Opinion Will either Carlton or Essendon be the bolter in 2022?

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?


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Arr0w

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I see players like Nic Nat, Cripps and JPK as increasingly as NFL specialist teams players. Sure, chuck them in at centre bounces but get them off asap as they are not great in general play.

Personally I hope Cripps can get back to health. I enjoyed watching his period of dominance.

But really Carlton took a big punt with his his contract. If the Blues are to improve, I expect a healthy Cripps to be a minor player.

Neither will have to align for us to improve
 

Ambrosia

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I think the biggest hurdle for both sides improving next year is that the overall competition should be stronger especially around the middle part of the ladder. (assuming covid doesn’t impact the season)

- Sydney and GWS will get their home ground back and keep adding top end talent via academies

- Essendon, Carlton, StKilda, Freo and Hawthorn will all be expecting to improve just based on list demographics

- Richmond will likely see 2022 as their last real chance at challenging the top of the ladder while Martin is still a force.

2021 saw a clear gap between the top 6/7 sides and the rest of the league. Next year I think it’s feasible that the middle 6 teams are significantly stronger
 

Psicosis

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The gap between Carltons best & worst players is big IMO. Looking at some of the mock best 22's on their board, I cannot see that side playing finals in 2022. The backline (without Jones, it is a hail Mary to expect Young/McGovern to step into that role) & the midfield (The drop off after Walsh & Cerra is a steeper cliff then Geelong's age demographic) are big concerns.

They have been unsuccessful in developing good role players & their bottom 10 players in their 22 are a testament to that.
 

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Ambrosia

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The gap between Carltons best & worst players is big IMO. Looking at some of the mock best 22's on their board, I cannot see that side playing finals in 2022. The backline (without Jones, it is a hail Mary to expect Young/McGovern to step into that role) & the midfield (The drop off after Walsh & Cerra is a steeper cliff then Geelong's age demographic) are big concerns.

They have been unsuccessful in developing good role players & their bottom 10 players in their 22 are a testament to that.

Agree with this take. The counter point is surely the top end talent matters more and sides have shown they can pick up role players fairly easily.

Richmond had a similar issue then in then added Castagna, Butler, Nankervis, Broad, Short and Caddy over 2-3 off seasons
 

Grand Uncle Horace

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The gap between Carltons best & worst players is big IMO. Looking at some of the mock best 22's on their board, I cannot see that side playing finals in 2022. The backline (without Jones, it is a hail Mary to expect Young/McGovern to step into that role) & the midfield (The drop off after Walsh & Cerra is a steeper cliff then Geelong's age demographic) are big concerns.

They have been unsuccessful in developing good role players & their bottom 10 players in their 22 are a testament to that.

Agree about the drop off. However, as I have argued elsewhere in this thread Hewett is a key recruit. He, Walsh and Cerra will be the key mids with Cripps providing cameos.
 

Grand Uncle Horace

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Agree with this take. The counter point is surely the top end talent matters more and sides have shown they can pick up role players fairly easily.

Richmond had a similar issue then in then added Castagna, Butler, Nankervis, Broad, Short and Caddy over 2-3 off seasons

By contrast the Bombers have few A graders but a more even spread of B graders and some quality young players that Carlton lack (exc Walsh and Cerra).
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Norm Smith Medallist
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I think the biggest hurdle for both sides improving next year is that the overall competition should be stronger especially around the middle part of the ladder. (assuming covid doesn’t impact the season)

- Sydney and GWS will get their home ground back and keep adding top end talent via academies

- Essendon, Carlton, StKilda, Freo and Hawthorn will all be expecting to improve just based on list demographics

- Richmond will likely see 2022 as their last real chance at challenging the top of the ladder while Martin is still a force.

2021 saw a clear gap between the top 6/7 sides and the rest of the league. Next year I think it’s feasible that the middle 6 teams are significantly stronger
I agree with what you’re saying but it never plays out like that. There will be a very meh side make the 8 I have no doubt.
 

Ambrosia

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By contrast the Bombers have few A graders but a more even spread of B graders and some quality young players that Carlton lack (exc Walsh and Cerra).

Yeah I would agree.

Carlton have mitigated their poor drafting and development somewhat by recruiting players from other clubs though. Martin (PSD), Williams (FA), Hewett (FA) and Newman (nothing pick) are all reasonable talents for freebies.

