LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[GreyCrow]

Why are you winking at me? I'm frightened...

I was winking at the irony of a new election on or around the date it would have been called if not for those nasty unionists

 

[Messenger]

I was winking at the irony of a new election on or around the date it would have been called if not for those nasty unionists

Oh, fair enough.

 

[Jiska]

I wish everytime I was "rejected", I was still the winner.

Turnbull lost ground sure, but I see it as a correction from the disaster that was 2013 for ALP, and Shorten campaigned very well. I have no doubt that Abbott would have been obliterated. Turnbull stemmed the bleeding on the ineviteble.

Ultimately though, the Coalition will win, so talks from ALP about the public "rejecting" them is just poor-loser bullshit.

Disclaimer: I did not vote blue

Underdog which 9 seats of the 10 in doubt will the Libs win to win.

 

[The Speaker]

I agree, what kind of support does Bernardi have in the Liberal Party?

About half of it.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hearing murmurs from people involved with the liberal party that internally the liberals have pretty much conceded that Shorten will be the prime minister and Malcolm is cooked.

Hmm. Andrew Bolt last week

The case for Shorten as PM
SOME conservatives believe Malcolm Turnbull must be replaced, even if it takes three more years of Labor led by Bill Shorten to do it, writes Andrew Bolt.


Its groundhog day!

If Bolts so critical of the liberal leadership, nothing stopping him nominating

 

[Chameleon75]

About half of it.

the ghost of Lyenko Urbanchich still walks the party room

 

[Pie eyed]

I believe I have solved this one. Pie Eyed was looking at the 2 Party Preferred, not the primary votes. Demonsthenes mistakenly assumed that Pie Eyed was not adding all the Coalition parties' votes together to get to those numbers. It's nothing to do with pedantry, just miscommunications.

Here are the facts: The Labor Party is currently ahead on to 2PP by 0.44%. The Coalition have more primary votes, though.

Possibly I'm looking at the wrong figures, I'll accept that.
Apologies to Demonthenes.

 

[Pie eyed]

Hmm. Andrew Bolt last week

The case for Shorten as PM
SOME conservatives believe Malcolm Turnbull must be replaced, even if it takes three more years of Labor led by Bill Shorten to do it, writes Andrew Bolt.


Its groundhog day!

If Bolts so critical of the liberal leadership, nothing stopping him nominating

Classic serial killer move from Bolt.

Lure Shorten to a remote locale for an "interview" and "Whoop!" Into the pot with him Dhamer style

 

[Mateyman]

The Greens cant take it
Danbys preferences went to the Libs on his Card

They went to the Greens in Jewish districts and Labor elsewhere. The impression I got was that most of them went to the Greens but say 20 or 30% of the cards said Liberals. I would expect greens to get most of the roughly 6% 'other' vote as well from animal rights, Hemp and marriage equality. Then say 70% of Danby's preferences is very gettable IMO.

 

[Underdog]

Underdog which 9 seats of the 10 in doubt will the Libs win to win.

View attachment 263212

My comment was based on the predictions offered by the analysts on election night, which were stated pretty definitively - if it changes, so be it.

I'm really not interested in debating this matter, particularly when a final result is yet to be determined.

 

[Forward Press]

Has there ever been research done on the proportion of voters that have preferences following How To Vote cards? Obviously a big deal where parties list each other but there surely must still be significant amounts of voters that don't follow them.

 

[Mateyman]

Has there ever been research done on the proportion of voters that have preferences following How To Vote cards? Obviously a big deal where parties list each other but there surely must still be significant amounts of voters that don't follow them.

I think it depends on party. I've heard Green to Labour preferences are usually around 85% ish, whereas Liberal preferences seem to split more evenly between ALP and Green in seats like Melbourne (I think).

 

[Procrastinator35]

Underdog which 9 seats of the 10 in doubt will the Libs win to win.

View attachment 263212

Chism & Petrie likely....Capricornia & Hindmarsh 50/50....Forget the rest.

 

[nobbyiscool]

The Greens cant take it
Danbys preferences went to the Libs on his Card

Didn't Labor HQ slap him down over a week before the election? There's no way he was handing out his own HTVs on Saturday... is there?

While I don't doubt he'd be spiteful enough to do it, there isn't a Labor volunteer in Melbourne who would've agreed to handing out HTVF other than Labors official cards.

 

[Mateyman]

Didn't Labor HQ slap him down over a week before the election? There's no way he was handing out his own HTVs on Saturday... is there?

While I don't doubt he'd be spiteful enough to do it, there isn't a Labor volunteer in Melbourne who would've agreed to handing out HTVF other than Labors official cards.

Pretty sure he mainly handed them out at pre-polls. I certainly got a HTV card preferencing the greens. His argument of "I won't go to preferences anyway so it doesn't matter" was particularly bizarre

 

[JackOutback]

Who the hell votes according to how to vote cards?

 

[Forward Press]

Who the hell votes according to how to vote cards?

I'm sure most in this thread don't, but others who aren't as keenly into politics do. Hence the existence of the donkey vote.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Who the hell votes according to how to vote cards?

There's plenty of party members & hardcore supporters who do; up to 20% decide on the day who they're voting for and at least base them around the HTV.

It'd be more than you'd expect I reckon. I've not done it a lot, and I never follow HTVs in the Senate, but I believed strongly enough in a candidate this year that I followed the lower house HTV.

 

[The Speaker]

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/07/preference-flows-at-federal-elections-1996-2013.html

 

[Crankyhawk]

So are we a democracy or just a mob?

and what happens if it ended up being a wrongful conviction? You've allowed the assault (and stripping of human rights) of an innocent man.

I'm looking at repeat offenders, or those who the judge calls clear scum. Willing for some innocents to be possibly sacrificed. For example Jill meagher family should have had opportunities to smash that campaigner Bayly. Repeat sex offender who dumbcampaigner parole board kept letting out.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Some people deserve stripping of the right to vote IMO. Starting with you.

? Unless you have something to hide.

And my vote is currently irrelevant as, living in non marginal seat.

 

[Crankyhawk]

You're OK with assault though? Is that sort of a non-crime?

I'm ok with corporal punishment and letting the victims of the initial crime carry it out.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Willing for some innocents to be possibly sacrificed.

That's disgusting.

That's someone career, future prospects, their friendships all gone.

That's family who could be impacted, kids bullied etc.

One of the central tenets of the British legal system that ours is based on is Blackstone's Ratio - that ten guilty men should go free before one innocent man suffers.

The notion that you are apparently so fast and loose with people's Liberty, and so happy to see innocent people suffer is outrageous.

 

[skilts]

D

I'm ok with corporal punishment and letting the victims of the initial crime carry it out.

Do you indulge in bondage and discipline as well as sadism?

 

[Crankyhawk]

That's disgusting.

That's someone career, future prospects, their friendships all gone.

That's family who could be impacted, kids bullied etc.

One of the central tenets of the British legal system that ours is based on is Blackstone's Ratio - that ten guilty men should go free before one innocent man suffers.

The notion that you are apparently so fast and loose with people's Liberty, and so happy to see innocent people suffer is outrageous.

Did you see the types I was looking at? It's in lieu of having capital punishment and may give some satisfaction for victims of crime. And I'm not expecting it to be frequent (Andrew Bayly levels of non rehabilitate and taxpayers wastage - cheaper to shoot the ****er)