LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[Gough]

With all of the conservatives sharpening their knives, I find it difficult to see how the PM can offer guarantees on Medicare.

 

[Belnakor]

Green has called Grey for the Liberals which makes getting to 76 almost certain unless there is a dramatic shift based on postals

 

[Beauy420]

Is a minority coalition government considered 'a hung parliament'?

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[Belnakor]

Is a minority coalition government considered 'a hung parliament'?

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if either side doesn't make 76 you can call it a hung parliament since they cannot form government immediately. Though a minority coalition government is probably only likely to be formed as 75 + Katter which wouldn't take very long to happen i wouldn't imagine.

 

[Badesumofu]

Green has called Grey for the Liberals which makes getting to 76 almost certain unless there is a dramatic shift based on postals

Think you've mucked your count up a bit. Labor are ahead in 5 of the 9 seats in doubt. The Liberals would need to win 7 of them.

 

[Lebbo73]

Think you've mucked your count up a bit. Labor are ahead in 5 of the 9 seats in doubt. The Liberals would need to win 7 of them.

I heard something before that said the Libs will win the remaining seats in doubt if the prepoll postal votes track like in 2013. I don't believe it but that was what I heard.

 

[Hawk Dork]

With all of the conservatives sharpening their knives, I find it difficult to see how the PM can offer guarantees on Medicare.

With all the stabbing Medicare will be needed more than ever

 

[Crankyhawk]

None of this has a jot to do with the election. Start a thread for violent retribution and vigilante justice elsewhere.

Fair enough, it sort of started as where/ what could Hinch do but derailed

 

[sherb]

The good thing out of all this is that the conservatives have now been well and truly cornered on Medicare.

 

[Belnakor]

Think you've mucked your count up a bit. Labor are ahead in 5 of the 9 seats in doubt. The Liberals would need to win 7 of them.

https://d31fjbthwxlyse.cloudfront.net/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/07/late-count-2016-07-05.png

i would be surprised if they don't get up in some of the closer ones based on previous postals. But then Cowan for example i'd expect that to widen. Just a guess.

 

[Badesumofu]

If Labor win Capricornia, Cowan, and Herbert which are all very likely, they get 70 seats and limit the Coalition to 75. Labor is about 1000 ahead in all 3 of those.

Forde and Hindmarsh are going to be very close. I'm thinking Labor get between 70 and 72. That leaves the Coalition on 73 - 75.

Having said that, Labor are within a few hundred votes in Gilmore, Chisolm, and Dunkley. If the remaining votes break Labor's way, it's not totally inconceivable that Labor get 75 seats. If I was Shorten with 75 I would immediately seek to test my support on the floor of the house. Bandt would effectively support them without any deal needing to be in place based on his and his leader's statements during the campaign. I'd be shocked if Wilkie opposed them forming a government under those circumstances either.

 

[Belnakor]

They won't get within a bulls roar in Dunkley. If Shorten can get to 75 then he should definately be able to govern. But won't happen.

 

[Badesumofu]

https://d31fjbthwxlyse.cloudfront.net/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/07/late-count-2016-07-05.png

i would be surprised if they don't get up in some of the closer ones based on previous postals. But then Cowan for example i'd expect that to widen. Just a guess.

I'm going based on the ABC count and Anthony Green. Although even what you just linked is only projecting 75 seats for Coalition.

ABC just called Petrie for the Coalition. So it's 70 - 67 on called seats now.

 

[Donakebab]

https://d31fjbthwxlyse.cloudfront.net/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/07/late-count-2016-07-05.png

i would be surprised if they don't get up in some of the closer ones based on previous postals. But then Cowan for example i'd expect that to widen. Just a guess.

Who's blog is this from?

 

[Belnakor]

I'm going based on the ABC count and Anthony Green. Although even what you just linked is only projecting 75 seats for Coalition.

