Draft Review 2007 - Redo the 2007 Draft

[inthesong]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

One thing with Rioli is that he has shown what he is capable of is that his complete potential fulfilled? Obviously Hawks fans think he will be a 30+ Possie midfielder for 10 years, im not so sure he will do that. Im interested in what Non hawks fans think his complete potential is, Solid Forward or Gun Midfielder or something else entirely.

He played 19 games in 09 and averaged 15 disposals and 1.1 goals per game, with an impressive 4.7 tackles a game. But looking at those stats he isnt really midfielder yet at all. A good coach once said if you get the ball 20 times you have twice as much chance of impact on the game as someone who gets 10, and the game is all about your impact on it. His highest disposal count ever is 23.

 

[inthesong]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Not quite sure what you're trying to say, but I find it hard to believe that Rioli wouldn't be taken 1 if the draft was done again. Adam Simpson said on radio (new hawks assistant) that Rioli is pretty already Hawthorn's best player from having seen him at training.

Just ignore that as well as a nothing opinion?

He's not just a good developing player, he's already a star of the game, which puts him in a different boat to those in his draft at the moment. The others are based on potential when Rioli is already a gun in his second year.

Being the best player in a team doesnt make you a gun of the comp, Technically Andrew Swallow and Scott Thompson are the two best players in the Kangaroos teams, does that make them guns of the comp? I think not. Im not Saying Cyril isnt good im merely saying that along with every non hawks fan around he is slightly overated and hasnt dominated AFL like Hawks fans see him as having done.

 

[cs61]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Unbelievable spin from Carlton supporters in this thread.

Use your brain and have a look at what context I was using that example. It was showing that Rioli is already playing at an extremely high level for a second year player, and someone most predicted would take a long term to reach his potential.

Look who else is in Hawthorn's side. Its an enormous statement from Simpson to say Rioli is just about our best player with Mitchell, Franklin, Hodge, Lewis, Roughead, Sewell Bateman in the team.

I couldn't care less what Rioli's stats says, because it just means people spend more time on forums that actually watching football. Rioli has a huge influence on games, and will only need to get around 21-22 touches a game to have a huge impact (much like Burgoyne when he was playing well at Port)

 

[Go_Dogs]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Just had a 10 minute look through, and based on form to date, plus continued scope for improvement I've rated the top 16 players like this:

1. Kreuzer - Already a handy big man, and just going to get better.

2. Cotchin - game breaking midfielder, skillful, quick, will be able to do it all.

3. Walker - I'm sold on this kid, he's going to be an absolute beauty. NSW Scholarship player, but I'm including him anyway.

4. Palmer - Great first season, might not have as much scope for improvement as some, but if he can improve his kicking 5 - 10% he'll be much more damaging, probably 30 odd times a game.

5. Rioli - Game breaker, super quick, skillful, the whole package.

6. Ward - All bias aside, Ward is a beauty. Inside, outside, makes good decision, tough as nails, strong overhead and kicks goals - much like my next guy. [And if J.Grant is a miss, this kid makes up for it.]

7. Dangerfield - As above with Ward, just a fantastic all-round player, great frame and probably a yard quicker than Ward is. Looks a ripper.

8. Pears - Looks like the best key position player thus far, and should become a great modern day key defender.

9. Morton - Still needs to get a bit more power into his frame, but is a silky player, and with his height will be a difficult match up across a range of positions. Accumulates, and is fairly consistent with his usage.

10. Otten - A real adaptable player who'll probably end up playing just about every position on the ground, shame he's out this year as he was coming along very nicely. A great grab for the Crows.

11. Masten - I think with his motor he's going to become a pretty good player at what he does - busting his gut at the bottom of packs and creating an option running hard when others tire.

12. Grimes - Another player who has really come along well in 2009, and with a few more pre-seasons should develop into a versatile type.

13. Thompson - Good year in 2009 as above, and looks like he could develop into a pretty handy defender for the long term.

