Draft Review 2015 - Redo the 2015 AFL Draft

[Luder]

you're analysis is fundamentally flawed for completely obvious reasons.

Yet you can't explain what's wrong with comparing stats of players from when they've played the same position. I would think Dunkley's games as a midfielder are the ones most relevant when comparing him to Oliver, rather than times he's played forward

 

[Luder]

If he does come first, does that mean you’ll rate him more than Bont?

No, just like I wouldn't rate Oliver higher just because he's won a B+F while Dunkley hasn't.

Lachie Hunter won the Dogs B+F ahead of Bont and Macrae last year, but people wouldn't say he's better either. Player comparisons are entirely subjective - I'm presenting stats to back up my opinion, but doesn't 100% mean that statistics, or past accolades, definitively mean one player is better than the other. I am just saying why I think Dunkley is now better than Oliver. To say one person's opinion is wrong is just ignorant, and I am now seeing why I had a few of these posters on ignore previously. Seems like rational debate can't be had on the main boards

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yet you can't explain what's wrong with comparing stats of players from when they've played the same position. I would think Dunkley's games as a midfielder are the ones most relevant when comparing him to Oliver, rather than times he's played forward

Bro, its been explained. You can compare them all you want but 6 games is a ridiculous sample size and not a reliable indicator. Is it Olivers fault that Dunkley wasnt good enough to get an a gig as an inside midfielder the rest of his games? And dont tell me how strong your inside midfield is. Melbourne have so many they pushed Brayshaw out of his natural position (inside mid) so its like for like.

Dunkley looks terrific, he has out performed Oliver the last few weeks in the same position (just). That does not mean he should be taken ahead of him. Dunkley has achieved nothing yet and if, over the course of his career, he achieves the same as what Oliver already has, you should be stoked

 

[Ducky Tie]

No, just like I wouldn't rate Oliver higher just because he's won a B+F while Dunkley hasn't.

Lachie Hunter won the Dogs B+F ahead of Bont and Macrae last year, but people wouldn't say he's better either. Player comparisons are entirely subjective - I'm presenting stats to back up my opinion, but doesn't 100% mean that statistics, or past accolades, definitively mean one player is better than the other. I am just saying why I think Dunkley is now better than Oliver. To say one person's opinion is wrong is just ignorant, and I am now seeing why I had a few of these posters on ignore previously. Seems like rational debate can't be had on the main boards

Don’t know why you’re saying this in reply to my posts. Every post I’ve made has been conducive to a rational debate with nothing personal.

 

[Luder]

Don’t know why you’re saying this in reply to my posts. Every post I’ve made has been conducive to a rational debate with nothing personal.

Not directed at you at all, sorry if it sounded like that, was more thinking aloud. There's 1 in particular that seems to ruin a lot of the draft and main board threads, and I'm sure you'd know who I'm referring to there

 

[00Stinger]

No, just like I wouldn't rate Oliver higher just because he's won a B+F while Dunkley hasn't.

Oliver has also been AA, Dunkley hasn't
Oliver has also been the AFLCA Young player winner, Dunkley hasn't
Oliver has alos finished in the top 10 of the AFLCA Award twice, Dunkley has none.

If Dunkley can be an AA player with 2 top 10 AFLCA finishes by careers end, that will be a bloody good career. Oliver has achieved that at 21 years of age

 

[Donakebab]

Hopper

You've missed a lot of context here. Scroll further up, where i posted a table comparing Dunkley's stats playing as a midfielder. What you quoted includes his first 6 games playing up forward, where they can't be compared.

From Round 7 onwards, when Dunkley started playing as an inside mid

Averages	Clayton Oliver	John Dunkley
KICKS	11.2	15.4
HANDBALLS	19.8	17
DISPOSALS	31.0	32.4
MARKS	4.0	5.1
GOALS	0.1	0.4
BEHINDS	0.1	0.5
TACKLES	6.0	6.4
CLEARANCES	6.6	6.5
CLANGERS	5.4	3.6
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	16.3	16.3
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS	14.7	15.6

Speaking of missing context, what about the fact that Oliver is getting all the opposition attention as the #1 midfielder while Dunkley is having a laugh running free down the pecking order.

