When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

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So with the Trades done I am wondering what Carlton fans believe is a realistic expectation for 2022?

Getting Cerra and Hewett is a real gain. Both are honest skilled mids who fill holes.

The process of fixing up some drafting errors has commenced with conning the Weagles to take SPS and moving LOB to the Rookie List. Players Dow will be on their last chance.

I think the signals are already clear. Irrespective of reputation, Voss will not tolerate big heads who do not do the team things.

I reckon whenever this sort of thing is asked the safe and standard answer is 'current ladder position + 2 wins/spots). Ie: I think Carlton supporters are supposed to say "probably 6th-10th and hopefully we can sneak into the 8".

I'm going to go a different route and offer two scenarios:

1. Disaster Scenario
With Docherty, Marchbank, Cuningham already nursing injuries and likely to miss most/all of the year, things take a bad turn in preseason. Jones goes down, exposing a big hole in defence, while perennial injury candidates McGovern, Charlie Curnow, De Koning and Martin simply aren't ready to go for the start of the year. The team begins the season with 10 on the injury list, loses round 1 to Richmond before a surprisingly tough run of games (away at Fremantle, games at the MCG against a frisky Collingwood and a confident Essendon, and a trip to Tassie to play Hawthorn) see Carlton at 2-3 - and then we run into Geelong, Bulldogs and Melbourne to be 2-6, despite showing some signs of improvement.

Player wise, Cripps continues his slide, while Walsh, Weitering and McKay all regress slightly from 2021 form. In the midfield, there's still lack of clarity around roles - despite the hype, Hewitt really isn't a difference maker and Cerra is solid but unspectacular. With Dow, Kennedy and Setterfield all expecting midfield time too and Ed Curnow wanting a run, players are getting shunted around positions and there's a general sense things aren't quite working right. A midseason resurgence (3 wins in 5 games, and oh so close vs Port in Adelaide...) gives some room for optimism, but a shock loss to North right before the bye (and a weird knee injury to Harry McKay in that much) means that the season is pretty much done. As we head into the end of the year, Walsh still hasn't re-signed, there's whispers that 3-4 others preferred Teague and want out, and we slide again over the last month to finish 13 th and miserable.

Note: this is basically 2021 over again, and yes, I think 2021 was as close to the disaster scenario as you'll see a team have. We were still in touching distance of the 8 with a month to play (when the wheels totally fell off) and that's a mark of progress imo

2. Dream scenario.
After a strong pre-season, whispers start emerging from training camp... Charlie is moving well again... other guys are fit, the new players are settling in well, and most importantly, everyone loves Voss and the way he simplifies things but challenges them to be their best. Round 1, things just 'click' and we pants an underdone Richmond by 24 points (it really should have been more - we wasted some chances) before rolling into a nice easy start to the year: Freo are still re-tuning after some player changes, Collingwood are clearly going to be rebuilding this year, and Essendon have shown their true colours once again. After belting likely wooden spooners Hawthorn in Tassie, we're 5-0 and flying, and even manage to win one of our next 3 agianst top 4 teams Geelong, Melbourne and the Bulldogs.

Player wise, Cripps looks back to his best, Cerra and Hewitt complement the young players in the midfield and Dow/Setterfield suddenly look like different players who can play a complementary role. The back 7 (Jones/Weitering/Williams/Saad/Plowman/Newman/Stocker) look confident and stable. With a fit Curnow, McGovern, Martin and Fisher (all who missed 11+ matches in 2021), the forward line is dangerous and firing and we look to have depth at every spot on the park, while even our ruck combo of De Koning/Pittonet is suprirsingly competent.

After a run of easier games (including 'arriving' with a tough win vs Port in Adelaide) we trounce North by 80+ and head into the bye full of confidence at 11-3. As we head into the second half of the year things tail off a bit - McGovern and Jack Martin go down with injury, we drop 1-2 close ones but its still enough to sneak into a top 4 spot. And, playing Geelong at the MCG in week 1 of the finals with a prelim spot on the line, well you know the Navy Blue army will be loud and proud and miracles can happen... two weeks later we waltz into a home preliminary final, and the club invites 22 former premiership players to deliver the pre-game address and talk about how much it means to them... and suddenly the sky looks to be the limit... from there, it's all about what happens on the park.

The reality is probably somewhere in between the two. But what I will say is that 2022 is (at least at this stage) the first year since 2012 where there is a genuine 'dream' path to the top 4 available for Carlton. Now... I think we're a key injury or two from that flipping very fast, and I've been critical of our list management for this reason (sad as it is, you simply can't carry a reduced size list with Docherty/Marchbank and two other players rehabbing knee inuries and not expect the worst). But there's a path, even if I'd lean towards the likely outcome being close to the 'disaster' scenario than the 'dream'.
 
Increasing the W/L would be ideal, but also want to see us start to take it to some good quality teams.

Every one of our wins was against a mid-table or lower ranked team, while even bottom teams were picking up the odd win against Top 8 sides. Our only win against a finalist was our win over Essendon, who aren't much chop.

