Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

[Crow till I die]

It’s odd to see these two points come one not long after the other. Carlton having a reasonable run with injury, which you’ve suggested we take on face value, will look much different to the teams they had running out last year.

I get it, Crows posters want Carlton to be very much the same side they were last year, while the Crows to turn it around with an automatic rise back up the ladder, and who knows, it may turn out that way; but the fact is there’s also a lot of potential upside with Carlton if they can get close to their best 22 fit and firing on the park each week.

How many extra wins does a carlton side minus docherty garner if it remains relatively injury free? I can see wins against GC and maybe St Kilda but after that the other sides all have quality and it would be upset wins from there. I just can't see more than 6 wins myself and that is likely bottom 3 and that is allowing for overall improvement and few injuries. The richmond game will tell us a lot as i think the area carlton will struggle will be defence and therefore huge pressure will be on the midfield to stand up to protect the defence

 

[DangerSloane]

It’s odd to see these two points come one not long after the other. Carlton having a reasonable run with injury, which you’ve suggested we take on face value, will look much different to the teams they had running out last year.

I get it, Crows posters want Carlton to be very much the same side they were last year, while the Crows to turn it around with an automatic rise back up the ladder, and who knows, it may turn out that way; but the fact is there’s also a lot of potential upside with Carlton if they can get close to their best 22 fit and firing on the park each week.

And yet Adelaide missed more and more important players last year.

 

[Robertio]

And yet Adelaide missed more and more important players last year.

He wasn't talking about Adelaide. What's a bigger loss, top players in a top side or top players in a bottom side?

 

[La Dispute]

He wasn't talking about Adelaide. What's a bigger loss, top players in a top side or top players in a bottom side?

Yep, your side is undoubtedly compromised if you lose top players in a good team, but your backup players can usually do a reasonable job in compensating - look at West Coast for example.

Losing best 22 players - not even particularly good players - in an average team means you’re playing young players without experience or conditioning or some of the weakest players in the league (Mullett, O’Shea, Shaw et all).

It’s not as though it’s not a legitimate reason for Adelaide underachieving, but it’s just as much a reason (if not more) for our disastrous 2018.

 

[Monkey King]

How many extra wins does a carlton side minus docherty garner if it remains relatively injury free? I can see wins ...

Yes I know, you see very few wins for Carlton and wins everywhere for the Crows. I really didn’t need another iteration of the same theme. I get it.

I‘ve seen it a few times now; the camp is behind you, if everyone is injury free, young guys like Milera, Gallucci, Fogarty and even Doedee take a next step, the older guys all rediscover their golden days, McAdam makes an instant impact. The whole “everything goes right” approach, and it may well turn out like that.

From a Carlton supporter’s perspective “everything goes right” unlocks an awful lot of potential in this team. If our guys stay injury free, the young guys (won’t list them, too many) take a next step, the older guys rediscover their golden days, McGovern and Setterfield make an instant impact; I wouldn’t want to put a ceiling on it.

I’m just saying I see a lot of scenarios from Crows posters where possibility is not evenly distributed.

 

[DangerSloane]

He wasn't talking about Adelaide. What's a bigger loss, top players in a top side or top players in a bottom side?

Well im sorry but Adelaide is relevant for the trade that was done by Carlton.
When someone says Carlton will perform better because they will have less injuries, then the same should be said for the comparison team who in this case had more injuries to important players.

The answer to that needs more information. Purely on that question, both would be equal.

Just saying you cant use the injuries argument as a positive for the trade, as both teams had horrid injury runs last year.

 

[Robertio]

Well im sorry but Adelaide is relevant for the trade that was done by Carlton.
When someone says Carlton will perform better because they will have less injuries, then the same should be said for the comparison team who in this case had more injuries to important players.

The answer to that needs more information. Purely on that question, both would be equal.

Just saying you cant use the injuries argument as a positive for the trade, as both teams had horrid injury runs last year.

Spoken like a true polititian.

 

[La Dispute]

Interesting though the discrepancy between say playing Paul Seedsman in place of Brodie Smith is far smaller than playing Aaron Mullett in place of Sam Docherty.

