List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 2

[Bojangles17]

Old mate Sam Edmunds loosely linked him to us last year during trade period

“Quinton Narkle who we hear that he wants to move up and live around the Melbourne metropolitan area.
We know he’s good friends with Shai Bolton – and I’m not saying he’s going to Richmond – but he’s every chance that he should’ve played more football this year“

Sam Edmund's trade update on Witherden, Narkle, Crouch, Cameron and more

All the latest updates.

www.sen.com.au

That’s nothing more than a 2&2 grab

 

[lvt06]

You could get 10 top 10 picks and you'd have to cross your fingers to get a talent like Bolton. Can't believe people don't see that.

 

[Damo80]

You could get 10 top 10 picks and you'd have to cross your fingers to get a talent like Bolton. Can't believe people don't see that.

And then even after amassing all the top 10 picks, some campaigner club like Richmond snags Bolton with pick 29.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

 

[THE_GUN]

Points are mirage.
Picks 11 & 18=pick 3
But your not getting Dusty.
Your getting Lennon & RCD.

Can i have a Vlastuin & Balta ?

 

[Charlie Pannam]

You could get 10 top 10 picks and you'd have to cross your fingers to get a talent like Bolton. Can't believe people don't see that.

And while our premiership window is wide open, you want superstars like Bolton out there strutting his stuff.
You put Martin and Bolton (Jordan and Pippen ) in the same forwardline or midfield and opposition teams can’t stop that.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Points are mirage.
Picks 11 & 18=pick 3
But your not getting Dusty.
Your getting Lennon & RCD.

Or Jack Riewoldt(13) and Alex Rance(18.)

And potentially avoiding Paddy Dow, Jack Billings, Lochie Plowman, Dom Tyson, Chris Masten, Xavier Ellis, Colin Sylvia…..who all went pick 3…..



Richmond’s 1-10 picks since 2006

2 Cotchin 8 Vickery 3 Martin 6 Conca 9 Vlastuin. 9522 draft points.



Richmond’s 11-20 picks since 2006

13 Riewoldt 18 Rance 19 Griffiths 15 B Ellis 12 Lennon 12 C Ellis 15 D Rioli 17 Higgins 20 Coleman-Jones 20 Collier-Dawkins. 10754 draft points.



Let’s take it one step further to the 21-30 range since 2006

26 Edwards 26 Post 30 Batchelor 26 Elton 29 Bolton 25 Balta 21 Dow. 5103 draft points.



So in the 1-10 range we spend 9522 draft points and come up with Cotchin, Martin, Vlastuin of obvious high value, and Vickery and Conca of moderate value at best.

In the 11-20 range we spend 10754 draft points and come up with Riewoldt, Rance, of high value B Ellis, Rioli of good value and Higgins(converted into other draft picks,) Coleman-Jones and Collier-Dawkins of value yet to be determined but all show promise for us. Griffiths was of moderate value at best.

In the 21-30 range we spend a mere 5103 draft points and come up with Edwards, Bolton, Balta of obvious high value. Dow of as yet undetermined value but shows genuine promise. Batchelor was of some moderate value.

So considering all of that, would you really be confident that a given amount of draft points spent on top 10 picks would return better than a similar amount of points spent in the 11-30 range?

I am unconvinced.

 

[JR#8]

You could get 10 top 10 picks and you'd have to cross your fingers to get a talent like Bolton. Can't believe people don't see that.

It doesn't work. Just look at Carlton. No matter how many top 10 picks they've had...they still had no one nearly as good as Bolton.

 

[fargothegreat]

It doesn't work. Just look at Carlton. No matter how many top 10 picks they've had...they still had no one nearly as good as Bolton.

They amount of picks they've wasted ... Must be a development issue, surely?

 

[tiger_tough]

It doesn't work. Just look at Carlton. No matter how many top 10 picks they've had...they still had no one nearly as good as Bolton.

Harry Mckay? Walsh?

 

[archibald]

Our two firsts for Cerra is reasonable to me. Even better one of them and D. Rioli. Then tell Maurice his cousin was undermining him and had to go.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Im amazed with what we’ve been able to pick up in the draft the last 5 years. But it’s Near impossible to continually pick up players like Bolton in the late 20s.

The best players in the game the last 10-15 years and younger players that are now dominating:
Dusty pick 3
Buddy pick 5
Pendlebury pick 5
Selwood pick 7
Danger pick 10
Bont pick 4
Petracca pick 2
Oliver pick 4
The King brothers, Rowell, Walsh. Daicos this coming draft is apparently a standout

Of course there’s exceptions
Bolton pick 29
Fyfe pick 20
Gawn pick 34.

 

[lumpinee]

If this was shai's FA year I'd be a lot more worried, still not as confident as some but it just seems as though the set up would be sign a short deal of 2-3 years (admittedly for more money than would have been earlier), then reassess for a longer term deal when it will be a bit clearer whether we'll drop off.

with whispers around cerra, suddenly our young core looks pretty strong when you consider bolton, baker, balta, cerra (?), CCJ, RCD - guys that will be peaking together. All the more crucial to keep ccj/chol.

