Game Day 2019 National Draft

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240volt

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 23, 2007
6,747
4,473
Perth
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
This trade is really about 2020. Its a heavily compromised draft with 17 of the top 35-40 players expected to be taken via father son and academy matching bids.

Starting point to remember is that next year we have 2 players we are keen to pick that we can bid on. Father son selection Taj Schofield, son of mid field coach Jarrad and from our Next Generation Academy is Lachlan Jones. Schofield seems to be a in the range of a pick 10-20, and Jones in the range of pick 20-30. Over the next 12 months they could zoom up or drop down the ratings.

We have traded away our 1st Round 2020 pick to Brisbane and we have moved the following before this Freo trade
3rd Rd 2020 IN from St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 OUT to St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 In from GWS received from Adelaide as part of Frampton trade.

So at this stage if the 2020 ladder was the same as 2019, and knowing GC have been given a priority pick at 11, then before this Freo trade, we would have picks (trade out 9 to Brisbane) 28, 42 (from St Kilda), 46, 72 (we traded out 64 to St Kilda).

So 28,42,46,72 = 677+395+331+19 pts = 1,422 pts.
But getting Freo's 2nd Round pick, ie pick 25 gives us another 756 pts = 2178 pts.

If we had to bid pick 10 for Schofield and pick 24 for Jones, the points needed would be
10> 1395 - 20% discount = 1,116 pts and 24 > 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts ie total = 1,704 pts

So we would bid pick 25+28 for Schofield = 756+677 pts = 1,433 pts. 1,116 pts is needed = 317 pts left over.
317 pts generates pick 47.

Then we have to bid pick 24 for Jones - if Schofield was the only bid before pick 24 ( which it wont be) picks 42,46,72 become 41,45,72 and we have just generated pick 47 with Schofield bid.

So bidding at 24 we need 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts total we use
41 = 412 pts, 45 =347 pts total 759 pts - 588 pts need = 171 pts ie pick 58

So we then would have pick 47 reduced by 2 places eliminated = 45, 58 and 72- 2 places eliminated = 70.

So by doing the Freo trade tonight in the example above, we turn Freo 2nd round pick + 28,42,46 and 72 into
Schofield, Jones, 45,58 and 70.

However we might be carrying deficit pts from a Mead matching bid tomorrow and that would affect those picks 45,58 and 70 I calculated above. But there are lots of scenarios how many deficit pts we end up after matching a bid for Mead that its not worth doing any calculations.

So that was the main driver why we did that trade with Freo tonight.

However when you have traded out your first Round pick, the AFL says you have to have a 2nd round pick, so if you trade one out you have to trade one in. By having 2 x 2nd Rd picks in 2020, we have the flexibility to trade 1 of them out if Schofield and/or Jones drop way down the expected draft order say if one of them does an ACL or breaks a leg and the reports aren't great on the recovery, and they slide down 30 spots.

The calculation for the pts lost for tomorrow's draft is that we traded out
pick 52+55 = 246+207 = 453 pts and traded back in pick 66 ie 80 pts.

So the 373 pts lost on that trade is made up next year by getting pick 25 in my example above = 756 pts.

Why would Freo give up net 383 pts?? because by getting 453 pts it lets them bid on McHenry at 9 and have less points carried forward against their 1st rd pick next year as any deficit pts comes of the Rd you match this year. And by being able to bid for McHenry at pick 9 they are saving 20% of 1469 pts ie 295 pts.

So after all that Freo is effectively giving up 88 pts or the equivalent of pick 66 to get a Pick 9 and to also limit how much carry forward negative pts they might have next year against their first Rd pick.

If they have pick 6 next year ( had pick 7 this year because GC pre Rd 1 priority pick) then that pick is worth 1751 pts. If they have 200 deficit pts carried forward then pick 6 becomes pick 8 as that is worth 1551 pts. If they only have 100 deficit pts carried forward then that is 1651 and as pick 7 is worth 1644 pts then they get pick 7 instead of 6, and they can only trade out a pick 7 and not pick 6 to another team.

I don't know for sure but I think the team that had pick 7 originally gets bumped up to replace them at pick 6, but I don't know if that has ever happened to confirm that's how it works.