Feels like a long time since we've beaten any team of quality. The Bulldogs and Geelong in 2020 are our only really strong wins against high quality opposition the past couple of years.
 

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seriously asking, why didn't Carlton sound out Ross Lyon as a Director of Coaching or Senior Assistant after Voss was appointed?
Surely he would add tremendous insight, experience and help to a still relatively inexperienced coach (at senior level)?
Why does Carlton always let these people go to other clubs?
Why's he looking likely to go to Geelong and not the navy blues?!?!?!?
 
seriously asking, why didn't Carlton sound out Ross Lyon as a Director of Coaching or Senior Assistant after Voss was appointed?
Surely he would add tremendous insight, experience and help to a still relatively inexperienced coach (at senior level)?
Why does Carlton always let these people go to other clubs?
Why's he looking likely to go to Geelong and not the navy blues?!?!?!?

I dare say after he sooked it when we asked him to go through a process it all got a bit awkward for him to work with us.
 
seriously asking, why didn't Carlton sound out Ross Lyon as a Director of Coaching or Senior Assistant after Voss was appointed?
Surely he would add tremendous insight, experience and help to a still relatively inexperienced coach (at senior level)?
Why does Carlton always let these people go to other clubs?
Why's he looking likely to go to Geelong and not the navy blues?!?!?!?

I dare say it goes directly against the Carlton Respects program for what happened at Freo.
 
seriously asking, why didn't Carlton sound out Ross Lyon as a Director of Coaching or Senior Assistant after Voss was appointed?
Surely he would add tremendous insight, experience and help to a still relatively inexperienced coach (at senior level)?
Why does Carlton always let these people go to other clubs?
Why's he looking likely to go to Geelong and not the navy blues?!?!?!?
In Paulo Coelho’s best selling novel about wisdom, i.e. “The Alchemist”, a shopkeeper sends his son to learn about the secret of happiness from the wisest man in the world. The lesson he learned seems applicable to your question.

The boy wanders through the desert, finally coming upon a beautiful castle, high atop a mountain. It’s there that the wise man lives. The boy asks the wise main to explain the meaning of happiness. Rather than give a verbal explanation, the wise man invites him o look around his marvellous castle. At the same time he hands the boy a teaspoon which holds two drops of oil, and says to him; “as you wander around, carry this spoon with you without allowing the oil to spill.

After 120 minutes, the boy returns: “well,’”asks the wise man, ‘did you see the Persian tapestries hanging in my dining hall? did you see the garden that took the master gardener ten years to create? did you notice the beautiful parchments in my library?” The boy is embarrassed, and confesses that he failed to properly observe anything. His only concern had been not to spill the oil . Happiness, explained the wise man, is about balance; being brave and daring enough to experience those things around you while doing what needs to be done.

In answer to your question, there may be a parallel between that boys journey and that of CFC following its penalties for breaching the cap in early 2000’s. Since that time, CFC has been primarily concerned with being the bestest citizen in the AFL; never again daring to spill a thing. Avoiding the mere whiff of off-field controversy may have gradually taken precedence over pursuit of on-field success.
 
In Paulo Coelho’s best selling novel about wisdom, i.e. “The Alchemist”, a shopkeeper sends his son to learn about the secret of happiness from the wisest man in the world. The lesson he learned seems applicable to your question.

The boy wanders through the desert, finally coming upon a beautiful castle, high atop a mountain. It’s there that the wise man lives. The boy asks the wise main to explain the meaning of happiness. Rather than give a verbal explanation, the wise man invites him o look around his marvellous castle. At the same time he hands the boy a teaspoon which holds two drops of oil, and says to him; “as you wander around, carry this spoon with you without allowing the oil to spill.

After 120 minutes, the boy returns: “well,’”asks the wise man, ‘did you see the Persian tapestries hanging in my dining hall? did you see the garden that took the master gardener ten years to create? did you notice the beautiful parchments in my library?” The boy is embarrassed, and confesses that he failed to properly observe anything. His only concern had been not to spill the oil . Happiness, explained the wise man, is about balance; being brave and daring enough to experience those things around you while doing what needs to be done.

In answer to your question, there may be a parallel between that boys journey and that of CFC following its penalties for breaching the cap in early 2000’s. Since that time, CFC has been primarily concerned with being the bestest citizen in the AFL; never again daring to spill a thing. Avoiding the mere whiff of off-field controversy may have gradually taken precedence over pursuit of on-field success.
rubbish. sorry but just is what uve said.
and how far has it got them. not too far
 

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Shucks, but they managed to get Betts also!!!
do they have a better anti racism program?

How do you know these two things are linked at all?

Carlton (at least some of their directors) appeared to have gone cold on Lyon because the Carlton Respects program stands for things that wouldn't exactly mesh well with Lyon's past accusations at Fremantle.

Geelong doesn't run a similar program, and can make their own call regarding Lyon's appropriateness to be associated with their club.

I'm more than happy to pot Carlton, but deciding not to hire Ross Lyon because the accusations relating to his time at Fremantle wouldn't have 'fit' what a club running a program like Carlton Respects stands for, isn't one of them.
 

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