List Mgmt. 2018 Draft thread.

[ash84]

Th

We will Find Out in about 3-5 Years

Though I read Knightmare thought on the Draft and he has us having the 2nd Worst Draft


http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25356894/afl-draft-2018-************-winners-losers

The positive for Collingwood is we get pick 13 by using late picks...

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

Too hard to look at the little black and white icon next to his name when he posts?

I never go on this website on my PC, I only go on my mobile. So that icon does not appear on the mobile app.

I know you live for the smarmy comments, but maybe, just maybe, think for a moment about other possibilities.

 

[ash84]

Worst case scenario for you KM is that your proven wrong a IQ wins the Rising Star, Norm Smith, AA Back Pocket in a Premiership year.

Or he never plays a game and your correct.

Either way you can’t lose!

 

[FIGJAM]

FWIW Pyeman from EB&W who attends a heap of TAC games, rated Isaac and Will about where they were taken and quite likes Atu too.

If we ranked Isaac and Will in the top 20, then we effectively got a top 8 finishing Brownlow medalist 2018, two top 20 ranked players and a late punt, all for the 2018 picks and a future first round.

A lot will depend on that future first round. Obviously, if we have a stinker, it will be expensive, with Pick 1 being the extreme worst case scenario. But if we finish at the pointy end, we might have even gotten away with what will effectively be a second round pick after NGA and F&S's are take into consideration. We're backing ourselves to make sure we do the latter, which I like and on the balance of probability, agree with.

The Micks are the wild cards this off season. Looking forward to seeing them in action!

 

[Harry O]

Optimax on EB&W said KM was a rowing coach from Sydney who does most of his scouting off tape.
Wouldn’t be getting your knickers in a knot over his questionable rankings

 

[Mortimore 39ers]

When it comes to talent ID. You make your own calls.

That's all I ever do.

I'm not just going to like a Collingwood father-son or academy prospect above someone else because they're associated with Collingwood.

Talent ID is about being objective and deciding who is better than who.

I'm the same with AFL talent.

I can say Brodie Grundy is the best in the AFL and the player I would start a team with. But then I'll back it up with reasons. Same goes with junior talent.

Respect all that. Just think you need to keep honing your talent ID skills (from memory I think you had Stevo outside of the top 10 in your power rankings last year?).

But if it weren't for people like yourself who put so much work into analysis, reviews, new talent identification etc. and then present your views so articulately for our voracious consumption, the off-season would be excruciatingly boring.

 

[Dynamics]

Optimax on EB&W said KM was a rowing coach from Sydney who does most of his scouting off tape.
Wouldn’t be getting your knickers in a knot over his questionable rankings

Or you could pop his name into LinkedIn and see for yourself what he does for a living. Small world, no secrets.

 

[Knightmare]

Respect all that. Just think you need to keep honing your talent ID skills (from memory I think you had Stevo outside of the top 10 in your power rankings last year?).

But if it weren't for people like yourself who put so much work into analysis, reviews, new talent identification etc. and then present your views so articulately for our voracious consumption, the off-season would be excruciatingly boring.

Stephenson was rated at 11 on the basis of the risk associated with his heart condition. Had there been no issue, he would have been at 6 behind Darcy Fogarty on my draft board.

I haven't heard many complaining about my rating of Brayden Crossley (17), James Worpel (23), or Bailey Banfield (43) after being questioned particularly on my Crossley rating last year.

That said, there is always work to be done and improvements and learning's to come from each draft period. Failure to do so only sees others pass you by.

This year my largest change has been increasing weighting after around the better 30 or 40 towards mature agers. Hopefully clubs start to pick up on this one, as there are in my estimatino 40 odd even after the drafts who could step onto AFL lists and earn best 22 positions on at least one of the 18 teams in their postiions/roles of preference. Clubs remain too focused on youth and seem with those particularly in the mid 20s to be blind when it comes to the immediate impacts a lot of these guys can have.

 

[Knightmare]

Optimax on EB&W said KM was a rowing coach from Sydney who does most of his scouting off tape.
Wouldn’t be getting your knickers in a knot over his questionable rankings

I recognise the name. Didn't Optimax post on here in my early days visiting this forum? Not someone I believe I've introduced myself to at any point.

I was once a national rower but have never coached rowing.

