Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[ThatsjustDappa]

Yep. According to reddit (as I don't remember the details) but according to people at the time he had a lackluster 15 or so rounds in 2019 and suddenly came really good in the final 1/3rd of the season, but that is not enough to make the AA team as the first 2/3rds of the season matter too.

Dusty certainly faded in parts of some H&A seasons, his performance was more VFL like than GOAT like....

 

[doppleganger]

Well I will ask you a random question. How many decent finals did Tony Shaw and Peter Daicos played?

Both of their careers lasted a long time from as far back as 1979 to 1994.

1990 would of been the best as Magpies won the flag.

Magpies played in grand finals from 1979-81 as well

Daicos was another scoreboard impact mid/forward player.

Daicos kicked 39 goals from his 19 finals, Daicos had more scoreboard impact in finals than Dusty.

Unlike Dusty he didn't play all his good finals in a quick burst, and was quiet in GFs.

Daicos played 8 great finals (an avg of 19d and 3.9 goals across his top 8 finals, Dusty compete with that??)

81 QF 17d, 4 goals
81 SF 18d, 3 goals
81 PF 14d, 4 goals
84 SF 20d, 7 goals
88 QF 32d, 2 goals
90 QF(D) 18d, 4 goals
90 QF, 14d 4 goals
90 SF, 18d, 3 goals

 

[Cdog71]

150+ votes is a hell of a lot more quantitative than your "trust me I surveyed a bunch of youngsters" joke.

And every thread like this, all the neutrals pour in one direction. Did you ever notice that?

148 votes
Unnecessary over reach.
I got no problem with GAJ being better 1 mtr from the ball all game to Dusty or anyone.
I do think GC setup there entire Football program and game around him where he was the only “licensed playmaker” as you’ve alluded to in the past.
Which obviously didn’t bring much success or indeed build and develop talent in the phase of the game that Ablett wanted to play in.
Our sport there’s a 22 game tournament that establishes the finals series, which in turn establishes the matchup for the Premiership, which establishes the Champion team of that year.
NBA there’s 83 games, then play offs then for the Championship.
English Premier league 38 games (without a finals series or championship play off), the World Cup is a better example.
I could go on about Tennis which is sudden death in every match or the Olympics which is a tournament once every four years.
The point is the greatest athlete’s preform and produce when it counts. They won’t be denied and they absorb the pressure and reach a level they couldn’t have done otherwise unless in that situation.
The greatest NBA players are determined by there performance in Championships and Playoffs, same as all other sports.
The premise of the H/A season is to establish the premiership team not the AA’s or BnF winners.
Ablett didn’t play one final in his time at GC and for all his time there it seems the club received a net gain of zero.
He did win more individual accolades though didn’t have to share votes with others.
It just didn’t seem to help his team very much whereas Dusty’s best,
it created a dynasty.

 

[Cdog71]

Daicos was another scoreboard impact mid/forward player.

Daicos kicked 39 goals from his 19 finals, Daicos had more scoreboard impact in finals than Dusty.

Unlike Dusty he didn't play all his good finals in a quick burst, and was quiet in GFs.

Daicos played 8 great finals (an avg of 19d and 3.9 goals across his top 8 finals, Dusty compete with that??)

81 QF 17d, 4 goals
81 SF 18d, 3 goals
81 PF 14d, 4 goals
84 SF 20d, 7 goals
88 QF 32d, 2 goals
90 QF(D) 18d, 4 goals
90 QF, 14d 4 goals
90 SF, 18d, 3 goals

The other thing about Daicos I think, is how good at teaching he must be to be able to help develop his kids.
I don’t know how old this but well before social media and the personal coaching enterprises that’s seem to be everywhere now.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Daicos was another scoreboard impact mid/forward player.

Daicos kicked 39 goals from his 19 finals, Daicos had more scoreboard impact in finals than Dusty.

Unlike Dusty he didn't play all his good finals in a quick burst, and was quiet in GFs.

Daicos played 8 great finals (an avg of 19d and 3.9 goals across his top 8 finals, Dusty compete with that??)

81 QF 17d, 4 goals
81 SF 18d, 3 goals
81 PF 14d, 4 goals
84 SF 20d, 7 goals
88 QF 32d, 2 goals
90 QF(D) 18d, 4 goals
90 QF, 14d 4 goals
90 SF, 18d, 3 goals

In the finals Daicos played in over 29 goals were scored on average. Daicos averaged 2 goals per final. Daicos scored just under 7% of the goals scored in all the finals he played.