 

[carnthedons]

Oliver has also been AA, Dunkley hasn't
Oliver has also been the AFLCA Young player winner, Dunkley hasn't
Oliver has alos finished in the top 10 of the AFLCA Award twice, Dunkley has none.

If Dunkley can be an AA player with 2 top 10 AFLCA finishes by careers end, that will be a bloody good career. Oliver has achieved that at 21 years of age

Unprecedented

I love the selective patch of games argument. Based on back to back games against Collingwood and Footscray about 5 years ago, Jake Carlisle projected to be better than any other player in his draft (that’s the Fyfe/Martin year for those playing at home). Dunkley has had a marginal statistical advantage over Oliver playing in a better performing team for a limited dataset, sure pick him ahead SMDH

 

[00Stinger]

"Statistically very close" is a stretch considering Dunkley is comfortably beating him in multiple categories while having 2 less clangers per game.

Goals, Behinds, Marks, Tackles, Disposals, less Clangers. He is comprehensively outperforming Oliver as a midfielder since moving into that position.

I am not sure if you know what the terminology of 'comfortably beating' actually means.

Going off your stats

	Oliver	Dunkley	variance
Goals	0.1​	0.4​	0.3​
Behinds	0.1​	0.5​	0.4​
Marks	4​	5.1​	1.1​
Tackles	6​	6.4​	0.4​
Disposals	31​	32.4​	1.4​

So over 7 weeks Dunkley has kicked 2 more goals, 4 more points (lol at even using this example), taken 7 more marks (not sure whta relevance this has, but anyway), 2 more tackles & 10 more possessions. Yet this translates into 'comfortably more'?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Oh so you're selectively choosing stats. Gotcha.

This response is almost as silly as your previous post (comparing their stats for they year, despite the fact they were playing in completely different positions for a big chunk of it).

If you're going to compare apples with apples, you HAVE TO compare how they've both gone when playing in the midfield.

Otherwise, you're comparing apples AND oranges with apples.

Would have thought that would go without saying.

 

[Checkered]

Not directed at you at all, sorry if it sounded like that, was more thinking aloud. There's 1 in particular that seems to ruin a lot of the draft and main board threads, and I'm sure you'd know who I'm referring to there

Neutral here

Just posting to say lmao not a single person is taking Dunkley over Oliver you're cooked campaigner

 

[Pomsta]

It all depends on what you need. If you need a purely inside mid then you would take Oliver. If you needed an inside mid that can move forward and still play at a high level then you take Dunkley. I know that Melbourne and Dogs supporters wouldn't agree but I believe that if they swapped clubs it would be better for both clubs. None of Melbourne's inside mids (Viney, Jones, Brayshaw) are any good if they were moved forward whereas most of the inside mids at the Dogs can.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Can’t believe this is even a debate. Every club would take Oliver over Dunkley.

Yes for now, but......

 

[markm106]

Number of times a player has broken the news to his brother that he’ll debut in 2019 -

Dunkley 1
Oliver 0

Dunkley marginally in front on that stat.

 

[Wild Bill]

Oliver has been consistently elite for years. Dunkley has been in a couple of patches.

Oliver has consistently been the best mid in his team. Dunkley has been good as the 3rd or 4th best mid.

This really isn’t a debate.

 

[Haychh]

Oliver
Daylight
Dunkley
Daylight

It’s really not an argument. Dunkley is developing into a very good footballer but he has nowhere near the amount of runs on the board as Oliver

 

[blue_trinity]

No, just like I wouldn't rate Oliver higher just because he's won a B+F while Dunkley hasn't.

Lachie Hunter won the Dogs B+F ahead of Bont and Macrae last year, but people wouldn't say he's better either. Player comparisons are entirely subjective - I'm presenting stats to back up my opinion, but doesn't 100% mean that statistics, or past accolades, definitively mean one player is better than the other. I am just saying why I think Dunkley is now better than Oliver. To say one person's opinion is wrong is just ignorant, and I am now seeing why I had a few of these posters on ignore previously. Seems like rational debate can't be had on the main boards

Please stop, I’m not only embarrassed for you, but I’m now, for some reason embarrassed for bulldogs supporters as a whole.