Anyway, bottom line for Port is that they think Mead will slip more than us footy punters think and they are prepared to carry forward deficit pts next year. My guess would be

55, 60, 61 = 207+146+135 = 488 pts if Mead is bid at 35, then that's 522 pts-197 discount = 325 pts so we carry forward pts into next year not deficit pts. Edit we wouldn't lose pick 61, I was expecting a deficit number to be generated, and that 207+146-325 = 22 pts surplus would generate pick 72 which is 19 pts.

Pick 28 is 677-197 =480 pts so no deficit, and pick 27 is 703-197 = 506 pts, a small deficit. So if we use pick 22 first up tomorrow the most pts deficit we would have to carry forward is pick 23, 815 -197 = 618 -488 pts = 130 pts deficit.

So the guys doing these trades know what they are doing even if it looks strange to us.

fu** I hope someone has written a decent computer program to do these simulations for 2 drafts at the same time.

Hope that makes sense GP?
You lost me at ....This Trade
 

Young Gun #6

Norm Smith Medallist
May 24, 2008
6,246
4,999
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Juventus, Suns
I get that you want smart, good character guys. But boy if Kemp becomes a star or is a lot better than Bergman we’ll be regretting that for years to come.

Especially when he was on the board and we pick another tall mid. Not like we can say oh we didn’t need him we went a KPP or anything.

This has 10 years of regret all over it.
 

Ian Jackson

Team Captain
Mar 5, 2014
521
451
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Arsenal
I had to read it three times, but ultimately it indeed made sense!

We've traded:
- with Saints and Lions for two extra top picks this season;
- with Freo to recover losses in next year's draft (i.e., for Schofield and Jones); and
- with Carlton so we could get Mead in this draft.

Thank you very much.
thanks for that readable summary!
 
Jun 11, 2019
252
345
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I get that you want smart, good character guys. But boy if Kemp becomes a star or is a lot better than Bergman we’ll be regretting that for years to come.

Especially when he was on the board and we pick another tall mid. Not like we can say oh we didn’t need him we went a KPP or anything.

This has 10 years of regret all over it.
We didn't pick Bergman to play midfield though. We've chosen him to play that Rozee/jaidyn Stephenson role up forward.

This is all about not repeating the mistakes we made with Boak and Gray and being forced to play them forward instead of in the middle because we had no decent forwards. Rozee will play midfield, Bergman will play forward.
 

OneGreatClub

Hall of Famer
Nov 6, 2014
36,852
40,356
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I get that you want smart, good character guys. But boy if Kemp becomes a star or is a lot better than Bergman we’ll be regretting that for years to come.

Especially when he was on the board and we pick another tall mid. Not like we can say oh we didn’t need him we went a KPP or anything.

This has 10 years of regret all over it.
Isn’t that the same with every pick apart from the top
2 this year?
 

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Malibu#27

Premium Platinum
Feb 25, 2002
13,899
8,759
Barossa Valley
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Port Magpies, Redbacks
(we had one of the picks after ours)
A fair point.

Maybe it points to the thought that one of the picks before our next pick was interested.

Port Adelaide will consider calling his name as early as pick No.18, while Richmond (pick No.19), Brisbane (pick No.21) and Geelong (pick No.24) are also monitoring the mobile forward's availability.
There's two clubs rumoured to have interest, with picks between 18 and our next pick.

The other thought could be that pick 22 is still very much in play in terms of being traded down a few picks. I suspect theres a few clubs trying to offer us stuff .... but we can't be stupid there, if we trade down too far, we lose the free hit at Mead.
 

AdamMarrett

Club Legend
May 9, 2014
1,492
2,533
Perth
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If you said 2 hours ago we could walk out tonight with Bergman, Kemp & Robertson I would have died! How can our recruitment department do this!
Just a novel idea, I know it's not in vogue as we are all meant to be criticizing the club non stop but there maybe a reason 17 other clubs have passed up the kid or kids everyone is raving about. I'll back our recruiters in on the two picks and the trades with picks we've made. We've got Bergman who looks like exactly what we need, and we needed another forward drafted onto the list, which this board was screaming for, and the kid is highly rated. Let it all settle before burning the house down. I know that's not the in thing on here.

