Who do you think will or want to win the 2017 flag?

Who will win the flag?

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Janus said:
Adelaide used to be, but they've fallen away quite a bit. In terms of contested ball differential, it's:

Contested Possession Differential (top eight teams in bold):

1. Port Adelaide (+9.6)
2. Geelong (+9.0)
3. Adelaide (+6.2)
4. GWS (+5.0)
5. Sydney (+4.6)
6. Collingwood (+4.2)
7. Melbourne (+2.4)
8. Western Bulldogs (+1.4)

9. Carlton (+1.2)
10. St Kilda (+0.8)
11. Gold Coast (-1.1)
12. Essendon (-1.3)
13. Richmond (-2.7)
14. West Coast (-6.1)
15. North Melbourne (-6.3)
16. Fremantle (-7.9)
17. Hawthorn (-10.2)
18. Brisbane (-10.6)
Click to expand...

?? What you on about?

IMG_1808.jpg
 
drazah said:
I've watched every Crows game so far.
So let's go back and examine these post round 6 games and see how many times you beat a top 8 side while Sloane was tagged.

You beat Melbourne who were without 80% of their midfield quality (no Viney, Tyson, or Jones), so you were fine without needing Sloane because there wasn't an opposition midfield to compete against.

The Bulldogs (not a top 8 team mind you) didn't tag Sloane and he absolutely dominated them. A lot was made of this, as you may remember.
Sloane hardly dominated that game, not in top 5 in my mine (24 touches at 54%DE). Bulldogs also had alot of heat on them going into the game, but failed to perform.

You barely limped over the line against Carlton, who are 16th, not top 8.
Carlton was in good form for a team most tiped to be bottom of the ladder this year. Remember two games before they had beaten GWS

You lost against Hawthorn, who are 13th, not top 8, and Sloane did SFA.
Really? Ask GWS and Geelong

Sloane did nothing against St Kilda and you won, but oh dear St Kilda are 9th, and not a Top 8 side.
Correction, St. Kilda was 11th at the time (What really matters), after that game, St. Kilda went on a 4 game winning streak... Beating Geelong and Richmond...

Oh Geelong! Geelong are a top 8 team. Oh never mind they smashed you. Consensus amongst even your own supporters was that 4 goals was not a reflection of the match, that was like a 10 goal smashing. And Rory was well down, did SFA again, tagged by Scott Selwood.
We are Geelongs bunnies atm, no two ways about it!

Smashed Freo, but they're 12th, and Rory was BOG. Hmm.
Correction, Fremantle wear 5th at the time (Again, it what matters at the time) and won 4 out of thier last 5 games.

Smashed Brisbane. Are they Top 8?
As every top 8 team should really.

Played Melbourne, a top 8 team played after round 6, Sloane was tagged... and they smashed you.
Oh did they ever! and showed a weakness we needed to over come EG: Crouch Bros & Co needed to do more in the Midfield!

And finally, round 7, you played North Melbourne who are in 17th place... And they smashed you.
Same point as the Melbourne game...

So when you say "we have been beating top 8 teams" despite Sloane being tagged, you mean just once, and it was this weekend against a Melbourne outfit without any of their good midfielders. And you've struggled against bottom of the table teams.
Click to expand...
I'm so a very late reply, but just to fix a few minor points to your post... (I edited your quoted post, just open it to read)



Since round 6, the teams we have beaten and if Sloane was tagged...
Round 9 - Bris - 18th - Tagged
Round 10 - Fre - 5th - Not Tagged
Round 12 - STK - 11th - Tagged
Round 15 - Carl - 15th - Tagged
Round 16 - WB - 10th - Not Tagged
Round 17 - Mel - 5th - Tagged* (didn't finshed the whole game)

So at the time, we played and beat two top 8 teams after round 6.
As I am bored, tired while looking after a sick child, I thought I'll look up this so call haven't beaten a Top 8 team Port Adealaide....
The Teams Port Adelaide have beaten this year and where they were on the ladder at the time of the game.

Sydney* - Hard to count. They did suck in their first 6 games before getting their players back from injury and some form....
Carlton - 16th (NOTE: At the time is what really matter, not where they are now.)
Carlton - 14th What a weird draw the AFL has...
Brisbane - 14th
Gold Coast - 11th
Hawthorn - 14th
Brisbane - 18th
Collingwood - 13th
West Coast* - 7th Note: As it was the last game of the round, West Coast in fact was 9th when the game started...
North Melborne - 17th

Honestly, it's not a great record in such a close season. While all teams in the top 8 have had bad loses to bottom 10 sides this year and shown large weaknesses, at least they have also shown they can beat other top 8 sides when in form. Port Adelaide have not, you can show all the stats you like, but in the end, the Final Score is all that matters.