If they could just up their strike rate in drafting I expect them to rise up the ladder especially if Cripps can get it together
 

WilloTree

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Back to back AA, back to back top 5 finishes in the Brownlow, 2019 afcpa award. He was there abouts come the end on the 2019, depends on who you ask I guess.

It’s all a bit arbitrary really, whether he was top 5 or top 10, everyone’s going to have a slightly different opinion. The original point remains the same.

i find it odd that out of everything said in the last few posts, that’s the part you have an issue with. Each to their own I guess
Calm down, I have no issue with it. The saying seems to be doing the rounds a bit is all.
 

Yoda_

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By contrast the Bombers have few A graders but a more even spread of B graders and some quality young players that Carlton lack (exc Walsh and Cerra).

Carlton A Graders - Walsh, Cripps, Weitering, McKay

Essendon A Graders - Merret, Parish, Stringer, Ridley




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Ambrosia

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Carlton A Graders - Walsh, Cripps, Weitering, McKay

Essendon A Graders - Merret, Parish, Stringer, Ridley




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rightly or wrongly I think most neutrals would have McKay and Walsh as the best two players of the names you’ve listed which sort of lends itself to them having more top end talent.
 

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RobR

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Rightly or wrongly I think most neutrals would have McKay and Walsh as the best two players of the names you’ve listed which sort of lends itself to them having more top end talent.
I'm not to concerned with the top end talent, I'll be watching Kemp, Philp, Durdin, Carroll and Motlop. These come on we'll improve greatly.
 

Ambrosia

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I'm not to concerned with the top end talent, I'll be watching Kemp, Philp, Durdin, Carroll and Motlop. These come on we'll improve greatly.

I doubt 2022 is their year that they really impact games on a consistent basis. For mine if Carlton are to take a big step forward in 2022 it’ll be getting more from guys like Martin, McGovern, Williams, Dow, Setterfield, C.Curnow, Fisher, TDK who have the experience and talent to really elevate their production in from 2021 to 2022.

I mean to contrast Essendon 2021 while it was great that Cox, Perkins, Jones and Durham were able to break into the side as first or second year players and contribute with cameos. It was improvement from senior players that was the main driver for us exceeding expectations. Parish, Stewart, Laverde, Draper, Stringer, Heppell, Redman, Cutler and Snelling all being significantly better in 2021 then 2020.
 

Yoda_

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I doubt 2022 is their year that they really impact games on a consistent basis. For mine if Carlton are to take a big step forward in 2022 it’ll be getting more from guys like Martin, McGovern, Williams, Dow, Setterfield, C.Curnow, Fisher, TDK who have the experience and talent to really elevate their production in from 2021 to 2022.

I mean to contrast Essendon 2021 while it was great that Cox, Perkins, Jones and Durham were able to break into the side as first or second year players and contribute with cameos. It was improvement from senior players that was the main driver for us exceeding expectations. Parish, Stewart, Laverde, Draper, Stringer, Heppell, Redman, Cutler and Snelling all being significantly better in 2021 then 2020.

This has been exactly my point right throughout on why Essendon is ahead of Carlton.

Of course we can expect Cox, Perkins, Reid, Jones to improve with such a high ceiling but our rapid rate of improvement was on the back of the guys you mentioned having breakout / career best years. Parish, Laverde, Langford, Stewart etc.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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Ignoring injuries I think Cripps getting back to his best and a little improvement from Cerra would be about the biggest driver for us improving. That would pretty much take us from having one of the worst midfields to one of the better ones in the league. I’m confident the rest would take care of its self.
 

Ambrosia

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This has been exactly my point right throughout on why Essendon is ahead of Carlton.

Of course we can expect Cox, Perkins, Reid, Jones to improve with such a high ceiling but our rapid rate of improvement was on the back of the guys you mentioned having breakout / career best years. Parish, Laverde, Langford, Stewart etc.

Even in 2022 if we were to make another leap (not predicting we will think it’ll be more a consolidation year) I’d expect the big drivers of the improvement to be players like Shiel, McGrath and Caldwell who all had 2021 ruined by injury plus Stewart, Draper and Wright building on their solid but not spectacular 2021s.

