Western Bulldogs 2016, Richmond 2017, Saints or Dees 2018? / Thread edit - who could be the surprise winner in 2019?

[Elite Master]

No offense to either St.Kilda or Melbourne but if either team wins in 2018 then the theory of the AFL constructing these fairy tale narratives has to be closely looked at.

 

[indygo]

Anything is possible, whether it's probable - that's the question.

Melbourne would be more probable to win a GF sooner than St.Kilda or Fremantle at present, but things can quickly change. Injuries (minimal), luck and the list - things required to be on your side to win a flag.

Oh, so a team requires luck, minimal injuries and a list to win a flag

Some great insight there. Thanks Mike__y

 

[_Mike_]

Some great insight there. Thanks Mike__y

you're welcome

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

God I hate these threads

 

[parmy2balmey]

season 3 of drought breaking fairytales has been axed due to low ratings, instead we will see a richmond re-run

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

Melbourne have the tools, but their players ran to the AFLPA to shut down their training camp because it was going to be too mentally hard for them.

 

[Martyn_30_]

Stranger things have happened, but I can’t see it unless eleven pulls off some sort of miracle.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dylan93]

I'm hopeful for both.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Re: Saints or Dees 2018?

Why are these teams chosen? What will be their point of difference?

 

[Bojangles17]

We've had two surprise winners the last two years. Very unlikely and pre finals the last two premiership victors shocked many, particularly the Bulldogs. Pretty much no one foreseen what transpired before a ball was bounced for the eventual winners of their respective seasons. The majority would have laughed at the very mention of the doggies and tige's as flag fancies. Can a Melbourne or a St.Kilda be that next side that steps up and end many decades a long drought and shock all? They seem the next best placed as a team slowly stepping up and showing glimpses of becoming a force. They both looked on track for the 8 last year but fizzled. Melbourne seemed destined for the four at one point. Or will they just continue to taunt and tease only to wither away like a wh0re into the night?

Saints and demons havent played finals for years letalone be up for winning a flag, tigers made finals 2013, 2014 2015 , dogs the year beforehand , so slight difference

 

[Giant Pete]

Melbourne could easily win it.

 

[HTT]

Oh look a Richmond fan chipping in what's new.

Certainly not the bombers winning finals

 

[markm106]

Melbourne have the tools, but their players ran to the AFLPA to shut down their training camp because it was going to be too mentally hard for them.

You forgot the mention the bit about the storm doing it every year. Come on, you know you want to.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Weird s**t like this always happens in 3's so I am very much expecting a left field flag winner this year and Melbourne look the good's.

 

[prodigy1311]

Weird s**t like this always happens in 3's so I am very much expecting a left field flag winner this year and Melbourne look the good's.

weird s**t like hawks 13, 14 & 15....?

 

[Macpotata]

Saints and demons havent played finals for years letalone be up for winning a flag, tigers made finals 2013, 2014 2015 , dogs the year beforehand , so slight difference

Yeah nah that theory means squat. Just like I mentioned the Crows not playing finals for 4 years then winning b2b. Dogs played finals in 2015, so what. They didn't play it in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Won it in 2016 travelling to Perth and Sydney. No one even pre-finals thought they could win it when they finished 7th on the ladder. If anyone said they would go to perth and beat WCE, then the 3 time reigning champs and the side that contested the last 4 grand finals, then topple GWS in Sydney who had the week off. To put the icing on their cake they beat Sydney who topped the ladder and was as battle hardened as you can get playing finals consistently and not just finals, Grand finals. People would think you're mad, like now, nut it can and has happened.

Sydney Swans

finals appearances in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016.

Grand Finals in 05, 06, 2012, 2014 winning two. In 2015 look at who they had out in the match vs Freo at Freo, even losing a player or two during the game, kicked inaccurately and still only just fell short. If not for injuries the Swans win that game and get into another prelim. Injuries also cost them in 2013, they were rolling tremendously and before that loss to Port in the wet were on track for another flag.

2012 Winners
2013 Prelims
2014 - runners up
2015 - semi finals
2016 Gf

surely Sydney would beat the dogs, a side who finished 7th, had to travel twice during the finals, and were playing a team with all these credentials as well as playing a game less during the finals?

Richmond. Played in finals in 2013, 2014 and 2015. How many did they win? Where were they in 2016?

If anyone said these teams would win the flag, you would have been laughed at. On what basis possibly could you make last year for Richmond winning it when they had won what, 2 finals in 35 odd years? Hadn't won one since 2001 and had choked the house down year after year and didn't even make the 8 in 2016.

That's the point I'm making. I'm not making any predictions saying they're going to win it. But I'm not saying they can't. Again, if anyone picked Richmond last year, and to a lesser extent the year before but particularly during the season and certainly pre finals you would have scoffed at them like you're doing now.

The main point is, if a team bobs up like the dogs or tiges did, these two teams look the best pick to do so.

 

[Bojangles17]

Well let me put it more simply , name the last premier that hasn't played finals for previous 10y

 

[Pali23]

Well let me put it more simply , name the last premier that hasn't played finals for previous 10y

Did the WB really gain anything playing one final in 2015? Given that 5th down to almost 12th is generally split by a game or percentage I doubt one final increases or premiership chances.

 

[Senor Ed]

Did the WB really gain anything playing one final in 2015? Given that 5th down to almost 12th is generally split by a game or percentage I doubt one final increases or premiership chances.

Apart from hunger?

 

[Pali23]

Apart from hunger?

Maybe but with a top 8 I doubt finishing just in or just out changes your mindset.

 

[Bojangles17]

Did the WB really gain anything playing one final in 2015? Given that 5th down to almost 12th is generally split by a game or percentage I doubt one final increases or premiership chances.

no however it says something in terms of the strength of the playing list , a side that wins 13+ matches is more capable than one that wins say 6. if indeed that were meaningless thered be loads of examples of premiers that has been absent from finals for decades

 

[CrowsFlag2018]

Both need to make finals first before anyone talks about premierships

Have a look at the high horse. All clubs fans do this. Tigers after round 5 last year were talking flags. Guess they ended up right but still!

 

[Captain_Bender]

Have a look at the high horse. All clubs fans do this. Tigers after round 5 last year were talking flags. Guess they ended up right but still!

Richmond had made finals 3 out of the last 4 years before and lol and crows supporters were talking about premierships after round 5 last year too how did that turn out for you

 

[SCRAY72]

Did the WB really gain anything playing one final in 2015? Given that 5th down to almost 12th is generally split by a game or percentage I doubt one final increases or premiership chances.

Yes. Changed the game plan. With the list they had couldn't win shoot outs vs high scoring teams. There was more focus on clearances, tackling, time in forward half.

 

[Pali23]

Yes. Changed the game plan. With the list they had couldn't win shoot outs vs high scoring teams. There was more focus on clearances, tackling, time in forward half.

Do you not think Beveridge wouldn’t have changed anyway? I just don’t buy have to finish 8th to then be a chance the following year,