FTA-TV Australian Survivor - Heroes vs Villains (Jan 2023)

[Kirby]

Look, at least the early odds are usually BS and a suck in by the betting agencies.

Still, obviously they have no place in the thread.

 

[Ry009]

Hoping for a Nina immunity win tonight to force a bit of action from the majority, but also will laugh if Gerry ends up getting voted out by George after last night. His bitterness level may be through the roof!

George will go Matt well before Gerry. Both out of being solid, and Matt being an immunity threat (which everyone is against George anyway)

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Are these people ever going to make a move against George? This is getting so boring and predictable now as none of George's pawns want to ever make a move. I continue to dislike Gerry more and more as he opens his mouth with the condescending crap.

Yeah the edit last night about Gerry going on and on about him treating people the same way he is treating them, but if they do wrong by him, then they will pay was painful.

So he talks up his morals and loyalty, gets told he was the split vote and he would have been gone if an idol was played.

Then his about face about being called a pawn and his defense of his pawn game just reeked of hypocrisy.

I get Simon is a challenge threat, but eliminating Simon under Georges plan isnt the gameplay that puts their names on the map for the jury. Making their own moves is what is needed...Simon has been telling them for a few days now, but clearly the truth hurts more than missing out on half a mil.

I mean Gerry heard last night there was a second final 3 alliance george made with Liz and Nina, yet still decides his best course of action is to do nothing...

 

[TheDudeAbides]

George will go Matt well before Gerry. Both out of being solid, and Matt being an immunity threat (which everyone is against George anyway)

There must be some big conversations George is having with them both that we arent seeing.

George has now burned both Matt and Gerry at tribal council within a few days of each other. Its been pointed out to them buy other players, they entertain a vote on George at the time but end up jumping back under Georges thumb.

 

[Ry009]

My order of boot now would be

-Nina
-Whoever doesn't win immunity out of Liz or Matt.
-Whoever doesn't win immunity out of George or previous immunity winner of Liz/Matt

To me, it has to be Liz or Matt that make it through vs Gerry. If George can pull a few immunities out of his arse then he's got it in the bag.

Love him, one of our best strategic players, but he can't be called a great if he doesn't win an important immunity.

I think George hanging around at this point is more about them all backing themselves to beat him, which is fair.

Personally think Simon and Nina especially are escaping a bit of criticism here. Should have forced a 2-2-2 and pleaded hard. They went the safe option like most before them.

I've been critical of Hayley and she played dumb, but at least she had a crack at the pointy end of the game.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Personally think Simon and Nina especially are escaping a bit of criticism here. Should have forced a 2-2-2 and pleaded hard. They went the safe option like most before them.

Simon cooked all that when he took JLP's bait to call out Liz, Gerry and Matt as George's pawns during tribal. Even though he was spot on the money about all three of them, Simon would have done well to remember that Gerry in particular has taken significant offence to that (based on the reaction Gerry had when Simon first raised this back at camp), even though Simon's comments had been living rent-free in Matt's head since he first raised it. Nina knew that her only chance of surviving was to switch from voting George to voting Simon, because Gerry made it clear that he was firmly back in George's pocket.

It's also worth noting that Gerry was the only one still on the tribe that doesn't know that George has $60,000 in his pocket thanks to the auction reward. He wasn't part of the initial discussion when Hayley spilled it to Nina, Matt and Simon, and as far as we've seen, nobody else has told him afterwards. Whether Gerry changes his opinion if he knew that George has already won a prize on the TV show, who knows, but Simon cooked his own game badly at tribal last night.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I mean Gerry heard last night there was a second final 3 alliance george made with Liz and Nina, yet still decides his best course of action is to do nothing...

Because, quite frankly, it is the best course of action, and everything else is just window dressing.

Matt and Gerry have had a long-standing deal to go to final tribal together, and they're using George as a shield. Simon was just a few seconds away from winning immunity over Matt, which would have changed the calculations completely, so ousting Simon is good for Matt's game because it removes an immunity challenge threat. By extension, it's also good for Gerry's game. George has shown no capacity to win an immunity challenge, and it's typically the case that the final immunity challenge is an endurance-based one, which George struggles with at the best of times.

For Matt and Gerry, the next logical vote-out is Nina. It weakens the alternative final three alliance of Liz, George and Nina, but keeps Liz and George close to Matt and Gerry.

Once they're done to final four, they'll toss out Liz, then George, Gerry and Matt go to final three, whereupon they're counting on Matt to win the last immunity challenge and take Gerry to the final tribal council.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

There must be some big conversations George is having with them both that we arent seeing.

George has now burned both Matt and Gerry at tribal council within a few days of each other. Its been pointed out to them buy other players, they entertain a vote on George at the time but end up jumping back under Georges thumb.

