Qld 2020 Queensland Election - October 31

[Caesar]

Who says they have?

The booth patterns seem to suggest that ON went to Labor and Labor voters went to Greens. Mostly.

Some electorates will have also had an element of ON -> LNP -> ALP swings. However if voters abandoned ON because of their opposition to border closures (as a lot of the analysis seems to hypothesise) it’s probably unlikely they went to the LNP. Frecklington’s position on that front wasn’t exactly inspiring.

 

[Generalissimo]

I'm floored that One Nation voters have flocked to Labor and the Greens. Any reason for that?

It's not clear that they have. I think it's just as likely that the swing was primarily from the LNP to Labor, and from ON evenly between LNP and Labor.

That said, I think it's silly to just assume ON will automatically flock to the LNP if they're not voting ON. There is a difference between a racist bogan and a private school toff and they're not necessarily natural allies.

 

[NSWCROW]

That was Gough face during last federal election count!

Good god man you've got a bigger jones for that guy than trump does for fat racks !

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[Van_Dyke]

I feel like these sorts of predictions are always overstated. Like when Campbell Newman wiped out Labor 'for a generation'...

this, this very QLD government went from having 8 seats to being in government in one election. those predictions are a waste of time

 

[Demonic Ascent]

It's not clear that they have. I think it's just as likely that the swing was primarily from the LNP to Labor, and from ON evenly between LNP and Labor.

That said, I think it's silly to just assume ON will automatically flock to the LNP if they're not voting ON. There is a difference between a racist bogan and a private school toff and they're not necessarily natural allies.

No matter how much the private school toffs try to woo the racist bogans....

 

[Gough]

No matter how much the private school toffs try to woo the racist bogans....

The gap between private school toff and racist bogan isn't as large as you'd imagine.

 

[Caesar]

The gap between private school toff and racist bogan isn't as large as you'd imagine.

We’re all a bit closer to each other than any of us would like to think

 

[Austoraisetheurn]

I pretty much called the election spot on.

I said the ALP would gain seats and it appears they have and comprehensively so.

The LNP's period in gov here from 2012 to early 2015 was an utter disgrace. Full of hubris and ego.

Still leaves an indelible mark on the psyche of all who lived here in Qld during that period.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

FJ wailed and hollered about how poor maligned Jackie Trad was vital to Labor winning the election, and his Common Troll Brigade answered the call with several nasty attacks on the opposing Greens campaign. But it was all hogwash from start to finish, the election was won in Townsville, Cairns and the Sunshine Coast, not South Brisbane. And predictably, a shameless self-promoter like FJ is acting like a fly on the coach-wheel, pretending he and his groupies were the deciding factor.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

FJ is secretly a young liberal, he will go the same way as Latham

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Future Labor Leader if not PM imo

Are you serious? That glass-jawed loon? It'll be a sad day for Labor if they ever elect her leader.

The LNP's period in gov here from 2012 to early 2015 was an utter disgrace. Full of hubris and ego.

Still leaves an indelible mark on the psyche of all who lived here in Qld during that period.

I don't disagree, it's just that the Abbott government had even more hubris and ego, and yet it never stopped the nation, or Queensland, from voting for federal Coalition governments since then. Shouldn't that have made an indelible mark on the psyche?

FJ is secretly a young liberal, he will go the same way as Latham

You can already see it beginning from the way he sneers at the unemployed.

 

[DaRick]

I don't disagree, it's just that the Abbott government had even more hubris and ego, and yet it never stopped the nation, or Queensland, from voting for federal Coalition governments since then. Shouldn't that have made an indelible mark on the psyche?

Abbott was in charge for 2 years; Newman was in charge for 3.

Newman's damage to QLD was also more obvious than Abbott's (not denying that the latter was damaging).

Also, the federal LNP had the good sense to replace Abbott with Turnbull.

Turnbull was widely disliked outside Brisbane, but I don't think he was on the nose in QLD like Abbott was. Also, Bill Shorten.

For mine, Newman is the worst QLD Premier ever. Yes, worse than Borbidge. Yes, worse than Joh.

He would also probably be among the worst Australian Premiers ever, right down there with Brian Burke (Kram to confirm).

 

[NSWCROW]

Are you serious? That glass-jawed loon? It'll be a sad day for Labor if they ever elect her leader.

