Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[GapInIkonPark]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-16/great-expectations-your-big-improver-in-2018

The Blues have invested heavily in young forward Harry McKay and they are hoping to reap the rewards in future seasons. The 'Big H' has returned to training looking much stronger as he seeks to add to his two senior games in two seasons at Ikon Park. While injuries have set him back in his AFL career, McKay has shown enough to suggest he can solve Carlton's travails to kick winning scores with his athleticism, skill and goal-sense. Expect plenty of improvement from the Blues' group of talented youngsters, notably Charlie Curnow, Zac Fisher, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Jacob Weitering, who are expected to become key playmakers. - Howard Kotton

 

[ODNBlue]

It's a bold strategy, Kotton... let's see if it pays off for them.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-16/great-expectations-your-big-improver-in-2018

The Blues have invested heavily in young forward Harry McKay and they are hoping to reap the rewards in future seasons. The 'Big H' has returned to training looking much stronger as he seeks to add to his two senior games in two seasons at Ikon Park. While injuries have set him back in his AFL career, McKay has shown enough to suggest he can solve Carlton's travails to kick winning scores with his athleticism, skill and goal-sense. Expect plenty of improvement from the Blues' group of talented youngsters, notably Charlie Curnow, Zac Fisher, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Jacob Weitering, who are expected to become key playmakers. - Howard Kotton

Collingwood has mason cox as their only mention.... giggle

 

[Toddski]

Agree.

Imagine at the end of 2018 replacing 7 of Thomas Rowe Lamb Graham G-Mac Kerridge Shaw O'Shea Phillips Lobbe Casboult & Simpson with

Pick 5, Pick 23 & 25, BSOS, Manton, Hickmont and Sloane

Then we are a genuine threat in my opinion.

I'm an avid investor, and if Carlton were listed on the ASX, I would be scooping up shares by the barrel at these prices. We have the best young list in the competition and now, hopefully, a highly proficient coaching staff.

Combine that with a passionate supporter base and you have a blue-chip stock in the making. Yes, pun intended.

*Disclaimer

Please do your own research.

This is not trading advice.

 

[COBALT BLUE]

Great post. IMHO it's so hard to judge what will happen from now as it will depend upon trades, where we finish etc

I think from now for the next couple of years you will see 5-6 changes a year. How and who will very much depend upon who we can get through trades and FA. Our list now is really talented and will keep improving naturally. I really believe with the list we have we need to target genuine "elite" talent especially through the midfield. Proper depth is now the key. On top of that SOS will still need to keep picking gold later in the draft and with rookies.

How or who I really don't know but the quicker the kids develop and step up the more attractive we will look for any player

We are in a fantastic position to be top 4 side for a decade or more. Just need to maintain the process

Ye we still got a lot of cloggers on our list....think it will be closer to 10 to delist next year.......
Our list was particularly dismal and we aint quite out of the woods yet plus of course you have to accept that not all the drafts will come any where near making it.

 

[Soapy V]

Ye we still got a lot of cloggers on our list....think it will be closer to 10 to delist next year.......
Our list was particularly dismal and we aint quite out of the woods yet plus of course you have to accept that not all the drafts will come any where near making it.

Nope

 

[Soapy V]

Ye we still got a lot of cloggers on our list....think it will be closer to 10 to delist next year.......
Our list was particularly dismal and we aint quite out of the woods yet plus of course you have to accept that not all the drafts will come any where near making it.

I don't see many list cloggers any more. I see better depth and role players that can come in and do a job. Most of the time they will keep our VFL very competitive. A good list needs those players

 

[Gingerbread man]

Unless one of the kids requests a trade, who do we have left that holds enough value to justify a pick upgrade in return?

Casboult and Rowe being senior KPP's are the ones that spring to mind.

We know the backline will be OK without Rowe now so he may be surplus to requirements, and a team like GWS or St Kilda may be in the market for a key defender.

Casboult could be usurped by McKay before the end of the year, and with Curnow, Kerr and De Koning on the list, and BSoS on the horizon, Levi may need to find another home. Still a lot of doubt as to whether anyone wants him though...

Beyond those two, i'm not sure we have much currency we'd be willing to part with unless forced.