ABC just called Petrie for the Coalition. So it's 70 - 67 on called seats now.

thats from poll bludger he is pretty good. Forde is going to be awfully close on projections which would be the 76th seat. There is also Katter obviously.

 

[Belnakor]

Who's blog is this from?

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/07/05/late-counting-progressively-updated/

 

[Badesumofu]

They won't get within a bulls roar in Dunkley. If Shorten can get to 75 then he should definately be able to govern. But won't happen.

I wouldn't think so, Dunkley very likely to go LNP. But the graphic you've linked very dubiously gives Flynn to the LNP on projection. I also think it is extremely optimistic about the LNP's chances in Capricornia.

 

[pjcrows]

Reckon Libs get to 76 here.

 

[Experimental]

Interesting to hear Xenophon's comments today on recognising the great difficulty the coalition is going to have in passing bills through the senate and that it's something he's acknowledged. IIRC, to paraphrase his response to a question regarding who he would support if neither major party reaches 76 votes, he said that the greater number of seats isn't necessarily the most important issue in how he'll decide where his party's support will lie in the HOR.

The senate is very much in Labor's favour, and anybody siding with the Coalition expecting something in return should be wary.

If the Coalition only reaches 73 seats, it's entirely plausible that Shorten may become PM with the support of NXT, Bandt, and Wilkie.

But even accepting the idea that the coalition are inevitably going to govern for another term, with the support of Katter, they still need to appoint a speaker and maintain control of the House with a tiny majority - especially given the split in conservative and progressive Libs on particular issues.

No matter how you look at it, Turnbull is in deep shit.

 

[Demosthenes]

I have a lot of respect for Antony Green and everything he's done over the years, but his preference forecasting at the last couple of elections has been decidedly dodgy.

I think he needs to revisit some of the underlying assumptions behind that aspect of his methodology.

 

[Pie eyed]

Bishop on 7.30 mewling and whining like a 3 year old.
These flogs don't even acknowledge their shitness.
They are unfit to run let alone rule.

 

[nut]

Looks like the result is labors fault again...
I'm starting to feel so sorry for the Libs...
labors fault... Labors fault

 

[Gavin Excell]

I have a lot of respect for Antony Green and everything he's done over the years, but his preference forecasting at the last couple of elections has been decidedly dodgy.

I think he needs to revisit some of the underlying assumptions behind that aspect of his methodology.

What!

 

[Experimental]

At the moment (roughly 8PM eastern), the ABC have declared the following:

LNP - 70 seats
ALP - 67 seats
Undetermined - 8 seats
Total - 150 seats
Required for majority - 76 seats

Similarly, ABC has predicted that of the above 8 seats that are too close to call, the following ditribution will likely occur:

LNP - 4 seats
ALP - 5 seats

Which in total, after the assumption that the ABC's prediction is correct, we've got:

LNP - 74 seats
ALP - 72 seats

Anything is possible, but if we assume that the above will be the result, then neither party has enough for a majority in the lower house.

Further assumptions would have Bandt and Wilkie siding with the ALP, having Labor 74 seats. Katter will most likely side with the coalition, giving them 75 seats.

Then you've got McGowan (IND) and Sharkie (NXT) holding the balance of power, and we've got no idea who'd they support. If McGowan sticks to her word, she'll support neither, giving Sharkie the opportunity to support the coalition and form government on an absolute minority, or support the ALP and hope that a vote of confidence/no confidence in the house gives ol' Bill the Prime Ministership.

Very interesting times ahead if that's the case.

 

[Demosthenes]

What!

Preference flows have diverged a lot from traditional norms over the last few years, I feel like his projections still give too much weight to historical data. In the most recent NSW and Qld elections it sort of bit him in the arse, as a result he's become a lot more cautious with his predictions.

I'm no professional psephologist, but I've been a bit disappointed by how slow he's been to adapt to the changing political landscape. You could say that elections are simply harder to predict these days, I suppose. I kind of feel like that's a cop-out though.