2019 AFL draft

Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
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An average player selected in the top 10 of the draft is by definition a bad pick.

Why do all this horse trading, pick swapping and risk taking to get an extra high end selection if an ‘average player’ is acceptable? That doesn’t make sense and if that is your take then I’m afraid it’s you who doesn’t understand the drafting and recruiting process too well.
Because context matters - if you're writing off recruiting managers for taking risks on key position players then you're condemning yourself to bad list management.
 

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Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
16,711
19,661
Melbourne
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Melbourne

Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
16,711
19,661
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Throw Morabito in there as well and we'd be on to a sure-fire winner.
"Hey Brodie, heard you did your ACL and wanted to offer some support"
"Hey thanks, is this three time AA and ACL recoverer Max Gawn?"
"Nah it's Alex Johnson"
"Who?"
"Yeah I did my ACL at the peak of my career in the 2012 grand final and then ruptured it four more times and played two more games over the next seven years"
"What"
"Yeah you'll probably be fine, just keep at it. Anyway, here's my friend Sam Docherty who's done two ACLs since he was an All Australian in 2017 and might never play another game"
 
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El Sketcho

Rookie
Apr 24, 2012
43
79
AFL Club
Melbourne
"Hey Brodie, heard you did your ACL and wanted to offer some support"
"Hey thanks, is this three time AA and ACL recoverer Max Gawn?"
"Nah it's Alex Johnson"
"Who?"
"Yeah I did my ACL at the peak of my career in the 2012 grand final and then ruptured it four more times and played two more games over the next seven years"
"What"
"Yeah you'll probably be fine, just keep at it. Anyway, here's my friend Sam Docherty who's done two ACLs since he was an All Australian in 2017 and might never play another game"
There has been some really interesting research about recurring ligament damage post initial surgery. There was a quite sizable study about the relationship between the angle of the thigh bone between the hip and knee and repeat injuries, whether an injury is truly acute or whether there is a structural cause.

Hopefully Kemp has some sweet thigh angle.
 

ABray10

Team Captain
Aug 30, 2017
516
686
AFL Club
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An average player selected in the top 10 of the draft is by definition a bad pick.

Why do all this horse trading, pick swapping and risk taking to get an extra high end selection if an ‘average player’ is acceptable? That doesn’t make sense and if that is your take then I’m afraid it’s you who doesn’t understand the drafting and recruiting process too well.
On average there wouldn't be more than 2-3 stars (top 100 in the league, top 5 or so at their club) taken in the top 10 each year. If we get one with one of our picks I would happily have an 'average' player with the other one.
 

Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
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On average there wouldn't be more than 2-3 stars (top 100 in the league, top 5 or so at their club) taken in the top 10 each year. If we get one with one of our picks I would happily have an 'average' player with the other one.
Yep. People take early picks too seriously in what is ultimately a team sport. Weid isn’t a star but he’s a system player. If you get a key forward like Buddy that can own a game no matter what that’s great but those players are rare anyway. Par for the course with KPFs is actually extremely low IMO.
 

GatesOfHell

Senior List
Oct 19, 2019
158
251
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People take early picks too seriously
Including evidently Jason Taylor who’s put in a whole truckload of wheeling and dealing prior to two drafts now (2015 & 2019) to secure two picks inside the top ten. I’m sure he’s rationale for doing so has been to maximise his chances of grabbing an average player or two. Lol.
 
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mickent1

Draftee
Aug 8, 2006
19
65
AFL Club
Melbourne
Weid is 22. Still very young. I think he has shown enough at this age, taking into account his injuries too, to suggest he is going to be a really good key forward for us. Would love him to have dominated games and been more consistent but think that will come and he will grow into a very important player for us. Lots of people have written him off way too early.
 

rhaz

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2008
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Weid is 22. Still very young. I think he has shown enough at this age, taking into account his injuries too, to suggest he is going to be a really good key forward for us. Would love him to have dominated games and been more consistent but think that will come and he will grow into a very important player for us. Lots of people have written him off way too early.
Good call. He has shown just as much as most others of his type from the same draft. Schache, McKay, Hipwood all have show signs but not consistently. Burton and Himmelberg have been more consistent but also playing in far better teams.

Weitering has stalled massively after a terrific debut season.

The one outlier is Charlie Curnow. It looks like, in hindsight, a risk-adverse draft decision to not take him.
 

GatesOfHell

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Oct 19, 2019
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I reckon Sydney take Serong for sure.
Me too.
The reason I think Kemp will reach our pick 8
Good call. He has shown just as much as most others of his type from the same draft. Schache, McKay, Hipwood all have show signs but not consistently. Burton and Himmelberg have been more consistent but also playing in far better teams.