Gotta say though I think our cap will be buggered with as much money as we have going to dusty and lynch

Our two firsts for Cerra is reasonable to me. Even better one of them and D. Rioli. Then tell Maurice his cousin was undermining him and had to go.

one of them and castagna ?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Can i have a Vlastuin & Balta ?

Surprised you didn't go for the most obvious omission.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Or Jack Riewoldt(13) and Alex Rance(18.)

And potentially avoiding Paddy Dow, Jack Billings, Lochie Plowman, Dom Tyson, Chris Masten, Xavier Ellis, Colin Sylvia…..who all went pick 3…..



Richmond’s 1-10 picks since 2006

2 Cotchin 8 Vickery 3 Martin 6 Conca 9 Vlastuin. 9522 draft points.



Richmond’s 11-20 picks since 2006

13 Riewoldt 18 Rance 19 Griffiths 15 B Ellis 12 Lennon 12 C Ellis 15 D Rioli 17 Higgins 20 Coleman-Jones 20 Collier-Dawkins. 10754 draft points.



Let’s take it one step further to the 21-30 range since 2006

26 Edwards 26 Post 30 Batchelor 26 Elton 29 Bolton 25 Balta 21 Dow. 5103 draft points.



So in the 1-10 range we spend 9522 draft points and come up with Cotchin, Martin, Vlastuin of obvious high value, and Vickery and Conca of moderate value at best.

In the 11-20 range we spend 10754 draft points and come up with Riewoldt, Rance, of high value B Ellis, Rioli of good value and Higgins(converted into other draft picks,) Coleman-Jones and Collier-Dawkins of value yet to be determined but all show promise for us. Griffiths was of moderate value at best.

In the 21-30 range we spend a mere 5103 draft points and come up with Edwards, Bolton, Balta of obvious high value. Dow of as yet undetermined value but shows genuine promise. Batchelor was of some moderate value.

So considering all of that, would you really be confident that a given amount of draft points spent on top 10 picks would return better than a similar amount of points spent in the 11-30 range?

I am unconvinced.

You can throw all the numbers at me as you like.lol
Drafting isn't an exact science.
Part Planning/Development/Luck.
Ironically we could be the case study into how and why.
WTF did we turn Rookies into premiership players etc.lol
I just think with a top 5 pick.You'd get it more right than wrong.

 

[SleepingGiant]

I'm comparing them at the same age. Unfair to compare an almost veteran to an emerging player. I was indicating that the type of players they are was similar.

Pick 6 in this draft is much more superior to Cerra. A super draft can produce Judd type players. We need to trade into the top 10 and bank picks on a Chol or whoever wants to hold us ransom for money outside of Bolton who we need to keep. We want as many irons in this draft as possible and not try and top up to allow other clubs to rebuild. We need to rebuild while winning. If you want a big boy Cripps has shown more as a player than Cerra I don’t care if his form is down we will be a beast in our system. FA a gun mid never trade your draft picks in these drafts.

 

[SleepingGiant]

Reckon the club angles for either a 2 year deal so they get another crack at him the year before RFA or they go a longer term deal say 5-6 years to ensure we get him locked away for the prime years of his career and then give him the option of taking a free agency deal to return home the last few years of his career.

That deal was pick 6 and 2017 R2 for Prestia & pick 24, which along with 64 then became Caddy & 56.

So working on that our current R1 pick(11) and Suns R3(43) for Cerra would be the equivalent of giving up pick 7 based on points. I'd be happy with a deal like that as it means we still add 3 kids from the first 2 rounds this year and maintain our picks for next years draft.

Our current first round picks equate to pick 3 based on points, I'd only be giving that up for someone like Taranto.


Wasn't that long ago that this board would have been asking for 2 top 10 picks for some of our young players about to breakout.

Would you trade Judd for Taranto? That’s pick 3 in this draft. Absolutely no Cerra for me would rather a FA mid not use draft picks.

 

[Barunga Bullet]

Pick 6 in this draft is much more superior to Cerra. A super draft can produce Judd type players. We need to trade into the top 10 and bank picks on a Chol or whoever wants to hold us ransom for money outside of Bolton who we need to keep. We want as many irons in this draft as possible and not try and top up to allow other clubs to rebuild. We need to rebuild while winning. If you want a big boy Cripps has shown more as a player than Cerra I don’t care if his form is down we will be a beast in our system. FA a gun mid never trade your draft picks in these drafts.

Everyone draft is a superdraft though. Last year's and even this years are the ones where you are more likely to strike gold later in the draft due to the lack of footy thats been played, especially in vic

 

[SplintWhisky]

Everyone draft is a superdraft though. Last year's and even this years are the ones where you are more likely to strike gold later in the draft due to the lack of footy thats been played, especially in vic

Totally agree. The last year and this years draft are where the Recruiting staff earn their wage. These drafts are the ones that could break struggling teams because of the relatively unknown factors going in to the seasons. I think it would be worth taking a look at how some of last years undrafted players are going in state leagues because there could be a lot of gems that went undrafted because they had a s**t u17 year and never got to show their skills at u18 level.