The finals Dusty played in 23 goals were scord on average. Dusty scored over 7% of the goals scored in all finals in which he played.

This if course is to say nothing of the following facts:

• Dusty averaged 22 disposals per final, Daicos averaged 16.
• Dusty averaged over 1 goal assist per final, Daicos barely ever had a goal assist in his career.
• Their respective Grand Final records. Dusty averaged 3.6 goals per full length Grand Final - 16% of all goals scored in those games. Daicos scored 4% of the goals scored in his 3 GF's, 3 goals in all.
• Dusty was best player in a finals series on 3 separate occasions. Daicos did not achieve this once.
• Dusty won 3 Norm Smith Medals from his 3 Grand Final appearances, obtaining 43 of maximum possible 45 votes. Daicos got zero Norm Smith Medal votes from his 3 Grand Finals.

Fuming Pies fans seem to want to put their best players finals records up against Dusty's for some unknowable reason. He has everyone in history kicked into a cocked hat for finals performance.

 

[Xtreme]

Just posting this again

It's a Bigfooty poll that can easily be rigged. Wouldn't trust it as far as I could pick up and throw Novak Djokovic!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It's a Bigfooty poll that can easily be rigged. Wouldn't trust it as far as I could pick up and throw Novak Djokovic!

And if we changed the question to who is the best mid-forward of the 21st century we would get a very different answer(one would hope.)

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The claim that a player like Pendlebury is better than Dusty due to AA selections is shown to hold no value by simple reference to 2019, where Dusty finished the season as the universally recognised most valuable player in the AFL, got more Brownlow & Coaches votes than Pendlebury, and a significantly higher average player rating than Pendlebury after both the home & away season, and finals. Dusty then won the Gary Ayres Medal for best player in the finals series & the Norm Smith Medal for best player in the Grand Final.

So Pendlebury having 6 AA selections v Dusty 4 is clearly not evidence that Pendlebury is a better or more valuable player, given one of Pendlebury's selections was in a season where Dusty was demonstrably a way more valuable player, in fact the most valuable player in the game. If you simply corrected that it would be 5 each and Dusty's way superior finals record elevates him head & shoulders above Pendlebury.

 

[doppleganger]

In the finals..

You love player ratings and impact MR.

Player 1 avg 23d and 2.7 goals in his best 9 finals

Player 2 avg 19d and 3.9 goals across his best 8 finals.

Tiger fans normally love scoreboard impact, so would expect you to agree that Player 2 has an impressive peak finals record.

 

[Xtreme]

And if we changed the question to who is the best mid-forward of the 21st century we would get a very different answer(one would hope.)

Jason Akermanis!!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You love player ratings and impact MR.

Player 1 avg 23d and 2.7 goals in his best 9 finals

Player 2 avg 19d and 3.9 goals across his best 8 finals.

Tiger fans normally love scoreboard impact, so would expect you to agree that Player 2 has an impressive peak finals record.

It is likely but you have to view those performances in the context of the games, and also consider the totality of the player's performance, not just his goals & disposals.

Dusty's AVERAGE player rating across all 16 of his finals, good bad & indifferent is above 19.34. This is above the average rating of the top rated player in the AFL in most seasons. There is nobody even vaguely close to that average player rating in finals.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Someone seriously needs to reevaluate their life.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Someone seriously needs to reevaluate their life.

It looks like the person with 80,954 posts is back to let us know we need to re-evaluate our lives.

 

[doppleganger]

The claim that a player like Pendlebury is better than Dusty due to AA selections is shown to hold no value by simple reference to 2019, where Dusty finished the season as the universally recognised most valuable player in the AFL, got more Brownlow & Coaches votes than Pendlebury, and a significantly higher average player rating than Pendlebury after both the home & away season, and finals. Dusty then won the Gary Ayres Medal for best player in the finals series & the Norm Smith Medal for best player in the Grand Final.

So Pendlebury having 6 AA selections v Dusty 4 is clearly not evidence that Pendlebury is a better or more valuable player, given one of Pendlebury's selections was in a season where Dusty was demonstrably a way more valuable player, in fact the most valuable player in the game. If you simply corrected that it would be 5 each and Dusty's way superior finals record elevates him head & shoulders above Pendlebury.

Only issue MR is if doing your retro analysis you would have to give Pendles a couple more AAs based your beloved player ratings.

Excluding players who played less than 10 games

2015 Pendles had 6th best player ratings avg
2016 Pendles had 4th best player ratings avg
2017 Pendles had 6th best player ratings avg

Pendles was top 6 from for 5 consecutive seasons 2013-17 (but only jagged 2 AAs).