14. Taylor - A more mature recruit, who looks like he'll play 150+ games which is a good result. Has been a handy contributor and played some pretty good roles, probably not as much development left as the others before him though.

15. Rance - Looks to be a very good running, 2nd or 3rd tall type. Should be able to play across a variety of positions, goes hard and his skills are neat for a taller player.

16. Reid - Has struggled a bit to break into the side and had some injuries at unfortunate times, but looks the goods. Tough inside, good tackler, good overhead and reasonable foot skills. Should play a lot of footy in 2010 although is on the comeback from surgery.

I have left a few guys out such as Grant, Veszpremi Myers, Tarrant and Lobbe because I think the jury is still out, but they are the sort of guys that could easily still make it with some further development and/or a better run with injuries.

I think Henderson, Ebert and McEvoy have all shown a bit, although I'm not convinced that they'll be better than those I have in my 15, they are good chances of making it though.

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

I still think Myers will be a top player.

 

[deledio7]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Cotchin? I'm guessing you have just forgotten about him.

 

[Smyth94]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

One thing with Rioli is that he has shown what he is capable of is that his complete potential fulfilled? Obviously Hawks fans think he will be a 30+ Possie midfielder for 10 years, im not so sure he will do that. Im interested in what Non hawks fans think his complete potential is, Solid Forward or Gun Midfielder or something else entirely.

He played 19 games in 09 and averaged 15 disposals and 1.1 goals per game, with an impressive 4.7 tackles a game. But looking at those stats he isnt really midfielder yet at all. A good coach once said if you get the ball 20 times you have twice as much chance of impact on the game as someone who gets 10, and the game is all about your impact on it. His highest disposal count ever is 23.

Mate Rioli's 15 possessions is >>>> than most of the league's 30

 

[Smyth94]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

I still think Myers will be a top player.

I still believe he will be (although a fair few of my Bomber colleagues think he won't make it) - I'm interested to see what sort of player you think he'll become?

I see him more as an inside midfielder, he's had two games that stick in my mind, the first one vs your mob in 2007 he spent time in the middle and won a few clearances, kicked a nice goal - looked really good.

 

[Kramer1]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

I couldn't care less what Rioli's stats says, because it just means people spend more time on forums that actually watching football. Rioli has a huge influence on games, and will only need to get around 21-22 touches a game to have a huge impact (much like Burgoyne when he was playing well at Port)

Given he has a relatively ordinary disposal efficiency of 66.67% he must do an awful lot witht he 10 effective disposals he has per game to have such an impact.

 

[Monkey King]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Mate Rioli's 15 possessions is >>>> than most of the league's 30

This is where the overrated tag is truly deserved. One of Rioli's best assets is how he opens up games with his run and evasion; his disposal on the other hand is not nearly as damaging as you're making out. Far too often he just puts it out in open space and makes others work for it, hence his poor disposal efficiency.

Still, he was a steal at pick 12 (Wayne Hughes rated him top 5 from memory) and I reckon he would easily go top three from this re-draft according to what we've seen so far. Wouldn't dislodge Kreuzer from pick one though.

 

[ToroHombre]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

I'll have a go

1. Carlton - Matthew Kreuzer. Ruckman who can double as a key forward. Without Kreuzer, Carlton would be in need of both.

2. Richmond - Trent Cotchin. Classy, pacy midfielder who can influence a game even when half fit, as he has over his first two seasons. Needs to improve endurance though.

3. West Coast - Cyril Rioli. West Coast would be delighted to see a player as talented as Cyril become available. Generally a small forward who could potentially become a midfield option if he improves his tank.

4. Melbourne - Jack Grimes. This was a tougher selection. Grimes is a good kick and provides some much needed poise on the half back line.

5. Western Bulldogs - Patrick Dangerfield. This guy oozes potential and I can see his style of play suiting the Bulldogs.

6. Essendon - Callan Ward. Essendon will be delighted he slips to #6, as a player with his skill and footy smarts would fit Essendon well.

7. Fremantle - Chris Masten. Tempted to go Palmer here, but Masten will surpass Palmer, if he hasn't already. Also a WA boy. Considered Morton at this stage but Freo don't need a softie like him.

