Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[plays tall 1]

My 1,2,3 for what it’s worth at this stage is:

1. Yucatan (last run speaks for itself)
2. Youngstar (exceptional sectionals in the CC and bred to get 2 miles)
3. Cliffs of Moher (both runs had merit just wish he wouldn’t hang)

The CC being run on a soft track, which some have suggested was more like heavy given the times, has complicated matters. Conditions on the day, barrier draw and final field may lead to slight revision.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Prepared to give Chestnut Coat another chance provided he draws a good barrier and a dry track. Especially with the odds he is currently at.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I'm not convinced with Cliffs over 2400m let alone 3200 after watching his previous runs.

 

[bigpapagman]

No one said he could make the field, and no one said he can win. He'll be in front a long, long way.

Go Runaway.

 

[bigpapagman]

No one said he could make the field, and no one said he can win*. He'll be in front a long, long way.

Go Runaway.

* he can't

 

[LFC2010]

Williams to ride Youngstar. There goes it's chances!!!.

 

[RDazzle]

With Rostropovich Im not too dishearten by his Cox Plate.
Did it a tough and did cover a lot more ground then any other horse.
Drops down to 51kgs which is going to be huge.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

As others mentioned earlier can't believe the price on offer for Chestnut Coat
Spooked from 1 run in ground he doesn't like with a tempo that was all over the place
Took some more at 41's today

Agree re: Youngstar, will be in my multiples

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Still not into Yucatan at all, like I've mentioned before people blowing thier load over him beating up some plodders with Benalla cup form
One swallow doesn't make a summer.....

 

[onebillsdrive]

Just saw an interview eith TJ Comerford and he said Yucatan was very sore after his last run....but has picked up in the last few says...somewhat a worry at that price

 

[Mobythepom]

Poll latest: Yucatan starting to edge clear.............still no love for Best Solution.

Yucatan 20
Rostropovich 14
Muntahaa 10
Magic Circle 9
Cliffs of Moher 6
Cross Counter 9
Youngstar 5
Marmelo 2
Avilius 1

 

[Mobythepom]

Still not into Yucatan at all, like I've mentioned before people blowing thier load over him beating up some plodders with Benalla cup form
One swallow doesn't make a summer.....

But it might make a girlfriend into a fiancé.

 

[Mobythepom]

A few more dosage figures at the bottom of the 24 if anyone interested:

Runaway 2.0
Ventura Storm 1.5
Sir Charles Road 1.33
Zacada 1.20

None of them ideal for 2 miles on paper, particularly the top 2.

 

[Mobythepom]

No way does it start half the price, will likely be somewhere in the 30s come race day

Update: The Muntahaa 33/1 gibbon has been stood down

 

[Bombers32]

Moby - Avilius has gone backwards.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

can we still vote for Latrobe?

 

[Mobythepom]

Good spot, told you it wouldn't stay!!

Yucatan 20
Rostropovich 14
Muntahaa 10
Magic Circle 9
Cross Counter 9
Cliffs of Moher 6
Youngstar 5
Avilius 3
Marmelo 2

 

[Bombers32]

Good spot, told you it wouldn't stay!!

Yucatan 20
Rostropovich 14
Muntahaa 10
Magic Circle 9
Cross Counter 9
Cliffs of Moher 6
Youngstar 5
Avilius 3
Marmelo 2

Thanks Moby - Thought my third placing for Avilius had resulted in it losing points! Like keeping an eye on this, thanks for collating.

 

[FFB1]

With Rostropovich Im not too dishearten by his Cox Plate.
Did it a tough and did cover a lot more ground then any other horse.
Drops down to 51kgs which is going to be huge.

Ran 17m more than Avilius for what it’s worth.

 

[FFB1]

As others mentioned earlier can't believe the price on offer for Chestnut Coat
Spooked from 1 run in ground he doesn't like with a tempo that was all over the place
Took some more at 41's today

Agree re: Youngstar, will be in my multiples

60s available on the fair today.

Each to their own but befuddles me why anyone backs cup horses on TAB/corps at about 150% when the fair is around the 108%.

 

[Hamingja]

Second declarations tomorrow so we’ll get a pretty good idea if needs to run and win the Lexus.

Needed 14 to drop out and got 9 already.

Duretto might be one more closer to the date.

Are Red Cardinal and Auvray going to run? Waste of money for connections going around.

Who else would be doubtful? Tosen Basil & Ace High? Looks like most will run if they are sound now.

Lexus winner might get promoted. What does Gai's 3yo need to do to get a run via the derby? 4kg penalty? Played up on the news but would seem unlikely that could make it.

 

[RDazzle]

Ran 17m more than Avilius for what it’s worth.

Ok nice, was going to guess 22m as a wild guess but if someone asked how I got that figure I would have blanks.
haha Im bias as ive backed him early at $81s.
So maybe he still a shot

 

[HeathySure]

Needed 14 to drop out and got 9 already.

Duretto might be one more closer to the date.

Are Red Cardinal and Auvray going to run? Waste of money for connections going around.

Who else would be doubtful? Tosen Basil & Ace High? Looks like most will run if they are sound now.

Lexus winner might get promoted. What does Gai's 3yo need to do to get a run via the derby? 4kg penalty? Played up on the news but would seem unlikely that could make it.

I think he needs to win the Derby to qualify, then straight in as he already has over wfa weight

 

[Viva la Mattner]

60s available on the fair today.

Each to their own but befuddles me why anyone backs cup horses on TAB/corps at about 150% when the fair is around the 108%.

I tried Betfair I couldn't make sense of it so gave up
Was a few years ago, so should maybe have another look

 

[Mobythepom]

I tried Betfair I couldn't make sense of it so gave up
Was a few years ago, so should maybe have another look

Yeah you should - generally way better value