 

[Luder]

Please stop, I’m not only embarrassed for you, but I’m now, for some reason embarrassed for bulldogs supporters as a whole.

Beautiful contribution

 

[blue_trinity]

Beautiful contribution

What can one possibly contribute to such an idiotic opinion?

 

[Love the Drake]

I think much like Francis, Weitering has impressed of late, but his form since the draft hasn't set the world on fire.
Yet i think both have the talent to eventually break out and become elite ball using defenders.

Too early for calls on both though. Their types usually take some time.
Rance is a good comparison for both. He was largely off everyones radar until he was about 24/25.

Another year or two is when you want to judge these guys.

Yeah. Nah. Saying Francis has impressed as much as Weitering is ludicrous.
Weitering has been a lock as CHB all year, consistently playing good footy. Francis has been totally underwhelming, playing as the third tall back, or floating forward, and dropped several times. Only recalled due to Ambrose being injured.

 

[citizen-erased]

Yeah. Nah. Saying Francis has impressed as much as Weitering is ludicrous.
Weitering has been a lock as CHB all year, consistently playing good footy. Francis has been totally underwhelming, playing as the third tall back, or floating forward, and dropped several times. Only recalled due to Ambrose being injured.

This year i agree.
He was looking very good back end of last year. But this year, weitering is streets ahead.
And ambrose has caught a few by surprise with his form. Our backline is keeping some good kids out.
Yet we oddly dont move hooker forward to address a dire injury situation to not disrupt the harmony down back

 

[Love the Drake]

This year i agree.
He was looking very good back end of last year. But this year, weitering is streets ahead.
And ambrose has caught a few by surprise with his form. Our backline is keeping some good kids out.
Yet we oddly dont move hooker forward to address a dire injury situation to not disrupt the harmony down back

I think Weiters body of work is way more significant over the journey. Playing key position defender since he started. People forget what an impressive start he had in 2016 followed by an ok year in 2017 then a poor one last year. This year he has been terrific. Compare this to Francis, who has played a handful of games in 4 years and has never played key back.

The better one to compare Francis to is Jack Silvagni. Same height/weight (not big enough for key position), both play back & forward in the third tall position, both struggle athletically and both have been in and out of the side. Jack is starting to get some self belief and continuity, and has forced his way in to our top 22 (albeit Charlie and Harry are injured at the moment), playing a couple of good games of late. He needs a lot more consistency to be a good AFL player, as does Francis, but they could both make it if they get the best out of themselves week in week out. They both have time , as they are still young.

On Ambose - I went to a Carlton night last week. Charlie Curnow said his toughest opponent to date is Ambrose due to his strength and defensive nature.

 

[citizen-erased]

I think Weiters body of work is way more significant over the journey. Playing key position defender since he started. People forget what an impressive start he had in 2016 followed by an ok year in 2017 then a poor one last year. This year he has been terrific. Compare this to Francis, who has played a handful of games in 4 years and has never played key back.

The better one to compare Francis to is Jack Silvagni. Same height/weight (not big enough for key position), both play back & forward in the third tall position, both struggle athletically and both have been in and out of the side. Jack is starting to get some self belief and continuity, and has forced his way in to our top 22 (albeit Charlie and Harry are injured at the moment), playing a couple of good games of late. He needs a lot more consistency to be a good AFL player, as does Francis, but they could both make it if they get the best out of themselves week in week out. They both have time , as they are still young.

On Ambose - I went to a Carlton night last week. Charlie Curnow said his toughest opponent to date is Ambrose due to his strength and defensive nature.

Ambrose is one of the fittest we have too. So to have a guy shadow you who hasnt slowed down in the last quarter must be tough too.

Got no doubts on francis or weitering making it. Both showed immense talent during their u18 year. Id like essendon to settle francis in defence the way carlton have with weitering. I still believe he is a KPD.
Doesnt have the tank to play middle. and he doesnt suit going forward

 

[Luder]

How's the Dunkley vs Oliver battle going so far? Oliver objectively the better player, right?

 

[aussierulesrules]

How's the Dunkley vs Oliver battle going so far? Oliver objectively the better player, right?

Wrong.

He has way more runs on the board, but as of right now (ie most recent/current form, including today) you could easily make a case for Dunkley being at least as good, if not better.