- Jan 14, 2008
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Where do the picks come from to replace the 10 or 12 delistings that some are asking for ?
List Mgmt. 2017 Starting 22 | + Trimming the "fat"
- Thread starter Docker Alyssa
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- Jun 5, 2015
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Psd , lower draft like yarran and maybe collingwood jonathan mash at 60- 70 pick . Upgrade rookie like mora,nyhuis,deluca and get more raw rookie list players.
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Half that number is more likely, with Pavlich retired, Mz retired, de-listed, Silvagni delisted,
Deboer? Clarke or Hannath, both? Langdon, C Pearce, Sherro or Sutcliffe, traded.
- Jan 14, 2008
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That makes sense. The 12 that Hackdorn for example is gumming on about makes no sense at all.
There's your mistake right there. When has Hackdorn ever made sense about anything?
- Jan 14, 2008
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That was my point. Hackdorn and the delist everyone bunnies on here make no sense.
Yeah I use an inbuilt stupidity filter but you run the numbers and it's not completely outrageous...
Possible Outgoing:
Pavlich - 100% retire
Mzungu - 10/90% keep/delist
Deluca - 10/90% keep/delist
Hannath - 10/90% keep/delist
Silvagni - 10/90% keep/delist
De Boer - 20/80% keep/delist
Mayne - 30/70% keep/leave
Clarke - 50/50% keep/leave
Hurley - 50/50% keep/delist (cat b)
Morabito - 60/40% keep/delist
Langdon - 70/30% keep/trade
C.Pearce - 70/30% keep/leave
Grey - 70/30% keep/delist
Barlow - 70/30% keep/trade
Smith - 80/20% keep/delist
Apeness - 90/10% keep/trade
Across the whole list (seniors+rookies) it's not impossible we could lose 10 players. We have 16 players out-of-contract at the end of the year. And this doesn't include contracted players we could consider trading either (unlikely though). It's not impossible to replace 10 players either...
Possible Incoming:
McCarthy - use future 2nd/3rd
Base Draft Picks (3-4)
Rookie Draft Picks (2-3)
Compo Pick (1) - for Mayne and/or Clarke and/or Clancee
Traded In Picks/Players (0-2) - or more if replacing anyone contracted we trade out
Cat B (0-2)
Hopefully we get 2 or 3 compensation picks.
Even with 3 it will hard to draft more than 6 players in 1 year.
Barlow , Ibbotson could maybe get us a late 2nd or 3rd round pick. If we can get that I would take it.
That would be 8 picks on the first four rounds, even though I am being very optimistic with the picks we get.
I don't see the point in keeping Hannath, Clarke, De Boer, C Pearce, Mayne, Silvagni on our list
- Jun 5, 2015
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I hope freo will keep either de boer or c.pearce for depth prefer deboer. But i think team like GC or brisbane will look at him .
Maybe I'm wrong but I thought you only get one compensation pick no matter how many leave via free agency? Reckon 3 is wishful thinking regardless.
The other thing to think about in who we move on this year is who is uncontracted at the end of next year and what are the chances of them staying?...
Fyfe - 100% extend (free agent)
Mundy - 100% extend (free agent)
Blakely - 100% extend
Taberner - 100% extend
Collins - 100% extend
Tucker - 90/10% extend/trade
Balic - 90/10% extend/trade
Yarran - 90/10% extend/delist
Ballantyne - 90/10% extend/leave (free agent)
Uebergang - 80/20% extend/delist
Nyhuis - 80/20% extend/delist
Crozier - 70/30% extend/trade
Sheridan - 50/50% extend/trade
Ibbotson - 50/50% extend/leave (free agent)
Griffin - 50/50% extend/retire
Sandi - 30/70% extend/retire (free agent)
Dawson - 30/70% extend/retire
Suban - 20/80% extend/leave (free agent)
Johnson 10/90% extend/retire (free agent)
I think there are far less that we'll be willing to let go that are out-of-contract next year. Other than Ibbo, Suban, Sheridan and perhaps Crozier I think the only others that are a chance to leave are the retirees. So I'm thinking we probably need to cut a bit deeper this off season because next season we may not have as much opportunity to do so (unless we intend to use some 1 year contract extensions this year).
- Jun 5, 2015
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I can only dream when suban leave and cry with laughter .
You get 1 pick per player.
I think either player to either club for a 3rd round pick would be a win/win trade.
Gold coast badly need role models and both players should lead by example.
Pretty much this. There's no point slashing and burning the list if all we're going to do is refill it with late draft picks/rookies.
Aggressive trading, fair enough...but mass delistings are unrealistic.
Pretty sure we replaced 5 players in 2012, 8 players in 2013, 6 players in 2014 and 7 players last year (2015). Given that, is 9 or 10 list changes that much of a stretch?
Our picks in all those years were far worse than what we have this year (despite us missing our 2nd rounder). The last two years our recruitment was also much improved...