Weitering has stalled massively after a terrific debut season.

The one outlier is Charlie Curnow. It looks like, in hindsight, a risk-adverse draft decision to not take him.
“Risk averse” is a bit kind I reckon. “Stupid” more apt. Curnow could become the best player in the competition in a few seasons. Massive ceiling.

Weitering’s 2018 was a bit flat but his 2019 was much better.
 

harry000

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Sep 9, 2015
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Me too.
The reason I think Kemp will reach our pick 8


“Risk averse” is a bit kind I reckon. “Stupid” more apt. Curnow could become the best player in the competition in a few seasons. Massive ceiling.

Weitering’s 2018 was a bit flat but his 2019 was much better.
Curnow plays 1 good game in every 4 and the media cream themselves once a month so we automatically think hes a gun based on a few headlines.

Take out the one outlier where he beat up on the Bulldogs terrible defence and there are 75 goal kickers ahead of him for goals per game including the likes of Mark Baguley, Mitch Brown, Mason Cox, Matt Taberner, Billy Gowers, Jeff Garlett, Gary Rohan.

Josh Jenkins kicks twice as many goals per game, as does Bailey Dale.

If Curnow played for anyone other than Carlton people would be saying he is a bust.

Additionally, dont try and tell me he does more than just kick goals because his disposal is rubbish.

We had 37 players this year with a higher disposal efficiency than Curnow. 39 played senior games,
 
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Topkent

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Aug 29, 2010
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Curnow plays 1 good game in every 4 and the media cream themselves once a month so we automatically think hes a gun based on a few headlines.

Take out the one outlier where he beat up on the Bulldogs terrible defence and there are 75 goal kickers ahead of him for goals per game including the likes of Mark Baguley, Mitch Brown, Mason Cox, Matt Taberner, Billy Gowers, Jeff Garlett, Gary Rohan.

Josh Jenkins kicks twice as many goals per game, as does Bailey Dale.

If Curnow played for anyone other than Carlton people would be saying he is a bust.

Additionally, dont try and tell me he does more than just kick goals because his disposal is rubbish.

We had 37 players this year with a higher disposal efficiency than Curnow. 39 played senior games,
Not sure why but I do love it when someone destroys an opinion with multiple stats.
 

mickent1

Draftee
Aug 8, 2006
19
65
AFL Club
Melbourne
“Risk averse” is a bit kind I reckon. “Stupid” more apt. Curnow could become the best player in the competition in a few seasons. Massive ceiling.
Weideman has a massive ceiling too. He is a 22 year old key forward who has shown his potential on multiple occasions, including in big games. Maybe try supporting the kid instead of writing him off. Weideman's outputs vs Curnow's at this stage of their very young careers is nowhere near as big as you are making out and it's way too early to be calling the decision to draft him 'stupid'.
 

GatesOfHell

Senior List
Oct 19, 2019
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Weideman has a massive ceiling too. He is a 22 year old key forward who has shown his potential on multiple occasions, including in big games. Maybe try supporting the kid instead of writing him off. Weideman's outputs vs Curnow's at this stage of their very young careers is nowhere near as big as you are making out and it's way too early to be calling the decision to draft him 'stupid'.
It’s my opinion. It also happens to be the same opinion as a number of ex-champion AFL players including Derm Brereton but what would they know.
 

blitznu

Club Legend
Jan 6, 2013
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It’s my opinion. It also happens to be the same opinion as a number of ex-champion AFL players including Derm Brereton but what would they know.
Pretty sure it was Ox who said that Weid gets to the right spot nearly every time its just his hands that are letting him down ATM. Obviously as he gets stronger so will his hands and wont be pushed under the ball as easily. Thats what i notice the most he gets there just doesnt take the marks
 

harry000

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It’s my opinion. It also happens to be the same opinion as a number of ex-champion AFL players including Derm Brereton but what would they know.
The difference is they comment with their sensationalist media hat on. I doubt many ex AFL players would be writing him off behind closed doors coming off an 11 games season where he had a lot of injury issues. Not like he was stuck at Casey... only played 3 games at VFL level.
 

CWaffles

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Jul 10, 2012
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I think Kemp will slide to 8, other than GC who will take Anderson and Kemp we will get our second pick at 8, i don't see any of the other teams willing to take a guy that probably won't play next year and will have some question marks over him, most teams will look to add someone who can impact in the first 2 years, if we take young at 3 we then can take a risk on Kemp at 8 knowing we will already have a player that can impact straight away.

We may rate Kemp better than all of next year's crop of draftees so makes sense to take him and get him on the field in 2021.
 

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