8. Brisbane - Rhys Palmer. Wears number 10 and is a left footer with blond hair, but could not be more different from Daniel Rich otherwise, because he is a hard-running, ball-winning midfielder who can't kick. Brisbane will need midfielders to replace Black, Power, etc in the future.

9. St Kilda - Tayte Pears. Would slot well into their defence - could be a replacement for Max.

10. Adelaide - Cale Morton. Tall, can run all day and is an accurate kick of the footy. Is quite lacking on the defensive side of his game. Probably the best available at this point, and Adelaide I don't think are big fans of drafting for need.

 

[DaSawx]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Myers needs a bit more time in the gym, and a couple of injurey free pre-seasons, which should help regain his pace and improve his gut-running.

Bombers have too many fickle fans, and the fact that he is a early pick who hasn't set the world on fire straight away has already put fans off-side.

He's just one that needs a little patience from us.

Good footy brain.
Good decision maker.
Strong left foot.
Quite pacy at U18 level.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

excuse me, what are you talking about? potentially?

Dangerfield is a midfielder. He played for the falcons in the middle, and in the SANFL as a midfielder.

he played plenty in the midfield for us this year too, he just lacks the tank to run out the game yet in the middle. he is also great overhead, so we can rotate him forward and in the centre.

where on gods earth did the idea that he might only potentially play midfield come from?????

Nice. He's playing as a forward at AFL level and he needs to improve his tank.

It's like me putting Masten ahead of because Masten has too date played more off the HFF/ Wing.

This thread is about what we know, (at AFL level not that much) not what players are yet to produce?

 

[twentydollarnote]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Im going to gove an Adelaide teams perspective.

I hope and think that Lobbe will rise a little this year.

I actually rate Ottens a smidge in front of Dangerfield. Patrick has more tricks but I see Ottens being a more solid contributer overall.

That just makes you a poor judge, dangerfield is miles in front of him (even if he were playing this year)

As far as the draft its pretty hard to tell because so many still havent come through but so far the categories would go something like this:

Kruzer......daylight.....Dangerfield, rioli, cotchin......more daylight.....ebert, morton types etc

Obviously the ones who've only played a few games are hard to tell yet.

 

[NYJetsfor2029]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Just thought the rising stars noms might be worth a look, just as an indication of who's had breakout games already and who we're still waiting on.

1. Matthew Kreuzer – Round 11 2008
2. Trent Cotchin – Round 12 2008
3. Chris Masten – Round 16 2009
4. Cale Morton – Round 20 2008
7. Rhys Palmer – Round 3 2008
10. Patrick Dangerfield – Round 3 2009
12. Cyril Rioli – Round 6 2008
13. Brad Ebert – Round 17 2008
14. Jack Grimes – Round 14 2009
19. Callan Ward – Round 18 2009
23. Tate Pears – Round 13 2009
27. Andy Otten – Round 9 2009
52. Bradd Dalziell – Round 21 2008
61 (F/S). Jaxson Barham – Round 4 2009
75. (NSW) Taylor Walker – Round 10 2009
Rookie 2. Aaron Joseph – Round 12 2009
Rookie 19. Austin Wanaeamirri – Round 7 2008

6 of the top 10 is a pretty good strike rate.
The only big blokes to get a nom are Kreuzer, Pears and Walker, as is probably to be expected as they tend to develop slower.
This list does look like a lot of people's first round predictions. Is that fans influenced by this sort of coverage or is the rising star a good judge like us. (I suspect the former)

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Nice. He's playing as a forward at AFL level and he needs to improve his tank.

It's like me putting Masten ahead of because Masten has too date played more off the HFF/ Wing.

This thread is about what we know, (at AFL level not that much) not what players are yet to produce?

learn to read, your analysis will benefit from it.

he rotates between the middle and the forward line - what part of that says "he's playing as a forward". he switches between, how hard is that to grasp.

admit it, you've not watched him play much have you? He's played plenty into the middle this year, and almost *ALL* the plaudits he's earnt this year have been in the middle.

but other than all the ways you're flat out wrong, setting those aside, you are spot on.