Dusty only had 4 seasons where he was top 6 in avg player ratings (aligning with AAs). He just wasn't that good outside the 4 year Richmond peak.

2016 Pendles had player ratings avg of 17.5 be 4th best, Dusty only had 13.4 outside top40 players...yet Dusty got an AA

So drop Dusty's 2016 AA and give it to Pendles, and probably also give Pendles an extra for 2015.

7 AAs to Pendles and Dusty remains on 4 if doing an MR player ratings retrospective AA adjustment review!

 

[RUNVS]

Only issue MR is if doing your retro analysis you would have to give Pendles a couple more AAs based your beloved player ratings.

Excluding players who played less than 10 games

2015 Pendles had 6th best player ratings avg
2016 Pendles had 4th best player ratings avg
2017 Pendles had 6th best player ratings avg

Pendles was top 6 from for 5 consecutive seasons 2013-17 (but only jagged 2 AAs).

Dusty only had 4 seasons where he was top 6 in avg player ratings (aligning with AAs). He just wasn't that good outside the 4 year Richmond peak.

2016 Pendles had player ratings avg of 17.5 be 4th best, Dusty only had 13.4 outside top40 players...yet Dusty got an AA

So drop Dusty's 2016 AA and give it to Pendles, and probably also give Pendles an extra for 2015.

7 AAs to Pendles and Dusty remains on 4 if doing an MR player ratings retrospective AA adjustment review!

Not sure how much I trust player ratings either. I don't know what their methodology is or how they differentiate between positions.

 

[doppleganger]

Not sure how much I trust player ratings either. I don't know what their methodology is or how they differentiate between positions.

MR swears by em.

Only problem for poor MR is even they show Dusty only had 4 real good seasons, where he avg above 16.

2 BnFs and 4 top level seasons (2017 one out of the box) is what Dusty produced.

Solid effort no doubt.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

It looks like the person with 80,954 posts is back to let us know we need to re-evaluate our lives.

I've been on this site sparingly in 8 months ... in fact probably a handful of times.

You're still here spewing the same nonsense you were 8 months ago. It's crazy.

 

[RUNVS]

MR swears by em.

Only problem for poor MR is even they show Dusty only had 4 real good seasons, where he avg above 16.

2 BnFs and 4 top level seasons (2017 one out of the box) is what Dusty produced.

Solid effort no doubt.

I find with all these rating systems they do tend to overvalue midfielders compared to all other positions.

 

[doppleganger]

I find with all these rating systems they do tend to overvalue midfielders compared to all other positions.

IMHO tis too hard to try and directly compare forwards to mids.

IMHO Midfielders are the best players in the game. Forwards are hot and cold, and often rely on supply from the mids.

An example in 2014.

Buddy and Pendles both had 10 individual games where they had player ratings above 20. Buddy polled coaches votes in 11 games (with 4 perfect 10s) Pendles polled coaches votes in 12 games (only 1 perfect 10).

However, Buddy also has 5 games below 10, Pendles lowest game was a 10.4.

The cold games drag a forwards overall season avg right down.

Dusty was the same up until 2017, he would normally have more games below 10 than above 20. His good games were great, but he also had too many quiet ones.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I've been on this site sparingly in 8 months ... in fact probably a handful of times.

You're still here spewing the same nonsense you were 8 months ago. It's crazy.

Sounds like you re-evaluated your life JC. Good for you.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Why don't we collaborate on a project together that may convince a single neutral that your idea is correct.

Martin vs Hird, Buckley or Simon Black?

You start and let me know if you need me to add any pizzazz or expertise.

Facts don’t need collaboration. Martin was drafted to a laughing stock of a team and led them to a dynasty. Ablett went to GC and in 7-years couldn’t lead them to finals. And in 10 x seasons of finals Ablett’s scoreboard impact in every single season was less in finals than it was in H&A. Those are facts.

Also a fact is GAJ was a superstar player, in the best few I’ve seen in my lifetime. But his finals output didn’t quite match his H&A output - but his H&A output was so elite that’d be very hard to do. And nearly every single player without exception has inferior finals output to H&A output as you’re playing against the best teams under the most pressure and against the best defences.

In all finals Martin was 113% of GAJ’s goals and goal assist output … in H&A they were neck and neck.

Let me know when you’ve got something other than facts you’d like to
collaborate on, I’m all ears.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Mr Meow]

Facts don’t need collaboration. Martin was drafted to a laughing stock of a team and led them to a dynasty. Ablett went to GC and in 7-years couldn’t lead them to finals. And in 10 x seasons of finals Ablett’s scoreboard impact in every single season was less in finals than it was in H&A. Those are facts.