You almost convinced me but the bolded killed it.

 

[NSWCROW]

The LNP's period in gov here from 2012 to early 2015 was an utter disgrace. Full of hubris and ego.

Look at who the pm was for most of that , no surprise the s**t trickled down.

 

[DaRick]

Look at who the pm was for most of that , no surprise the sh*t trickled down.

Yeah, Abbott and Newman were apparently besties.

I mean, I can see the value in associating with someone like Abbott, if you want a quick and easy source of comic relief - but actually taking him seriously is a different matter.

 

[Caesar]

No way was Newman worse than Joh.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You almost convinced me but the bolded killed it.

Why, are you a Labor Party shill? Or Terri's best mate?

 

[DaRick]

No way was Newman worse than Joh.

I put Newman just below Joh because I can actually think of a couple of positives of Joh's reign - infrastructure and economic development. Plus as much as it makes me retch in his case, longevity does count for something when assessing leaders (I know, I know, Bjelkemander).

Pretty much everything else Joh did was IMO negative or at best dubious, but I can't think of a single positive thing Newman did.

Borbidge's government was poor, but he wasn't really damaging like Newman was.

 

[Van_Dyke]

You can already see it beginning from the way he sneers at the unemployed.

or what he said about the uyghurs the other week as well.

 

[NSWCROW]

Why, are you a Labor Party shill? Or Terri's best mate?

Neither.

Just out of all the things you could've called her , it struck me as weird that you'd use THAT.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Neither.

Just out of all the things you could've called her , it struck me as weird that you'd use THAT.

Given I didn't write much else about her, I find it very strange that you'd say I almost convinced you. Was that actually true or a figure of speech?

 

[DaRick]

All the main candidates are rehashed losers.

View attachment 1001259

Everyone here is either a Newman government minister or a former leader or deputy leader, except Janetzki and Purdie who are rank outsiders. The rehashed losers are the ones running everything.

From what I can tell, the best of these would likely be Crisafulli, and even then I would have quite a few reservations.

Crisafulli is in charge of an electorate that is mostly urban, but he has a regional background (and I've heard mixed sentiments about his time up north). The question here is, does he come off as sufficiently liberal and urbane (ala Newman/Borbidge), or does he betray his FNQ origins? If it's the latter, then I don't see how he wins the next election.

I thought that Mander would have been a better choice because he does legitimately have an urban background, but then I heard that while he comes off as a good bloke in person, he was also an active opponent of SSM, which would probably not endear him to the broadly pro-SSM Brisbane. Plus his overt religiosity likely would put him out of step with Brisbane on many other social issues. Crisafulli doesn't really have that baggage.

If the LNP are dumb enough to elect that twat Bleijie as leader, then they deserve to be in the wilderness forever.

Powell, Janetzki, Purdie and Simpson are unelectable, because none of them are urban candidates. Plus Purdie is apparently a good buddy of Peter Dutton's, which gives me a possible insight into his views and would encourage me to steer clear of him normally.

Langbroek I have mixed feelings about. He would be considered an urban candidate (ironically in charge of Borbidge's old electorate), he was competitive with Bligh for a little while during his reign, and he's not an overt social conservative like Mander, but his social views are a bit wishy-washy. I'd probably choose him over Mander because I think his social views have less potential to alienate and he wasn't awful previously, but would he be able to win Brisbane over? I'm not convinced. He would have been more competitive than someone like Frecklington, and he is probably urbane enough, but does he have Borbidge's aggression, timing and ability to harness anger while playing the underdog? Does he have Newman's proactive, winning style (as it appeared back in 2012)? I'm not convinced.

 

[NSWCROW]

Given I didn't write much else about her, I find it very strange that you'd say I almost convinced you. Was that actually true or a figure of speech?

It was just something i threw in there to form a sentence

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It was just something i threw in there to form a sentence

Okay. Well now that you've copped to writing things you don't mean, Butler is a member of the Labor outrage brigade, wheeled out as needed to fire vitriolic broadsides at whichever electoral threat they face any particular week. Her and Di Farmer dogpiling Amy McMahon's volunteers to damage her campaign was truly dirty politics, and shows that several Labor Party figures can't take criticism without painting themselves as the victim.