 

[Bestbird]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

learn to read, your analysis will benefit from it.

he rotates between the middle and the forward line - what part of that says "he's playing as a forward". he switches between, how hard is that to grasp.

admit it, you've not watched him play much have you? He's played plenty into the middle this year, and almost *ALL* the plaudits he's earnt this year have been in the middle.

but other than all the ways you're flat out wrong, setting those aside, you are spot on.

I though his role was more as a forward who occasionaly played in the midfield but i wouldn't have watched as many Crows games as yourself

Stats wise he only had 20 possession on one occassion during the season so you can see why some may have some reservations in rating him that highly as a midfielder compared to others from the draft who have spent more time in a midfield role so far

It was interesting to note that he averaged 5 kicks a game for the season with almost half of those resulting in a score. 105 kicks whilst scoring 21.19

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/P/Patrick_Dangerfield.html

 

[cmndstab]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

When played as an inside mid, Danger used the handball as his primary method of release. It's worth noting a couple of things:

1) Like most Crows players in their first year entrenched in the best 22, Danger was only given approximately 70% game time. This tends to be the case for all Crows players in their first consistent playing year (see Walker, and last year Tippett, Mackay... funnily enough Otten this year was the exception to the rule). Spending the first twelve minutes on the bench, and then coming into a difficult position as a leading small forward for ten minutes or so before moving to the midfield is not really the way to settle in and pick up bucketloads of possessions.

2) In the odd occasions that he was placed as an inside mid first up, he was used as our primary clearance player over the likes of Thompson, Vince, Edwards, etc, and generally outperformed them in the role. His ability to win the hard ball and clearances is exemplary - his core strength is already up there with the best in the comp - but the problem was that his total lack of fitness courtesy of a ruined preseason didn't allow him to work hard to receive the loose ball from the hands of others. So far he has had an uninterrupted preseason this year and by all reports has been exemplary on the training track so fingers crossed this won't be an issue next season.


I understand that people would be skeptical, since we hear "player X is going to move to position Y next season and take the competition by storm!!!" every preseason, but there is real evidence to say that Dangerfield will do exactly that next season. His ability to dive into a pack of players and emerge with the ball is already as good as any player I have ever seen play, and his acceleration and pace is elite. Assuming he can get his fitness up (and he is a fairly natural athlete), his inconsistent disposal is the only query over him that still remains.

 

[Slattery_20]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Myers needs a bit more time in the gym, and a couple of injurey free pre-seasons, which should help regain his pace and improve his gut-running.

Bombers have too many fickle fans, and the fact that he is a early pick who hasn't set the world on fire straight away has already put fans off-side.

He's just one that needs a little patience from us.

Can say that again. How can you write off a guy as a dud pick when he's had maybe 10 or 12 weeks fit over the 2 years. Same with Gumby, same as happened with Winders and Dempsey and I for one am pretty pleased with how they're going right now.
Myers is a nice size, he wins it well, moves pretty smoothly and he uses it OK. If he strings games together he's more than a capable player.

 

[Wally Carter]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

If Scott Thompson isn't in the best 16 performed players from the 2007 draft, then I'll eat my North beanie.

A full-back's job is primarily to stop goals, but more than ever it is about winning the ball back and getting it out of the defensive area as well.

Metres gained is a great measure of who gets the ball forward - or, in the defenders' case, who gets the footy away from the opposition's goal the most.

This needs to be looked at alongside possession retention rates as a long kick out of defence is still a poor kick if it comes straight back.

When all the criteria are assessed it's pretty clear the argument about which full-back has been the best this year will go on until Round 22.

But one thing has stood out from the statistics, and that is the incredible performance - unheralded by all to date -- of Kangaroo Scott Thompson.

Talk about the game's quiet achievers, this bloke has been outstanding all year yet has flown so far under the radar most people think all references to Scott Thompson are about the Adelaide midfielder.