Seen it elsewhere on social media that Hayley has said that George has been careful to talk up Gerry's game wherever he could. It hasn't been shown on screen, apparently, but that's why Gerry was so quick to defend George in the tribal broadcast last night, because George has done a great job stroking Gerry's ego.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

So did Simon and Nina vote for each other?

Result would have been the same, but couldn't they have forced a 2-2-2 split? Seems worth the risk to me.

That's been the tale of this season that those on the bottom play for self preservation and they eventually get booted. Could be wrong but if that's the case they deserve more flak than the pawns IMO.

Nina's plan was to vote George, and thought she could get Simon and Gerry to vote with her. Would have sent George packing.

But then Simon cooked all that when he called out Gerry, Matt and Liz, and Gerry decided to flip straight back to George's pocket. She knew that her original plan was dead in the water. She already knew that she'd get two votes, and Simon would get two votes (George and Matt already made this clear to her when they discussed the plans at the tribal with Gerry when they were in isolation). She assumed that Simon would write her name down, so her only chance of survival was to vote Simon. So she switched to vote Simon (she told him as such just before the second lot of votes were read out by JLP).

 

[darrenmorgan]

Matt and Gerry have had a long-standing deal to go to final tribal together, and they're using George as a shield.

I reckon they'll make it too; that's why they showed us them having that discussion way back early in the season when it seemed completley fanciful that they'd be the final two.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Yeah the edit last night about Gerry going on and on about him treating people the same way he is treating them, but if they do wrong by him, then they will pay was painful.

So he talks up his morals and loyalty, gets told he was the split vote and he would have been gone if an idol was played.

Then his about face about being called a pawn and his defense of his pawn game just reeked of hypocrisy.

I get Simon is a challenge threat, but eliminating Simon under Georges plan isnt the gameplay that puts their names on the map for the jury. Making their own moves is what is needed...Simon has been telling them for a few days now, but clearly the truth hurts more than missing out on half a mil.

I mean Gerry heard last night there was a second final 3 alliance george made with Liz and Nina, yet still decides his best course of action is to do nothing...

Gerry’s defence was laughable in hindsight. He more or less admitted to being a pawn if we’re being honest - sure learn from George, but what exactly have you done with said knowledge? Absolutely nothing, you’ve just let him take you along for the ride.

That said if he’d made the move after that speech it was genuinely game winning type stuff, and this is the biggest pawn in the game we are talking about.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Gerry’s defence was laughable in hindsight. He more or less admitted to being a pawn if we’re being honest - sure learn from George, but what exactly have you done with said knowledge? Absolutely nothing, you’ve just let him take you along for the ride.

That said if he’d made the move after that speech it was genuinely game winning type stuff, and this is the biggest pawn in the game we are talking about.

If he made a move and voted George after the speech it would have been hilarious because he would have been the only one voting for George after spooking Simon and Nina from said speech.

 

[Macca19]

Gerry and Matt are doing the right thing. I cant see George looking to vote either out before final 3 so they are safe there. Whilst theyve both ridden Georges coattails to the end, its worked and they could very very easily be the final 2

 

[JT_the_Man]

If he made a move and voted George after the speech it would have been hilarious because he would have been the only one voting for George after spooking Simon and Nina from said speech.

Would’ve needed to have had a conversation about it beforehand.

 

[Frank Grimes]

I know Gerry gets a lot of flak for being a pawn and not doing much. However, I wonder if Gerry is smarter than we give him credit for?

Look at from his perspective. He has the same problem as George. They are both not very good at challanges. If he is up against a combination of anyone else apart from George in the final challenge he knows he's very likely to lose.

From his perspective the only real chance he has is if he is in the final challenge with George and hope George fails. In this respect George and Gerry both need each other in the final challenge because they both know against anyone else they are unlikely to make it to final tribal council.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Because, quite frankly, it is the best course of action, and everything else is just window dressing.

Matt and Gerry have had a long-standing deal to go to final tribal together, and they're using George as a shield. Simon was just a few seconds away from winning immunity over Matt, which would have changed the calculations completely, so ousting Simon is good for Matt's game because it removes an immunity challenge threat. By extension, it's also good for Gerry's game. George has shown no capacity to win an immunity challenge, and it's typically the case that the final immunity challenge is an endurance-based one, which George struggles with at the best of times.

For Matt and Gerry, the next logical vote-out is Nina. It weakens the alternative final three alliance of Liz, George and Nina, but keeps Liz and George close to Matt and Gerry.

Once they're done to final four, they'll toss out Liz, then George, Gerry and Matt go to final three, whereupon they're counting on Matt to win the last immunity challenge and take Gerry to the final tribal council.

