyond that depends on a few things. May and Gawn are now both 30 which is still pretty young, they both feel weirdly like they’re older but I think that’s because they’re the oldest players on the team. Both playing almost career best footy so as long as that continues there’s no issue (and BBB should also produce the same standard for a while. TMac looks cooked but I don’t think we rely on him so much). Question is a) when do they decide to retire and b) when do they slow down? Ideal situation is that they both have the desire to play into their mid to late 30s like Sandilands or Burgoyne even if they start to taper off around 32 or 33. Even if not in the same roles exactly - with Max playing more minutes at either end of the ground and May playing a Burgoyne or Hodge intercepting defensive general role. But in the more likely event that they can’t be convinced to stick around, it’s a question of how we replace them. I think Jackson can be better than Gawn but I don’t think Petty can be as good as May, and defenders of that calibre are more difficult to find than competent rucks, leaving aside everything else Gawn does.

So I’ll say I’ll be disappointed if we’re up the top for less than five years. That’s the quality of this list and the best 22 we have, which strikes me as incredibly similar to that Geelong team. Whether we’re ‘in the window’ (ie making finals, competing with the best sides) for longer than that depends on how long May and Gawn play and our ability to regenerate the midfield/how long the Trac and Oliver peak lasts because sides that win finals are the best contested ball sides in the comp and we haven’t drafted a midfielder since Oliver who looks likely to reach that standard. I think Sparrow is good playing under those two and is a good replacement for Viney whose body seems unlikely to stand up to too many more years of his playing style, but I can’t see him ever being the number one man.

I think that Geelong top 2 streak could and would have continued for longer if they hadn’t lost Ablett, considering how good he was from 2012-2014 and considering how good the Cats were from 2013-2017 without him. Crazy that they won 18 games in 2018 while he was winning a Brownlow at another club at 29yo and then played even better the next year. Hopefully we’re also trying to replicate that model for sustained success WITHOUT the neglect of acquiring the talent to actually win finals and the geriatric model they’ve got going on. Trac is still only 26, as is Lever, and Oliver 24 which is remarkable. Would be a shame if we aren’t still a flag chance while they’re under 31 (and the other guys their age in Langdon, ANB etc) with the improvement of all of our post 2017 draftees to come (esp the possible A graders in Pickett and Jackson).

It’s funny the eerie similarities between GAJ and Dusty. Both seemingly immune to injury until they turned 30 and then sustained serious injuries which have been very difficult to return from. Ablett was able to come back to Geelong and play almost AA standard football as a forward which everyone said he’d do in his later years like Leigh matthews, and was able to do it bc the Cats were still good. Dusty has been playing forward for years but is now coming back to a Richmond side that looks like it’s going to fall off a cliff in the midfield. Trac and Oliver are similarly bulletproof and the fact that we have two of them is comforting but they too will probably hit 30 and become much more susceptible to injury. So it’s not really a question of if they’re playing the same standard of footy (they could even be better like Boak) but whether or not we’re still relying upon them, or if other genuine stars emerge for us in the middle so they can play less midfield intensive roles (esp Trac).

Clarry being 24 blows my mind. And truly makes me think the sky is the limit.

Trac as a stay at home 30 year old forward is a genuinely exciting option.

You make some good points around FB - I think that May's heir apparent isn't currently on the list. But outside of that? JVR, Howes, Laurie are all potentially elite prospects. Jackson could be anything. Kozzie's got no ceiling, nor Bowey in his own way. Ben Brown could do his current rol for another 2-3 years. We could have a dynasty on our hands.

The only list that truly intimidates me is Sydney. 25 or under, they have Heeney, Papley, Melican, Mills, Ronke, Ladhams, Florent, Hayward, McLean, Amartey, Wicks, T.McCartin, Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom, Stephens, Warner, Campbell, McDonald, Gulden. Could be anything.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I can’t make fun of TK waffling on about if we didn’t win the flag then in the next breath talking about what if we are a dynasty. Collingwood 2010 were a super young dominant premiership side and completely fell apart after the 2011 GF. I’m happy to talk this year but just feel beyond that who knows?

That’s the thing though, Collingwood finished fourth in 2012 and 6th in 2013. They were fourth in 2009 too, after doing what we did in 2018 and making a prelim from outside the top 4 (which they lost by five points to Geelong) in 2007. I’m not saying we’re going to become a dynasty or even win more flags at all. But it would take a near disaster to not at least be a contender for one to two more years beyond that. Collingwood had four consecutive top four years from 2009 to 2012 even if it was only two years of dominance.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

This subject is very definitional. Like what is a window, what is a contender, what is a success. Bias and overrating or underrating aside, I think any club would be disappointed if they had guys like Trac, Oliver, Lever, Fritsch, Langdon, Kossie and Pickett (who could all have AA jumpers in the next couple of years) 30 or under and they weren’t in contention bc 30 is just not that old anymore. And that’s the scenario we’ll be in in 2026 if we keep our s**t together.