Not only have I never lived in Sydney, I've never even visited Sydney beyond the gates of the airport for connecting flights.

I can be found at, at least one junior football game every week or two if it's a doubleheader at the same venue (with the volume during U18 champs and finals obviously increasing to a full load of games during those times) - but absolutely I watch matches weekly with the weekly TAC Cup games on YouTube my bare minimum. And that's before checking out any NEAFL games of interest on YouTube or other state league games I can get tape of featuring players of interest.

I'm very low profile at games. I come from the Jerry Krause school of scouting. Pen and paper in hand, rapidly taking notes throughout, sitting away from other recruiters during games so that I'm not influenced by whatever or whoever they're watching. Often I'll station myself near one of the interchanges or blended in among the public depending on the venue.

 

[Apex36]

I never go on this website on my PC, I only go on my mobile. So that icon does not appear on the mobile app.

I know you live for the smarmy comments, but maybe, just maybe, think for a moment about other possibilities.

I don’t even have a pc. Icon appears on the mobile site. Your other option was to take 2 minutes to view his profile.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

I don’t even have a pc. Icon appears on the mobile site. Your other option was to take 2 minutes to view his profile.

I can send you a screenshot of what the app, which is what I said I use, looks like? Pull the stick out mate.

 

[partypie]

I don't care we traded out a 4th for a 4th, more that we had to come and add extra on to do it, even if it is a "useless" 5th rounder. Adds to our ever growing list of overpaying in trades we are the opposite of Essendon who are notoriously hard to deal with, where as we bring our own lube.

Most teams would of did a straight swap.

I suspect it was us who were looking to trade out first rather than Hawthorn looking to trade back in - hence us having to throw in the 5th round pick next year to get the deal done quickly.

In the end we still got a pick we can use next year for one we couldn't use this year so we ultimately benefit from the trade.

 

[nahnah]

We could of we chose not to but instead we traded 2 picks for 1 in the same range in a considered inferior draft pool.



I don't care we traded out a 4th for a 4th, more that we had to come and add extra on to do it, even if it is a "useless" 5th rounder. Adds to our ever growing list of overpaying in trades we are the opposite of Essendon who are notoriously hard to deal with, where as we bring our own lube.

Most teams would of did a straight swap.

We were never going to use it, we don’t have a list spot. Its a free upgrade

 

[Apex36]

I can send you a screenshot of what the app, which is what I said I use, looks like? Pull the stick out mate.

The other option was to take 2 minutes to look at his profile.

 

[ThePhantom777]

Lol

 

[Mortimore 39ers]

Lol

Typical. Screwed by the umps again. Cripps should have been done for incorrect disposal!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Overall we should be pleased.

Firstly we are dealing with players not touted the elite of their draft year.
To me this is a key point. We didn’t have access to the elite group eg Lukosius or Rankine, that group.

Two of our three we took, are in the range, next group down or so.
Nothing wrong with that.
Both seem good types.
Kelly in particular might be our key back of fine enough ability and with Moore we might have solidity for a decade.

The only issue with missing a gem of the later picks is if one of them becomes A grade.
If they reveal themselves to be just good honest players, not really an issue.

 

[Nuwanda]

Correct.

We missed a premiership by millimetres despite this alleged trading mistake. We have a number of players nearing retirement in 2019 (including Wells) so that the salary cap disaster from Wells and Mayne simply hasnt and won't come to fruition. We managed to keep all the players we wanted to keep and also managed to land Beams.

As for Lynch and May, its debatable that money was the reason they didnt choose us. Maybe we didnt choose them as we didnt think they were worth what they were asking either in dollar or length of contract terms. Whatever, we go back to the well and develop from within and recruit in 2019 if we need to.

It wasn’t money why we missed Lynch. The hawks offered the most, the Pies second and the Tigers offered the least. This came directly from a hawk recruiter. He said that Lynch (from mid year), told them he wanted to play for the Tigers. Was always going to go there and has even taken a lot less in his first year in doing so. Money not a factor

 

[Saintly Viewed]

It wasn’t money why we missed Lynch. The hawks offered the most, the Pies second and the Tigers offered the least. This came directly from a hawk recruiter. He said that Lynch (from mid year), told them he wanted to play for the Tigers. Was always going to go there and has even taken a lot less in his first year in doing so. Money not a factor

Money is always a factor. It doesn’t mean you always take the most, but a long term contract is greater security.
We people like to dress up our actions with a sense of nobility, and for whatever reason, money has to be claimed as a non factor.
But it is.

