Draft Review 2020 - Revisit the 2020 AFL Draft

[bl4ke]

Who here's talking him down?

I think we are just refuting those that come in with "Lolz I cant believe that club didn't take XXX".

There's counter arguments for every player in that top 6, including McDonald.

The WAFL isn't the VFL and it certainly isn't anything special without most of the Fremantle/West Coast listed players filling out the comp missing all year. He rarely played on the best key defender each week. When he did play on a quality young defender (DGB), he was comfortably beaten.

He's a great prospect, but he's not the second coming of Christ. I think it's mostly WA supporters pushing this narrative or general SEN listeners that just gobble up Dwayne Russell all day.

Jesse Hogan kicked 39 goals in 15 games in the VFL in 2013. He won Casey's B&F, made the VFL team of the year and finished 5th in the JJ Liston Trophy for the league B&F at the same age as McDonald. He accomplished all of this despite missing 1/4 of the end of the season with a knee injury.

It's not unprecedented what McDonald did. He was also the third KPP taken in the draft.

The WAFL is of a superior standard

 

[owen87]

The WAFL is of a superior standard

Doubtful.

 

[bl4ke]

Doubtful.

Not really

 

[Laphroaig]

Not really

Yes really.

 

[bl4ke]

Yes really.

What happened the last time VFL and WAFL versed each other? 10 goals wasn't it?

 

[owen87]

What happened the last time VFL and WAFL versed each other? 10 goals wasn't it?

You do realise taking the Best-22 from each comp doesn't represent the strength of the entire comp.... right?

 

[bl4ke]

You do realise taking the Best-22 from each comp doesn't represent the strength of the entire comp.... right?

Well aware, just stating facts. WAFL is the best standard of state league competition followed by the VFL.

 

[Laphroaig]

What happened the last time VFL and WAFL versed each other?

Poetry competition?

 

[owen87]

Well aware, just stating facts. WAFL is the best standard of state league competition followed by the VFL.

Please provide said facts.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Some interesting takes on who "won".

Richmond supporters pointing to their pairs of 2021 picks in each round as a big win but they are all likely to be at the end of rounds, not exactly a bag full of blue chips.

Collingwood took a stack of players in this draft, but if Daicos is as good as touted, at this stage they don't even have the points to match pick 3 without a deficit.

Essendon supporters "loading up" on mids next year, only have their first rounder and next pick way out in the 40s, not likely to be "loading up" and will burn picks if they try again for Dunkley

So too early to call winners, lists are built over several drafts and trade periods, not just one.

18 and 19 would be pretty handy.

Could trade up with a host of other picks, future picks.

A lot of parts of the richmond list are in place already

 

[LukeParkerno1]

18 and 19 would be pretty handy.

Could trade up with a host of other picks, future picks.

Especially next year considering how deep the draft should bat. Some clubs mights rather taking two late firsts, which Richmond for instance might be happy to take one at pick 5 at the top end. The other thing it gives you is trade capital

 

[RUNVS]

I wrote this on the Swans board but I feel it is worth a mention here too

Teams constantly underestimate the younger players in a draft, not considering that being 9 months younger really is a big thing, and that players who are born after September and such actually have more development in them than a player born in the early months of the year.

I mean look at just this year

1. JUH - April
2. Thilthorpe - July
3. Phillips - May
4. McDonald - April
5. Campbell - February
6. DGB - April
7. Hollands - April
8. Cox - January
9. Perkins - March
10. Reid - March

So the youngest player in the top 10 this year was drafted in July, with most drafted in April or earlier.

I wonder how many stars there will be who are 5 months younger than JUH who have been drafted but were not rated nearly as highly because they were 5 months less physically developed.

 

[briztoon]

I wrote this on the Swans board but I feel it is worth a mention here too

Teams constantly underestimate the younger players in a draft, not considering that being 9 months younger really is a big thing, and that players who are born after September and such actually have more development in them than a player born in the early months of the year.

I mean look at just this year

1. JUH - April
2. Thilthorpe - July
3. Phillips - May
4. McDonald - April
5. Campbell - February
6. DGB - April
7. Hollands - April
8. Cox - January
9. Perkins - March
10. Reid - March

So the youngest player in the top 10 this year was drafted in July, with most drafted in April or earlier.

I wonder how many stars there will be who are 5 months younger than JUH who have been drafted but were not rated nearly as highly because they were 5 months less physically developed.

This has been discussed on the Lystics AFL Podcast.

