2019 3rd Ashes Test 22-27 August Headingley

Who will win the 3rd test?

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    53
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Hotdees said:
The ball almost perfectly straightened you say, which means it didn’t completely straighten and its still angling down legside. Ball tracking after the initial impact actually has it heading back towards the off side.

Around the wicket , pitching where it did means even the slightest angle continuing down leg brings doubt as to whether it’s hitting.

Joel had a terrible series but this was an understandable decision
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Sorry mate I disagree , it wasn't the worst decision this series but it was up there . Any ump worth their salt would have noted it pitched in line then held its line striking Stokes on the inside of the pads, another give away it had straightened and was going on to hit the pegs
Being a lefty myself that was the exact dismissal I was wary off to a right arm offie around the wicket and was coached to play against . It simple was out .

The guy by that stage had no confidence in his decision making , the only good thing is he had torched both sides throughout the series . The real question is how on earth he got another game. It threw him to wolves putting him out there again .
 
thejockey said:
Sorry mate I disagree , it wasn't the worst decision this series but it was up there . Any ump worth their salt would have noted it pitched in line then held its line striking Stokes on the inside of the pads, another give away it had straightened and was going on to hit the pegs
Being a lefty myself that was the exact dismissal I was wary off to a right arm offie around the wicket and was coached to play against . It simple was out .

The guy by that stage had no confidence in his decision making , the only good thing is he had torched both sides throughout the series . The real question is how on earth he got another game. It threw him to wolves putting him out there again .
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It May have been out , possibly hitting leg. My main argument is theres a clear error with ball tracking in this instance using the deviation of the front pad rather than using the initial impact and going from there. If ball tracking in this case is accurate then Nathan Lyon has a magic ball that he never knew he had
 
Hotdees said:
The ball almost perfectly straightened you say, which means it didn’t completely straighten and its still angling down legside. Ball tracking after the initial impact actually has it heading back towards the off side.

Around the wicket , pitching where it did means even the slightest angle continuing down leg brings doubt as to whether it’s hitting.

Joel had a terrible series but this was an understandable decision
Click to expand...
"almost perfect" is just too vague for you, is it? the accuracy is quoted as "the system performs with an average error of 3.6 mm" which is 5%-5.4% of the width of a cricket ball (cricket balls average between 66.8 - 71.6mm wide). It's smashing into the stumps and not even umpire's call and you should be able to see that.

That "heading towards the off-side" is an optical illusion of the system. As it changes colour it looks to "curve" as they swing the "point of view" around. Pause the replay with it shown as straight on and hold a straight-edge (ruler or whatever you have ) up to it on the screen and you'll see that it basically doesn't curve.
 

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People talking about dropping Paine also need to remember the psychological victory that would hand England. Dumping your captain mid series is basically saying we don't know what we are doing. It's not something that's often done at 1-1 with 2 tests to play in a fairly even series.

If there are any lingering English doubts over Headingly (s**t we pulled that out of our asses... Where would we be without Stokesy... etc), those would vanish in an instant. * boys, we're on here - we've got the Aussies in a complete panic.

It should be noted changing captains mid series is not with a precedent, and a famously successful one at that with Ian Botham standing down after the Lord's test in 1981 before going on to pretty much single-handedly win England that series.
 
The Passenger said:
People talking about dropping Paine also need to remember the psychological victory that would hand England. Dumping your captain mid series is basically saying we don't know what we are doing. It's not something that's often done at 1-1 with 2 tests to play in a fairly even series.

If there are any lingering English doubts over Headingly (s**t we pulled that out of our asses... Where would we be without Stokesy... etc), those would vanish in an instant. fu** boys, we're on here - we've got the Aussies in a complete panic.

It should be noted changing captains mid series is not with a precedent, and a famously successful one at that with Ian Botham standing down after the Lord's test in 1981 before going on to pretty much single-handedly win England that series.
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What about the psychological advantage England have knowing our #7 bat is a complete bunny?

How do our batsmen feel about that?
 
k31th said:
"almost perfect" is just too vague for you, is it? the accuracy is quoted as "the system performs with an average error of 3.6 mm" which is 5%-5.4% of the width of a cricket ball (cricket balls average between 66.8 - 71.6mm wide). It's smashing into the stumps and not even umpire's call and you should be able to see that.