Unless you’re Walsh level of talent first/second year guys rarely contribute significantly to winning on a consistent basis. I guess Rivers, Jackson and Pickett is the counter argument to that for Melbourne.
 

Yoda_

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Even in 2022 if we were to make another leap (not predicting we will think it’ll be more a consolidation year) I’d expect the big drivers of the improvement to be players like Shiel, McGrath and Caldwell who all had 2021 ruined by injury plus Stewart, Draper and Wright building on their solid but not spectacular 2021s.

Unless you’re Walsh level of talent first/second year guys rarely contribute significantly to winning on a consistent basis. I guess Rivers, Jackson and Pickett is the counter argument to that for Melbourne.
I tend to agree. We're probably where we could be with our best 22 but for us to take that next step it is the next batch of stars going to the next level.

Having Shiel &/or McGrath go from role player to star would be an added bonus imho. Caldwell I want to place with those recent draftees even though he is a year older than them iirc
 

Ambrosia

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I tend to agree. We're probably where we could be with our best 22 but for us to take that next step it is the next batch of stars going to the next level.

Having Shiel &/or McGrath go from role player to star would be an added bonus imho. Caldwell I want to place with those recent draftees even though he is a year older than them iirc

I think Shiel is slept on. Yes we overpaid for him but his best is still very very good. He was regularly our best player in his first two seasons before injuries impacted his continuity. McGrath only has to get back to his 2020 form to be a big improvement on 2021.

Yeah agree on Caldwell he was more included because any consistent contribution is a big upgrade on 2021. Obviously 2022 will have its own injuries that counteract it.
 

Yoda_

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I think Shiel is slept on. Yes we overpaid for him but his best is still very very good. He was regularly our best player in his first two seasons before injuries impacted his continuity. McGrath only has to get back to his 2020 form to be a big improvement on 2021.

Yeah agree on Caldwell he was more included because any consistent contribution is a big upgrade on 2021. Obviously 2022 will have its own injuries that counteract it.
It's a nice problem to have with Shiel running in our second string midfield group. McGrath getting back to his best is paramount as his lateral movement on the ball is second to none. Just unsure what we do with him when he isn't playing midfield minutes will also be a big question that needs answered.
 

Ambrosia

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It's a nice problem to have with Shiel running in our second string midfield group. McGrath getting back to his best is paramount as his lateral movement on the ball is second to none. Just unsure what we do with him when he isn't playing midfield minutes will also be a big question that needs answered.

I think there’s value in playing him in the Mr Fixit/Utility role ala Bartel, Burgoyne ect. McGrath is a really committed team player and we currently play Guelfi in that role so he’d be massive upgrade. It’d see him spend time mainly on the wing and HFF but throw him in at centre bounces or give him different defensive assignments week to week.

He’s clearly the one with most utility outside the midfield out of Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Caldwell
 

Yoda_

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I think there’s value in playing him in the Mr Fixit/Utility role ala Bartel, Burgoyne ect. McGrath is a really committed team player and we currently play Guelfi in that role so he’d be massive upgrade. It’d see him spend time mainly on the wing and HFF but throw him in at centre bounces or give him different defensive assignments week to week.

He’s clearly the one with most utility outside the midfield out of Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Caldwell

You make a good point, can Essendon only play one of Guelfi or McGarth in the best 22?
 

Arr0w

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This has been exactly my point right throughout on why Essendon is ahead of Carlton.

Of course we can expect Cox, Perkins, Reid, Jones to improve with such a high ceiling but our rapid rate of improvement was on the back of the guys you mentioned having breakout / career best years. Parish, Laverde, Langford, Stewart etc.

We might be finally getting somewhere.Were the bolded players expected and or predicted to have career best years? Surely players at other clubs can and will, do the same. This is not so much about the player, but the structure that allows some players to improve, while unfortunately some decline

It's also pointless listing A/B/C/D graders or AA players as that also changes dependent on the back of a teams overall improvement under said better structure
 

Ambrosia

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You make a good point, can Essendon only play one of Guelfi or McGarth in the best 22?

Is it a question worth considering? Guelfi is a fairly limited depth player. Obviously I’m not giving up on him and he can make it as a pressure small forward but atm he’s very much in 23-30 range of the list