Draft Review 2015 - Redo the 2015 AFL Draft

[Haychh]

Unfortunately posting that Francis has impressed of late is a whisper I heard.

It was either a mistake or a very low impressive bar as been set.

We get it Bill, we get it.

 

[00Stinger]

I feel he's been overtaken this year by both Dunkley and Curnow. For me, those 3 are basically interchangeable and could've been in any order amongst themselves.

Curnow has been s**t this year.

Had two good games

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[00Stinger]

There's a few. this draft has some class in it.
If it clicks and consistency is found, Hipwood could streak ahead of the rest of them.
Oliver may be suffering from the form of those around him too. When Melbourne was on, he looked an out and out star.

the thing is, he is still having a pretty good year.

It is just because of his meteoric rise, he is being judged more harshly than other 4th year players.

31 touches, 7 clearances and 6 tackles a game are pretty decent stats for any player.


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[00Stinger]

Curnow is more on potential - his 7 goal haul against the Dogs showed what his ceiling looked like, even if a couple of those were from very soft free kicks in front of goals.

Dunkley started the year up forward, and didn't shift back to the midfield until Round 7. Comparing their output in the midfield:

Dunkley wins for Kicks, Disposals, Marks, Goals, Behinds, Tackles and Uncontested Possessions.
Oliver wins for Handballs and Clangers (which is a negative)
Clearances are basically the same (Oliver marginally ahead) as well as Contested Possessions.

Their disposal efficiency is almost identical sitting around 70% (Dunkley ahead by 0.1% which is insignificant)

Stats below

Averages	Clayton Oliver	John Dunkley
KICKS	11.2	15.4
HANDBALLS	19.8	17
DISPOSALS	31.0	32.4
MARKS	4.0	5.1
GOALS	0.1	0.4
BEHINDS	0.1	0.5
TACKLES	6.0	6.4
CLEARANCES	6.6	6.5
CLANGERS	5.4	3.6
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	16.3	16.3
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS	14.7	15.6

So you are basing Dunkley ahead of Oliver because of 7 games, where he has been slightly ahead of Oliver?

We just forget about the previous 3 & 1/2 years, ALFCA young player of the year, All Australian and 2 top 7 AFLCA award finishes do we?

 

[Luder]

So you are basing Dunkley ahead of Oliver because of 7 games, where he has been slightly ahead of Oliver?

We just forget about the previous 3 & 1/2 years, ALFCA young player of the year, All Australian and 2 top 7 AFLCA award finishes do we?

I am basing it on the fact that, based on Dunkleys midfield performances, he is the better midfielder. You can look back to his midfield games of last year too if you wanted.

I said further up that my reason is because I believe Dunkley has passed Oliver as a player. Rewind 12 months and there's zero chance I would say that. Based on the kind of player they are now, I'd take Dunkley.

If all we base these things on is previous performance, then I guess Ablett is still the best player in the competition, and Fyfe/Kelly/Bont/Dangerfield/Martin/Cripps aren't better players now

 

[Ducky Tie]

Oliver > Dunkley. A month and a half does not make a real sample size. Surely this is obvious.

 

[00Stinger]

I am basing it on the fact that, based on Dunkleys midfield performances, he is the better midfielder. You can look back to his midfield games of last year too if you wanted.

I said further up that my reason is because I believe Dunkley has passed Oliver as a player. Rewind 12 months and there's zero chance I would say that. Based on the kind of player they are now, I'd take Dunkley.

If all we base these things on is previous performance, then I guess Ablett is still the best player in the competition, and Fyfe/Kelly/Bont/Dangerfield/Martin/Cripps aren't better players now

You mean Dunkley was better in the midfield than Oliver last year? The same All Australian Oliver, who finished equal 5th in AFLCA award and would have won another b&f had the AFLCA winner not been in the same team?

When Dunkley wins a b&f, is AA, has 2 top 7 finishes in the AFLCA award then come talk to me.

Players need to do it for more than a month and a half. And even in that month and a half they are statistically very close which is pretty amusing considering in that period of time Oliver is supposedly struggling and Dunkley is in career best form

 

[Tulip]

I am basing it on the fact that, based on Dunkleys midfield performances, he is the better midfielder. You can look back to his midfield games of last year too if you wanted.

I said further up that my reason is because I believe Dunkley has passed Oliver as a player. Rewind 12 months and there's zero chance I would say that. Based on the kind of player they are now, I'd take Dunkley.

If all we base these things on is previous performance, then I guess Ablett is still the best player in the competition, and Fyfe/Kelly/Bont/Dangerfield/Martin/Cripps aren't better players now

You would have LOVED Jordan Gysberts in mid 2011

 

[Tulip]

You mean Dunkley was better in the midfield than Oliver last year? The same All Australian Oliver, who finished equal 5th in AFLCA award and would have won another b&f had the AFLCA winner not been in the same team?

