List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[bungee]

2003

16 Willoughby (0)
29 Schmidt (17)
47 Ericksen (0)
59 Davis (0)

2004

31 Moore (68)
47 Spriggs (5)
61 James (0)

2005

51 Laidlaw (1)
54 Thornton (8)
59 Brabazon (3)

2006

15 D.O’Keefe (0)
49 Currie (10)
65 Faulks (0)
79 White (127)

2007
11 Veszpremi (23)
26 Meredith (16)
59 Bird (157)

2008

12 Johnston (10)
30 Hannerbery (213)
61 Heath (14)

2009

6 Rohan (125)
14 Jetta (196)
38 Reid (143)
54 Sumner (1)
55 TDL (29)
90 Thornton (0)

2010
21 Lamb (66)
40 Parker (195)
57 Johnson (47)
101 Pyke (84)

2011

21 Mitchell (111)
43 Lockyer (0)
61 Brown (0)
85 Gordon (21)

2012

22 Towers (57)
44 Marsh (25)
46 Membrey (92)
64 Dick (6)
107 Cunningham (112)

2013

15 Jones (90)
32 Hewett (93)
35 Nankervis (71)
44 Aliir (50)
80 B Jack (19)
90 Rampe (136)

2014

18 Heeney (102)
37 Rose (14)
38 Hiscox (1)
70 Davis (0)

2015

3 Mills (77)
51 Leonardis (0)
56 Dawson (25)

2016

11 Florent (53)
21 Hayward (53)
45 Maibaum (0)
48 Cameron (1)

2017

14 Ling (0)
33 McCartin (34)
53 Stoddart (4)

2018

10 Blakey (21)
25 Rowbottom (12)
44 McInerney (1)
51 Foot (0)

1st pick av 50 games
2nd pick av 56 games
3rd pick av 35 games
Last pick av 43 games

 

[Kapers]

Classic. Might take this as my signature

Idea AND quote stolen

 

[Kapers]

Stoddart and Ling were supposed to be excellent kicks and look how much of an impact they have made.

Exactly, that's why I'm saying that a young will have a lot more work ahead of him than a similarly rated mid would. But I think it's unarguable that most draft picks never reach their potential, which is why drafting kids is such a dilemma, and why we have to question what matters more. A guy that we are pretty sure will make a impact, a pretty safe bet, or someone that has the potential to change the entire dynamic of the team IF they can reach their potential.

On that note, I would still pick serong, just because having kids that want to be there, that are excited to meet all the players they've supported, to get a great tackler and a hard worker is more important than getting the best player in the draft (within reason, I'm not saying reach for a pick 40 because he supports the swans, but serong is there abouts for pick 5/6).

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Exactly, that's why I'm saying that a young will have a lot more work ahead of him than a similarly rated mid would. But I think it's unarguable that most draft picks never reach their potential, which is why drafting kids is such a dilemma, and why we have to question what matters more. A guy that we are pretty sure will make a impact, a pretty safe bet, or someone that has the potential to change the entire dynamic of the team IF they can reach their potential.

On that note, I would still pick serong, just because having kids that want to be there, that are excited to meet all the players they've supported, to get a great tackler and a hard worker is more important than getting the best player in the draft (within reason, I'm not saying reach for a pick 40 because he supports the swans, but serong is there abouts for pick 5/6).

I won’t be upset if we draft Serong but I feel as though we have the even quality to take us through the next decade and what we’re missing (or will be missing) is that out and out superstar.
I think the player in this draft with that potential is Kemp.

 

[RobbieK]

I won’t be upset if we draft Serong but I feel as though we have the even quality to take us through the next decade and what we’re missing (or will be missing) is that out and out superstar.
I think the player in this draft with that potential is Kemp.

Blakey is the potential superstar.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Blakey is the potential superstar.

True. I forgot him. Don’t share the view that he should play inside though.

 

[Wayne Swan]

Getting the feeling live pick swaps will be rife this year, and from now probably in future years too.

We're all amateurs at picking talent but the club's draft board will have them well sorted and probably prepared to do pick swaps that will have us shaking our head at the time.

Could we swing a trade night surprise trading pick 5/6 for a couple of later picks? Most clubs will have several pre arranged swaps ready to go if certain players are gone or still there during the draft.

 

[Keyter]

I wonder if the swans have begun to use AI in sorting through all the draft data? The draft has really become like investing with all the permutations.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Could we swing a trade night surprise trading pick 5/6 for a couple of later picks? Most clubs will have several pre arranged swaps ready to go if certain players are gone or still there during the draft.

Please no. Having pick 5/6 potentially gets that A grader, two late firsts (say Geelong's), in this draft may not.

 

[Del198236]

I wonder if the swans have begun to use AI in sorting through all the draft data? The draft has really become like investing with all the permutations.

Depending on who's left come our p5/6, Id be happy to trade with Freo for 10 & 22. If we miss the p5/6, I dont think the swans would want to drop any further than p10, and would only go there if they think they can get an equivalent player that they want at 10 than with 5, and improve a later pick.
I get the impression that we want to draft 4 kids, so having 5 decent picks allows an opportunity to upgrade - eg. p25+32 to p14 or 15.. p32+44 = p20
There are so many scenarios that could play out and Ive come up with scenarios where the Swans end up with;
p10,15,22,44;.. p10,20,22,25;.. p10,14,25,32;.. p10,17,20,32 amongst others

 

[RUNVS]

Please no. Having pick 5/6 potentially gets that A grader, two late firsts (say Geelong's), in this draft may not.