As who I think will win? No bloody idea! There is no "Top" Team or Teams this year that stand out in the clear. But you can cross out a few teams that you think have more weaknesses than the rest.
Sydney - Are in great form, but can they keep it going.
Geelong - Should beat Adelaide and be then aiming to try and make a GF. Danger is a worry though, as with the Hawks game, when he got hurt, Hawks got on top, then he almost single handedly won Geelong the game.
GWS - Injuries, Form, all skill and little grunt. Can they get it together before the Finals.
Port - Need Gray and Dixon to fire in the F50 to win in Finals. Got the Midfield stock. Not sure they can hand the pressure Final footy can bring, we will see as they still an unknown as they haven't done well against top 8 sides so far this year.
Richmond - (Sadly, have not seem many of your games to make a good comment).
Adelaide - A team that can play beautiful football and can beat any team, and then lose to the worse... The best Forward line, good young back line, young but questionable midfield, Elite Mid that can but tagged out the game by a blind 81 year old grandmother with a cane... They can other go all the way this year or go out in straight sets! and no Crows fans fan would be surprised if one or the other happens :huh:
 

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drazah said:
So I decided to graph this, and you're right, Sydney aren't dependent on 1 or 2 players.

However, Geelong and Adelaide most decidedly are.

View attachment 393953

As you can see, Geelong and Adelaide are both strong in their #1-3 players, but below standard especially in the #5-10 range. Port and Sydney are comparatively strong in the #5-10 range, and GWS are strongest between their #4-12 players. Will make a better post in the main board in a minute.
Click to expand...
Man you must have a lot of spare time!? But it's pretty cool nonetheless!
 
Janus said:
Yeah, we'll see.

View attachment 393943
Click to expand...
I'd love to see those numbers against top 8 teams. I would expect that your wins against bottom 10 teams have skewed the overall numbers significantly.

In any case, it's all well and good to have great statistics, but can still mask a lot. Port won't be rated a chance until they consistently beat top 8 teams.
 
Go the Guts said:
?? What you on about?

View attachment 394513
Click to expand...

Contested possession differential = the contested ball a team wins minus the contested ball the opposition wins.

Adelaide has an average of 156 CP per game...but gives up 150 CP per game. You're talking about the football equivalent of revenue, I'm talking about profit.

If your game style creates more contests, there are more to win. In the first six rounds, you were up around +17.
 
AusTerran said:
I'm so a very late reply, but just to fix a few minor points to your post... (I edited your quoted post, just open it to read)



Since round 6, the teams we have beaten and if Sloane was tagged...
Round 9 - Bris - 18th - Tagged
Round 10 - Fre - 5th - Not Tagged
Round 12 - STK - 11th - Tagged
Round 15 - Carl - 15th - Tagged
Round 16 - WB - 10th - Not Tagged
Round 17 - Mel - 5th - Tagged* (didn't finshed the whole game)

So at the time, we played and beat two top 8 teams after round 6.
As I am bored, tired while looking after a sick child, I thought I'll look up this so call haven't beaten a Top 8 team Port Adealaide....
The Teams Port Adelaide have beaten this year and where they were on the ladder at the time of the game.

Sydney* - Hard to count. They did suck in their first 6 games before getting their players back from injury and some form....
Carlton - 16th (NOTE: At the time is what really matter, not where they are now.)
Carlton - 14th What a weird draw the AFL has...
Brisbane - 14th
Gold Coast - 11th
Hawthorn - 14th
Brisbane - 18th
Collingwood - 13th
West Coast* - 7th Note: As it was the last game of the round, West Coast in fact was 9th when the game started...
North Melborne - 17th

Honestly, it's not a great record in such a close season. While all teams in the top 8 have had bad loses to bottom 10 sides this year and shown large weaknesses, at least they have also shown they can beat other top 8 sides when in form. Port Adelaide have not, you can show all the stats you like, but in the end, the Final Score is all that matters.

As who I think will win? No bloody idea! There is no "Top" Team or Teams this year that stand out in the clear. But you can cross out a few teams that you think have more weaknesses than the rest.
Sydney - Are in great form, but can they keep it going.
Geelong - Should beat Adelaide and be then aiming to try and make a GF. Danger is a worry though, as with the Hawks game, when he got hurt, Hawks got on top, then he almost single handedly won Geelong the game.
GWS - Injuries, Form, all skill and little grunt. Can they get it together before the Finals.
Port - Need Gray and Dixon to fire in the F50 to win in Finals. Got the Midfield stock. Not sure they can hand the pressure Final footy can bring, we will see as they still an unknown as they haven't done well against top 8 sides so far this year.
Richmond - (Sadly, have not seem many of your games to make a good comment).
Adelaide - A team that can play beautiful football and can beat any team, and then lose to the worse... The best Forward line, good young back line, young but questionable midfield, Elite Mid that can but tagged out the game by a blind 81 year old grandmother with a cane... They can other go all the way this year or go out in straight sets! and no Crows fans fan would be surprised if one or the other happens :huh:
Click to expand...
Bizarre mental gymnastics to exclude both Sydney and West Coast but somehow St Kilda counts for you...
 
Moonwatcher said:
Ironically the Crows dropped out of the race for the premiership last night. There is just no way that they can win 3 finals when they can expect that umpiring in all 3 matches.