Also a fact is GAJ was a superstar player, in the best few I’ve seen in my lifetime. But his finals output didn’t quite match his H&A output - but his H&A output was so elite that’d be very hard to do. And nearly every single player without exception has inferior finals output to H&A output as you’re playing against the best teams under the most pressure and against the best defences.

In all finals Martin was 113% of GAJ’s goals and goal assist output … in H&A they were neck and neck.

Let me know when you’ve got something other than facts you’d like to
collaborate on, I’m all ears.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You haven't started the Martin vs Buckley, Hird or Simon Black assignment so I can't help you yet, but I prepared some interesting material to help your case when you're ready.

If we can convince the public that Martin's career was indisputably above those 3, that is still a hell of a win. Why not try?

 

[RUNVS]

You haven't started the Martin vs Buckley, Hird or Simon Black assignment so I can't help you yet, but I prepared some interesting material to help your case when you're ready.

If we can convince the public that Martin's career was indisputably above those 3, that is still a hell of a win. Why not try?

Martin is playing for 3rd at best. He is obviously behind Ablett and Buddy.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

IMHO tis too hard to try and directly compare forwards to mids.

IMHO Midfielders are the best players in the game. Forwards are hot and cold, and often rely on supply from the mids.

An example in 2014.

Buddy and Pendles both had 10 individual games where they had player ratings above 20. Buddy polled coaches votes in 11 games (with 4 perfect 10s) Pendles polled coaches votes in 12 games (only 1 perfect 10).

However, Buddy also has 5 games below 10, Pendles lowest game was a 10.4.

The cold games drag a forwards overall season avg right down.

Dusty was the same up until 2017, he would normally have more games below 10 than above 20. His good games were great, but he also had too many quiet ones.

Makes it even more meritorious for Dusty to average 19.34 player rating across his whole 16 finals but this is seemingly never going to be acknowledged by Collingwood or Geelong supporters here.

To put that rating into context v Pendlebury, the latter has played 18 finals since player ratings begun. If you drop off his weakest 2/3rds, ie 12 lowest player ratings, his 6 top ratings average lower than Dusty's overall average from 16 finals, Pendles 19.06 v Dusty 19.34.

If you were to take Dusty's top 6 finals, well that average is off the scale - 26.3, 30.9, 26.4, 33, 27.2, 32.1. Average 29.3 - that is not even funny it is that high. It is so high it is like people don't realise it can be real. But it is precisely why we are having this discussion, because Dusty's best collection of finals stands head, shoulders, chest and waist above any other player.

Pendlebury more consistent higher ratings week in week out in home & away footy - not disputed. Though you yourself have explained perfectly why this may be the case(forwards are not in the play as much, and Dusty has spent probably 40% of his career parked forward, Pendlebury almost never.)

But in AFL footy, much to your chagrin, every team must be funnelled through the finals to divine the champion. So those are by far the most important games. And there is nobody in history with a greater collection of finals performances than Dustin Martin.

 

[Mr Meow]

Makes it even more meritorious for Dusty to average 19.34 player rating across his whole 16 finals but this is seemingly never going to be acknowledged by Collingwood or Geelong supporters here.

To put that rating into context v Pendlebury, the latter has played 18 finals since player ratings begun. If you drop off his weakest 2/3rds, ie 12 lowest player ratings, his 6 top ratings average lower than Dusty's overall average from 16 finals, Pendles 19.06 v Dusty 19.34.

If you were to take Dusty's top 6 finals, well that average is off the scale - 26.3, 30.9, 26.4, 33, 27.2, 32.1. Average 29.3. Which is precisely why we are having this discussion, because Dusty's best collection of finals stands head, shoulders, chest and waist above any other player.

Pendlebury more consistent higher ratings week in week out in home & away footy - not disputed. Though you yourself have explained perfectly why this may be the case(forwards are not in the play as much, and Dusty has spent probably 40% of his career parked forward, Pendlebury almost never.)

But in AFL footy, much to your chagrin, every team must be funnelled through the finals to divine the champion. So those are by far the most important games. And there is nobody in history with a greater collection of finals performances than Dustin Martin.

What were Pendlebury's scores in his best finals, 2010-2011? And Ablett's in 2007-2010, Judd's in 2005-2006 etc?

Do we have Carey's in the 90s or Brereton's in some of his monster finals?

McLeod in his back to back grand finals?

Matthews Player Ratings are something I want to see. Can I get those?