Prediction 2023 Best 22 Teams and discussion

[Steinfreo]

clangers are overrated, so many spuds don't even get the opportunity to make the clanger as they are second third to the ball.

 

[arsesmart]

I also think that time in defence is probably harder to take into account than we realise. Certainly Henry (same age bracket) has better clanger numbers than all the others I considered but he played in the forward half where there is vanishingly little external pressure on forwards compared to defenders. For example; dropping a tackle in the forward line means a ball rebounded not a goal conceded.

I mention this because I compared Walker to both chapman and young who play HB usually floating forward further than walker does. Walker was almost always on the deepest small. So usually a FB role. Do I think this increases the pressure playing deeper, perhaps not. But the consequences of failure are much higher. Clangers by definition are evaluated on consequence. A poor handball that leads to a contested turnover and a ball up is not a clanger. One that leads to a scrambled goal against is.

Possibly a bit in that. Although Henry's composure, judgement and execution with the ball has never really been a problem (in fact more a strength as the clanger stats might suggest). His biggest issue prior to this year is getting enough of it (which could also make for lower clanger numbers).

 

[DQ 4EVER]

People always say that experienced evaluation beats statistical analysis. Whilst AFL is not baseball, the revolution that came about on the back of the "moneyball" statistical analysis controversy points to that just not being provable rather that the reverse (trusting the data) leads to more wins. Most famously the Redsox beating the curse of the Bambino.

I agree that the statistic measures need to be meaningful and you may not believe in the "clanger" stat's viability. But it is consistently applied so using it as a comparison probably is as good an impartial measure as we're going to get. Particularly as I can't find anything more relevant such as goals conceded, failed tackles, rundown tackles or something else. If I was in an AFL teams statistical department I would be looking for successful (or failed) defensive actions per unit time in defense. But hey we can dream right.

Who got the most clangers in the last scratch match?

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wobbly Punt]

There's no doubt turnovers hurt and Walker is currently prone to them but the fact that gets too frequently ignored when considering Walker's performance is the one SHillShall has already bought up but been largely left hanging since then - the difference between his defensive work on the oppos best small forward and our next best option at doing that job is massive. It's not little, it is huge.

I'd argue the gap between his small defender lockdown ability and the next best option is bigger than any other position we have. I honestly can't think of a role where the incumbent best we have at it hasn't got someone there or thereabouts who could fill the breach in a pinch. Maybe Cox? Walker has noone close on our current list who can defend a small as well as he can.

Similar to Cox where I have to just accept he's going to annoy the shyte out of me regularly by being too lackadaisical, but the benefits outweigh the negatives. I think we just need to accept we'll get the odd turnover from Walker that will annoy the hell out of us, but he's doing a job noone else on our current list can do as well.

Sometimes in a game we don't need that skill from him as the oppo team doesn't have a dangerous small that needs tight wrangling. That's where the turnovers get harder to stomach. But those are also the games where he'll learn more and more on how to limit those turnovers and get better at taking the game on.

I say all this having seen Wilson over the pre-season make a very good case to be selected Rd 1. I'd actually like to see him rewarded, but I can't squeeze him in.

 

[SupermanCapes]

MOCK TEAMS: Who's in your club's best 22 for round one?

So the AFL had a crack at our B22 too. I must admit they got it closer than I expected and f it lines up this way I wouldn't be that surprised or upset.

I was pleasantly surprised they didn't have Adam Cerra in there and Lloyd Meek on the bench.

They've got Cerra starting in the mids for Carlton - maybe they updated it since you saw it!

 

[GingerDocker]

There's no doubt turnovers hurt and Walker is currently prone to them but the fact that gets too frequently ignored when considering Walker's performance is the one SHillShall has already bought up but been largely left hanging since then - the difference between his defensive work on the oppos best small forward and our next best option at doing that job is massive. It's not little, it is huge.

I'd argue the gap between his small defender lockdown ability and the next best option is bigger than any other position we have. I honestly can't think of a role where the incumbent best we have at it hasn't got someone there or thereabouts who could fill the breach in a pinch. Maybe Cox? Walker has noone close on our current list who can defend a small as well as he can.

Similar to Cox where I have to just accept he's going to annoy the shyte out of me regularly by being too lackadaisical, but the benefits outweigh the negatives. I think we just need to accept we'll get the odd turnover from Walker that will annoy the hell out of us, but he's doing a job noone else on our current list can do as well.

Sometimes in a game we don't need that skill from him as the oppo team doesn't have a dangerous small that needs tight wrangling. That's where the turnovers get harder to stomach. But those are also the games where he'll learn more and more on how to limit those turnovers and get better at taking the game on.