When Dunkley wins a b&f, is AA, has 2 top 7 finishes in the AFLCA award then come talk to me.

Players need to do it for more than a month and a half. And even in that month and a half they are statistically very close which is pretty amusing considering in that period of time Oliver is supposedly struggling and Dunkley is in career best form

Dunkley was a top 5 midfielder in the league last year, they just really needed an average mid-forward so had to sacrifice him

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

The recency bias is so ridiculous in these things. Every other player is so far off Oliver its not funny.

Not only is Oliver still playing to a high standard, he's already achieved more than what 95% of the draft class will achieve.

its a non-contest, and I picked up Dunkely in my dream team draft at the start of last year, prior to him playing anywhere near he is now, he won me $500

 

[Luder]

You mean Dunkley was better in the midfield than Oliver last year? The same All Australian Oliver, who finished equal 5th in AFLCA award and would have won another b&f had the AFLCA winner not been in the same team?

When Dunkley wins a b&f, is AA, has 2 top 7 finishes in the AFLCA award then come talk to me.

Players need to do it for more than a month and a half. And even in that month and a half they are statistically very close which is pretty amusing considering in that period of time Oliver is supposedly struggling and Dunkley is in career best form

Yes, I do mean that. I mean the same Dunkley who was only playing midfield for the final third of the season. If you're going to try and argue why Oliver is better, how about actually knowing even the slightest bit about Dunks first. Or do you just default to thinking "Melbourne player good, other team player bad"?

"Statistically very close" is a stretch considering Dunkley is comfortably beating him in multiple categories while having 2 less clangers per game.

 

[00Stinger]

Yes, I do mean that. I mean the same Dunkley who was only playing midfield for the final third of the season. If you're going to try and argue why Oliver is better, how about actually knowing even the slightest bit about Dunks first. Or do you just default to thinking "Melbourne player good, other team player bad"?

"Statistically very close" is a stretch considering Dunkley is comfortably beating him in multiple categories while having 2 less clangers per game.

please point out these catagories that Dunkley is clearly beating Oliver.

I know why Oliver is better and I have stated that multiple times. See below for a third time

Clayton Oliver - b&f winner, AFLCA award has finished 5th & 7th, AFLCA Young Player of the year, All Australian (and to be fair should hav been in the squad at a minimum in 2017)

v
Jsioh Dunkley - crickets...............oh and he may have had a slightly better 4-6 week block than Oliver

 

[Ducky Tie]

Can’t believe this is even a debate. Every club would take Oliver over Dunkley.

 

[Luder]

please point out these catagories that Dunkley is clearly beating Oliver.

I know why Oliver is better and I have stated that multiple times. See below for a third time

Clayton Oliver - b&f winner, AFLCA award has finished 5th & 7th, AFLCA Young Player of the year, All Australian (and to be fair should hav been in the squad at a minimum in 2017)

v
Jsioh Dunkley - crickets...............oh and he may have had a slightly better 4-6 week block than Oliver

Goals, Behinds, Marks, Tackles, Disposals, less Clangers. He is comprehensively outperforming Oliver as a midfielder since moving into that position.

On your criteria, I suppose most would draft Sam Powell-Pepper right up the top of his draft group since he started stronger than most of the others, right?

 

[eth-dog]

Goals, Behinds, Marks, Tackles, Disposals, less Clangers. He is comprehensively outperforming Oliver as a midfielder since moving into that position.

On your criteria, I suppose most would draft Sam Powell-Pepper right up the top of his draft group since he started stronger than most of the others, right?

This season:

Oliver averages 4.8 more disposals, 0.4 more tackles, 3.6 more contested possessions and 2.5 more clearances in statistics relevant for an inside midfielder.
Dunkley averages 0.4 more goals and 0.4 more 1%ers.

Oliver's career is significantly ahead of anybody else in this draft. Even if Dunkley has bridged the gap a little bit this year Oliver is still beating him in most of the relevant statistics and significantly so. Hell, Oliver averages as many stoppage clearances as Dunkley does clearances total.

 

[Luder]

This season:

Oliver averages 4.8 more disposals, 0.4 more tackles, 3.6 more contested possessions and 2.5 more clearances in statistics relevant for an inside midfielder.
Dunkley averages 0.4 more goals and 0.4 more 1%ers.

Oliver's career is significantly ahead of anybody else in this draft. Even if Dunkley has bridged the gap a little bit this year Oliver is still beating him in most of the relevant statistics and significantly so. Hell, Oliver averages as many stoppage clearances as Dunkley does clearances total.

You've missed a lot of context here. Scroll further up, where i posted a table comparing Dunkley's stats playing as a midfielder. What you quoted includes his first 6 games playing up forward, where they can't be compared.