Obviously they could all get injured or leave the club and various disasters could strike. We could also implode this week and go to s**t, and we could debate how that could happen theoretically. But purely on the theory of how long our window could stay open (taking out how much I’d like it to be for a long time) it comes down to the factor of ‘can we make the most of those guys in their 30s’ which is all about finding Oliver and Trac a wingman and finding a replacement key back. You can win a flag with gaps in your team (ie without other pieces like tall forward or small defenders etc) as long as you have an elite midfield and a solid backline which starts from FB.

The ironic thing is that in a way I’ve never been less interested in football. I don’t want any other games, I barely pay attention to my SuperCoach draft league which I win every year, and im more interested in the social aspect of the pub before and after our games than the matches which I just expect to win. Don’t read or watch any footy media at all. Without the typical anxiet driven experience of being a Dees fan it’s hard to stay engaged. Even if our window stays open for a decade I will probably fade out to being a fairly casual fan (by my standard) before I hit 30.

 

[Crimson Azure]

Why even bother predicting after the last few premiers. What gets a team to the top is something intangible. Port have enough talent to win a premiership.
None of the Dogs Tigers or Pies were in their window when they made their runs.

I reckon GWS with a streamlined squad will be a threat.

TK: angry and without punctuation since at least 2018.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Clarry being 24 blows my mind. And truly makes me think the sky is the limit.

Trac as a stay at home 30 year old forward is a genuinely exciting option.

You make some good points around FB - I think that May's heir apparent isn't currently on the list. But outside of that? JVR, Howes, Laurie are all potentially elite prospects. Jackson could be anything. Kozzie's got no ceiling, nor Bowey in his own way. Ben Brown could do his current rol for another 2-3 years. We could have a dynasty on our hands.

The only list that truly intimidates me is Sydney. 25 or under, they have Heeney, Papley, Melican, Mills, Ronke, Ladhams, Florent, Hayward, McLean, Amartey, Wicks, T.McCartin, Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom, Stephens, Warner, Campbell, McDonald, Gulden. Could be anything.

Elite in the midfield is a different thing to elite in other positions. We have no one else who could be a Trac/Oliver and you need that to keep winning flags. I haven’t seen enough of Laurie or Howes or JVR but obviously none of them will ever be an elite clearance mid and that’s what the very first piece of the puzzle. Nothing else matters until you have it. So unless Jackson becomes even better than we could hope as that roving ruckman we need to find something. Either we get incredibly lucky in the draft bc those 95% of those flag winning elite mids are drafted in the top 5 or we miraculously get someone like Andrew Brayshaw or Tom Green or Noah Anderson as a free agent. Or Jackson or Kossie leave and we get a top 5 pick, i guess.

 

[Topkent]

Trac as a stay at home 30 year old forward is a genuinely exciting option.

Does it? Bloke can't kick set shots and has never dominated a game forward and he's 26. He'll never be a dominant forward the way he's tracking pardon the pun.

 

[pjfairbairn]

Does it? Bloke can't kick set shots and has never dominated a game forward and he's 26. He'll never be a dominant forward the way he's tracking pardon the pun.

I liked his snap last night. Stay at home forward doesn't need to mean on the lead to kick 5 - can just mean his smarts, physicality, and decision making are all restricted to the Fwd 50.

Fyfe this year will be interesting to watch when he comes back, if he plays forward. Maybe I'm wrong, but if he lost the tank to play through the middle in a few years time, I reckon he would still be a weapon up there.

 

[Bluelegs]

View attachment 1389132

Time to revisit the topic. How long do you think our premiership window is open for?
We have a great list, right age bracket, quality talent, good coach and we are doing well off field.

I'm just amazed no one gave this a snarky bump in 2019.

 

[Bluelegs]

Some embarrassing comments in here, people predicting essendon being in the premiership window after they had shown didly squat and based on today's performance gone completely backwards.

Alright, danster

 

[mrmonkey]

Alright, danster

Fair call but at least I didn't quote myself and say how right I was.

 

[Bluelegs]

Fair call but at least I didn't quote myself and say how right I was.

When done in the right spirit, I actually rate this as one of the finest pleasures BigFooty has to offer. It's the pairing of rubbing it in peoples faces with absolutely zero self-awareness I can't abide.

 

[Topkent]

When done in the right spirit, I actually rate this as one of the finest pleasures BigFooty has to offer. It's the pairing of rubbing it in peoples faces with absolutely zero self-awareness I can't abide.

Dunno I love telling people Steven May was a ripper trade.