Basically:

8>6

V

9>4

Would be interesting doing a full evaluation of Adelaide’s replacements in comparison to Carlton’s replacements over a season

 

[Crow till I die]

Yes I know, you see very few wins for Carlton and wins everywhere for the Crows. I really didn’t need another iteration of the same theme. I get it.

I‘ve seen it a few times now; the camp is behind you, if everyone is injury free, young guys like Milera, Gallucci, Fogarty and even Doedee take a next step, the older guys all rediscover their golden days, McAdam makes an instant impact. The whole “everything goes right” approach, and it may well turn out like that.

From a Carlton supporter’s perspective “everything goes right” unlocks an awful lot of potential in this team. If our guys stay injury free, the young guys (won’t list them, too many) take a next step, the older guys rediscover their golden days, McGovern and Setterfield make an instant impact; I wouldn’t want to put a ceiling on it.

I’m just saying I see a lot of scenarios from Crows posters where possibility is not evenly distributed.

There is good reason why crows posters expect the team to head north up the ladder and that is the team was in a GF in 2017 - from that team lever and cameron have left (McGovern didn't play in the GF). Coming in is Doedee who has been every bit as good as lever and Milera who shapes as a very very good player. Brodie smith is back and Brad Crouch looks like he is back. Few injuries this time round - so far and no camp - every reason to be bullish.

The reason why not just crows supporters but all other non carlton club supporters struggle to see where carlton will massively improve is that the club has been in the doldrums for the last 5 years with last year being the worst of the lot. Even with a good run injury wise (you have lost docherty already, McGovern is injured and now Jones has injury) and improvement in youth - you are coming from such a long way back as a club that it would be close to a miracle if enough went right for Carlton to win more than 6 - 7 games. Now 6-7 wins and improvement is probably a pass for the club this year but more injuries and not as much progression in the kids and it could be another very lean year. That is not understating or overstating it - it is what it is

 

[HARKER]

Seems as though people keep ignoring the facts of this trade.

By the end of the season, it won't be about players, where they were rated, why Stocker was taken or anything else that would form a logical discussion, but it will be about numbers. i.e. Pick #19 and pick #? makes up for less points than pick #?, therefore Adelaide win and Carlton shouldn't have done the trade.

That's one prediction I can make with some confidence.

 

[La Dispute]

There is good reason why crows posters expect the team to head north up the ladder and that is the team was in a GF in 2017 - from that team lever and cameron have left (McGovern didn't play in the GF). Coming in is Doedee who has been every bit as good as lever and Milera who shapes as a very very good player. Brodie smith is back and Brad Crouch looks like he is back. Few injuries this time round - so far and no camp - every reason to be bullish

I see a lot of this as optimism bias, and a bit of misplaced faith in that team that made the grand final in 2017 - Crows supporters saw the preceding years as building towards that outcome rather than the distinct possibility that it was an anomaly, and since then other teams have improved.

Who really knows, but I’m not sure why these details are overlooked when evaluating.

You’re also banking on Brodie Smith coming in and performing to his standard prior to his ACL.

I would use our poor performance last as a reason we will improve, rather than a general trend. In Bolton’s previous few years he finished 12th and 14th - Carlton supporters would see that as a more reliable guide than the aberration of last year.

 

[DangerSloane]

Spoken like a true polititian.

Or just a person who is using logic not bias.
You: "Carlton will rise up the ladder because they had bad injuries last year and therefore the trade will be great"
Me: "The team they're trading with also had bad injuries last year"
You: "We're not talking about them"

 

[DangerSloane]

Interesting though the discrepancy between say playing Paul Seedsman in place of Brodie Smith is far smaller than playing Aaron Mullett in place of Sam Docherty.

Basically:

8>6

V

9>4

Would be interesting doing a full evaluation of Adelaide’s replacements in comparison to Carlton’s replacements over a season

What about playing Miles Poholke instead of Sloane? Or Murphy instead of Betts?
Your analysis of one example doesnt really work

 

[La Dispute]

What about playing Miles Poholke instead of Sloane? Or Murphy instead of Betts?
Your analysis of one example doesnt really work

Betts played 18 games last year, Docherty 0

You’d have to look at it across an entire season, lining up the teams best lineups with the line up for each round but I suspect we’d have a much larger overall discrepancy.