From Round 7 onwards, when Dunkley started playing as an inside mid

Averages	Clayton Oliver	John Dunkley
KICKS	11.2	15.4
HANDBALLS	19.8	17
DISPOSALS	31.0	32.4
MARKS	4.0	5.1
GOALS	0.1	0.4
BEHINDS	0.1	0.5
TACKLES	6.0	6.4
CLEARANCES	6.6	6.5
CLANGERS	5.4	3.6
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	16.3	16.3
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS	14.7	15.6

 

[eth-dog]

You've missed a lot of context here. Scroll further up, where i posted a table comparing Dunkley's stats playing as a midfielder. What you quoted includes his first 6 games playing up forward, where they can't be compared.

From Round 7 onwards, when Dunkley started playing as an inside mid

Averages	Clayton Oliver	John Dunkley
KICKS	11.2	15.4
HANDBALLS	19.8	17
DISPOSALS	31.0	32.4
MARKS	4.0	5.1
GOALS	0.1	0.4
BEHINDS	0.1	0.5
TACKLES	6.0	6.4
CLEARANCES	6.6	6.5
CLANGERS	5.4	3.6
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	16.3	16.3
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS	14.7	15.6

Oh so you're selectively choosing stats. Gotcha.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

You've missed a lot of context here. Scroll further up, where i posted a table comparing Dunkley's stats playing as a midfielder. What you quoted includes his first 6 games playing up forward, where they can't be compared.

From Round 7 onwards, when Dunkley started playing as an inside mid

Averages	Clayton Oliver	John Dunkley
KICKS	11.2	15.4
HANDBALLS	19.8	17
DISPOSALS	31.0	32.4
MARKS	4.0	5.1
GOALS	0.1	0.4
BEHINDS	0.1	0.5
TACKLES	6.0	6.4
CLEARANCES	6.6	6.5
CLANGERS	5.4	3.6
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	16.3	16.3
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS	14.7	15.6

So, based on the last 6-7 games, where he has JUST out-performed Oliver, you are now taking Dunkely ahead of him.

That is completely ridiculous

 

[Luder]

So, based on the last 6-7 games, where he has JUST out-performed Oliver, you are now taking Dunkely ahead of him.

That is completely ridiculous

Oh so you're selectively choosing stats. Gotcha.

So comparing stats where they've played a similar role is not how we should do things? I am comparing Dunkley's time as an inside mid to Oliver's time as an inside mid. If you guys have a problem with that, just end the debate here because it's not going to get anywhere

 

[eth-dog]

So comparing stats where they've played a similar role is not how we should do things? I am comparing Dunkley's time as an inside mid to Oliver's time as an inside mid. If you guys have a problem with that, just end the debate here because it's not going to get anywhere

You're using an 8 week purple patch to justify a player being ahead of somebody who has been at a significantly higher level for years. I rate Dunkley highly, don't get me wrong but I'll take somebody doing it for the past 2 and a half years over somebody doing it for 2 months.

 

[Ducky Tie]

So comparing stats where they've played a similar role is not how we should do things? I am comparing Dunkley's time as an inside mid to Oliver's time as an inside mid. If you guys have a problem with that, just end the debate here because it's not going to get anywhere

Where do you reckon Dunkley is sitting in the dogs b&f?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

So comparing stats where they've played a similar role is not how we should do things? I am comparing Dunkley's time as an inside mid to Oliver's time as an inside mid. If you guys have a problem with that, just end the debate here because it's not going to get anywhere

Agreed, we'll end it here. As multiple neutral people have pointed out, you're analysis is fundamentally flawed for completely obvious reasons. If you can find a neutral supporter who agree's with you, let me know.

 

[Tulip]

This season:

Oliver averages 4.8 more disposals, 0.4 more tackles, 3.6 more contested possessions and 2.5 more clearances in statistics relevant for an inside midfielder.
Dunkley averages 0.4 more goals and 0.4 more 1%ers.

Oliver's career is significantly ahead of anybody else in this draft. Even if Dunkley has bridged the gap a little bit this year Oliver is still beating him in most of the relevant statistics and significantly so. Hell, Oliver averages as many stoppage clearances as Dunkley does clearances total.

‘Marginally more clearances’ lmao

 

[Luder]

Where do you reckon Dunkley is sitting in the dogs b&f?

Most likely 3rd or 4th right now thanks to not playing midfield the first 6 matches. CD would be 1st or 2nd right now but will drop thanks to injury, while Dunkley is moving up and, at this rate, will be 1st or 2nd to Bont by end of year

 

[Ducky Tie]

Most likely 3rd or 4th right now thanks to not playing midfield the first 6 matches. CD would be 1st or 2nd right now but will drop thanks to injury, while Dunkley is moving up and, at this rate, will be 1st or 2nd to Bont by end of year

If he does come first, does that mean you’ll rate him more than Bont?