I say all this having seen Wilson over the pre-season make a very good case to be selected Rd 1. I'd actually like to see him rewarded, but I can't squeeze him in.

 

[Alfonz]

There's no doubt turnovers hurt and Walker is currently prone to them but the fact that gets too frequently ignored when considering Walker's performance is the one SHillShall has already bought up but been largely left hanging since then - the difference between his defensive work on the oppos best small forward and our next best option at doing that job is massive. It's not little, it is huge.

I'd argue the gap between his small defender lockdown ability and the next best option is bigger than any other position we have. I honestly can't think of a role where the incumbent best we have at it hasn't got someone there or thereabouts who could fill the breach in a pinch. Maybe Cox? Walker has noone close on our current list who can defend a small as well as he can.

Similar to Cox where I have to just accept he's going to annoy the shyte out of me regularly by being too lackadaisical, but the benefits outweigh the negatives. I think we just need to accept we'll get the odd turnover from Walker that will annoy the hell out of us, but he's doing a job noone else on our current list can do as well.

Sometimes in a game we don't need that skill from him as the oppo team doesn't have a dangerous small that needs tight wrangling. That's where the turnovers get harder to stomach. But those are also the games where he'll learn more and more on how to limit those turnovers and get better at taking the game on.

I say all this having seen Wilson over the pre-season make a very good case to be selected Rd 1. I'd actually like to see him rewarded, but I can't squeeze him in.

I don't think our side is alone there. It's such a specialist position that many sides would only have one, or even none. I'm struggling to think who there actually is ... Quaynor, Bowey, Bews and who else? Sides often just rely on team defence.

Small defenders are generally defensively average/poor with their main job to attack (e.g. Saad, Lloyd, Daniel, Rich, Coleman, Rioli, Baker, Noble, Byrn-Jones, etc). Wilson, Clark and Wagner fit this mould.

In our whole history we have barely had any smalls that are genuinely good at defending. Hayden, Kickett and Spurr is all I can think of. Parker at 187cm sometimes took smalls.

 

[oldgoat]

Need to understand what is and what isn't a clanger in the stats to have any perspective.

And... what portion of their disposals were clangers?

 

[Bigger]

Hayden and Kickett.

Gosh, we were lucky. Can you imagine The Genius bringing his 2007 form to our 2013 team?

 

[Eski3]

clangers are overrated, so many spuds don't even get the opportunity to make the clanger as they are second third to the ball.

Personally I think clangers are a terrible stat as they generally don't take into account whether a player made a good decision, just whether they executed the disposal after making that decision

Also all kicks to a contest over 40 metres being effective kicks is a dumb rule

Champion data sucks

 

[arsesmart]

Personally I think clangers are a terrible stat as they generally don't take into account whether a player made a good decision, just whether they executed the disposal after making that decision

Also all kicks to a contest over 40 metres being effective kicks is a dumb rule

Champion data sucks

Nah. If you have a very specific understanding of what a stat is, they all add something. Of course this leads to what does suck about Champion data, the secrecy they insist on for commercial propriety.

 

[Wobbly Punt]

I don't think our side is alone there. It's such a specialist position that many sides would only have one, or even none. I'm struggling to think who there actually is ... Quaynor, Bowey, Bews and who else? Sides often just rely on team defence.

Small defenders are generally defensively average/poor with their main job to attack (e.g. Saad, Lloyd, Daniel, Rich, Coleman, Rioli, Baker, Noble, Byrn-Jones, etc). Wilson, Clark and Wagner fit this mould.

In our whole history we have barely had any smalls that are genuinely good at defending. Hayden, Kickett and Spurr is all I can think of. Parker at 187cm sometimes took smalls.

Very true. Hadn’t really thought about it but that is spot on. Makes the idea of developing and being patient with the odd negative a good one.

Fans are forgiving of guys like Saad when their man kicks a goal or 2 because they get so excited by pointless bounced followed by a long but crappy kick to a contest.

 

[manpurple]

There's no doubt turnovers hurt and Walker is currently prone to them but the fact that gets too frequently ignored when considering Walker's performance is the one SHillShall has already bought up but been largely left hanging since then - the difference between his defensive work on the oppos best small forward and our next best option at doing that job is massive. It's not little, it is huge.

I'd argue the gap between his small defender lockdown ability and the next best option is bigger than any other position we have. I honestly can't think of a role where the incumbent best we have at it hasn't got someone there or thereabouts who could fill the breach in a pinch. Maybe Cox? Walker has noone close on our current list who can defend a small as well as he can.

Similar to Cox where I have to just accept he's going to annoy the shyte out of me regularly by being too lackadaisical, but the benefits outweigh the negatives. I think we just need to accept we'll get the odd turnover from Walker that will annoy the hell out of us, but he's doing a job noone else on our current list can do as well.