2014 - Weller, Blakely, Langdon, Deluca, Hughes, Hurley
2015 - Bennell, Tucker, Balic, Collins, Yarran, Uebergang, Nyhuis
My gut feel is every one of those players except Deluca and Hurley will make it at AFL. Ueber and Nyhuis not definite but signs are pretty good so far (eg Ueber getting a contract extension). Not bad given how far down the draft order we were in both drafts.
This year we will be 3rd in the draft order. So our 3rd and 4th rounders are more like our 2nd and 3rd rounders last year. If we get one or more 2nd rounders via trading out that's enough to get 3 to 4 decent players that should be upgrades on those they are replacing (either immediately or in time). McCarthy is a risk but confident we'll get him back on track. And we might trade in another player to fill a gap.
Then we can take some gambles with late picks and rookie selections. What's the risk of taking 3-5 completely speculative picks? We've done pretty well out of late/rookie picks in the past and I think it's better to spin the roulette wheel on these picks and potentially find a gun (eg Sandi, Neale, Barlow) than play it safe and get another solid but uninspiring C grader. Worst case they fail, you delist them the following year and rinse and repeat.
Could understand why they drafted DeLuca especially on the back of a great grand final game. But like I have stated before the little I have seen of him on the tv or live leads me to believe that he is simply not skillful enough with the ball to seriously be considered at AFL level. Looked like he might get a game but I suspect he might have dropped down the pecking order again. Will be handy for Peel in the finals. Hurley have not seen enough to even make a comment sadly.
My point is more that it'd be smarter to try and sell who we can rather than just lopping heads left, right and centre like many on here want to do. We can't clear out everyone all at once.
A fair few players many on here want to see us get rid of were the product of our last big draft (08). Having 1 or 2 speculative picks is fine, but basing a whole list rebuild off them is just going to keep us going in circles with talent at the very top and absolutely nothing underneath.
Apologies if I've missed it, but I reckon Johnson will be a 100% chance of retiring also.
Bugger, just saw you're follow-up post.
I have not noticed this anywhere else so Karl mentioned on 6pr that he knows that Morabito will not play next year. He has a great job opportunity in Sydney and he and his girlfriend are making the move.
I know how much we usually regard these comments but it was said with certainty and for once I think there may be an element of truth in it.
If so, I hope we hear soon, don't think Ross is sentimental enough to give him a final game but I hope he does.
I know how much we usually regard these comments but it was said with certainty and for once I think there may be an element of truth in it.
If so, I hope we hear soon, don't think Ross is sentimental enough to give him a final game but I hope he does.
Really terrific work. The only two I slightly disagree is that Hurley is a 100% keep due to his cat B status and the fact Ive heard first hand the coaching staff were wrapped with how he was going before the season started. He still won't even take a place on the rookie list if they keep him for a year. I aslo think Barlow is 50/50. I forgot Apeness is still uncontracted.
Like I said great work. Ill even make a quick apology for some of our discussions on Dawson at the start of the year. You are a very knowledgeable poster IMO and we only really disagree on one player.
As an extra note. The AFL compensation for free agent system is based on compensation for total loss versus total gain in terms of players lost through restricted free agent rules. It is not impossible to get two picks, but more than likely that we will end up with a third round pick just for Mayne or a second round pick for Mayne/Clarke. If we bought in a free agent we would get zero compensation. Those hoping for two second rounders for Clarke/Mayne leaving will more than likely be disappointed.
For what it is worth I think we should also trade Igbo (who is contracted) if possible.
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- Jun 5, 2015
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Both are good poster
.
Gut feel is that 7 - 8 changes at year's end:Both are good poster
OUT
Pavlich - ret
Johnson - ret
Mzungu - ret
Silvagni - ret
Mayne (FA)
Clarke (FA)
C Pearce - delist
Langdon (traded)
IN
B Hill
C McCarthy
Pick 3 (SPS?)
3-4 later picks
Poss Rookie Upgrade (Smith?)
Personally, I wouldn't mind getting a ready made FA defender with some grunt. Either of the Browns would do.
Would allow:
Tucker, Brown, Spurr
A Pearce, Collins, Crozier
B. Hill, S. Hill, D Pearce
Bennell, Taberner, Fyfe
Walters, McCarthy, Weller
Sandi, Mundy, Neale
Int: Barlow, Blakely, Sherridan, SPS
No hard feelings. Thanks for the Hurley thoughts - I don't know much about where he is at so went with 50/50. I also have a feeling we might look at trading Barlow as well but that the compensation offered back might end up making it smarter to keep him in the end. I still think it would be a mistake even if he got us an early second rounder personally. He's worth a first rounder to us I think. With so many leaders moving on soon I think retaining him will make a big difference in helping our youngsters develop. I thought that was the FA compensation model as well but people kept talking about multiple picks.
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