One point they made was that a lot of the early birth kids are the ones who make the elite academies and state teams from a young age, so they’re continually receiving better coaching and opportunities than late year birth kids.

 

[Monkey King]

This has been discussed on the Lystics AFL Podcast.

One point they made was that a lot of the early birth kids are the ones who make the elite academies and state teams from a young age, so they’re continually receiving better coaching and opportunities than late year birth kids.

There was an article about that a few years ago.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/44595/born-to-be-a-star-how-age-can-dictate-a-player-s-afl-hopes

 

[RUNVS]

This has been discussed on the Lystics AFL Podcast.

One point they made was that a lot of the early birth kids are the ones who make the elite academies and state teams from a young age, so they’re continually receiving better coaching and opportunities than late year birth kids.

I just wonder about all the players born from August onwards who got drafted late in the draft who will turn out to be better than a lot of the top 10 players, or worse, all the players born August or later who were not drafted at all because they were younger. Hardly seems fair.

 

[briztoon]

I just wonder about all the players born from August onwards who got drafted late in the draft who will turn out to be better than a lot of the top 10 players, or worse, all the players born August or later who were not drafted at all because they were younger. Hardly seems fair.

This was briefly discussed on the Fox broadcast. Basically by the time they’re in the AFL system, as a successful player, the split is something like ~55% born before July and ~45% born after July. Might be closer than that btw.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It’s called the birthday effect or relative age effect, it happens all over the world and all sports and also has a huge impact on schooling results.

The only way around it imo is to have a change in age groups say half way through the kids development where we start having say u15 and a half representative sides so we give other kids a chance to shine.

I look at players like Weitering and McKay for Carlton and they are only a month or two older then SPS and Setterfield. It’s amazing how cut off dates and not age change our expectations so much and especially early in their careers.


This is a graph from American college sports. It’s pretty obvious the advantage of age has

 

[cityslick1]

I came on here hoping to see more posters pumping up the Pies' draft haul... more please

Buckenara had Henry ranked at no. 5... and the highest of all sub 194cm players, and I'd love to see his reasoning. Didnt give anything away in his HS article.
Personally think Hollands looks an absolute ripper of the smaller players, along with campbell... whilst Phillips looks a safe bet.

Henry has class, but Bucky must see him moving into the midfield, unless he's regularly going to win games off his own boot

 

[Wild Bill]

Well Kyle is playing for Essendon vfl - I had the right Andrew.
Dunkley and his family Are very comfortable with the way essendon approached things. Fact.

Your opinion is not a fact.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I wrote this on the Swans board but I feel it is worth a mention here too

Teams constantly underestimate the younger players in a draft, not considering that being 9 months younger really is a big thing, and that players who are born after September and such actually have more development in them than a player born in the early months of the year.

I mean look at just this year

1. JUH - April
2. Thilthorpe - July
3. Phillips - May
4. McDonald - April
5. Campbell - February
6. DGB - April
7. Hollands - April
8. Cox - January
9. Perkins - March
10. Reid - March

So the youngest player in the top 10 this year was drafted in July, with most drafted in April or earlier.

I wonder how many stars there will be who are 5 months younger than JUH who have been drafted but were not rated nearly as highly because they were 5 months less physically developed.

Tigers seem to like bottom agers.

Bolton
Dow
Ralphsmith

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

This was briefly discussed on the Fox broadcast. Basically by the time they’re in the AFL system, as a successful player, the split is something like ~55% born before July and ~45% born after July. Might be closer than that btw.

I heard this elsewhere and it was 53/47 I’m sure.

 

[THE_GUN]

Tigers seem to like bottom agers.

Bolton
Dow
Ralphsmith

Noah Balta was also bottom age draftee

 

[Tulip]

I came on here hoping to see more posters pumping up the Pies' draft haul... more please

Buckenara had Henry ranked at no. 5... and the highest of all sub 194cm players, and I'd love to see his reasoning. Didnt give anything away in his HS article.
Personally think Hollands looks an absolute ripper of the smaller players, along with campbell... whilst Phillips looks a safe bet.

Henry has class, but Bucky must see him moving into the midfield, unless he's regularly going to win games off his own boot

Wouldn't use Buckenara as a legit source. Bloke has absolutely no clue.

 

[Cleric]

Pretty happy with how Berry, Pedler and Thilthorpe have played so far for the Crows.

 

[Off Tap]

Very happy with McDonald and Grainger-Barass so far. Should be right to go 2023.