Sometimes in a game we don't need that skill from him as the oppo team doesn't have a dangerous small that needs tight wrangling. That's where the turnovers get harder to stomach. But those are also the games where he'll learn more and more on how to limit those turnovers and get better at taking the game on.

I say all this having seen Wilson over the pre-season make a very good case to be selected Rd 1. I'd actually like to see him rewarded, but I can't squeeze him in.

It's why he is a lock for my preferred team. I just don't see anyone doing Walker's role as well.

 

[wakojako]

Would anyone say our list is equal to Sydneys or better/worse?

 

[King Huskii]

Would anyone say our list is equal to Sydneys or better/worse?

As good as

 

[wakojako]

As good as

If that's the case than shouldn't our expectation be to finish 4/5?

 

[Joao]

If that's the case than shouldn't our expectation be to finish 4/5?

They have considerably more mature talent still in their side. From each teams last game.



From memory, the Dogs are the closest comparison to us.

 

[pK75]

They have considerably more mature talent still in their side. From each teams last game.

View attachment 1625962

From memory, the Dogs are the closest comparison to us.

And that was with a 37yo 350+ gamer in Mundy in the team. Our average age and games will have decreased since then.

 

[tonygeeks]

Warner had 50 shots at goal last year …. 50 !!!!

If he can keep that sort of production up him, Heeney Gulden and Papley give the Swans an edge in firepower that we just don’t have

 

[King Huskii]

If that's the case than shouldn't our expectation be to finish 4/5?

I expect top 4

 

[Purple Jesus]

We’re probably better defensively, Sydney better offensively. But about equal overall. We have more growth, as a whole, in us though over the next 2-3 years imo.

 

[arsesmart]

Would anyone say our list is equal to Sydneys or better/worse?

Sydney had a nice plump draw last year. Sure they came rattling home, but didn't have too many notable scalps until the wet sail came out.

For much of the year we were sitting above them on the ladder.

I think that advantaged them a little more in the run to the finals. They possibly were more prepared to adjust and adapt, being more in the hunter mindset. Horse's experience, paired with Pike's attacking nous would've given them a leg up in the shift they brought about.

 

[wakojako]

You heard the man jlo, do it

'His ability ... is elite': Gun Docker keen to see more of hulking forward

Fremantle forward Josh Treacy managed just four games last season but appears primed to make a big impact this year

www.afl.com.au

 

[Alfonz]

They have considerably more mature talent still in their side. From each teams last game.

View attachment 1625962

From memory, the Dogs are the closest comparison to us.

I dunno about that on the Dogs. They have 6 in their best 22 that are 30-32. Plus Bruce and Johannisen in that age bracket. We have 2 (Fyfe and Walters). And Wilson.

Dogs can expect to play maybe 3-5 players under 23 in their side each week. I see similar numbers looking at the lists of other supposed contenders. We have 4 absolute locks (Clark, Serong, Young, Jackson), but also Freddy, Sturt, Henry, Chapman, O'Driscoll, Treacy, Walker, Amiss. Maybe 10 will be playing in Rd 1. Throw Erasmus/Johnson into the mix and it is conceivable we could be playing a side that is close to half U/23 many weeks.

We have a very young side and I personally don't see us being up near the pointy end for several years. Hopefully we can get some finals experience in the mean time.

 

[Joao]

I dunno about that on the Dogs. They have 6 in their best 22 that are 30-32. Plus Bruce and Johannisen in that age bracket. We have 2 (Fyfe and Walters). And Wilson.

Dogs can expect to play maybe 3-5 players under 23 in their side each week. I see similar numbers looking at the lists of other supposed contenders. We have 4 absolute locks (Clark, Serong, Young, Jackson), but also Freddy, Sturt, Henry, Chapman, O'Driscoll, Treacy, Walker, Amiss. Maybe 10 will be playing in Rd 1. Throw Erasmus/Johnson into the mix and it is conceivable we could be playing a side that is close to half U/23 many weeks.

We have a very young side and I personally don't see us being up near the pointy end for several years. Hopefully we can get some finals experience in the mean time.

Bruce and JJ are potatoes, bottom 6 at best. Not entirely Bruce's fault but that ACL ruined him.

Having 30+ isn't ideal but its not a big problem if none of your best players are there. Only one of the Dogs key players over 30 is Libba (don't count Treloar these days).

Their very top end is under 30: Bont, Macrae, Naughton, Smith, English and more importantly, they have all the pieces of a quality spine under 24. They'll be decent/good for ages unless they can't replace Macrae etc as they retire.

They are old this year though since they added Rory and Jones to the B22.