Also we have Schofield in next year, and the academy kid, I forget his name in a compromised draft so our first rounder is worth nothing next year, I'd hazard a guess the club's list management team know that as well.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
12,966
14,145
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
A fair point.

Maybe it points to the thought that one of the picks before our next pick was interested.


There's two clubs rumoured to have interest, with picks between 18 and our next pick.

The other thought could be that pick 22 is still very much in play in terms of being traded down a few picks. I suspect theres a few clubs trying to offer us stuff .... but we can't be stupid there, if we trade down too far, we lose the free hit at Mead.
This guy screams Stephen Wells special I think we would have been worried that he'd been linked there as well.
 

VineValerian

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2014
2,845
3,289
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Man Utd, Celtic, Tanunda
This trade is really about 2020. Its a heavily compromised draft with 17 of the top 35-40 players expected to be taken via father son and academy matching bids.

Starting point to remember is that next year we have 2 players we are keen to pick that we can bid on. Father son selection Taj Schofield, son of mid field coach Jarrad and from our Next Generation Academy is Lachlan Jones. Schofield seems to be a in the range of a pick 10-20, and Jones in the range of pick 20-30. Over the next 12 months they could zoom up or drop down the ratings.

We have traded away our 1st Round 2020 pick to Brisbane and we have moved the following before this Freo trade
3rd Rd 2020 IN from St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 OUT to St Kilda as part of Ryder and Howard Trade
4th Rd 2020 In from GWS received from Adelaide as part of Frampton trade.

So at this stage if the 2020 ladder was the same as 2019, and knowing GC have been given a priority pick at 11, then before this Freo trade, we would have picks (trade out 9 to Brisbane) 28, 42 (from St Kilda), 46, 72 (we traded out 64 to St Kilda).

So 28,42,46,72 = 677+395+331+19 pts = 1,422 pts.
But getting Freo's 2nd Round pick, ie pick 25 gives us another 756 pts = 2178 pts.

If we had to bid pick 10 for Schofield and pick 24 for Jones, the points needed would be
10> 1395 - 20% discount = 1,116 pts and 24 > 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts ie total = 1,704 pts

So we would bid pick 25+28 for Schofield = 756+677 pts = 1,433 pts. 1,116 pts is needed = 317 pts left over.
317 pts generates pick 47.

Then we have to bid pick 24 for Jones - if Schofield was the only bid before pick 24 ( which it wont be) picks 42,46,72 become 41,45,72 and we have just generated pick 47 with Schofield bid.

So bidding at 24 we need 785 pts -197 pts discount = 588 pts total we use
41 = 412 pts, 45 =347 pts total 759 pts - 588 pts need = 171 pts ie pick 58

So we then would have pick 47 reduced by 2 places eliminated = 45, 58 and 72- 2 places eliminated = 70.

So by doing the Freo trade tonight in the example above, we turn Freo 2nd round pick + 28,42,46 and 72 into
Schofield, Jones, 45,58 and 70.

However we might be carrying deficit pts from a Mead matching bid tomorrow and that would affect those picks 45,58 and 70 I calculated above. But there are lots of scenarios how many deficit pts we end up after matching a bid for Mead that its not worth doing any calculations.

So that was the main driver why we did that trade with Freo tonight.

However when you have traded out your first Round pick, the AFL says you have to have a 2nd round pick, so if you trade one out you have to trade one in. By having 2 x 2nd Rd picks in 2020, we have the flexibility to trade 1 of them out if Schofield and/or Jones drop way down the expected draft order say if one of them does an ACL or breaks a leg and the reports aren't great on the recovery, and they slide down 30 spots.

The calculation for the pts lost for tomorrow's draft is that we traded out
pick 52+55 = 246+207 = 453 pts and traded back in pick 66 ie 80 pts.

So the 373 pts lost on that trade is made up next year by getting pick 25 in my example above = 756 pts.