Whilst Lynch would have been terrific for us, I’m reminded he’s not the level of Franklin or Dunstall so we’ll be ok. Now that level would be worth it.

 

[Nuwanda]

I think we all forget that KM has an opinion based upon what he has seen in the juniors. No different to the likes of Callum Twomey etc.

As a minimum IQ was rated very highly by Collingwood, Twomey, GWS, Adelaide and possibly another ‘expert’ on SEN (who said he was the best running half back in the draft). There would have been players they didn’t rate that KM has. Just all opinions and the simple fact is that no-one really knows how this will play out for a few years.

The other thing about this is that I suspect club interviews could have a large baring on player assessment. That’s one major disadvantage the draft experts don’t have.

I keep reading about Noah Gown and wonder why he was passed up 60 times in this draft if he was really good? He seemed to have a reasonable season yet clubs must have seen a major fault in him to basically not have much interest in him.

I would be interesting to know how many KPP taken at this point in the draft actually become valuable players (excluding under age kids like Harris Andrews).

And finally, I think Dodoro stuffed himself up expecting Hawthorn to match for Mosquito and tried to hide the fact by outwardly acting like he made off like a thief. No-one shows that much emotion in picking up a player, unless they are trying to convince others.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I think we all forget that KM has an opinion based upon what he has seen in the juniors. No different to the likes of Callum Twomey etc.

As a minimum IQ was rated very highly by Collingwood, Twomey, GWS, Adelaide and possibly another ‘expert’ on SEN (who said he was the best running half back in the draft). There would have been players they didn’t rate that KM has. Just all opinions and the simple fact is that no-one really knows how this will play out for a few years.

The other thing about this is that I suspect club interviews could have a large baring on player assessment. That’s one major disadvantage the draft experts don’t have.

I keep reading about Noah Gown and wonder why he was passed up 60 times in this draft if he was really good? He seemed to have a reasonable season yet clubs must have seen a major fault in him to basically not have much interest in him.

I would be interesting to know how many KPP taken at this point in the draft actually become valuable players (excluding under age kids like Harris Andrews).

And finally, I think Dodoro stuffed himself up expecting Hawthorn to match for Mosquito and tried to hide the fact by outwardly acting like he made off like a thief. No-one shows that much emotion in picking up a player, unless they are trying to convince others.

Well spotted with Dodoro.
He’s an awkward looking guy at the best of times.
He was over Compensating, much!

 

[swoop42]

Dildoro.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

It wasn’t money why we missed Lynch. The hawks offered the most, the Pies second and the Tigers offered the least. This came directly from a hawk recruiter. He said that Lynch (from mid year), told them he wanted to play for the Tigers. Was always going to go there and has even taken a lot less in his first year in doing so. Money not a factor

"Money" includes length of contract. Not just the total cash offer. It was definitely a factor, although what he was on at GC is irrelevant because he was never staying.

I dont think Collingwood was comfortable with the length of contract that Richmond was prepared to show, so as a result we didnt pitch as hard for him as them.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

"Money" includes length of contract. Not just the total cash offer. It was definitely a factor, although what he was on at GC is irrelevant because he was never staying.

I dont think Collingwood was comfortable with the length of contract that Richmond was prepared to show, so as a result we didnt pitch as hard for him as them.

I don't agree. If Ned Guy was willing to jump a fence in Blairgowrie I'd say we were chasing reasonably hard.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

"Money" includes length of contract. Not just the total cash offer. It was definitely a factor, although what he was on at GC is irrelevant because he was never staying.

I dont think Collingwood was comfortable with the length of contract that Richmond was prepared to show, so as a result we didnt pitch as hard for him as them.

Fair assessment.

Oh well.

I’d rather have looked at trying to get Lukosius and build from there.
But we do have De Goey and Cox with the swoop squad so we’ll make do.

How good if Elliott can be healthy?

Just imagine defences trying to deal with our boys PLUS Elliott?

Cox, De Goey,
Stephenson, Thomas, Hoskin-Elliott, and Elliott