Geelong's premiership to lose now.
Click to expand...
What game were you watching?! The umpiring was putrid both ways but there were numerous Dangerfield throws/drops not paid in the second half when the game coud have been put out of reach. Not too mention the appalling frees paid to both him and Selwood for dropping like flys.

Edit: I may have misinterpreted your post haha, if you are making a point about the Crows being stitched up then I concur.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Moonwatcher said:
Ironically the Crows dropped out of the race for the premiership last night. There is just no way that they can win 3 finals when they can expect that umpiring in all 3 matches.

Geelong's premiership to lose now.
Click to expand...

I agree. Twice this season Geelong has held the Adelaide forwards. Only difference was the Adelaide mids got off the chain last night kicking goals, how often has that happened?
 

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Janus said:
It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

.
Click to expand...
This is the problem I have with selective quoting of stats. You , rightly , praise Port for being top 3 in Clearances and seem to equate this with a good midfield. Yet Adelaide are ranked 3rd in Clearances (footywire) and our midfield is exposed. ??

You cant then come back and say ' but finals pressure'' as that argument fits any side including Port. As an FYI , last nights game had plenty of pressure

I have said all along I like what I see and I hope we have banked enough points to play finals. Tick. Now I hope we get enough to finish top 2. Closer and closer to a tick.

I do think you are right its a race between 5
 
GreyCrow said:
This is the problem I have with selective quoting of stats. You , rightly , praise Port for being top 3 in Clearances and seem to equate this with a good midfield. Yet Adelaide are ranked 3rd in Clearances (footywire) and our midfield is exposed. ??

You cant then come back and say ' but finals pressure'' as that argument fits any side including Port. As an FYI , last nights game had plenty of pressure

I have said all along I like what I see and I hope we have banked enough points to play finals. Tick. Now I hope we get enough to finish top 2. Closer and closer to a tick.

I do think you are right its a race between 5
Click to expand...

Clearance Differential

1. GWS (+8.6)
2. Port Adelaide (+3.6)
3. Gold Coast (+3.3)
4. Collingwood (+2.7)
5. Melbourne (+1.0)
6. Adelaide (+0.9)

The reason why you are a top clearance and contested side is because you create an awful lot of stoppages so that your midfield isn't exposed in one on one battles through the middle of the ground. But just because you generate more opportunities for clearances and contested possession, doesn't necessarily mean you're good at winning them - it's about 55%.

I said on the Port board that Adelaide would be happy with the increase in output from Brad and Matt Crouch because it has helped Sloane by making coaches acutely aware that there is more to your midfield than just him.

The only teams you'd want to avoid at Adelaide Oval are Sydney (for obvious reasons) and Port Adelaide (just for the fact that the crowd would be 50/50 in a final). And that's not saying you couldn't or wouldn't win, it's just saying that those teams would give you the most trouble. But you should be playing off in the GF this year - I've rated you as either the best or second best side all year.
 
Herne Hill Hammer said:
I agree. Twice this season Geelong has held the Adelaide forwards. Only difference was the Adelaide mids got off the chain last night kicking goals, how often has that happened?
Click to expand...
I really hope your team shares your views and is writing us off . Your right it's just an aberration!
 
Janus said:
It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

GWS has a problem with relying too much on skill and not on system. They are extremely poor defensively and most of their players don't work hard to get back into defence. The fact that they are still top four speaks more of the natural talent in the side than anything else. Unfortunately, you can't switch defensive action on and off, so they are going to have to rely on their immense talent to win the flag. Possible? You better ******* believe it is. Which is why only the teams with a good system have a chance against them.

Geelong has a bit of an issue with their perceived reliance on Selwood and Dangerfield. If Dangerfield's foot turns into a navicular injury (touch would it doesn't), then it's over. It's not so much that the rest of the team relies on them to generate score, but rather, the attention that they are paid by opposition players/coaches allows their other players a bit more space and time. But the rest of their side is well balanced. Tuohy was a great bit of recruiting, as was getting Scott Selwood.

Sydney really doesn't have a weakness...their only issue is maybe on the outside against pace, which is why a team like the Bulldogs could expose them last year. It's why they want to play GWS at the SCG rather than Spotless - the SCG is around 15m shorter than Spotless, so they don't have to run as hard to defend. But their rise is also due to the fact that every other team is now slowing down after the breakneck pace of the opening rounds, allowing them to play their natural game.
Click to expand...

Port won't get near it.
 
drazah said:
Bizarre mental gymnastics to exclude both Sydney and West Coast but somehow St Kilda counts for you...
Click to expand...
If you have to count Sydney, it would had to be as a team that was rock bottom for the first 6 weeks of the year. West Coast I put a * to it as it was a funny side note as even though they were a top 8 team at the start of the round, by the time you played them, they fell to 9th... ;)
Count St. Kilda? How?
 
Think Adelaide have one spot in the grand final with all home finals. They're going to be very hard to beat in Adelaide. The other spot could be anyone really
 
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