What I am saying is neither Matt nor Jerry can lay claim to any moves so far to sell to the Jury at final 2, no matter who they are against. Against each other in a final 2, they effectively have the same game. Gerry has the move that he found Georges coat tails when he got voted out of the OG Heroes. Matts point of difference is he has won a couple of post merge immunities.

Seen it elsewhere on social media that Hayley has said that George has been careful to talk up Gerry's game wherever he could. It hasn't been shown on screen, apparently, but that's why Gerry was so quick to defend George in the tribal broadcast last night, because George has done a great job stroking Gerry's ego.

Thanks for the info, I wasnt aware. To not be shown in what has gone to air, then it must not be important or pivotal information being relied upon at final tribal council should Gerry make it.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Gerry and Matt are doing the right thing. I cant see George looking to vote either out before final 3 so they are safe there. Whilst theyve both ridden Georges coattails to the end, its worked and they could very very easily be the final 2

Matt will be next to go after Nina as he is a challenge threat and it breaks up Matt and Gerry as a duo.

I think George feels comfortable with Liz and Gerry as his final 3.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Matt's not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed either. He has to realise this is his best and possibly only chance to get rid of George.

this is a dumb analysis.

George will not beat Matt in a challenge. Matt’s way to the end is to pop out from behind George at the end and win the final challenge and bring jerry.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Simon cooked all that when he took JLP's bait to call out Liz, Gerry and Matt as George's pawns during tribal. Even though he was spot on the money about all three of them, Simon would have done well to remember that Gerry in particular has taken significant offence to that (based on the reaction Gerry had when Simon first raised this back at camp), even though Simon's comments had been living rent-free in Matt's head since he first raised it. Nina knew that her only chance of surviving was to switch from voting George to voting Simon, because Gerry made it clear that he was firmly back in George's pocket.

It's also worth noting that Gerry was the only one still on the tribe that doesn't know that George has $60,000 in his pocket thanks to the auction reward. He wasn't part of the initial discussion when Hayley spilled it to Nina, Matt and Simon, and as far as we've seen, nobody else has told him afterwards. Whether Gerry changes his opinion if he knew that George has already won a prize on the TV show, who knows, but Simon cooked his own game badly at tribal last night.

no one cares about the $60k

 

[Dixie Flatline]

no one cares about the $60k

Yeah they do. It's often used as a reason not to give the grand prize to someone if they have already won something during the competition.

 

[SnakeMan86]

I'd actually laugh if Gerry was against George in a final. How would you convince a jury to give Gerry the win, when he pretty much acknowledged that he learns everything from George.
Risky game assuming you'd beat george in the final immunity... Sure he's proven he is no good, but you never know what the challenge is

 

[kirky]

I reckon they'll make it too; that's why they showed us them having that discussion way back early in the season when it seemed completley fanciful that they'd be the final two.

Reminds me when Pia said on the first episode of her Survivor season she was going to win Survivor and she did.

And reckon there are significant discussions between Gerry and Matt which haven’t been disclosed along the way in the edit.

Simon should have called out Gerry re : his speech on George being a mentor - do you want a mentor to do deals with multiple groups, do you want a mentor to lie to you, do you want a mentor to be a political strategist who knows how to manipulate people coz that is what he did for his bread and butter.

George isn’t a mentor, we don’t want those types in business, sport or any walk of life.

 

[Frank Grimes]

I'd actually laugh if Gerry was against George in a final. How would you convince a jury to give Gerry the win, when he pretty much acknowledged that he learns everything from George.
Risky game assuming you'd beat george in the final immunity... Sure he's proven he is no good, but you never know what the challenge is

Apart from George who do you see Gerry a reasonable chance against regardless the type of challenge?

Against George I'd give him a 50/50 chance. Against Nina or Liz about a 20-25% chance. Against Matt next to no chance.

I'd say it's riskier to face off the others in the final challenge than George imo. No point of worrying about final tribal if you don't/can't get past the final challenge.

I think he will have a reasonable chance against Matt and Liz in the final tribal council at this point and a possible chance against Nina if he can articulate himself well enough.

However as far as the tactic of the others are concerned, it is in their best interest to get rid of George as a priority even before the final challenge.

 

[Ulahoopski]

It's still going? George is STILL there? Please, Satan, let it end.

 

[Farang83150]

Wonder if the old dog 'learned from the master' and pulled a all time performance out of his arse and is going to blindside him.

That's what I was hoping, could've saved his game big time if he'd had the balls to do it.

 

[Ochre]

Is this the weakest/most boring season of Survivor ever? It gets my vote. Not one of them deserves to win. Not even George because if he had intelligent players around him he would have gone long ago.

Just out of interest, what are the best seasons in your opinion?