Autopsy AFL 2023 Grand Final - Pies vs Lions Sat Sept 30th 2:30pm EST (MCG)

[Algorithmic Hot Takes]

Biggest ever comeback in a grand final at 3/4 is 24 points in 1984. They’d want to be a bit closer I’d reckon.

Maybe, but it's all mental. They'll both be knackered at that stage with the heat, in this scenario.
The crowd starts "Coooollingwoood, Coooollingwoood", get a quick goal or two, and tired Lions could try and save it, which won't end well if 20 points up with 15 minutes to go...

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Lions
17 points
Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

99,987

 

[Feerits Elf]

Ah yes, who could forget the Lions' historic 2004 premiership as they vanquished the still flagless Port Adelaide to secure their four-peat.

Good work ABC

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Just out of interest, do you think the pies will win tomorrow?

Definitely can win, no excuses if we don't

But I think it's around 48/52 rather than 50/50, the Lions really should be favourites

 

[Corn Cobbers]

But against my better judgement:

Pies by 1 point
Cox 1st goal
Quaynor N Smith
100,034

 

[Billy ray]

Draw and then Pies after ET
First goal Daniher
Norm Neale
100,019

Wowee count from BT :34
Oh no count from JB: 12

 

[Cleavy]

View attachment 1817097

Ah yes, who could forget the Lions' historic 2004 premiership as they vanquished the still flagless Port Adelaide to secure their four-peat.

Good work ABC

ABC fact checkers are busy.

 

[Feerits Elf]

ABC fact checkers are busy.

* Misleading

 

[Cyclops]

Maybe I am alone in thinking this, but for all the talk of corporate tickets at grand finals, i feel as though from crowd noise more and more fans of the competing teams have been finding a way to get in to the game. Whether it be the advent of sharing barcodes, being able to transfer money electronically more easily, maybe more actual fans of each side with enough money to spend... it just seems like the noise is a lot bigger and those grand final lulls have decreased?

I think it will mean the pies have a pretty good hold on the crowd tomorrow, maybe 65/35? Can make a difference. We almost seemed shocked by the carlton noise at the gabba amongst everything else

I do think the pies would be mistaken if they try to only strangle the lions. I don't think they will given McRae spoke about the pies being 'stodgy' against the giants. Yes they will try to limit the lions but winning by kicking 8 to 9 goals is tough. The pies kicked 100 points against the lions in round 23 without hill, de goey and daicos. we can be opened up.

Fair point about the flow of tickets, always been a lively trade, and now it seems to flow like water.

Lions the most skilled side this year and I cannot see us winning a straight shoot out (although De Goey and Neale breaking clean out of the centre is a beautiful sight.

Have to agree about stodge, I don't see us strangling the Lions for long stretches as we did Melbourne and Giants.

I guess we're hoping to disrupt and win some ball straight down the centre. The rucks will be key, I guess thats why we picked 3. Joey and Hipwood to back up Mcinerney? Its Cox/Cameron for us with Frammo to pitch in. So many cracking match ups to play out.

 

[Chinacats]

It’s 28 degrees, anyone would think they are playing in the mid 40’s up the top end.

All these players are professional athletes who do their preseasons over summer and train almost year round, this kind of heat will zero impact on the result.

Yes some said the same in 2015 that the heat will favour west coast against hawthorn …. Nothing!

 

[JasRulz63]

I guess we're hoping to disrupt and win some ball straight down the centre. The rucks will be key, I guess thats why we picked 3. Joey and Hipwood to back up Mcinerney? Its Cox/Cameron for us with Frammo to pitch in. So many cracking match ups to play out.

It's usually just Daniher backing up McInerney. Daniher's pretty uncompetitive in the ruck contest, but he's quite good for his size once the ball hits the ground. Him playing second ruck has been important to his turnaround in form after that Dogs came he copped criticism for.

 

[Chief]

View attachment 1817097

Ah yes, who could forget the Lions' historic 2004 premiership as they vanquished the still flagless Port Adelaide to secure their four-peat.

Good work ABC

Looks like they meant "grand final appearance".

 

[Fitzey]

Pies fans booing Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

it really is dumb vs dumber in this years decider

 

[Pancakes]

Definitely a bit warm outside, and a touch warmer tomorrow.
Both teams will feel it in the last quarter, but probably the Pies a bit more.
If Pies lead by 15-20 at 3/4 time i reckon we will be in for a ripper finish.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Pies fans booing Lachie Neale it really is dumb vs dumber in this years decider

That's awesome

BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

How dare you accept that Brownlow!!!

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Magpies by 29 pts

Norm Smith Medalist - have they got a number 8 - famous number their at Coll - so if they have got a no 8 playing - then he will win it

 

[Feerits Elf]

Looks like they meant "grand final appearance".

Ah, so the author meant "If the Lions win, it will be their first grand final appearance since 2004, while for the Pies, the first grand final appearance since 2010".

Checks out.

 

[aj1992]

That's awesome

BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

How dare you accept that Brownlow!!!

Ahhh just like Buckley and his Norn Smith.

 

[Daniel_Rich]

Already setting up a narrative before the game starts. Victim mentality is strong.

Have fun with the umpire watch on BF, should be really fun day.

They were literally responding to a Pies fan claiming that the Lions "had the four umpires". Something something victim mentality!

 

[Greenstar5]

Think Pies by a few goals. Because it's at the G.

Just hoping for a good game.

Unlike the stuff South Melbourne served up last year.

 

[Osho]

Weather matters. Very much. Humidity not just temp. Perspiration levels, fatigue, familiarity. Ameriolation can also make a difference, clubs will be onto this obviously, but still, the human meat machine must make adjustments to maintain homeostasis, and these adjustments will have flow on effects.

Does anyone remember 1987 GF? 30. something degrees. I ended up in emergency that evening with extreme facial sunburn and dehydration from watching the game on the telly in my front yard. Admittedly, I contributed significantly to my condition by getting completely plastered before quarter time.

What a bloody dill.

I reckon on balance Pies heat will be more important to the result. I expect that to be (black and) white hot.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Ahhh just like Buckley and his Norn Smith.

Couldn't agree more!! Voss was BOG

Bucks took it straight off from memory

 

[Didak Wine]

None of it means anything in the end. In 2010, we were champs and I headed into the city mu brother was plastered, we were yelling screaming singing. In the spaces between, the empty moments, the abyss is there waiting for you.

 

[Proud New Father of 3]

Wild to me that the round 23 game seems to be referenced as a plus for Brisbane, when they won by 4 goals, but the Pies had no De Goey, Moore, Nick Daicos or Bobby Hill. Four of the sixish most influential players at the Pies.

Surprised that isn't getting mentioned...

 

[Didak Wine]

Wild to me that the round 23 game seems to be referenced as a plus for Brisbane, when they won by 4 goals, but the Pies had no De Goey, Moore, Nick Daicos or Bobby Hill. Four of the sixish most influential players at the Pies.

Surprised that isn't getting mentioned...

Congrats on the newborn. Let hem rave on so men may know them mad.

 

[Drought Break]

You’re seriously calling out umpiring as a Pies fan?

Tomorrow’s game has the potential to be the most biased umpiring in a GF since the Bulldogs were gifted the cup in 2016, and it won’t be towards the Lions mate

hopefully we don't get a repeat of that ridiculous one sided umpiring of last week where the free count Pies/GWS was about 12 all. Toby Green should have got a free for ducking in that tackle. Ginnivan gets them every time.