 

[fargothegreat]

Pick 6 in this draft is much more superior to Cerra. A super draft can produce Judd type players. We need to trade into the top 10 and bank picks on a Chol or whoever wants to hold us ransom for money outside of Bolton who we need to keep. We want as many irons in this draft as possible and not try and top up to allow other clubs to rebuild. We need to rebuild while winning. If you want a big boy Cripps has shown more as a player than Cerra I don’t care if his form is down we will be a beast in our system. FA a gun mid never trade your draft picks in these drafts.

Who's saying it's a super draft? Everything I've heard is that it's pretty similar to last year, and we didn't rate last year's draft at all.

 

[cairo tiger]

You could get 10 top 10 picks and you'd have to cross your fingers to get a talent like Bolton. Can't believe people don't see that.

nail on head right there mate. Bang.

 

[cairo tiger]

Our two firsts for Cerra is reasonable to me. Even better one of them and D. Rioli. Then tell Maurice his cousin was undermining him and had to go.

I dont agree. no way he is worth 2. Maybe one and an egg.

 

[_RT_]

Would you trade Judd for Taranto? That’s pick 3 in this draft. Absolutely no Cerra for me would rather a FA mid not use draft picks.

There is no Judd Martin Ablett Jr type of players in this draft, if there was the media would be balls deep in terms of hyping them up but they aren't.

As was posted above for every gun taken with a top 5 pick you can write another list players taken at the same pick who didn't make it.

Using your example would you pass on trading for Taranto with 2 first round picks to trade up to pick to pick Tambling?

 

[Morro]

There is no Judd Martin Ablett Jr type of players in this draft, if there was the media would be balls deep in terms of hyping them up but they aren't.

As was posted above for every gun taken with a top 5 pick you can write another list players taken at the same pick who didn't make it.

Using your example would you pass on trading for Taranto with 2 first round picks to trade up to pick to pick Tambling?

There is, but the pies get him

 

[poppa pump]

Tigers versus Essendon for exciting Bendigo pioneers Nyami Moore.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You can throw all the numbers at me as you like.lol
Drafting isn't an exact science.
Part Planning/Development/Luck.
Ironically we could be the case study into how and why.
WTF did we turn Rookies into premiership players etc.lol
I just think with a top 5 pick.You'd get it more right than wrong.

Im amazed with what we’ve been able to pick up in the draft the last 5 years. But it’s Near impossible to continually pick up players like Bolton in the late 20s.

The best players in the game the last 10-15 years and younger players that are now dominating:
Dusty pick 3
Buddy pick 5
Pendlebury pick 5
Selwood pick 7
Danger pick 10
Bont pick 4
Petracca pick 2
Oliver pick 4
The King brothers, Rowell, Walsh. Daicos this coming draft is apparently a standout

Of course there’s exceptions
Bolton pick 29
Fyfe pick 20
Gawn pick 34.

Eagles won a flag in 2018 without one of those “best players in the last 10-15 years” you listed. Charlie Pannam

Bulldogs had Bontempelli in 2016 but he did not have anywhere near that status in his 3rd season in the AFL, as good as he was.

Hawks had none of them in 2014-15.

Swans had none in 2012.

So it is not compulsory to winning a flag to have one or more of these players in your team, far from it.

Also, if you looked right now at AFL player ratings, I think 9 of the top 20 players at present were top 10 picks. 10 of the top 20 midfielders were essentially top 10 picks.

3 of the top 20 key defenders were top 10 picks.

3 of the top 20 general defenders were top 10 picks.

3 of the top 20 ranked general forwards were top 10 picks.

6 0r 7 of the top 20 ranked key forwards were top 10 picks - depending how you view Hawkins.

1 of the top 20 ranked rucks was a top 10 pick.

If I was ranking a Meteoric Rise top 22 most important players in the competition right now without putting too much thought into it, it might be something like this:

7 defenders
Grimes Andrews Weitering
Stewart Hind Daniel
Whitfield

3 wingers
Amon, Smith, A Brayshaw

4 inside mids
Bontempelli Neale Petracca Martin

7 forwards
J Cameron C Cameron Bolton
Stringer Naughton McKay
Papley

Ruck: Gawn

I am sure I could come up with a better team but that would be a reasonable representation of how I rate players at their best right now. I think only 9 of my best 22 there were essentially top 10 picks. I have tried to pick a balanced team rather than just the best 22 players I could find.


So you know, when you say there are exceptions, there are 13 exceptions in my casually selected AFL best current 22.

So I remain open minded as to whether you are better off taking the same amount of draft points inside or outside the top 10. There are approximately 19,500 draft points tied up in the top 10 picks. There are around 30,000 draft points outside the top 10.

So if the top 10 picks were significantly more valuable than their points indicate, we might expect to see more than 40% of the best players in the game coming from top 10 picks. I am not sure top 10 picks are over-represented in relation to draft points at all, let alone to a highly significant extent.