Just on a side note I read somewhere that BSOS played mainly in defence in school footy this year

 

[Soapy V]

Just on a side note I read somewhere that BSOS played mainly in defence in school footy this year

Back Pocket and bench. He's no good

 

[COBALT BLUE]

I don't see many list cloggers any more. I see better depth and role players that can come in and do a job. Most of the time they will keep our VFL very competitive. A good list needs those players

UnfortunateLy our entire system including the VFL leaks like a sieve ...

Ourlist is still pretty rough, though improved and we are training hard and trying to win games with a coach who seems to be worth his money.Our drafts are not all fully proven ....at all.And thats to be expected at any club.

We can get a couple Elite FA's next and really lift but SOS will be looking to further improve via coming drafts.......this process is now in place and will never end under the current system...to win a flag or even make top 8 coming from a disorganised club would be pretty surprising.

I see a few more years of very good drafting and consolidation as not a bottom of the ladder team.....a Carlton playing for a flag will be very different to this what we have at the moment.

 

[Soapy V]

UnfortunateLy our entire system including the VFL leaks like a sieve ...

Ourlist is still pretty rough, though improved and we are training hard and trying to win games with a coach who seems to be worth his money.Our drafts are not all fully proven ....at all.And thats to be expected at any club.

We can get a couple Elite FA's next and really lift but SOS will be looking to further improve via coming drafts.......this process is now in place and will never end under the current system...to win a flag or even make top 8 coming from a disorganised club would be pretty surprising.

I see a few more years of very good drafting and consolidation as not a bottom of the ladder team.....a Carlton playing for a flag will be very different to this what we have at the moment.

Couldn't disagree anymore if I tried.

 

[Benaly28]

Couldn't disagree anymore if I tried.

100% agree with you soapy,not sure where that came from.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't see many list cloggers any more. I see better depth and role players that can come in and do a job. Most of the time they will keep our VFL very competitive. A good list needs those players

What a wonderful list, by Soapy V

I see shoots of green, Kym LeBoises too
I see them reset for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see guernseys of blue and monograms of white
Polson and Pickett should play in place of Kerridge and Wright
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see friends shaking hands, saying Dow's wearing 2
They're really saying play the youth

And I think to myself what a wonderful list
Yes I think to myself what a wonderful list

Ooooh......yeah......

 

[thylacine60]

Couldn't disagree anymore if I tried.

try anyway

 

[Soapy V]

What a wonderful list, by Soapy V

I see shoots of green, Kym LeBoises too
I see them reset for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see guernseys of blue and monograms of white
Polson and Pickett should play in place of Kerridge and Wright
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see friends shaking hands, saying Dow's wearing 2
They're really saying play the youth

And I think to myself what a wonderful list
Yes I think to myself what a wonderful list

Ooooh......yeah......

Absolute GOLD. You always make me laugh

 

[Jimmae]

Currently thinking:

FB: Plowman, Jones, Marchbank
HB: Byrne, Weitering, Simpson
C: Lang, Murphy, <LW>
HF: SPS, C.Curnow, <LHF>
FF: JSOS, <FF>, Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Cripps, Kennedy

Int: E.Curnow, <DEF>, <MID>, <FWD>

Position battles:

Left Wing & Midfield Rotation
This is a battle between Cuningham, O'Brien, Dow, Kerridge, Mullett and Thomas, with the top 2 getting spots, and the possibility of a third taking up the defensive spot on the bench.

Likely winners: Cuningham & Thomas
Unlucky: Kerridge & Mullett
Dark horse: O'Brien

Left Half Forward and Forward Rotation
Garlett, Fisher, Wright and Polson to fight it out for the two spots in the battle of the excitement machines. If Polson is as physically ready to go as the early reports are suggesting, that might put him in as a chance to make Garlett and Wright work for their spots.

Likely winners: Garlett and Wright
Unlucky: Fisher
Dark horse: Polson

Full Forward
Big battle looming between Levi and Harry, with Lobbe pushing his case for a ruck rotation. Slim chance we might go smaller and give Charlie and Jack the main duties with Cripps and Kennedy rotating through in a medium marking forward role.

Likely winner: McKay
Unlucky: Levi
Dark horses: Fisher, Mullett

Defensive Rotation
This is Williamson's to lose, though ASOS, Macreadie, Mullett and O'Shea will be giving their all.