Not this year. There is a massive drop in quality after pick 2 to the point where pick 3 and pick 12 are not largely different.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Depending on who's left come our p5/6, Id be happy to trade with Freo for 10 & 22. If we miss the p5/6, I dont think the swans would want to drop any further than p10, and would only go there if they think they can get an equivalent player that they want at 10 than with 5, and improve a later pick.
I get the impression that we want to draft 4 kids, so having 5 decent picks allows an opportunity to upgrade - eg. p25+32 to p14 or 15.. p32+44 = p20
There are so many scenarios that could play out and Ive come up with scenarios where the Swans end up with;
p10,15,22,44;.. p10,20,22,25;.. p10,14,25,32;.. p10,17,20,32 amongst others

Freo won't be an option, they need those for the Henry bid. They are hoping to have two before Henry, with pick 10 being borderline (Carlton may bid).

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not this year. There is a massive drop in quality after pick 2 to the point where pick 3 and pick 12 are not largely different.

Completely disagree. There is a top 2, but for mine there is a clear top 8 or so. Trading down to the late teens is lunacy. How about we give Darymple the chance to pick our highest selection in a decade? He' a gun at first round selections especially high ones.

 

[Del198236]

Freo won't be an option, they need those for the Henry bid. They are hoping to have two before Henry, with pick 10 being borderline (Carlton may bid).

Yep, they're hoping for two bids before Henry, and trading up to p5 guarantees that, as you say p10 doesn't. They've got later picks and can always go into deficit to match Henry.
I reckon Freo (10 & 22), Geelong(14,17,24) and Goldcoast(15,20) are all looking to upgrade two top picks. I like Freo the best because they have p10

 

[RobbieK]

Completely disagree. There is a top 2, but for mine there is a clear top 8 or so. Trading down to the late teens is lunacy. How about we give Darymple the chance to pick our highest selection in a decade? He' a gun at first round selections especially high ones.

So, just to clarify, you both trust Dalrymple to choose quality players but are also signposting that if he doesn't select the type of players you want you will throw your toys out of the pram?

 

[Del198236]

Completely disagree. There is a top 2, but for mine there is a clear top 8 or so. Trading down to the late teens is lunacy. How about we give Darymple the chance to pick our highest selection in a decade? He' a gun at first round selections especially high ones.

Agree, lets give Dalrymple a chance, like you say (his track record) hes a gun at selecting those very early pics. But if he feels wed do aswell at 10 as at 5, and get the chance to improve later pics, then Im happy with that

 

[LukeParkerno1]

So, just to clarify, you both trust Dalrymple to choose quality players but are also signposting that if he doesn't select the type of players you want you will throw you're roots it of the pram?

I trust him period. I have my preferences though and my preferences are mids, or mids with a point of difference, assuming Jackson isn't there at 6, in which case I feel we'd take him

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yep, they're hoping for two bids before Henry, and trading up to p5 guarantees that, as you say p10 doesn't. They've got later picks and can always go into deficit to match Henry.
I reckon Freo (10 & 22), Geelong(14,17,24) and Goldcoast(15,20) are all looking to upgrade two top picks. I like Freo the best because they have p10

Freo need the pick 22 for any Henry bid otherwise they are going into debt next year and they aren't the club that should do that, they are no certainty to make the 8

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Agree, lets give Dalrymple a chance, like you say (his track record) hes a gun at selecting those very early pics. But if he feels wed do aswell at 10 as at 5, and get the chance to improve later pics, then Im happy with that

Still wouldn't do it personally but happy to back him in, and there are a number of options available to us.

 

[Del198236]

Freo need the pick 22 for any Henry bid otherwise they are going into debt next year and they aren't the club that should do that, they are no certainty to make the 8

I reckon the chance of 3 x top 10 pics this year would be pretty enticing, and they'd be happy to sacrifice 700 odd points from next years first to do that.
A lot of clubs are trying to trade out of next years first round because of the amount of academy players tied to clubs in 2020

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I reckon the chance of 3 x top 10 pics this year would be pretty enticing, and they'd be happy to sacrifice 700 odd points from next years first to do that.
A lot of clubs are trying to trade out of next years first round because of the amount of academy players tied to clubs in 2020

The most overrated statement next year will be how "compromised" the draft will be. How often do we hear about this F/S or academy bloke being the best player in the draft and yet they barely go in the first round. Next year is way too far away

 

[Keyter]

If GC are still open to trading pick 1 or 2 for the right price, than surely bidding on Green at 2 is also an option, if they still have both picks? Green would be very handy for them in 2020 and straight into earning some good $’s. Clubs Got to make Life as hard as possible for GWS, imo.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If GC are still open to trading pick 1 or 2 for the right price, than surely bidding on Green at 2 is also an option, if they still have both picks? Green would be very handy for them in 2020 and straight into earning some good $’s. Clubs Got to make Life as hard as possible for GWS, imo.

GC won’t risk not being able to get the two in Rowell and Anderson

 

[McRobie]

would love to see GC bid at 1 or 2 on Green.
Im guessing we go Serong, He looks a decent sort of player but does he have star quality? Jackson looks way too much of a risk given our current list. I mean great if he turns into Grundy but big men take time and patience, he'd prob get home sick and go home as he'd get sick of "developing" in the NEAFL.

 

[Del198236]

The most overrated statement next year will be how "compromised" the draft will be. How often do we hear about this F/S or academy bloke being the best player in the draft and yet they barely go in the first round. Next year is way too far away

if you had a choice of a top 10 pick this year(any year) or the following year, would you draft that player now or wait a year?