Why would Freo give up net 383 pts?? because by getting 453 pts it lets them bid on McHenry at 9 and have less points carried forward against their 1st rd pick next year as any deficit pts comes of the Rd you match this year. And by being able to bid for McHenry at pick 9 they are saving 20% of 1469 pts ie 295 pts.

So after all that Freo is effectively giving up 88 pts or the equivalent of pick 66 to get a Pick 9 and to also limit how much carry forward negative pts they might have next year against their first Rd pick.

If they have pick 6 next year ( had pick 7 this year because GC pre Rd 1 priority pick) then that pick is worth 1751 pts. If they have 200 deficit pts carried forward then pick 6 becomes pick 8 as that is worth 1551 pts. If they only have 100 deficit pts carried forward then that is 1651 and as pick 7 is worth 1644 pts then they get pick 7 instead of 6, and they can only trade out a pick 7 and not pick 6 to another team.

I don't know for sure but I think the team that had pick 7 originally gets bumped up to replace them at pick 6, but I don't know if that has ever happened to confirm that's how it works.

Anyway, bottom line for Port is that they think Mead will slip more than us footy punters think and they are prepared to carry forward deficit pts next year. My guess would be

55, 60, 61 = 207+146+135 = 488 pts if Mead is bid at 35, then that's 522 pts-197 discount = 325 pts so we carry forward pts into next year not deficit pts. Edit we wouldn't lose pick 61, I was expecting a deficit number to be generated, and that 207+146-325 = 22 pts surplus would generate pick 72 which is 19 pts.

Pick 28 is 677-197 =480 pts so no deficit, and pick 27 is 703-197 = 506 pts, a small deficit. So if we use pick 22 first up tomorrow the most pts deficit we would have to carry forward is pick 23, 815 -197 = 618 -488 pts = 130 pts deficit.

So the guys doing these trades know what they are doing even if it looks strange to us.

fu** I hope someone has written a decent computer program to do these simulations for 2 drafts at the same time.

Hope that makes sense GP?
I'm afraid you will need to go into far more detail - this explanation is superficial in the extreme :oops::tongueclosed:
 

Windy Cindy

Team Captain
May 16, 2019
415
1,020
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Dunno, he had an interview on SA's SEN and said he didnt follow either SA team and dreamt of playing most of his games at the MCG

He gets that with melbourne.
yeah i heard that interview and they did ask about kicking your first goal on the mcg. Must have been common knowledge, im disappointed we didnt trade up, reckon we have missed a beauty.

fu** you melb
 

OneGreatClub

Hall of Famer
Nov 6, 2014
36,852
40,356
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Perhaps some of the recruiters decisions are starting to make a bit of sense at least now? We would get who we wanted around our current picks anyway and Doogs would have trouble fitting into our new forward structure going forward? Plus looking at next year a pick in the first round might be eaten up by other clubs bidding on our fs and academy players anyway?
 

BrockBlitz

Club Legend
Apr 19, 2013
1,713
1,957
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Maybe, but at 191cm and coming off a severe injury it’s not like there aren’t red flags to go with the fact it’s obviously a reach.
Injury isn't that bad. It doesnt effect you long term like an ACL or something like that. Think of it more like he took a gap year from footy.
 

Butters Made Me Do It

secretly Portia, ssh
Mar 16, 2019
3,543
18,574
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Port Adelaide Social Club
Injury isn't that bad. It doesnt effect you long term like an ACL or something like that. Think of it more like he took a gap year from footy.
yeah its a freak injury and we have the surety of his combine results to know its recoverable. Biggest query now is if he has the footy brain to play AFL because its not been exposed at a significant level. u
 

Rendaw

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2016
1,184
1,994
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
LA Lakers, Anaheim Ducks, LA Rams
I'm happy with our draft so far. The pick numbers are irrelevant it's the players you end up with that matter.

Bergman looks decent and has x factor which I love. My concern is his kicking which looks to need some improvement or at least some hamstring stretching judging by this photo.
images.jpeg
 

jiahy004

Senior List
Oct 21, 2017
298
305
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I hope we can turn our pick 22 to two picks 20s or early 30s..

Don’t think we will take another forward so no Williams, no Taylor.. I hope we can take Gould or worrell, and sharp, plus Mead, I’m happy.
 

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