Likely winner: Williamson
Unlucky: ASOS
Dark horse: McDaid

 

[ferrisb]

Currently thinking:

FB: Plowman, Jones, Marchbank
HB: Byrne, Weitering, Simpson
C: Lang, Murphy, <LW>
HF: SPS, C.Curnow, <LHF>
FF: JSOS, <FF>, Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Cripps, Kennedy

Int: E.Curnow, <DEF>, <MID>, <FWD>

Position battles:

Left Wing & Midfield Rotation
This is a battle between Cuningham, O'Brien, Dow, Kerridge, Mullett and Thomas, with the top 2 getting spots, and the possibility of a third taking up the defensive spot on the bench.

Likely winners: Cuningham & Thomas
Unlucky: Kerridge & Mullett
Dark horse: O'Brien

Left Half Forward and Forward Rotation
Garlett, Fisher, Wright and Polson to fight it out for the two spots in the battle of the excitement machines. If Polson is as physically ready to go as the early reports are suggesting, that might put him in as a chance to make Garlett and Wright work for their spots.

Likely winners: Garlett and Wright
Unlucky: Fisher
Dark horse: Polson

Full Forward
Big battle looming between Levi and Harry, with Lobbe pushing his case for a ruck rotation. Slim chance we might go smaller and give Charlie and Jack the main duties with Cripps and Kennedy rotating through in a medium marking forward role.

Likely winner: McKay
Unlucky: Levi
Dark horses: Fisher, Mullett

Defensive Rotation
This is Williamson's to lose, though ASOS, Macreadie, Mullett and O'Shea will be giving their all.

Likely winner: Williamson
Unlucky: ASOS
Dark horse: McDaid

Very nice way of laying the best 22, Jim.

* There are ~15 players that are 'locks'
* There are 15-20 players battling out for the remaining spots
* Each of the free spots has youngsters and veterans to choose from

Injuries aside, going to be interesting to see how the MC fills those spots. And if/how that changes over the season.

 

[Dadda Dave]

Back Pocket and bench. He's no good

Hows that bung shoulder holding up ?

 

[thylacine60]

only a deadset idiot list manager would roll the dice on an unproven, injury-prone bsos.........

 

[Metalcrusher]

only a deadset idiot list manager would roll the dice on an unproven, injury-prone bsos.........

Christ who does Shane Rogers work for again .....

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Currently thinking:

FB: Plowman, Jones, Marchbank
HB: Byrne, Weitering, Simpson
C: Lang, Murphy, <LW>
HF: SPS, C.Curnow, <LHF>
FF: JSOS, <FF>, Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Cripps, Kennedy

Int: E.Curnow, <DEF>, <MID>, <FWD>

Position battles:

Left Wing & Midfield Rotation
This is a battle between Cuningham, O'Brien, Dow, Kerridge, Mullett and Thomas, with the top 2 getting spots, and the possibility of a third taking up the defensive spot on the bench.

Likely winners: Cuningham & Thomas
Unlucky: Kerridge & Mullett
Dark horse: O'Brien

Left Half Forward and Forward Rotation
Garlett, Fisher, Wright and Polson to fight it out for the two spots in the battle of the excitement machines. If Polson is as physically ready to go as the early reports are suggesting, that might put him in as a chance to make Garlett and Wright work for their spots.

Likely winners: Garlett and Wright
Unlucky: Fisher
Dark horse: Polson

Full Forward
Big battle looming between Levi and Harry, with Lobbe pushing his case for a ruck rotation. Slim chance we might go smaller and give Charlie and Jack the main duties with Cripps and Kennedy rotating through in a medium marking forward role.

Likely winner: McKay
Unlucky: Levi
Dark horses: Fisher, Mullett

Defensive Rotation
This is Williamson's to lose, though ASOS, Macreadie, Mullett and O'Shea will be giving their all.

Likely winner: Williamson
Unlucky: ASOS
Dark horse: McDaid

Good work Jimmae

Some suggestions:

1. I would not have both Cripps and Kennedy in the center square at the same time. Suggest Murphy to rover, Ed Curnow to center, SPS to LW, JSOS to the flank (where you’ve got SPS), and Kennedy in the pocket for midfielders to rotate.