He is definitely one to watch.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/who-will-get-a-slice-of-the-action/story-0-1225754511975

Best and Fairest Top 10

Andrew Swallow: 487
Scott Thompson: 477
Brady Rawlings: 476
Drew Petrie: 469
Josh Gibson: 452
Hamish McIntosh: 448
Scott McMahon: 418
Michael Firrito: 406
Adam Simpson: 358
Leigh Harding: 337

http://www.contestedfooty.com/2009/10/north-melbourne-best-and-fairest.html

All this in 28 games from a player that went at pick 37.

Easily the best value get so far from the 2007 draft.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

6. Cyril Rioli. Is a very good player and does freaky things but is definately overhyped by many on Bigfooty and even by his own club, came 2nd in the B+F over blokes like Sewell and Franklin who clearly had better years and played far more games. Cant see him being a permernant midfielder thats why he isnt top 5.

What a joke that comment is. I trust you saw every minute of every Hawthorn game during 2009 like the Hawthorn staff who vote in the B & F to base the above statement on?? Pathetic comment.

 

[cs61]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Given he has a relatively ordinary disposal efficiency of 66.67% he must do an awful lot witht he 10 effective disposals he has per game to have such an impact.

Watch the round 22 Hawthorn vs Carlton highlights in 2008 on youtube. Remember that is his very first year of football when you watch that, and there compare it with what your "star" Yarran did in his first year.

Thought you may have noticed Rioli a little more considering he absolutely cuts you up every time he plays you.

Watch what he does with his touches, about every single one turns in to a scoring shot.

 

[cs61]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

This is where the overrated tag is truly deserved. One of Rioli's best assets is how he opens up games with his run and evasion; his disposal on the other hand is not nearly as damaging as you're making out. Far too often he just puts it out in open space and makes others work for it, hence his poor disposal efficiency.

Still, he was a steal at pick 12 (Wayne Hughes rated him top 5 from memory) and I reckon he would easily go top three from this re-draft according to what we've seen so far. Wouldn't dislodge Kreuzer from pick one though.

More spin.

The fact is if Rioli gets anywhere near 20 touches, he's had a huge impact on the game of football.

The problem with 99% of people on bigfooty is they spend more time talking abo.ut the game, and on bigfooty talking about stats, than they do watching actual football

 

[Ysaye]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Following is my Top 10 (Best Available) done without Rhys Palmer, as I don't want to have the criticism of bias hanging over my selections.

1. Rioli - I think he is always going to be a HFF, but an absolute star one at that.
2. Kreuzer - Has shown to be one of the best big men in recent drafts - good both in the ruck and down forward.
3. Cotchin - This guy has silky skills and has shown a lot already that would suggest he will be an elite midfielder in a couple of years time. You would be still going on a lot of promise to take him at this pick, but he is worth the number 3 pick.
4. Dangerfield - A great pick by the crows, this guy has already carved up a few games and has the full range of attributes to be an elite, damaging midfielder in time.
5. Ebert - has shown that he is both a workhorse and ball magnet but also has significant skill levels by both foot and hand and also projects as a future leader.
6. Henderson - I think this guy still projects as a reasonable to good KP forward prospect and just needs time. Will benefit at Carlton from having to not have to compete with Jonathan Brown for the CBF position.
7. Ward - Lots of skill and athletic attributes but also the football brain. Queries over whether he will graduate to the midfield but definitely a quality AFL player.
8. Grimes - Lots of passion for the game, charisma and good football skill. Like Ward, not sure of whether he is a midfield at the top level but IMO a potential elite HBF and team captain.
9. Chris Masten - good rover with very good collector ability and speed. Not as damaging skill-wise as some of the players that I have rated in front of him.
10. Andy Otten - A good midfielder with significant height and athleticism and intensity, as well as good collector ability.

 

[Slattery_20]

Re: re do the 2007 draft now that we know what we know

Otten as a midfielder?
Henderson over Pears? (For that matter: Henderson over Cale Hooker?)