Flick pass expert
- Nov 16, 2004
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- The Mighty Blacks
This trade is really about 2020. Its a heavily compromised draft with 17 of the top 35-40 players expected to be taken via father son and academy matching bids.However, it was the SECOND trade. This was the first one:
Port Adelaide receive pick No.66 and Fremantle's second-round selection next year while Fremantle has received picks No.52 and 55.
Can someone explain me the reason behind it? I am really struggling to understand.
Starting point to remember is that next year we have 2 players we are keen to pick that we can bid on. Father son selection Taj Schofield, son of mid field coach Jarrad and from our Next Generation Academy is Lachlan Jones. Schofield seems to be a in the range of a pick 10-20, and Jones in the range of pick 20-30. Over the next 12 months they could zoom up or drop down the ratings.
We have traded away our 1st Round 2020 pick to Brisbane and we have moved the following before this Freo trade
3rd Rd 2020 IN from St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 OUT to St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 In from GWS received from Adelaide as part of Frampton trade.
So at this stage if the 2020 ladder was the same as 2019, and knowing GC have been given a priority pick at 11, then before this Freo trade, we would have picks (trade out 9 to Brisbane) 28, 42 (from St Kilda), 46, 72 (we traded out 64 to St Kilda).
So 28,42,46,72 = 677+395+331+19 pts = 1,422 pts.
But getting Freo's 2nd Round pick, ie pick 25 gives us another 756 pts = 2178 pts.
If we had to bid pick 10 for Schofield and pick 24 for Jones, the points needed would be
10> 1395 - 20% discount = 1,116 pts and 24 > 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts ie total = 1,704 pts
So we would bid pick 25+28 for Schofield = 756+677 pts = 1,433 pts. 1,116 pts is needed = 317 pts left over.
317 pts generates pick 47.
Then we have to bid pick 24 for Jones - if Schofield was the only bid before pick 24 ( which it wont be) picks 42,46,72 become 41,45,72 and we have just generated pick 47 with Schofield bid.
So bidding at 24 we need 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts total we use
41 = 412 pts, 45 =347 pts total 759 pts - 588 pts need = 171 pts ie pick 58
So we then would have pick 47 reduced by 2 places eliminated = 45, 58 and 72- 2 places eliminated = 70.
So by doing the Freo trade tonight in the example above, we turn Freo 2nd round pick + 28,42,46 and 72 into
Schofield, Jones, 45,58 and 70.
However we might be carrying deficit pts from a Mead matching bid tomorrow and that would affect those picks 45,58 and 70 I calculated above. But there are lots of scenarios how many deficit pts we end up after matching a bid for Mead that its not worth doing any calculations.
So that was the main driver why we did that trade with Freo tonight.
However when you have traded out your first Round pick, the AFL says you have to have a 2nd round pick, so if you trade one out you have to trade one in. By having 2 x 2nd Rd picks in 2020, we have the flexibility to trade 1 of them out if Schofield and/or Jones drop way down the expected draft order say if one of them does an ACL or breaks a leg and the reports aren't great on the recovery, and they slide down 30 spots.
The calculation for the pts lost for tomorrow's draft is that we traded out
pick 52+55 = 246+207 = 453 pts and traded back in pick 66 ie 80 pts.
So the 373 pts lost on that trade is made up next year by getting pick 25 in my example above = 756 pts.
Why would Freo give up net 383 pts?? because by getting 453 pts it lets them bid on McHenry at 9 and have less points carried forward against their 1st rd pick next year as any deficit pts comes of the Rd you match this year. And by being able to bid for McHenry at pick 9 they are saving 20% of 1469 pts ie 295 pts.
So after all that Freo is effectively giving up 88 pts or the equivalent of pick 66 to get a Pick 9 and to also limit how much carry forward negative pts they might have next year against their first Rd pick.
If they have pick 6 next year ( had pick 7 this year because GC pre Rd 1 priority pick) then that pick is worth 1751 pts. If they have 200 deficit pts carried forward then pick 6 becomes pick 8 as that is worth 1551 pts. If they only have 100 deficit pts carried forward then that is 1651 and as pick 7 is worth 1644 pts then they get pick 7 instead of 6, and they can only trade out a pick 7 and not pick 6 to another team.
I don't know for sure but I think the team that had pick 7 originally gets bumped up to replace them at pick 6, but I don't know if that has ever happened to confirm that's how it works.
Anyway, bottom line for Port is that they think Mead will slip more than us footy punters think and they are prepared to carry forward deficit pts next year. My guess would be
55, 60, 61 = 207+146+135 = 488 pts if Mead is bid at 35, then that's 522 pts-197 discount = 325 pts so we carry forward pts into next year not deficit pts. Edit we wouldn't lose pick 61, I was expecting a deficit number to be generated, and that 207+146-325 = 22 pts surplus would generate pick 72 which is 19 pts.
Pick 28 is 677-197 =480 pts so no deficit, and pick 27 is 703-197 = 506 pts, a small deficit. So if we use pick 22 first up tomorrow the most pts deficit we would have to carry forward is pick 23, 815 -197 = 618 -488 pts = 130 pts deficit.
So the guys doing these trades know what they are doing even if it looks strange to us.
fu** I hope someone has written a decent computer program to do these simulations for 2 drafts at the same time.
Hope that makes sense GP?