2. McKay at FF if he can also take 10-15% of the ruck - or someone can (other than Kreuzer, Lobbe or Phillips) who means we don’t have to rely on Casboult.

3. I would put Pickett at LHF. So following 1, it’s JSOS, Charlie and Pickett as our half forwards.

4. In Pickett’s spot in the pocket, I think Wright starts and either Garlett or Polson will take it as the year goes on. So our full forwards are Wright, McKay and Kennedy / midfield rotations.

5. Byrne has every opportunity this year but he would want to remain injury-free and do well, because he could easily be pushed out / become trade bait ... Would have Williamson as the DEF bench spot as cover. If Byrne works out, Willa also adds to the midfield rotations. Garlett could well find himself here, and Lamb if he reinvents himself as a small defender in the VFL.

6. MID and FWD bench spots ... Fisher and Cuningham are my choices. I suggest above rotating the midfielders through a pocket as well as the bench.

7. I agree with Lang on the wing, but note he missed out altogether on the Consensus 22.

8. So I do not see a spot in the Best 22 for either Thomas or Kerridge.

9. Dow and O’Brien to earn their games with strong form in the pre-season and in the VFL.

10. Quite a few players stiff to miss the best 22 ... Garlett, Lamb, Macreadie, Mullett, Polson, Dow, O’Brien, Casboult ...

11. Not sure we will see a stable 22 often this season. Bolts will want to give young players such as Garlett, Dow, O’Brien, Polson and Macreadie an opportunity in the 22, and there’s horses for courses with ASOS in to play on Franklin ... We also have seven 6 day breaks (3 with an interstate leg), and I expect there’ll be around 4 changes to the 22 for the second leg of the 6 days.

 

[HARKER]

Ye we still got a lot of cloggers on our list....think it will be closer to 10 to delist next year.......
Our list was particularly dismal and we aint quite out of the woods yet plus of course you have to accept that not all the drafts will come any where near making it.

They never do, whether for lack of quality, or lack of opportunity.
To think that all of our draftees in the past three years will be regular senior players is either severely optimistic or just a little delusional.

2015: Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Cuningham, Silvagni
2016: Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Macreadie, Williamson, Polson, Kerr
2017: Dow, O'Brien, De Koning, Schumacher, Garlett

At this stage, these are the guys I'm confident will make it.

A little less confident with the others and why:
McKay: Every chance but a hard position to make your own. Other than FF, there's little where else for Harry to go. Ruck option? Maybe.
Macreadie: Lack of opportunity. If Harrison can't find his way into the back-line that may be set with Jones, Weitering & Marchbank, then we start trying to reinvent him, and all sorts of problems often ensue.
Cuningham: Will have to start getting his hands on the ball more regularly. We may not want to hear that, but that's a possible issue.
Silvagni: Could possibly be superseded, or maybe even not required with too many talls forward.

Why be confident of O'Brien & Garlett?
The CFC passed on others that may have been seen to be ahead of O'Brien and there's little doubt, he'll have his opportunity early .
Jarrod clearly has the quality and seemingly the determination now. Opportunity will be there day 1. Can't but be thrilled about him.

 

[Blue__Balls]

What a wonderful list, by Soapy V

I see shoots of green, Kym LeBoises too
I see them reset for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see guernseys of blue and monograms of white
Polson and Pickett should play in place of Kerridge and Wright
And I think to myself what a wonderful list

I see friends shaking hands, saying Dow's wearing 2
They're really saying play the youth

And I think to myself what a wonderful list
Yes I think to myself what a wonderful list

Ooooh......yeah......

Any chance we can submit your post history to the club as a CV for Head of Fan Engagement?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Defensive Rotation
This is Williamson's to lose, though ASOS, Macreadie, Mullett and O'Shea will be giving their all.

Likely winner: Williamson
Unlucky: ASOS
Dark horse: McDaid

That's a mighty dark horse you've got there...

Next to no chance he plays seniors this year.

 

[Captain Cripps]

Any chance we can submit your post history to the club as a CV for Head of Fan Engagement?

You know Ferris ain’t bad, He ain’t bad bad come on, you know
And the whole world has to
Answer right now
Just to tell you once again
He ain’t bad