That "heading towards the off-side" is an optical illusion of the system. As it changes colour it looks to "curve" as they swing the "point of view" around. Pause the replay with it shown as straight on and hold a straight-edge (ruler or whatever you have ) up to it on the screen and you'll see that it basically doesn't curve.
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Why don't you pause it at the point of impact. Take your ruler and do a measurement and see where that ball is heading and then compare that to what Ball tracking actually had. Whatever happens to the ball after impact is irrelevant. Best case scenario the balls hitting leg. Worst case umpires call. Never hitting middle and leg as ball tracking suggests
 
Kappa said:
What about the psychological advantage England have knowing our #7 bat is a complete bunny?

How do our batsmen feel about that?
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If our top 6 batsmen feel shitty about our #7 not scoring enough runs they should maybe look inwards first because they aren't exactly covering themselves in glory. Whilst obviously Paine should be scoring more runs, far more pressing is what's happening in the top 3. Our highest score at 2-down so far this series is 60 and not a single half century partnership in 12 attempts. Paine has outscored the Harris/Bancroft combination, is a mere 2 runs behind Warner and not a million miles behind Khawaja. Moving into the middle order Wade and Hade with 150 and 160 runs respectively have only just hit the bare minimum of acceptable amount of runs for a specialist batsmen.

Both teams have poor batsmen littered through their batting so not sure why Paine is getting singled out so fiercely.

Harris/Bancroft, Khawaja (outside Oz), Wade, Paine, Head, Warner (out of form but may be out the bounce back), Roy, Buttler, Bairstow (Is an OK bat but out of form), Denly, Burns (performing well this series) are all questionable batsmen at test level. Even Labuschagne still has to prove himself long term.

And besides what are the alternatives. Wade to keep? He has 4 single figure scores to his name this series so - despite a century - hasn't secured his spot as a bastmen and is a questionable gloveman who has barely put them in the last couple of years. Carey into this team from outside the squad? I don't think currently he's as good a keeper as Paine and picking players on their batting or bowling performances in the one day arena has not proved fruitful in years gone by.

Paine has to lift. There's no doubt about that and if the selectors do make the call that a change is needed, Paine would only have himself to blame. Not scoring enough runs, keeping only adequate, poor captaincy in the second and third tests, terrible use of the review system all series. It's not been a good series thus far for him and if we don't retain the Ashes he will find it hard to keep his job afterwards. But I would be massively shocked if anything changes for the fourth and fifth test. Just gotta man up and forge on.
 
Got to agree with Hotdees here, it definitely appeared to be moving back towards the off side after impact (the reasoning behind that and effect it had I have no idea). It's only paint but here's an image with a couple of lines roughly following the edge of the pre and post impact track:

736808
 
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England are definitely getting a bit lippy arent they?

From a mental perspective, it will be fascinating to see if they have a bit of a hangover period from the game....having such a win and the comedown period can be a struggle for professional sportsmen.

Conversely, people could say we are shot....but Im not so sure.

Cricket is such a game of randomness and luck...1-1 with two to play. Could easily go either way here lads.
 
A Pom said:
Got to agree with Hotdees here, it definitely appeared to be moving back towards the off side after impact (the reasoning behind that and effect it had I have no idea). It's only paint but here's an image with a couple of lines roughly following the edge of the pre and post impact track:

View attachment 736808
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A ruled straight line won't line up with the trajectory because of the bounce and the fact you are shrinking 3 dimensions into 2 (as well as the ball obviously curving in flight). But ball may have gone marginally more leg side - not to the extent of your yellow line though
 

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A Pom said:
Got to agree with Hotdees here, it definitely appeared to be moving back towards the off side after impact (the reasoning behind that and effect it had I have no idea). It's only paint but here's an image with a couple of lines roughly following the edge of the pre and post impact track:

View attachment 736808
Click to expand...

Think it may well be an optical illusion when the line changes from red to blue....
 
Mateyman said:
A ruled straight line won't line up with the trajectory because of the bounce and the fact you are shrinking 3 dimensions into 2 (as well as the ball obviously curving in flight).
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Exactly, but given the ball hasn't completely turned back on itself and is still heading marginally towards Stokes's leg side you'd expect the path of the ball to actually curve left slightly making the fact it appears to move to the right even more questionable. Hawkeye doesn't predict swing after impact because the laws state the ball should be assumed to follow a straight path.
 
