NFL 2021 NFL - Week 2

[LittleG]

If you have 95% of kicking the 1 and only 48% of getting the 2. Or roughly that. It would seem on face value that if you always go for 2 against a team always kicks the 1, that, like heads and tails, eventually, both teams would be tied on the same score after say 4 TDs or 10 TDs each.

But i am sure that the 48-50% isnt pure. Some teams have better weapons, some teams have days when their 3rd and short and 4th and 1 fail more than succeed.

It would make more sense to always kick the 1, and only go for 2 the times your kicker misses the pat, or times and situations in the game, when you need to get the score back to lots of 7, or behind 11, give yourself a chance to kick a FG to tie than to rely on a more difficult to score last second TD, and such

Actually 0.48+0.48 is 0.96, which is greater than 0.95. The math tells you to take the 2 and not the 1.
BUT I wouldn’t do it for a 1% increase. For a 8-10% increase, sure.

The thing about taking the 2 or not, is that it is situational and you shouldn’t always take the 2. Take the 1 BUT be ready to take the 2 when it will give you the greatest increase in winning percentage, which at 17-9, it’s one of those occasions.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Some teams have guys like Tucker and Butker. Some teams have very unreliable kickers. Theres a lot more variances, game and time situations etc that ought to be modeled in. The presumptive overly simplified chart AAFL was posting doesnt take all the variances in, and thats why his stance would change if he had a far more complex model at his disposal. Because he would then argue that kicking the 1 at 17-9 is smarter (if he had that very complex model ibstead of the very simple one).

 

[Exe Gesis]

Actually 0.48+0.48 is 0.96, which is greater than 0.95. The math tells you to take the 2 and not the 1.

Jake Elliotts PAT percentage last four years is 93.6

The Eagles 2 pt conversion rate in 2020 was 37%

Not all teams are equal. The math is more broad generic league wide. Wheres the team specific data for the Eagles in particular? What about percentage of 2 pt success versus the Niners per se by all league teams? Etc.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Thus my argument in a nutshell. A team cannot use geberic league wide data and apply it to themselves. The question should be what do the Eagles do in that situation.....and then providing us the eagles data for 1s vs 2s last year, last four years, data all teams against the niners, also specific game situation time on clock and, eagles success rate today vs the Niners on 3rd and short and 4th and short conversions as a guide to trying to convert a 2 pt play (3rd and 2 or 4th and 2 situation).

 

[Exe Gesis]

 

[Exe Gesis]

 

[Exe Gesis]

 

[Exe Gesis]

Interception kings....

Xavien Howard 19 INTs in 35 games since 2018.

JC Jackson 19 INTS in 47 games since 2018

 

[AmericanCrow]

 

[AmericanCrow]

Game ball winner for the Browns yesterday:

 

[AmericanCrow]

How that guy has a job after yesterday’s performance is beyond me

 

[AmericanAFL]

Thus my argument in a nutshell. A team cannot use geberic league wide data and apply it to themselves. The question should be what do the Eagles do in that situation.....and then providing us the eagles data for 1s vs 2s last year, last four years, data all teams against the niners, also specific game situation time on clock and, eagles success rate today vs the Niners on 3rd and short and 4th and short conversions as a guide to trying to convert a 2 pt play (3rd and 2 or 4th and 2 situation).

First attempt at a logical argument I’ve seen here. You want to tell me you think the success rate given the teams in question is significantly lower than 50%, then that’s fine. Kicking the XP would be wise.

But looking at last years Eagles success rate is pretty much useless given important changes in personnel and coaching staff.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Jake Elliotts PAT percentage last four years is 93.6

The Eagles 2 pt conversion rate in 2020 was 37%

Not all teams are equal. The math is more broad generic league wide. Wheres the team specific data for the Eagles in particular? What about percentage of 2 pt success versus the Niners per se by all league teams? Etc.

excellent points

imagine that, lets go with the analytics handbook even tho IRL going for two says we are 2.5x less likely to convert. smh.

 

[AmericanAFL]

excellent points

imagine that, lets go with the analytics handbook even tho IRL going for two says we are 2.5x less likely to convert. smh.

Yea let’s base our strategy off how Carson wentz and Doug Pederson fared last year. Makes total sense.

 

[AmericanAFL]

The hilarious thing is, even at 37%, it’s still basically the same odds as kicking the XP.

Excellent points indeed.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Yea let’s base our strategy off how Carson wentz and Doug Pederson fared last year. Makes total sense.

Doug Pederson , the same guy who used analytics heavily....riiiiiiiigggggght. Youre countering your own argument. another, self pwned

 

[AmericanAFL]

Doug Pederson , the same guy who used analytics heavily....riiiiiiiigggggght. Youre countering your own argument. another, self pwned

Using analytics has no bearing on how successful the team was executing on the field or in two point plays. I actually hope you’re just being willfully dense.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Saints being above us after that ass whooping is an insult. I think we are about right at #15 , they should be lower tho

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Using analytics has no bearing on how successful the team was executing on the field or in two point plays. I actually hope you’re just being willfully dense.

Cause Nick Siriani has such a fantastic amount of data before yesterday to show hes a proven commodity. Lets automatically give him the league average or better for the lols.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Cause Nick Siriani has such a fantastic amount of data before yesterday to show hes a proven commodity. Lets automatically give him the league average or better for the lols.

“I don’t think the coach is good enough to achieve the league average” is actually a decent argument. Your best yet to be honest.

But given that they’re 50/50 to win the game if they only actually are able to convert at about 38%, he doesn’t even need to achieve the league average for it to be the right play.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I dont want to this get spiteful AmericanAFL I like you a lot, lets agree to disagree and call Ita morning/evening... carn the dees.

 

[AmericanAFL]

I dont want to this get spiteful AmericanAFL I like you a lot, lets agree to disagree and call Ita morning/evening... carn the dees.

All love brother.

Matt Rhule doing business- happy for you.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

All love brother.

Matt Rhule doing business- happy for you.

Phil Snow is who has impressed me most out of all the coaching staff, frail old man who's never DC'd an NFL defense before last year, I love that man

 

[Brasher]

Woke up this morning to catch up on the extravaganza of overnight posting to realize my picture of a unicorn colouring book has rightly earned an #EncouragementAward nomination.

It's also been the most insightful post since then.

Cool the jets on this maths stuff. If it's all about maths then explain this....

If a team rushes for an average of 3.6 yards per attempt then why not just rush on every down, never punt, using maths you would score (painfully) on every drive.

 

[LittleG]

Woke up this morning to catch up on the extravaganza of overnight posting to realize my picture of a unicorn colouring book has rightly earned an #EncouragementAward nomination.

It's also been the most insightful post since then.

Cool the jets on this maths stuff. If it's all about maths then explain this....

If a team rushes for an average of 3.6 yards per attempt then why not just rush on every down, never punt, using maths you would score (painfully) on every drive.

Average isn’t the number you need to make that decision.



But we should choose to not get into the analytics of that long rabbit hole.