 

[La Dispute]

With regards to a couple of teams I think could slide, I see Hawthorn and Port Adelaide as some prime candidates.

St Kilda will either have a tiny spike or they’ll have a season from hell IMO

 

[Monkey King]

There is good reason why crows posters expect the team to head north up the ladder and that is the team was in a GF in 2017 ...

Lol. If only time went backwards hey.

 

[Crow till I die]

Lol. If only time went backwards hey.

why..we know how the team trended until the outlier of last year. Carlton were trending down - 12th under bolton's 1st year, 14th under his 2nd year - 18th under his 3rd year

 

[Crow till I die]

I see a lot of this as optimism bias, and a bit of misplaced faith in that team that made the grand final in 2017 - Crows supporters saw the preceding years as building towards that outcome rather than the distinct possibility that it was an anomaly, and since then other teams have improved.

Who really knows, but I’m not sure why these details are overlooked when evaluating.

You’re also banking on Brodie Smith coming in and performing to his standard prior to his ACL.

I would use our poor performance last as a reason we will improve, rather than a general trend. In Bolton’s previous few years he finished 12th and 14th - Carlton supporters would see that as a more reliable guide than the aberration of last year.

We had the year from hell last year and still raked up 12 wins. It is not too hard to imagine with a fit list very much unlike last year and no camp to distract AND having a much softer draw that more than 12 wins is on the cards

 

[La Dispute]

We had the year from hell last year and still raked up 12 wins. It is not too hard to imagine with a fit list very much unlike last year and no camp to distract AND having a much softer draw that more than 12 wins is on the cards

I’m not referring to more than 12 wins, which is easily obtainable - I’m talking specifically about Crows re-entering premiership calculations.

In an 18-team comp, which is currently relatively even, I think there is some misplaced optimism in the Crows current squad to achieve what they did in 2017. ‘Heading north’ is a base-level parameter.

 

[Robertio]

why..we know how the team trended until the outlier of last year. Carlton were trending down - 12th under bolton's 1st year, 14th under his 2nd year - 18th under his 3rd year

What about your coach? 2nd in his first year, 12th in his second year. Please don't use the injury get out clause. His first year he walked into a Phill Walsh system and then when he was in charge you dropped 10 spots TEN.

 

[Crow till I die]

What about your coach? 2nd in his first year, 12th in his second year. Please don't use the injury get out clause. His first year he walked into a Phill Walsh system and then when he was in charge you dropped 10 spots TEN.

But the reality was injuries and a weird camp destroyed the season. As for dropping 10 spots - they did go from a 15 win season to a 12 win season - 3 more losses and hefty %. Lets see how this year plays out - I say they are every chance for top 4 - that is where I am putting them

 

[Robertio]

But the reality was injuries and a weird camp destroyed the season. As for dropping 10 spots - they did go from a 15 win season to a 12 win season - 3 more losses and hefty %. Lets see how this year plays out - I say they are every chance for top 4 - that is where I am putting them

I think the competition is more even than you and a lot of your fellow supporters think it is. This year is going tell us a lot of things and i can't wait to find out.

 

[DangerSloane]

Betts played 18 games last year, Docherty 0

You’d have to look at it across an entire season, lining up the teams best lineups with the line up for each round but I suspect we’d have a much larger overall discrepancy.

OK what about Cam Ellis Yolman instead of Brad Crouch then?

 

[DangerSloane]

With regards to a couple of teams I think could slide, I see Hawthorn and Port Adelaide as some prime candidates.

St Kilda will either have a tiny spike or they’ll have a season from hell IMO

Hawthorn will definitely slide without Mitchell, and I think they overachieved last year.
But I'm not sure you will overtake them given they won what 14 games and you won 2?

 

[La Dispute]

OK what about Cam Ellis Yolman instead of Brad Crouch then?

That’s like an 8>5? You’d be a better judge than me, but that’s also generous on Crouch who’s a second tier midfielder.

Hawthorn will definitely slide without Mitchell, and I think they overachieved last year.
But I'm not sure you will overtake them given they won what 14 games and you won 2?

I think it’s against the odds, but missing Mitchell is huge for them given they lack inside midfield depth. From memory they had poor contested possession numbers despite Mitchell racking up a heap each game.