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A Pom said:
Exactly, but given the ball hasn't completely turned back on itself and is still heading marginally towards Stokes's leg side you'd expect the path of the ball to actually curve left slightly making the fact it appears to move to the right even more questionable. Hawkeye doesn't predict swing after impact because the laws state the ball should be assumed to follow a straight path.
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Yeah that's actually a fair point - still smashing into leg stump though I'd say.
 
cows said:
This 3 day game has a live stream boys:

Derbyshire County Cricket Club | derbyshireccc.com | The County Ground

Latest news from Derbyshire County Cricket Club. View fixtures, buy tickets, watch videos and follow all the action with our Match Centres.
live.derbyshireccc.com live.derbyshireccc.com
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Derbyshire batting pretty much full strength. Very light on with their bowling, although it will be interesting to see how Qadri goes as he had a bit of talk about him here over the last year or so.
 
A Pom said:
Got to agree with Hotdees here, it definitely appeared to be moving back towards the off side after impact (the reasoning behind that and effect it had I have no idea). It's only paint but here's an image with a couple of lines roughly following the edge of the pre and post impact track:

View attachment 736808
Click to expand...
that's some not so great line drawing mate... to be perfectly honest.

the problem with all of the images we have is that it's only a couple of pixels each way and the edges of the tracking path and the superimposed "perfect ball" is blurry around the edges, too.

I tried the same thing (the biggest I could find was a screenshot of the 1080p youtube footage_)... there's a blurry line at the edge of the stumps that's 1 pixel wider than the stumps... its the same with the "stumps/pitch section", so we can ignore this blurriness and just assume that the blurriness encapsulates the actual detection pathway.
- the ball at the pitching point has a "2px fuzzy edge" which is 10px from the line of pixels immediately outside the "stumps/pitch section"
- the ball at the leg impact point is 9 pixels from the same line
- the ball at the stumps impact point is 8 pixels from the same line
- the amount of pixels between the pitching point and the impact point is 93 (I drew the same size circle centered at the centre pixel of each ball and drew a line between them.
- the amount of pixels between the leg impact point and the stumps impact point is 164 pixels (this was harder to guess as the "blue" of the ball tracking obscures more than of the ball).
- the circle for the ball is about 20 pixels wide.

Since these numbers of 93 and 164 for distances and the ball is about 20 wide means that the ball moved 1.76 times as far (without taking into account foreshortening of the camera) and deviated half as much on the "predicted" travel as compared to the travel pathway, but this "half" as much is only 1 pixel compared to two, which means we need more detail to ascertain the inaccuracy... but still, one pixel is the same as this 5% calculated inaccuracy of the ball-tracking software, so it's within reason.

On top of all of that, if the ball had gone from a corrected pathway to be "exactly" the same as before, then it should be 2 pixels * 1.76 = 3.52 pixels (round up to 4 is fine with me) then the ball should be 5 pixels in from the outer-edge of the stump in the best-case scenario. The ball would have had to move another 15 pixels to the leg-side to be any chance of being in the "umpire's call" region and that's approximately 9.5 times (19pixels) distance covered from point of impact with the leg when compared to the pitching-to-leg-impact distance, which is basically am impossible trajectory (but we don't have more accurate measurement data for the two comparison lengths that I could find for this, but I think this approximation is reasonable to consider).

I know the ball-tracking software has to work hard to render an image in 2D here as it's a 3D calculation/projection, so it adds some slope etc to the ball anyway (taking into account gravity etc), so that could entail why it's projected slightly out (and probably within it's error margins) on the image everybody is discussing here.

All in all, it's just plain OUT and nobody can prove it's even close to umpire's call even if you draw some wonky lines :)

here's my image if you want to check my work (might be a pixel or two off as it's a bit up to interpretation with regard to the blurry bits).
736916


Hotdees said:
Why don't you pause it at the point of impact. Take your ruler and do a measurement and see where that ball is heading and then compare that to what Ball tracking actually had. Whatever happens to the ball after impact is irrelevant. Best case scenario the balls hitting leg. Worst case umpires call. Never hitting middle and leg as ball tracking suggests
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have a look at my post to "A Pom" above and if you don't have any deviation in your position from that, I give up trying to reason with you.
 
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